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Medium & Long Term ONLY

  • #261
  • Feb 1, 2014 9:00am Feb 1, 2014 9:00am
Quoting keziahpie
anyone has any view on aud/jpy pair? thought it is oversold and may bounce north.

I have not been watching this pair personally but here are some thoughts on the current price level.

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Since the major move from 2008 to 2012 completed the pair has reacted nicely to the fib levels as seen on the chart. A bounce off 38.2% rejected at 23.6% and now looking like it might retest the 38.2% quite soon after the first test. Plenty of support below following a rapid drop from recent highs. Both pairs are having the living daylights beaten out of them by their respective central banks monetary policies. Japan is planting vast acres of money trees in order to escape from long term deflationary stagnation, whilst the RBA is ready with it's interest rate slashing magic wand to depreciate the AUD. For a long term opportunity I would be looking to see which of the two economies show the first signs of moving away from a current dovish stance to a more hawkish position and if there is a significant divergence between the monetary policies that could give the pair directional momentum. For the time being I don't have any directional bias on this pair.
Nil desperandum
  • #262
  • Feb 1, 2014 9:06am Feb 1, 2014 9:06am
Quoting vincentprice
I am sure we are all aware of the battering AUD has incurred paired against it's oceanic rival. The pair now at 1.08 is firmly entrenched at long term historic lows, 1.1 being the the support floor ever since the pair began to trade on the open market in the 70's! {image} I intend to start loading up long on the pair for the mid to long term. I am not too worried as to the fundamental driving forces right now which are the obvious reason for the sharp downtrend, they will change over the time frame in which I have open positions! The strategy for...

Here is an update on AZD/NZD which recently put in a reaction at the long term low. Could this lead to a mid term shift in sentiment in this pair or some volatile consolidation as the cycle ends? I am not sure but currently targeting 1.12, if we see further downside movement I will add more long term positions.

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Nil desperandum
  • #263
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:00pm Feb 8, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting vincentprice
EUR-GBP This is as a real "No brainer", the area of consolidation from 04'12 to 12'12' is what the great BillyRayValentine refers to as a bucket! Personally I quiet like the term. Untested and lies on 50% fib, I noticed this possibility earlier in the year and now price is almost in reach. I would consider this a one to six week jobby. Let see what happens. {image}
Price bounced off the 50% Fib retrace of the major trend to the pip! I like to place orders just above the level accounting for the spread to ensure the limit order is triggered. Upper trendline tested on Thursday, I closed 3 positions at the end of the week as the Eurozone inflation figures have spooked me a little. Some action will need to be taken by the ECB if inflation continues to fall but right now they remain in wait and see mode it seems. Unlike many people people I am long term bullish on this pair, the Euro has appreciated against the pound since launch and will remain bullish I think. If price hits 0.817 again I will use the move as an opportunity to start to accumulate longs again.

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Nil desperandum
  • #264
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:05pm Feb 8, 2014 3:05pm
Quoting 1 in 1 out
{quote} Interesting, I was looking at that from a different angle. 3 line drive into a 61.8 retracement and the 1 bar of a 1,2,3 setup also untested. Same conclusion. {image}

Did you take the trade?
Nil desperandum
  • #265
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:58pm Feb 8, 2014 3:58pm
UsdJpy
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #266
  • Feb 8, 2014 4:22pm Feb 8, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting Olu
UsdJpy {image}
I think the same ! The ascending weekly trendline is broken , and the price retested that trendline on friday , so after this moment ; the pair seems to be at the beginning of a bearish trend to 99,50ish and later 97,xx s.

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/8141/n39p.png




Imagination rules the world ...
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  • #267
  • Feb 9, 2014 6:16am Feb 9, 2014 6:16am
Quoting vincentprice
GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD update These two pairs are rocketing so I thought I would update my entry strategy. There is a good chance any mid term pullback will not go further than the 23.6% Fib retrace of the recent uptrends in both pairs. My first entries will be at these levels, currently 1.76 for GBP/AUD and 160.5 for GBP/JPY. Any deeper retrace would only see me adding to my positions at 148.4 for GBP/JPY and 1.63 for GBP/AUD, although I think these levels won't be seen unless there are some fundamental changes. Let's see how we fair in 2014! Here...
GBP/AUD in process of forming a pullback, I have updated the chart for the new high. Let's see if price continues to retrace.

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Nil desperandum
  • #268
  • Feb 9, 2014 6:25am Feb 9, 2014 6:25am
Quoting Olu
UsdJpy {image}
I also see some interesting zones to load long on the GBP/JPY if the retrace goes deeper.

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Nil desperandum
  • #269
  • Feb 9, 2014 7:28am Feb 9, 2014 7:28am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} I also see some interesting zones to load long on the GBP/JPY if the retrace goes deeper. {image}

Hi VP

Most of my forex friends have been saying there is little or no chance of more downside in the jpy pairs because almost all of them put in bullish engulfing patterns or tweezer bottoms or hammers last week on the weekly charts. The markets will tell starting from a few hours from now - right or wrong

Enjoying your posts man

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #270
  • Feb 9, 2014 7:32am Feb 9, 2014 7:32am
Quoting selym_co
{quote} I think the same ! The ascending weekly trendline is broken , and the price retested that trendline on friday , so after this moment ; the pair seems to be at the beginning of a bearish trend to 99,50ish and later 97,xx s. {image}

Hi Salym_co

we are the minority when it comes to what the jpy pairs will do. Glad to see that the someone else sees the market the same way I do using a different analytics. Whether we are right or wrong the markets will tell. As long as we apply good MM we will be alright either way

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #271
  • Feb 9, 2014 7:47am Feb 9, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi VP Most of my forex friends have been saying there is little or no chance of more downside in the jpy pairs because almost all of them put in bullish engulfing patterns or tweezer bottoms or hammers last week on the weekly charts. The markets will tell starting from a few hours from now - right or wrong Enjoying your posts man Olu
Hello Olu

I pay no attention to candle patterns on any time frame, in my experience they are meaningless. A chart might be displaying a perfect tweezer bottom on support, shooting stars, doji's or dancing scarecrows, only to see the following days economic data releases moving the markets regardless.

VP
Nil desperandum
  • #272
  • Feb 9, 2014 7:51am Feb 9, 2014 7:51am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi VP Most of my forex friends have been saying there is little or no chance of more downside in the jpy pairs because almost all of them put in bullish engulfing patterns or tweezer bottoms or hammers last week on the weekly charts. The markets will tell starting from a few hours from now - right or wrong Enjoying your posts man Olu
sorry man, but trying to predict the market by looking at engulfing patterns and tweezer bottoms is just plain stupid. The central banks don't care about that, the corporations which want to hedge don't care about that, the people who need to exchange money don't care about that and the hedge funds don't care about that either.

If the central bank of japan is saying next week that they will do anything to get a strong jpy, then all your price patterns have no meaning whatsoever, you will get hammered.
  • #273
  • Feb 9, 2014 9:01am Feb 9, 2014 9:01am
Quoting Custos
{quote} sorry man, but trying to predict the market by looking at engulfing patterns and tweezer bottoms is just plain stupid. The central banks don't care about that, the corporations which want to hedge don't care about that, the people who need to exchange money don't care about that and the hedge funds don't care about that either. If the central bank of japan is saying next week that they will do anything to get a strong jpy, then all your price patterns have no meaning whatsoever, you will get hammered.

Hi Custos

It is not as stupid as you say. We are technical traders we have to follow something or the other - MAs, EW, Gann ets. We dont just shoot anyhow. If price is in an uptrend does some retracement and puts a bullish engulfing off support area I am now programmed to go long. That is me. Other traders feel free to condemn me for doing that. I do agree though that fundamentals can trump the technicals we follow short termish. A bearish engulfing candle pattern in the usdjpy cannot withstand a 3 billion $ BOJ purchase of $. The candle will be swept away like it wasnt there in the first place. But I dont know how you trade I cant wait all year trying to figure out when there is going to be BOJ intervention.
Perhaps I did not get what you are saying correctly so feel free to elaborate some more in the light of what I have typed/replied

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #274
  • Feb 9, 2014 9:04am Feb 9, 2014 9:04am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} Hello Olu I pay no attention to candle patterns on any time frame, in my experience they are meaningless. A chart might be displaying a perfect tweezer bottom on support, shooting stars, doji's or dancing scarecrows, only to see the following days economic data releases moving the markets regardless. VP

Hi VP

What guides your trading? If you have said it earlier on this thread please forgive me. Surely there must be some element of price in your trading

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #275
  • Feb 9, 2014 9:26am Feb 9, 2014 9:26am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi VP What guides your trading? If you have said it earlier on this thread please forgive me. Surely there must be some element of price in your trading Olu

Hi Olu

I use both technical analysis and fundamental market drivers to brakedown the market.

In terms of technicals personally I prefer to use support and resistance coupled with other confluences, primarily Fibs and pivot point. They tend to work well because they are used extensively. These tools help me decide entry and exit points for trades.

In order to decide a bias on the medium term direction of a pair I use economic data and particularly central bank press releases. I look to compare the present situation to historic scenarios to identify shifts in overall sentiment and long term trends for a pair.
Nil desperandum
  • #276
  • Feb 9, 2014 9:32am Feb 9, 2014 9:32am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} Hi Olu I use both technical analysis and fundamental market drivers to brakedown the market. In terms of technicals personally I prefer to use support and resistance coupled with other confluences, primarily Fibs and pivot point. They tend to work well because they are used extensively. These tools help me decide entry and exit points for trades. In order to decide a bias on the medium term direction of a pair I use economic data and particularly central bank press releases. I look to compare the present situation to historic scenarios to...

Hi VP

We are not far off in out trading styles. I too do have a fundy slant in my trading. And use S+R as well as I mentioned in my reply to Custos. We are really not far apart. I would not take candles as the all in all but at support you would like to see price support holding before committing long wouldnt you? Hence the candle pattern/bars/lines etc

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #277
  • Edited 10:32am Feb 9, 2014 9:33am | Edited 10:32am
Nil desperandum
  • #278
  • Feb 9, 2014 10:00am Feb 9, 2014 10:00am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi VP We are not far off in out trading styles. I too do have a fundy slant in my trading. And use S+R as well as I mentioned in my reply to Custos. We are really not far apart. I would not take candles as the all in all but at support you would like to see price support holding before committing long wouldnt you? Hence the candle pattern/bars/lines etc Olu

When I have a conviction about a particular price level I want to enter as close as I can to that level. Sometimes price will bounce precisely and sharply from the level, other times multiple taps will happen or price will temporarily move a small distance past the level before turning. In this turning process all manner, shape and size of candles can be seen on different time frames. A big hammer may form on the level looking bullish to some people only to see price continue on to break the level a few days later.

From my perspective, either the level holds or fails and based on the technical/fundamental view on that level an entry should be based on experience of knowing that there is a good chance the level is a turning point. Entering as close to the level as possible gives the best risk reward and cheapest entry price.

You can see from this EUR/GBP chart showing resolved supply/demand zones followed by the subsequent price reversals on the initial test of the levels that all manner of candle shapes and sizes occur, none offer any predictive advantage.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nil desperandum
  • #279
  • Feb 9, 2014 11:00am Feb 9, 2014 11:00am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} When I have a conviction about a particular price level I want to enter as close as I can to that level. ...
Thanks for the clarification VP

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #280
  • Feb 9, 2014 12:15pm Feb 9, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi Salym_co we are the minority when it comes to what the jpy pairs will do. Glad to see that the someone else sees the market the same way I do using a different analytics. Whether we are right or wrong the markets will tell. As long as we apply good MM we will be alright either way Olu

http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/7296/wkiw.png


Hi Olu , I just saw your post. I wanna share another perspective (my detailed long term expectation chart) where the price has ended the week at an interesting place. First of all , the two top pivots which I marked with black little circles seem to be twin towers with similar strength and similar characteristics. The bullish trend was strong enough to break it in the north direction which made me believe that the price will be around 110s around February next year. But surprisingly the price retraced back to the circular support which was really strong , and even penetrated it in the south direction which changed my expectation to 86s until August this year. Aaaand on friday the price again pulled back to the critical zone which cannot be penetrated easily neither in the south nor in the north direction. So now , despite the candlesticks' characteristics , with a little flexibility , I expect the price to sink down.

In case the circular resistence is again broken , then this chart will be kinda trash

Regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
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