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  • #201
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:12am Nov 28, 2013 11:12am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} yep! very same view! i do expect AT LEAST, a good corrective move to the upside in $CHF somewhere around .9160 .9200 but IMO, we still are paying the SNB and BOJ interventations here. so let's see furthermore... why the reason market should keep selling $?? i don't really see anymore any single reason for this to keep going! ok GBP shown good data in recent weeks, but what about the EURO?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! smells like the biggest and smartest trap ever done!
Hi

Looks like I have found a thread that fits more with my style of trading.

I too am a little surprised to see how resilient EU has been over the last few weeks. Expecting lower prices to come based on the worrying releases from ECB and the spectre of tapering looming in the background.

I am not surprised to see the pound trading at 1.63. UK economy has been improving steadily over last 2 years and accelerating of late. Prices in the range of 1.55 - 1.65 were tolerated for a considerable period 08-2010 -01-2013 when the UK economy stood on a far less stable footing in comparison to the US. Tapering woes created high levels of volatility in the pair, helped push the pound as low as 1.5, which at the time ( earlier this year) was well overdone and allowed me to capitalise. Tapering brought forward could push the pound back to 1.575 "bucket" which would be worth considering to go long IMHO, obviously dependent on how the scenario evolves from here lol.

Asian currencies bearish across the board. I was very bearish on AUD, AUD/CAD especially during the recent rally but think the best of the downside has already been priced in now. No significant disparity remains for me to look to trade those pairs at the moment.

I usually trade 1-8 week positions based on trying to identify a disparity between economic circumstance and market sentiment ( i.e current price level). Entry and exits based on technical levels. supply and demand zones in particular aligned with Fib and other confluences.

Regards

VP
Nil desperandum
  • #202
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:03pm Nov 28, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} Hi Looks like I have found a thread that fits more with my style of trading. I too am a little surprised to see how resilient EU has been over the last few weeks. Expecting lower prices to come based on the worrying releases from ECB and the spectre of tapering looming in the background. I am not surprised to see the pound trading at 1.63. UK economy has been improving steadily over last 2 years and accelerating of late. Prices in the range of 1.55 - 1.65 were tolerated for a considerable period 08-2010 -01-2013 when the UK economy stood...
hello,
interesting approach!
from a certain point of view i do it very similar, the only exception is that i decide also my entries on technicals and fibs, but overall the decision always start from a fundamental point of view.

at the moment the EURO is really a mistery to me ! i mean... i do really believe the pair should be somewhere around parity, and this is causing me the inability to buy it and in the same time being short is not simple since every time goes down a bit just to correct the whole move. furthermore still the EURUSD is mirroring with USDCHF.

speaking about cable seems 1.64-1.65 areas are on cards, but i will not be considering any kind of confluence with EURUSD which i don't certainly expect to see rising to 1.40 as many do...: i'm basically bullish in GBPCHF which seems like 'paying' something (compared to gbpcad/nzd/aud/jpy..) while in my opinion there is the whole opportunity for it to reach 1.51 - 1.52 area (at least!).

technically speaking i see a weekly double bottom, and price pushing the neck after a recent strong weekly cup+handle setup. once the 1.48 will give up, the move will be quite steep :nerd:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_CHF_Monthly_snapshot.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_CHF_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 37 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #203
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:12pm Nov 29, 2013 12:12pm
market really never sleeps!
usd cad breaking resistance, gbpchf breaking resistance, usdchf bouncing off support, eu taking the correct direction (down ) and alll this happening right few minutes around last london close of november!!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #204
  • Edited 8:36am Dec 1, 2013 7:48am | Edited 8:36am
I like to keep things as close a "no brainer trade" as possible. Take two pairs, one very bullish across the board and the other downtrodden and heading for the gutter.

GBP/AUD. . . .

The Australian economy is softening. Unemployment continues to trend upwards having risen steadily from 4.9% - 5.7% over the past two years. RBA want the AUD lower across the board in part to offset lowered investment in a contracting mining sector. Doubts exist as to whether stronger sectors in the economy will offset the shrinking mining industry. The interest rate has fallen steadily since 2011, full affect of which has yet to be seen?? RBA mindful of when the US will begin tapering and if this will further depreciate the AUD. More intervention maybe required, scope to lower interest rates. No sign of inflation trending up. Stock market trending up but under performing, still way off 2008 highs. China apparently stabilising to lower 7.5% growth.

UK economy is obviously improving. Further QE unlikely. All economic indicators turned positive. Speculation on when interest rates will begin to rise. Carney reluctant to raise rates until 2016! Stock market at fair value on current earnings.

What interests me is in the interest rate diferential and speculation on where rates will be in the future. It is only a matter of time before the US will need to start raising rates. Then of course the UK will follow suit. RBA has set the benchmark at a record low with scope for lowering.

GBP/AUD is pricing in the divergence between the two economies having rallied strongly over the year. In my view the exchange rate does not yet adequately reflect the economic changes and higher prices are to come.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudfxfweekly.png Size: 31 KB


I thought the following long term chart might be of interest. It shows prices dating back more than 30 years. The pair is trading off historic lows and 2.0000 still realistic mid point to price and long term possibility.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-AUD since 1960.png Size: 13 KB


I would like to see a retrace to 1.75 area to take some mid to long term positions targeting 1.9 and 2.0.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudfxfdaily.png Size: 30 KB


Regards
VP
Nil desperandum
  • #205
  • Dec 1, 2013 9:57am Dec 1, 2013 9:57am
GOLD WEEKLY CHART

(MELTING ICEBERG SHAPE)

We may see sudden drops to the 680-850 area. BE CAREFULL !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldweekly.png Size: 49 KB
  • #206
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:49am Dec 4, 2013 7:49am
for what i see.... $ starts to show something.
i'm heavily buying $chf.

if plays out, we'll see 0.92 area in relatively few time
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #207
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:01am Dec 4, 2013 8:01am
Quoting _BBKing_
for what i see.... $ starts to show something. i'm heavily buying $chf. if plays out, we'll see 0.92 area in relatively few time
Care to share the SL ?

thanks
  • #208
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:44am Dec 4, 2013 8:44am
Quoting EternalNewB
{quote} Care to share the SL ? thanks
actually anywhere < .89 will make no sense to hold a long position.
but this will depending on when and mainly WHY price will get into .89 area
assuming it will
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #209
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:06am Dec 4, 2013 9:06am
Quoting vincentprice
I like to keep things as close a "no brainer trade" as possible. Take two pairs, one very bullish across the board and the other downtrodden and heading for the gutter. GBP/AUD. . . . The Australian economy is softening. Unemployment continues to trend upwards having risen steadily from 4.9% - 5.7% over the past two years. RBA want the AUD lower across the board in part to offset lowered investment in a contracting mining sector. ..................... Regards VP
at the moment seems really a long wait for the 1.75 to come again.. but let's see what's next, market is crazy

edit: y'day i was looking to price setup and was printing a kind of triangular continuation setup (8h - daily). now also the 1.80 could be a short term support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_AUD_8 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 16 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #210
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:09am Dec 4, 2013 9:09am
when holding a trade for a long time i feel like this
Attached Image
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #211
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:14pm Dec 4, 2013 1:14pm
I left my pc for few hours, and $chf price is back to my lower entries.

wtf!

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #212
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:53pm Dec 4, 2013 1:53pm
well..
here in italy, starting from 9th december, there will be a lot of people in strike for many many reasons.
there is a large part of the country in anger with government!

ok, i don't know how things will develop.... should be just a quick and peaceful protest!
but you know... things can get worse any time, and one important matter is about italian participation in the euro zone.

i don't know if this comes out from international news headlines (i personally doubt!), so i thought to share it here.

just to say... italian unemployment rate is about 12-13%
basically all of them will be on the roads, and in main cities places.
not only them.... also all transporters (tracks) who will simply lock the country for 5 days (or more) with the most large strike ever, and they will only allow most important services (food, water, drugs etc,,,)

there is people buying water and other stuff, scared that the protest could keep going till the end of the year.



summarizing:
there could happen something wrong, giving pressure on markets.
i don't think it will affect forex, maybe italian stocks. but we never know!

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #213
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:14pm Dec 4, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting _BBKing_
I left my pc for few hours, and $chf price is back to my lower entries. wtf!

I feel you BBKing. I posted on my thread about a possible $index upmovde only to return later to see it right back at support. So I will join you in your state of being at wits end

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #214
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:23pm Dec 4, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I feel you BBKing. I posted on my thread about a possible $index upmovde only to return later to see it right back at support. So I will join you in your state of being at wits end Olu

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #215
  • Dec 4, 2013 5:31pm Dec 4, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} at the moment seems really a long wait for the 1.75 to come again.. but let's see what's next, market is crazy edit: y'day i was looking to price setup and was printing a kind of triangular continuation setup (8h - daily). now also the 1.80 could be a short term support {image}
Hello BBK

GBP-AUD is in a nice gentle up channel on the weekly, bearing in mind this pair regularly moves between 500-1000 pips a week. 1.75 IMO is very likely to hold if it is tested! If that is the case we could see an acceleration in price towards 2.0000 as trends often go parabolic once they become established and the shift in sentiment increases. Of course any significant change to the market drivers could invalidate the scenario. I think the chart below puts a nice perspective on the recent up channel. 38.2% Fib retrace of the major trend at 1.91 would be a good initial profit zone. I would be looking to enter a mid term position for 2-6 weeks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudfxfweekly.png Size: 41 KB
Nil desperandum
  • #216
  • Dec 8, 2013 1:34pm Dec 8, 2013 1:34pm
on thursday evening i closed all trades.
overall not bad, the only bad is $chf loss.

some days of rest are required! market will be here also next year (i hope )

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #217
  • Dec 9, 2013 9:02am Dec 9, 2013 9:02am
Extreme Networks Inc :

After a big drop there are approximately 11 years of consolidation period and now the volume is expanding.

Best example of accumulation?

Have a look

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: extreme.png Size: 35 KB
  • #218
  • Dec 10, 2013 1:11pm Dec 10, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting _BBKing_
on thursday evening i closed all trades. overall not bad, the only bad is $chf loss. some days of rest are required! market will be here also next year (i hope )
OK, I was getting worried. With Olu and you at your wit's end I was wondering... I still think these Chf trades are valid but we need to see some more good numbers.
Gone to a better place
  • #219
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:48am Dec 12, 2013 2:48am
Quoting smikester
{quote} OK, I was getting worried. With Olu and you at your wit's end I was wondering... I still think these Chf trades are valid but we need to see some more good numbers.
Actually CHF is making me nervous... i'm looking to reload longs $chf but not yet
Maybe some stop orders just arond jordan speech, but then i'm for the new year
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #220
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:29am Dec 12, 2013 3:29am
USD/JPY

While the weekly chart has the potential for a double top, the monthly reveals an area a bit higher for a possible turning point.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpymonthly.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyweekly.png Size: 28 KB
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