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  • #9,721
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:50am Feb 7, 2014 10:50am
Quoting 3spak
{quote} Maybe sell for us/jpy is better, usually when eur/usd goes up, the usd/jpy goeas down? I guess?
I think next month NFP will be better and higher than forecast..So value of USD will go up...

For your question,

When USD gains value USD/JPY goes up and
EUR/USD goes down
It is deterministic situation...and It is generally expected to be like that (especially in high volatile market and instant situations (like today))...Have a nice weekend..
  • #9,722
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:14am Feb 7, 2014 11:14am
Quoting romant
Tony I understand the maths of this strategy i.e. profit is 3 times larger than the stop size and you need less than 35% of wins to be in +. So according to your several years of exeprience after the news there is a parity for price direction - in overall it goes 50% up and 50% down. Or you have some observations about it?

I definitely will! Sorry yesterday was a busy day... The answer is 50/50 exactly and I'm sure on that. With any pair.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,723
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:17am Feb 7, 2014 11:17am
Quoting pipcruiser
Got slipped 19 pips on Oanda, out with -34... 101.92. PC {image}

is it slippage or you just had your SL there?? I'm with them too and I retracted my SL which was respected to the pip close!
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  • #9,724
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:46am Feb 7, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} is it slippage or you just had your SL there?? I'm with them too and I retracted my SL which was respected to the pip close!
It is raw slippage.

SL was set to 15, got out with -34.. I did not move SL up, (got distracted because I was recording the event with screen capture software lol. A no-go next time for sure.)

If I have followed the rules on page 1 with 50 TP it would have been cool

Have a great weekend all.

PC
Less is more...
  • #9,725
  • Feb 7, 2014 1:42pm Feb 7, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} I definitely will! Sorry yesterday was a busy day... The answer is 50/50 exactly and I'm sure on that. With any pair.
Cool! Thanks, Tony! I really appreciate what you're doing and waiting for your videos!
  • #9,726
  • Edited 3:06pm Feb 7, 2014 1:49pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting ind.engineer
usd jpy -- buy order at 102.23 SL at 102.10...SL didnt work and close at 101.76 LOST...
Exactly the same happened to me. Got 30+ pips slippage, lost 6%... next trade will be better At least thanks to yesterday's win I didn't loose anything.
My broker is Armada, it was the first time I had such a slippage, hope it wont happen again...

EDIT: found LMAX tick chart, price gapped from 102.395 to 101.810, i.e. 58.5 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY NFP tickchart LMAX 2014-02-07 a 21.58.03.png Size: 37 KB
  • #9,727
  • Edited 2:27pm Feb 7, 2014 2:09pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} It is raw slippage. SL was set to 15, got out with -34.. I did not move SL up, (got distracted because I was recording the event with screen capture software lol. A no-go next time for sure.) If I have followed the rules on page 1 with 50 TP it would have been cool Have a great weekend all. PC
and

Quoting shellsnail
{quote} lol this means they are putting you in the B-book, and they expect you to lose all your balance to them eventually. None of your orders are executed to the market directly. If it was through the A-book it'll have slippage and lags. This means there's a conflict of interest because they can manipulate the price feed and stop you out hence guaranteed stop loss LOL.
This issue of brokers and slippage remains me of how brokers operate, and more precisely, how banks operate. Those are just my two cents in this highly educational thread. Please remember that Forex turnover- the orders, go mainly through banks, or central banks, huge institutions that are obliged to take the other side of the trade even if it would mean losing money for them. Banks earn from other activities than Forex trading, brokers' only revenue comes from dealing. Would a broker act as a charity insitution and take the other (losing) side of a trade in such scenarios as during news, when the market is skyrocketing? We must remember that for every buy in the market there must be a sell, i.e. for every person willing to buy there must be a person willing to sell. Of cource various investors trade in different timeframes and have diff. perspectives, but when the price shoots to the moon or the other way drops to the core of the earth, who will be willing to take the other side of the trade at that time (except those institutions that have obliged themselves)? [just to edit at this point, such cases are non-formally called vacuume moves, where for example for a short period of time the majority is only willing to buy, or only to sell] Brokers in their Terms of Use put statements that do not oblige them to respect SLs under certain conditions, mind that. I do not trade this Tony's news style (yet but I once used a strategy which worked great up to the time when there was a price gap of more than 50 pips (my SL was supposed to be 10), it was a martingale, and that gap trade was with quite a big lot as for the trading plan. Such a gap resulted in a loss 5x as it should be, making it impossible to recover with this strategy. Lesson learned, do not trade in a way that is "broker sensitive", or change your broker

Guys, great thread, Tony, keep it up, I hope you'll agree that you've earned your discoballs this week for not braking the rules and following the plan. The 5 pip SL was lucky on the one hand, on the other it was a part of the plan to BE asap as I understand it. Time to wind down.
  • #9,728
  • Feb 7, 2014 3:15pm Feb 7, 2014 3:15pm
<p>
Quoting Claudius
{quote} The Spanish Inquisition has come.
My views are far beyond that. Actually i never heard of that before, i just "googled" it, but what i said wasn't just about that.
  • #9,729
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:34pm Feb 7, 2014 5:34pm
This time NFP didn't work but maybe next time it will!! And if it doesn't well there always a next time! lol

Good things are here and good things are coming my friends.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,730
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:44pm Feb 7, 2014 5:44pm
Sorry to hear some of you got burnt so bad.

Besides proper money management, the right broker also makes a huge difference trading the news and I can't use one of my brokers for this trading style. Here's a sickening comparison of 2 brokers I use, Tradestation and MB Trading. Tradestation is a dealing desk broker and part of IBFX and MB Trading is STP no dealing desk.

Tradestation halted trading at 08:30:02 NY at 102.451 and restarted trading at 08:30:21 at 101.513... A full 19 seconds and 93.8 pips lower. That's pure dealing desk bull sh*t and it wasn't a problem with their system during just this news release, I've been with them about a year now and they do it on every major news release. Hasn't been a problem for me before as I've been swing trading daily charts but I always sit down and watch the fireworks during NFP.

MB Trading which I used for a few years ran fine through this 19 second stoppage that Tradestation did. I like the Tradestation platform but it's definitely not the right one for me to trade news with.

Here's a comparison using 1 second charts. 1st 2 are Tradestation and the 3rd is MB Trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Feb_7_a1.jpg Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Feb_7_a2.jpg Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Feb_7_a4.jpg Size: 121 KB
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,731
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:12pm Feb 7, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting PipKiller
Sorry to hear some of you got burnt so bad. Besides proper money management, the right broker also makes a huge difference trading the news and I can't use one of my brokers for this trading style. Here's a sickening comparison of 2 brokers I use, Tradestation and MB Trading. Tradestation is a dealing desk broker and part of IBFX and MB Trading is STP no dealing desk. Tradestation halted trading at 08:30:02 NY at 102.451 and restarted trading at 08:30:21 at 101.513... A full 19 seconds and 93.8 pips lower. That's pure dealing desk bull sh*t and...

you folks need to figure out which is the best broker to trade the news, i.e no slippage, no screen freeze, no messing about.

oanda are supposed to be the better option, not anymore....
  • #9,732
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:20pm Feb 7, 2014 6:20pm
Question for you Tony on your rules. I need a little clarification.

In moving the stop loss in the last few seconds before the news release, should the stop on this trade have been moved to break even since price had already gone up about 20 pips since the 8:28 am NY entry and the 8:30 public news release.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,733
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:13pm Feb 7, 2014 7:13pm
a lot of the trouble also depends on the pair you are trading.

i assume you are only trading either gbp/usd, or eurusd. if you had traded a less popular pair, say usd/cad i doubt you would experience similar problems ?
  • #9,734
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:07pm Feb 7, 2014 9:07pm
Talking about slippage or spikes, you you may want to watch this about virtual dealer plug inn (Who trades MT4 platform). A lot of can be done in few seconds....


Inserted Video




Use HD settings


  • #9,735
  • Feb 8, 2014 10:54am Feb 8, 2014 10:54am
Quoting PipKiller
Question for you Tony on your rules. I need a little clarification. In moving the stop loss in the last few seconds before the news release, should the stop on this trade have been moved to break even since price had already gone up about 20 pips since the 8:28 am NY entry and the 8:30 public news release.

100%, got it right. It could even happen that you are above break-even... e.g. SL at + 5. Trailing SL
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,736
  • Feb 8, 2014 12:00pm Feb 8, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting Tony112
{quote} 100%, got it right. It could even happen that you are above break-even... e.g. SL at + 5. Trailing SL

Thank you sir.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,737
  • Feb 8, 2014 12:35pm Feb 8, 2014 12:35pm
Tony, did not you try also to take long trades on CADJPY for example as the Canadian news are released at the same time as NFP and also give good pips(+50)?
  • #9,738
  • Feb 8, 2014 3:58pm Feb 8, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting romant
Tony, did not you try also to take long trades on CADJPY for example as the Canadian news are released at the same time as NFP and also give good pips(+50)?

It's an idea... I'll have to check what king of spread I'm dealing with and also to see the average impact. For sure these news will create alot of volatility on CAD
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #9,739
  • Feb 8, 2014 4:41pm Feb 8, 2014 4:41pm
Good evening Tony,

I come from a very mathematical, quantitative(statistical)/automated background. Most systems that I have seen floating around have been 100% technical but yours is refreshing as in it's 100% fundamental with a disciplined action (if I am correct) and a high statistical correlation. I'm curious, I've read a lot of your thread but I've noticed your strategy has considerably evolved over time. Is it exactly as page 1's first post as it is now? do you still trade eur/usd with the exact same stop losses? Do you trade with 50x the leverage? also is your initial TP set to 100? Sorry to bombard you with questions! I would have read the thread but all the changes have confused me.

Feel free to mention any site that you may have If you have this system in more detail

Hope you had a wonderful trading week

Regards
N
  • #9,740
  • Feb 8, 2014 6:56pm Feb 8, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting nitecop
Good evening Tony, I come from a very mathematical, quantitative(statistical)/automated background. Most systems that I have seen floating around have been 100% technical but yours is refreshing as in it's 100% fundamental with a disciplined action (if I am correct) and a high statistical correlation. I'm curious, I've read a lot of your thread but I've noticed your strategy has considerably evolved over time. Is it exactly as page 1's first post as it is now? do you still trade eur/usd with the exact same stop losses? Do you trade with 50x the...

1st page is the one that explains the most recent technique! I've evolved to what works best.
Invest in alarm clocks
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