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Medium & Long Term ONLY

  • #241
  • Dec 22, 2013 6:39am Dec 22, 2013 6:39am
I am sure we are all aware of the battering AUD has incurred paired against it's oceanic rival. The pair now at 1.08 is firmly entrenched at long term historic lows, 1.1 being the the support floor ever since the pair began to trade on the open market in the 70's!

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I intend to start loading up long on the pair for the mid to long term. I am not too worried as to the fundamental driving forces right now which are the obvious reason for the sharp downtrend, they will change over the time frame in which I have open positions!

The strategy for doing this will be entering a "small" long position for every ~400pip drop in price. I wont be using a stop loss and don't care how far south price drops. In fact the further it falls the better as it allows entry into more positions at lower prices. This is a longer term investment strategy more than a trade.
Nil desperandum
  • #242
  • Dec 22, 2013 6:57am Dec 22, 2013 6:57am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} technically the 1.70 is possible if there will be no important economic data changes in january + fewbruary i guess price will test at least prev highs 1.66- 1.68.

Looks like it's been searching for a direction.
Still unresolved.
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  • #243
  • Dec 22, 2013 7:08am Dec 22, 2013 7:08am
Quoting 1 in 1 out
{quote} Looks like it's been searching for a direction. Still unresolved. {image}
Here is another level I would like to see hit!

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Nil desperandum
  • #244
  • Dec 22, 2013 7:26am Dec 22, 2013 7:26am
Quoting 1 in 1 out
{quote} Looks like it's been searching for a direction. Still unresolved. {image}
I thought I would add another possibility for the pound that is worth considering bearing in mind the market priced the pound at 1.48 only five months ago and now it's testing the upper region of the longer term range. A test and more demand entering the market around 1.6-1.57 would seem reasonable before higher prices.

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Nil desperandum
  • #245
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:13am Dec 23, 2013 1:13am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} I thought I would add another possibility for the pound that is worth considering bearing in mind the market priced the pound at 1.48 only five months ago and now it's testing the upper region of the longer term range. A test and more demand entering the market around 1.6-1.57 would seem reasonable before higher prices. {image}
totally agree with you in this!
i was personally expecting to see a quick drop straight from 1.63 to 1.58 before year ending time. since actually fundamentals are not allowing it (luckily i would say) there will be more time required. but eventually, when we'll see reasons for it, must bear in mind that the first important support will be just there, slightly below 1.60.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #246
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:15am Dec 23, 2013 1:15am
Quoting 1 in 1 out
{quote} Looks like it's been searching for a direction. Still unresolved. {image}
true!
i missed to be precise: by saying 1.70 is possible I mean only by technical point of view... but buying at these levels to target there looks not much promising.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #247
  • Dec 26, 2013 5:03am Dec 26, 2013 5:03am
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thank you!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #248
  • Edited 8:11am Dec 28, 2013 8:00am | Edited 8:11am
GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD update

These two pairs are rocketing so I thought I would update my entry strategy. There is a good chance any mid term pullback will not go further than the 23.6% Fib retrace of the recent uptrends in both pairs. My first entries will be at these levels, currently 1.76 for GBP/AUD and 160.5 for GBP/JPY.

Any deeper retrace would only see me adding to my positions at 148.4 for GBP/JPY and 1.63 for GBP/AUD, although I think these levels won't be seen unless there are some fundamental changes. Let's see how we fair in 2014!

Here are the charts.

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Nil desperandum
  • #249
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:21am Dec 29, 2013 9:21am
Quoting vincentprice
GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD update These two pairs are rocketing so I thought I would update my entry strategy. There is a good chance any mid term pullback will not go further than the 23.6% Fib retrace of the recent uptrends in both pairs. My first entries will be at these levels, currently 1.76 for GBP/AUD and 160.5 for GBP/JPY. Any deeper retrace would only see me adding to my positions at 148.4 for GBP/JPY and 1.63 for GBP/AUD, although I think these levels won't be seen unless there are some fundamental changes. Let's see how we fair in 2014! Here...
Thanks I will be adding these to my monitor list.

Following my post on the possible turning point above current Euro/USD price I thought it worthwhile to try to find a similar area below for USD/CHF.

0.8560 pops up as a point of interest on a S and R level.
It also marks the 50% retrace point of the move from the Aug 2011 low to the July 2012 high.
Furthermore we have not had a weekly close below the last swing low @ 0.8889
Should this occur a projected 1.618 extension also coincides with this area.
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  • #250
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:45am Dec 31, 2013 10:45am
AUD/CHF looks to be heading towards longterm oversold also.
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Enter Signature
  • #251
  • Jan 1, 2014 3:37am Jan 1, 2014 3:37am
Quoting Badger1
AUD/CHF looks to be heading towards longterm oversold also. {image}
Yes it does.
An impressive pin bar on the monthly.
What chance that turns price in the not to distant future.
After all we have retraced 50% of its length already.
Perhaps the potential double bottom on the daily is a bit to early.
  • #252
  • Jan 1, 2014 10:28am Jan 1, 2014 10:28am
This levels seen a bit action.
A value point over many years.
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  • #253
  • Jan 1, 2014 4:24pm Jan 1, 2014 4:24pm
EUR-GBP

This is as a real "No brainer", the area of consolidation from 04'12 to 12'12' is what the great BillyRayValentine refers to as a bucket! Personally I quiet like the term.

Untested and lies on 50% fib, I noticed this possibility earlier in the year and now price is almost in reach. I would consider this a one to six week jobby.

Let see what happens.

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Nil desperandum
  • #254
  • Jan 2, 2014 5:23am Jan 2, 2014 5:23am
Quoting vincentprice
EUR-GBP This is as a real "No brainer", the area of consolidation from 04'12 to 12'12' is what the great BillyRayValentine refers to as a bucket! Personally I quiet like the term. Untested and lies on 50% fib, I noticed this possibility earlier in the year and now price is almost in reach. I would consider this a one to six week jobby. Let see what happens. {image}

Interesting, I was looking at that from a different angle.
3 line drive into a 61.8 retracement and the 1 bar of a 1,2,3 setup also untested.
Same conclusion.
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  • #255
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:48am Jan 19, 2014 8:48am
Another chart worth noting.

potential bottoming out in EUR/NZD

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Nil desperandum
  • #256
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:34am Jan 23, 2014 9:34am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} Gnzd was also not simple IMO, i didn't even touch it today --> there will be other opp soon
Hi BBKing Bro,

What's you think about GBP/NZD pair ??

Is it so Interest and so Sweet


Cheers...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #257
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:29am Jan 23, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Hi BBKing Bro, What's you think about GBP/NZD pair ?? Is it so Interest and so Sweet Cheers... {image}
uhm im bit uncertain atm on it!
i feel it will go higher
but still has something to manage on the downside. monthly chart gives me no confidence...

i just let it go for some days... maybe next week will be better
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #258
  • Feb 1, 2014 5:44am Feb 1, 2014 5:44am
Quoting vincentprice
I like to keep things as close a "no brainer trade" as possible. Take two pairs, one very bullish across the board and the other downtrodden and heading for the gutter. GBP/AUD. . . . The Australian economy is softening. Unemployment continues to trend upwards having risen steadily from 4.9% - 5.7% over the past two years. RBA want the AUD lower across the board in part to offset lowered investment in a contracting mining sector. Doubts exist as to whether stronger sectors in the economy will offset the shrinking mining industry. The interest rate...
Hey Vincent,

I already have some Buy limits @ GPB/AUD and GBP/JPY.. i was messing around and i find this on GBP/CAD.

I'm adding some buy limits at this pair too, what do you think?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #259
  • Feb 1, 2014 7:55am Feb 1, 2014 7:55am
anyone has any view on aud/jpy pair? thought it is oversold and may bounce north.
  • #260
  • Feb 1, 2014 8:37am Feb 1, 2014 8:37am
Quoting zOrO2kX
{quote} Hey Vincent, I already have some Buy limits @ GPB/AUD and GBP/JPY.. i was messing around and i find this on GBP/CAD. I'm adding some buy limits at this pair too, what do you think? {image}

This is a great pair for longer term trades due to it's cyclic nature. When price is in freight train mode and moving at a seemingly unstoppable pace it is easy to forget that retracements can be just as powerful. A simple logical approach to finding a a series of long entries with a mid/long term view would be to use fib points to accumulate a position. Entry level is not so critical if the target is take 1000pips+ from a cyclic trend and it is not necessary to deliberate over where exact turning points in price might be, greatly simplifying the technical picture. Provided of course that the fundamental economic driving forces remain favorable for the cycle to play out. Bearing that in mind I would use a strategy for entry as illustrated on the chart accumulating from a series of small entries at each level and not let greed tempt me into overleveraging or adding positions. Simple logic no emotion and the the strategy will yield what it yields without holding any expectation.

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Nil desperandum
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