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AUD/USD

  • #72,461
  • Feb 10, 2014 9:52pm Feb 10, 2014 9:52pm
To be real... I took the wrong AUD trade

I should have shorted GBP/AUD and actually made something.
A bit late now but there's always another trade.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,462
  • Feb 10, 2014 9:55pm Feb 10, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
To be real... I took the wrong AUD trade I should have shorted GBP/AUD and actually made something. A bit late now but there's always another trade.
it's not too late haha GA target is 1.75xx for a LT trade (may not be so long term after the next few days)
choo choo train
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  • #72,463
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:00pm Feb 10, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} it's not too late haha GA target is 1.75xx for a LT trade choo choo train {image}
I'll jump on it if you will. How 'bout it ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,464
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:01pm Feb 10, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} I'll jump on it if you will. How 'bout it ?
I'm waiting for ldn open
  • #72,465
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:04pm Feb 10, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I'm waiting for ldn open
ok....... never mind then
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,466
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:06pm Feb 10, 2014 10:06pm
AUD @ .9010

USD longs seem to be Yellen and screamin

Have Asia got ahead of themselves again ?

Europe has an uncanny knack of calling Asia's bluff.

Yellen's speech .. who knows .. she is meant to be a dove ... not all doves are on peace missions

Good luck
  • #72,467
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:07pm Feb 10, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} ok....... never mind then
For me I just prefer to trade closer to the hourly pivots so I know I'm getting my money's worth
. There's no sense getting in when nothing's going on far from the TWAP and the algos move it in your face unless it's just a cheeky small size quick scalp
if indeed this is the best possible price to get in we'll know soon enough
  • #72,468
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:16pm Feb 10, 2014 10:16pm
Quoting tony95
At this point we might as well go to parity
and what exactly makes you so say that? Fundamentally, nothing has changed for the Aussie.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #72,469
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:26pm Feb 10, 2014 10:26pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} Fundamentally, nothing has changed for the Aussie.
I disagree atm.... read as... central bank notations.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,470
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:34pm Feb 10, 2014 10:34pm
"doves aren't always on peace missions" -- but you never sell the rumor, you always buy the rumor... and only sometimes sell the fact. the fact that AUD data is coming up the very next day is a double whammy so you probably should be buying the rumor and buying the fact
"no fundamentals have changed for the AUD" -- disagree for obvious reasons post RBA-rally, and strong biz confidence possibly spilling over to employment
the last time we traded above the daily pivot was the other time when we topped at 0.9087 and everyone shot themselves in the foot trying to fade the subsequent hammer lower through last month's employment before AJ got wiped down to 8850 and AU got wiped at 8650. Then people tried to go short at the lows and got wiped again by the RBA.
Now this time we're firmly bullish already 6 conseuctive days closing above the daily pivot, AC looking at a break of the monthly pivot, AJ banging on the weekly pivot, EA/GA both have LT targets lower, and people are looking for AUD shorts again before higher stops get taken out. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but I guess it's a zero-sum game, somebody has to lose...
  • #72,471
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:44pm Feb 10, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, ...
You could read this............. it seems to make some sense

"The Australian dollar quickly went from being a very unattractive investment, to being the strongest performer against the US dollar in the last two weeks amongst its G10 counterparts. AUDUSD has risen around 2.35% over that period, backed by some almost hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and positive economic data. This isn’t surprising considering that so much of the Aussie’s prior weakness was built upon the notion that the RBA would remain in a dovish stance for a while longer. As we have explained previously, the removal of the RBA’s dovish bias, combined with a positive turn in investor sentiment, created the perfect recipe for AUD strength. Positive Australian economic data further supported the commodity currency.
Last week we highlighted the possibility that AUDJPY may be a big beneficiary of this board AUD strength. JPY lost its attractiveness as investors became less concerned about a possible crisis in emerging markets, which saw the yen lose some ground towards the end of last week. Furthermore, the market quickly shrugged of worse than expected NFP numbers, which had initially hit USD and increased demand for the safe haven yen. This helped push AUDJPY through a key resistance zone and on towards 91.90.
Looking ahead, we can continue to see AUDJPY power ahead in the long-term, but the Aussie’s near-term future may depend on the outcome this week’s Australian employment report, as well as business confidence figures.


http://www.forex.com/post?SDN=bac2ab...3-11d4a0f9a8c2
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,472
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:48pm Feb 10, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} You could read this............. it seems to make some sense "The Australian dollar quickly went from being a very unattractive investment, to being the strongest performer against the US dollar in the last two weeks amongst its G10 counterparts. AUDUSD has risen around 2.35% over that period, backed by some almost hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and positive economic data. This isn’t surprising considering that so much of the Aussie’s prior weakness was built upon the notion that the RBA would remain in a dovish...
Sorry, so why would you *sell* AUD based on this? We've already had a strong biz confidence report, no institutional participant is going to bet on a weak employment report. A retail hail-mary type might.
  • #72,473
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:54pm Feb 10, 2014 10:54pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Sorry, so why would you *sell* AUD based on this? We've already had a strong biz confidence report, no institutional participant is going to bet on a weak employment report. A retail hail-mary type might.
I don't understand............. I'm still long AUD
Are you lost ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,474
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:58pm Feb 10, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} I don't understand............. I'm still long AUD Are you lost ?
No I'm not lost, I know you're long, I was being skeptical about whether some of the bearish sentiments expressed here really make any sense but then you seemed to post something that agreed with what I was saying. Anyway, whatever.
I think alll the relevant points have been made, people should do as they wish.
  • #72,475
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:13pm Feb 10, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} No I'm not lost, I know you're long, I was being skeptical about whether some of the bearish sentiments expressed here really make any sense but then you seemed to post something that agreed with what I was saying. Anyway, whatever. I think alll the relevant points have been made, people should do as they wish.
Sorry......... I'm so accustomed to being attacked (mostly my own fault) that I tend to prepare in advance
for that.
And you're right. Traders should do as they wish

Regards
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,476
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:16pm Feb 10, 2014 11:16pm
I shorted some Oz, but I am alos holding AJ, I bought literally right before the news explosion, it was definitely priced in already before the news even came out you could see it all over the charts
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #72,477
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:28pm Feb 10, 2014 11:28pm
hearing sizeable stops below .8985 in OZ now
  • #72,478
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:44pm Feb 10, 2014 11:44pm
For now, Long AUDUSD since RBA changed to a Neutral Stance, shall target 0.9050 for a start.

Nonetheless, need to listen up for Fed Janet Yellen's statement for further cues on the USD as well.

Cheers
  • #72,479
  • Edited 12:56am Feb 11, 2014 12:16am | Edited 12:56am
Quoting lasty
hearing sizeable stops below .8985 in OZ now
we just had stops (stop-ins) above 0.9000. what kinds of names are stopping out at 8985? makes no sense. and if they do, all the better because it's just another opportunity to buy
  • #72,480
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:36am Feb 11, 2014 1:36am
Do not follow my lead... do not...

I am 4 x staggered short for long term trade <months>, reasoning = Slim is long (Kidding Slim).
Long term forecasters are still predicting the AUD will drop, with some extremists saying a 6 handle (.6xxx), so I have put in a 7 handle tp as a place holder, this will most likely be modified as the game changes. So whilst I play with small lots scalping I have some long term positions in with a healthy margin. AUD traders still allow hedging positions.. woot (read yippee)

be warned.. when I go to the horse racing track I say to myself "I like the colour of the bandage on that horse, $100 down for a win please"
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
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