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AUD/USD

  • #72,441
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:41am Feb 10, 2014 11:41am
Quoting Siam
Just found out about this. More doom and gloom for the Australian economy as Toyota are due to cease production there. Tokyo - Toyota said Monday it would stop making cars in Australia in a move that would leave the country with no auto manufacturing, despite appeals by Prime Minister Tony Abbott. The Japanese auto giant, the world’s biggest vehicle maker, said production of vehicles and engines would stop at the end of 2017, throwing into doubt 3,900 jobs at its Altona plant in a Melbourne suburb and another 150 jobs at a separate design facility....

Toyota's decision follows the planned exits of General Motors (GM.N) and Ford Motor (F.N) announced last year and would leave no global automaker remaining in Australia as high costs and a strong currency make it an unattractive production base.
"We did everything that we could to transform our business, but the reality is that there are too many factors beyond our control that make it unviable to build cars in Australia," Toyota Australia President Max Yasuda said in a statement.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1906720140210

Of course in a sense this cements the thesis that the bear is not yet done on the downside, but one must also be wary of countertrend moves that can become quite extended for quite some length of time. Furthermore there is also the theory that a lot of this is already in the price. I would have thought though, that that is not quite the case.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #72,442
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:06pm Feb 10, 2014 7:06pm
Short scalp AU 9010
  • #72,443
  • Edited 7:40pm Feb 10, 2014 7:23pm | Edited 7:40pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
Short scalp AU 9010
BE stop out, offering again at 20, it could be right to hold the scalp at 10. I just don't feel like fighting this. It's a very tricky move with USDCAD also getting stopped out *the other way* and EU getting stopped out *the same way*. a lot of bad positions that people are covering presumably. I don't fully understand all the dynamics so I'm out, plus AUD employment on Wednesday and 9070 is going to go anyway

I'll probably buy a dip instead but needs a lot more time to settle. maybe london session
  • #72,444
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:44pm Feb 10, 2014 7:44pm
At this point we might as well go to parity
  • #72,445
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:58pm Feb 10, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} BE stop out, offering again at 20, it could be right to hold the scalp at 10. I just don't feel like fighting this. It's a very tricky move with USDCAD also getting stopped out *the other way* and EU getting stopped out *the same way*. a lot of bad positions that people are covering presumably. I don't fully understand all the dynamics so I'm out, plus AUD employment on Wednesday and 9070 is going to go anyway I'll probably buy a dip instead but needs a lot more time to settle. maybe london session
anyway, had I still had the scalp I would have covered here at 90-96ish, moot point
  • #72,446
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:01pm Feb 10, 2014 8:01pm
Aussie has a min. target of 0.921x. I am patiently waiting to short up there.

Right now bulls would love an H close above 90.
  • #72,447
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:06pm Feb 10, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting diggo
Aussie has a min. target of 0.921x. I am patiently waiting to short up there. Right now bulls would love an H close above 90.
a lot of it is also driven by a "lack of time left" before the big number of wednesday, so at this point people just want to buy any price until 9100 gets taken out. you'd never bet that the employment number would come out "so bad" such that 9100 would miss.
any significant pull back seems unlikely before wednesday since then this whole move was a moot point and they'd have to go through all the effort of buying it up again on wednesday
i would like to see some consolidation (not just going to blindly pay the highs, wait until the hourly pivots move higher), but whatever happens by the wed number if we're still not through i'm going to be long
  • #72,448
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:20pm Feb 10, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} a lot of it is also driven by a "lack of time left" before the big number of wednesday, so at this point people just want to buy any price until 9100 gets taken out. you'd never bet that the employment number would come out "so bad" such that 9100 would miss. any significant pull back seems unlikely before wednesday since then this whole move was a moot point and they'd have to go through all the effort of buying it up again on wednesday i would like to see some consolidation (not just going to blindly pay the highs, wait until the hourly...
OK long scalp at 94
  • #72,449
  • Edited 8:40pm Feb 10, 2014 8:21pm | Edited 8:40pm
d
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,450
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:22pm Feb 10, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} a lot of it is also driven by a "lack of time left" before the big number of wednesday, so at this point people just want to buy any price until 9100 gets taken out. you'd never bet that the employment number would come out "so bad" such that 9100 would miss. any significant pull back seems unlikely before wednesday since then this whole move was a moot point and they'd have to go through all the effort of buying it up again on wednesday i would like to see some consolidation, but whatever happens by the wed number if we're still not through...
The way I see it, the big bears need the 921x to regroup, and gain some momentum for a stronger push lower. it is a magnet that will continue to pull. Like you say, the employment numbers will have to be pretty horrible to slow the bulls down. They just need a close above 90 to confirm take off. I will continue to watch from the sidelines until we get above 92. Later..
  • #72,451
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:30pm Feb 10, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} While you're talking short scalp, then "moot pointing", then waiting for consolidation.... I'll hold for just a minute to see what happens. {image}
Wise words. However my scalp is still based on the view that this pull back here is going to run out of steam pretty quickly. What are the chances that this move gets hammered down given the fundamental threat on Wednesday? (My sense is that it makes the move very resilient, you aren't gonna find any sellers, it's already a Tokyo holiday). Anyway, moving stop to BE again. If it doesn't go my way immediately, I want out
  • #72,452
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:34pm Feb 10, 2014 8:34pm
Well fukkit I am short here and holding for lower prices whether they take a day or a month. The r/r clearly (for me) favours the downside but as in any trade I have probably not much better than a 50/50 chance of being right.
I will probably stop out in tranches should we get a good daily close above these levels in the next 24 hours.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #72,453
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:37pm Feb 10, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Well fukkit I am short here and holding for lower prices whether they take a day or a month. The r/r clearly (for me) favours the downside but as in any trade I have probably not much better than a 50/50 chance of being right. I will probably stop out in tranches should we get a good daily close above these levels in the next 24 hours.
Doesn't look good to me with the big W on the 4H. As someone said AU has a minimum target of 92 something which looks quite plausible but 91 is almost a certainty by Wed this time. It's my experience also that you never fight "unusual" moves (at least not swing trading), like here biz confidence doesn't usually move AU this much but this time it did, plus EU and UC both moved on this. AC taking another crack at parity. All signs point to a bunch of wrongfooting and unlikely to come back in all affected crosses.
  • #72,454
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:44pm Feb 10, 2014 8:44pm
There are technical resistance points up here. I am therefore not interested in longs, only shorts. If AU can hold here and move higher in the next 24 hours then I am almost certainly wrong and higher prices will follow. Frankly it's not the greatest trade but I'm in it and this is resistance and I short at resistance until it is convincingly broken. That break could come in the next hour or tomorrow or some time later this week. It's an occupational hazard.
I certainly don't think the market has repositioned to a bullish AU stance so even if we break higher it's still a countertrend move. We are way way below key moving averages and there's plenty of time for this sucker to bounce up and down in a descending channel or even in a bear flag over the coming months.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #72,455
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:51pm Feb 10, 2014 8:51pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
There are technical resistance points up here. I am therefore not interested in longs, only shorts. If AU can hold here and move higher in the next 24 hours then I am almost certainly wrong and higher prices will follow. Frankly it's not the greatest trade but I'm in it and this is resistance and I short at resistance until it is convincingly broken. That break could come in the next hour or tomorrow or some time later this week. It's an occupational hazard. I certainly don't think the market has repositioned to a bullish AU stance so even if we...
You should go into managed futures I just don't have the same risk tolerance/time horizon you do so for me the stops are at 91 we're going to trade there no matter what thanks to the CTA crowd... and also given the 4H chart. haha.
  • #72,456
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:59pm Feb 10, 2014 8:59pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
There are technical resistance points up here.
OK... I don't get that. If there are no resistance points why not long ??

btw..... the monthly R1 pivot is .9003
the weekly R1 pivot is above @ .9050
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,457
  • Feb 10, 2014 9:05pm Feb 10, 2014 9:05pm
he is saying there are, so he is selling @ resistance points.

i think we will hit a stop around 0.9050, it is near the high of jan, it was a support level in nov/dec as well, turned resistance...

what do u think?
  • #72,458
  • Edited 9:22pm Feb 10, 2014 9:06pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} OK long scalp at 94
+10, no more trades in this until London
anyway, there are a a couple red flags for me as I already said.
-AUD employment on wednesday
-book stops above 9070
-unusual asia price action heavily involving other USD crosses (most likely some pre-Yellen positioning as well with broad USD weakness, you almost surely can't fade this into the news)
-any "technical price resistance" is irrelevant during numbers liquidity conditions
therefore, continue to look for longs after hourly pivots likely settle in closer in the london session to ensure that buyers have control (wait and see)
  • #72,459
  • Feb 10, 2014 9:18pm Feb 10, 2014 9:18pm
I'm still long from .8962

Just playing the wait and see game
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #72,460
  • Feb 10, 2014 9:46pm Feb 10, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} +10, no more trades in this until London anyway, there are a a couple red flags for me as I already said. -AUD employment on wednesday -book stops above 9070 -unusual asia price action heavily involving other USD crosses (most likely some pre-Yellen positioning as well with broad USD weakness, you almost surely can't fade this into the news) -any "technical price resistance" is irrelevant during numbers liquidity conditions therefore, continue to look for longs after hourly pivots likely settle in closer in the london session to ensure that...
Here's the interesting part, if 92xx is supposed to be the target, we could crack 9070 well before AUD employment. I wouldn't count it out on this Yellen speech. The market has been very trendy/volatile this year in general and with EA bouncing firmly off the daily pivot, 1.48xx is the next target
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