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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,721
  • Edited Feb 8, 2014 8:36pm Feb 7, 2014 8:58pm | Edited Feb 8, 2014 8:36pm
Yesterday, amongst a lot of the stuff that went on, I made the following comments :

--------------------------------------------------

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]" It is so often the fact on this day of the month that direction is not clear until nfp does its thing "[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]" To me, it has more and more the feel of it just testing and retesting some area it just broke out of .......... "[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]" [/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]The reason for the confusion is that GJ has a track record of being able to make corrections appear as a new trend, and trends to appear as a correction "[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]-----------------------------------------------------------[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]I am now of the opinion that the correction from 174.8 completed at 163.9. GJ then spent the next few days trying to retest (and broke back into) a rising channel / support area. The spike down during NFP only tested the channel that had been broken back into.[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249)]Consequently, I doubt that this present uptrend is corrective - as it will continue to appear, even until the end - but is impulsive and may travel to 170 ish first before a pullback, which would probably be limited to 167/168 or so, before it climbs back up to make or marginally exceed the double top. [/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249)]Assuming the argument is valid, only after making double top/or more will it correct back into the 163/163.5 or so area before it heads up again to 180 or so and then higher.[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249)]A drop out of 165/166 would negate this view and may suggest [/highlight][highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249)]a longer term triangle/wedge structure is starting or an eventual deeper correction.[/highlight]

[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249)]Edit - it still comes down to how it opens and whether it can maintain itself over 168.5/7[/highlight]
  • #10,722
  • Edited 3:02pm Feb 9, 2014 2:50pm | Edited 3:02pm
Outlook for calendar week 06(U.S.) / 07(EU):

Confirmed Decision Points:

171.20/00
169.80/60
168.40/20
|
<-We are here @ 168->
|
165.40/20
165.00/4.80
163.00/2.80

Scenario 1:
G/J printing 20 ticks below 168.40/20, next decision point. If it hold as support we probably see 171.20/00. Last week serious money changed hands at that spot. If those Shorts still sitting at their profits, they probably give it back. If 168.40/20 hold as resistance we probably see a test of 166.80/60(MidPoint). If 171.20/00 holds as support after a significant break, we gonna see the High printed @ 173.60/40 and further.

Scenario 2:
168.40/20 as hard resistance, break of 165.40/20 & 165.00/4.80, Target then: 163.00/2.80; test of 165.40/20 & 165.00/4.80, Target then: 168.40/20

Pic1: Big Picture
Pic2: Confirmed Decision Points

Somehow or other, its going to be a interesting week.
Good Luck every1!
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  • #10,723
  • Feb 10, 2014 3:07am Feb 10, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Mpt
"The reason for the confusion is that GJ has a track record of being able to make corrections appear as a new trend, and trends to appear as a correction "
I like this one, worth to remember. Well done
  • #10,724
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:22am Feb 10, 2014 4:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,725
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:35am Feb 10, 2014 6:35am
now it should continue/resume to upward journey...
  • #10,726
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:56am Feb 10, 2014 6:56am
volatility is so terribly low.. no chance to make pips right now.
  • #10,727
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:13am Feb 10, 2014 8:13am
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceboo...the-boardroom/
  • #10,728
  • Feb 10, 2014 10:18am Feb 10, 2014 10:18am
Quoting FX-Ray
Million Dollar Question: Guess where retails are long and short, if you see it, you know the direction Its showtime T-2Minutes {image}
Hey FX-Ray, can you share this indicator? Or at least some more info about it?

I imagine it is similar to this sentiment indicator: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
  • #10,729
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:34am Feb 10, 2014 11:34am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Hey FX-Ray, can you share this indicator? Or at least some more info about it? I imagine it is similar to this sentiment indicator: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
First answer the question I asked in the post quoted, if you give me the right answer I tell you what it is. Since its after the fact it shouldnt be that hard
You can pm me if you dont want to answer here.

Cheers
  • #10,730
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:48am Feb 10, 2014 11:48am
Generally retailers go long above previous high and short below low... but most of time those high/low created by excess liquidity in the mkt and turns fake BO.
  • #10,731
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:19pm Feb 10, 2014 8:19pm
Deciding S/R levels

weekly not interested to go up

H4 not interested to go down.


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  • #10,732
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:51pm Feb 10, 2014 8:51pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Outlook for calendar week 06(U.S.) / 07(EU): Confirmed Decision Points: 171.20/00 169.80/60 168.40/20 | <-We are here @ 168-> | 165.40/20 165.00/4.80 163.00/2.80 Scenario 1: G/J printing 20 ticks below 168.40/20, next decision point. If it hold as support we probably see 171.20/00. Last week serious money changed hands at that spot. If those Shorts still sitting at their profits, they probably give it back. If 168.40/20 hold as resistance we probably see a test of 166.80/60(MidPoint). If 171.20/00 holds as support after a significant break, we gonna...
yes 168.40 is key
  • #10,733
  • Feb 10, 2014 11:30pm Feb 10, 2014 11:30pm
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  • #10,734
  • Feb 11, 2014 12:06am Feb 11, 2014 12:06am
Quoting PatienceFx
{image}
Correction or uptrend? So far a 76% retracement from 168.45.

Maybe it will keep going up, but note that this hour of the day is when many retracements complete.
  • #10,735
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:00am Feb 11, 2014 1:00am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Correction or uptrend? So far a 76% retracement from 168.45. Maybe it will keep going up, but note that this hour of the day is when many retracements complete.
a scalp

because h1 20 sma on price below is above the base indicator on price which denotes limited move up, my read was a touch of 20 sma line then drop again, hence my short term scalp

20 sma of price not 20 sma of previous indicator
  • #10,736
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:05am Feb 11, 2014 1:05am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} a scalp because h1 20 sma on price below is above the base indicator on price which denotes limited move up, my read was a touch of 20 sma line then drop again, hence my short term scalp 20 sma of price not 20 sma of previous indicator
put in cleare term, for today i am not expecting anything above week open / yellow line in chart, max at previous week high, but since gj dropped 89 pips below week open on Monday, this week it can go as high as 89 pips above week open making it a very boring week.
  • #10,737
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:06am Feb 11, 2014 1:06am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} yes 168.40 is key
Would like to see a Test/Break/Test.
  • #10,738
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:07am Feb 11, 2014 1:07am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} a scalp because h1 20 sma on price below is above the base indicator on price which denotes limited move up, my read was a touch of 20 sma line then drop again, hence my short term scalp 20 sma of price not 20 sma of previous indicator
I wouldn't have a clue. I rarely use many emas and then they mainly just add colour to my screen.
  • #10,739
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:18am Feb 11, 2014 1:18am
better seen on monthly charts

in 2007 the base indicator crossed the 20 sma on price denoting a bearish move developing which confirmed itself by year end

in 2009 the base indicator again switched sides denoting the downside will be restricted and finally gave the go in 2012

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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applying the same principles on smaller tf on my h1 chart the 20 sma is above the base indicator denoting a bearish move, so any longs today will be short lived and price can again tend to drop.

seen on daily chart gj is still in bearish mode with 55 ema above holding as resistance and base indicator below 20 sma of price in the bottom window confirming this mood.

as FX-Ray put it yes 168.40 is the key, but overall feb should end in sideways consolidation.

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  • #10,740
  • Feb 11, 2014 1:21am Feb 11, 2014 1:21am
and price dropped

the whole action is in the bottom window not in the candles above

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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