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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #129,821
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:51am Feb 7, 2014 4:51am
Quoting Berserker
EURAUD - Went long last night on daily close pinbar. Market has been ranging between 1.55 and 1.50 since beginning of December, and we had a long pinbar of the bottom S/R. Had to put in a big stop, so had to drop my price per pip to keep within my 2% capital risk. So, Tail Gunner, have I got traffic here? It seems that we at the bottom of a good swing low, and it certainly doesn't look as busy as the NZDUSD I mentioned in previous post, although I'm concerned my idea of what 'traffic' is, is a bit off. One concern though is a daily S/R around 1.53...

I think you've overlooked a very big Fib making this an easy pass for me, especially now price looks like it respects the line.

Hope it helps.

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It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #129,822
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:59am Feb 7, 2014 4:59am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} I think you've overlooked a very big Fib making this an easy pass for me, especially now price looks like it respects the line. Hope it helps. {image} {image}
Yep, that monthly fib hits bang on my buy point. There's also the monthly 150ema there too. And price is stalling.

You know, I never look up to the monthly when analysing trades, only daily, and weekly, pretty much, using the weekly to get an idea of bigger trend and big S/R lines.

I'd worry about getting analysis paralysis if I start including monthly too... Not sure which is right way to go. This is why I'm here though, to figure it out!

Cheers
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #129,823
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:16am Feb 7, 2014 5:16am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} I don't yet have the patience, or guts for the drawdowns, in monthlies! Good luck to you
I think if you have trouble keeping patient, the monthlies might just be good excercise !
They are also more succesful than lower TF, which should require less guts!
Remember that 1% (or whatever % risk) is just that, no matter if its about 10 pips or 1,000.

I started my trading as a noob playing tick charts and martingale grids (on demo though ), then I found charts and technical analysis.
So I went on to 1m up to 15m, and as expected I blew about every acc. i've ever touched over the past 5 years.

I have found that a great deal of understanding how this market works and what doesn't, I've learnt from failures.
Trying every shortcut you can think of; get creative!
As creative as the my thoughts at times could be, no shortcut has ever proven fruitful, other than that I've become more aware of things that can cause trouble.

As I started following this thread more, I started to trade higher time frames and I really like them .

I'm not a stranger to the struggles with patience tho.
If I may give you one tip you might find useful:

Open up "chess titans" and set it to a difficulty level that is easy to beat for you, but will sting you when you're not paying attention.
Level 3/4 should do the job.
The key objective here is to try, in a playful manner, to objectively test your analytical/strategic capabilities.
If you make a habit of this, (playing to kill boredom), you will start to see the same patterns & pitfalls in your game as you are likely struggling with in FX.

Finding out how well you relate to stress, impulses, boredom, drawdown, etc. and if it may be best to take a 15m outdoor walk around the block too cool your head, or don't trade at all if you can't beat lvl. 3 and feel angry and revengeful because of the loss, that may save you some stinging impulse losses.
Last note on this, even if the CPU is kicking your ass, you should finish the game nontheless, just like you wouldn't abandon a losing position, just because if feels less convenient.
It all about analising the position for both black & white, both buyers & sellers.

Hope it helps in some way
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #129,824
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:28am Feb 7, 2014 5:28am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} Yep, that monthly fib hits bang on my buy point. There's also the monthly 150ema there too. And price is stalling. You know, I never look up to the monthly when analysing trades, only daily, and weekly, pretty much, using the weekly to get an idea of bigger trend and big S/R lines. I'd worry about getting analysis paralysis if I start including monthly too... Not sure which is right way to go. This is why I'm here though, to figure it out! Cheers
Try to look at those monthies at fixed times, but not too often.
Naturally, a MN doesn't fluctuate fast, so the picture of these timeframes will gradually burn into you long-term memory.
Give all those monthlies a shot at analysis, and use clean charts per trading/analysis cycle, using only the lines/pattens indies, that are relevant to the story, in Your opinion.

I'm convinced you'll pick up on this .
(as your signature points out, it's a great deal about implementing constructive !habits!).
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #129,825
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:46am Feb 7, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} I think if you have trouble keeping patient... Hope it helps in some way
Wow, lot of info there Donaciello in those two posts, a BIG thanks for taking the time to put all that down for me I'll certainly read it a few times and ( try to ) digest it all.

Chess Titans - interesting idea, I'll give it a go! I never would have thought of relating Chess to my trading...

Failure - you mention you have learnt everything you know through failing - I'm a great believer in this. Mainly because I have spent my life being scared of failure and trying to avoid it - and that mindset has got me nowhere... One needs to take risks, to fail, and to try again, and again etc etc. This is why I love demo accounts - I think it was James16 who said there was never any need to lose big money in this game - we can FAIL as many times as we like on demo. So I have to be in it for the long haul, and I have to be prepared to make really dumb mistakes. The bonus is a forum like this where people are willing to point out where I've gone wrong, why I'm wrong, and to give suggestions how I can veer towards being right.

Great stuff

And I'll start paying those monthlies some attention - add it to my routine

Cheers
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #129,826
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:15am Feb 7, 2014 6:15am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} Wow, lot of info there Donaciello in those two posts, a BIG thanks for taking the time to put all that down for me I'll certainly read it a few times and ( try to ) digest it all. Chess Titans - interesting idea, I'll give it a go! I never would have thought of relating Chess to my trading... Failure - you mention you have learnt everything you know through failing - I'm a great believer in this. Mainly because I have spent my life being scared of failure and trying to avoid it - and that mindset has got me nowhere... One needs...
You're very welcome.

I really enjoy getting more involved with this thread after having been lurking in the background for 3 o_O??!! Yes... 3 years!
I can get really emotionally when I look back at the numerous times I felt utter desparation after taking another full bar loss Counter trend, or in traffic.
You'll undoubtedly recognize the situation where you look back a trade you took some 24H ago and loudly ask yourself WTF where you thinking??
And how could you have failed to see all the red flags when in the trade... gut wrenching, even tho it's demo.

Just never forget that no matter how rough failure can fall on your plate; knowing that with the right mindset, it's just going to be a matter of time and devotion untill it's you and other sole survivors that got the world by the balls for taking money without adding value.
Basically retirering before age 40 is not an unlikely scenario for me as im just 22.
I just need to focus on the work and deviate from the right track as little as possible.

A word on Failure (and more specifically the paralyzing anxiety towards failure)
In the past 3 year I've lived a double life as a pretendstudent on the one hand and drop-out on the other.
I've hidden my failure in a web of lies that eventually got out.
Long story short, I've lived without income for over a year, with bills piling up and all, just because I was scared that when I'd apply for Social security, I'd fail.

Failure has paralyzed me in my past more than I could bear to admit.

Realizing that in the end none of it means anything anyway.

We're just molecules that wonder why it wonders at all
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #129,827
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:25am Feb 7, 2014 6:25am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} Yep, that monthly fib hits bang on my buy point. There's also the monthly 150ema there too. And price is stalling. You know, I never look up to the monthly when analysing trades, only daily, and weekly, pretty much, using the weekly to get an idea of bigger trend and big S/R lines. I'd worry about getting analysis paralysis if I start including monthly too... Not sure which is right way to go. This is why I'm here though, to figure it out! Cheers
I took EURAUD also. I love the level. It's been use 3 times as a resistance and 3 times as a support it's almost at BRN 1.5000. With trend. at 38.2 FIB with close above it. My first TP is at 1.53, second one at 1.55. I'll move my SL to 1.5090 if 1.5115 will hold today.
I'd fine reasons not to take this trade but LOCATION and bar itself just look so good. If it's looser, so be it, that's part of the game.
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  • #129,828
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:27am Feb 7, 2014 6:27am
Quoting michal7
{quote} I took EURAUD also. I love the level. It's been use 3 times as a resistance and 3 times as a support it's almost at BRN 1.5000. With trend. at 38.2 FIB with close above it. My first TP is at 1.53, second one at 1.55. I'll move my SL to 1.5090 if 1.5115 will hold today. I'd fine reasons not to take this trade but LOCATION and bar itself just look so good. If it's looser, so be it, that's part of the game. {image}
I'd grade it a B- at best.
Tradable, sure, I'd like to BE on this though, trying to keep up with the top 5%

PS: Your analysis is not wrong though.. seems like you have a plan with this one and you've marked you fta well.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #129,829
  • Feb 7, 2014 6:47am Feb 7, 2014 6:47am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} I'd grade it a B- at best. Tradable, sure, I'd like to BE on this though, trying to keep up with the top 5% PS: Your analysis is not wrong though.. seems like you have a plan with this one and you've marked you fta well.
There are just 3 kinds of setups for me. 1, Those that I don't take. 2, A+++. 3, The rest.
This is in "the rest" category obviously.
I handle these with just 3 rules: 1, lower my risk fast 2, go to BE fast 3, take my profits fast

What I write here is very different from what I planned to do before going live(I made few post about my strategy and backtests) but with real money on the table feelings kick in hard and I had to adjust.
  • #129,830
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:02am Feb 7, 2014 7:02am
Quoting michal7
{quote} There are just 3 kinds of setups for me. 1, Those that I don't take. 2, A+++. 3, The rest. This is in "the rest" category obviously. I handle these with just 3 rules: 1, lower my risk fast 2, go to BE fast 3, take my profits fast What I write here is very different from what I planned to do before going live(I made few post about my strategy and backtests) but with real money on the table feelings kick in hard and I had to adjust.
It's pretty similar to how I'd describe my trading, although I dont actually divide catogories as such.
Turns out that settling for less reward than risk really suits my personality.
The pitfall I think is when you TP earlier then SL, you tend to fit a lot more trades that could very well work as long as your quickly to TP, but doing this succesful some times, I tend to wipe it out because a clearly inferior setup 'somehow seemed likely' with TP closeby.

There are some examples of it in my explorer.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #129,831
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:12am Feb 7, 2014 7:12am
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} You're very welcome.... We're just molecules that wonder why it wonders at all
Thanks for well thought out and honest post!

I'm 36 and it's taken me until now to get a hold on this failure/mindset thing - I spent my 20's and early 30's drinking and partying far too much when I should have been learning PA - but that ( or any other method of existence but 9-5 and dulling the senses ) would have been impossible for me -my perception of the world at the time wouldn't have allowed me to see any other possibility.

Working full time and making money for other people is no fun - but I have never cultivated the correct mindset to be able to break from that easy, well-trodden ( and ultimately soul destroying ) path, until now. Now I have the mindset, I have to get the minerals, and this is done slowly, day by day, big mistakes and little successes. I just hope I have the determination and courage to go the distance.

Go Forex! Go James16!

Oh - a note on looking back at trades. I've already noticed this, and it's great. Looking back over my trading diary for December and I am amazed at the ridiculous trading decisions I made! It's a great sign of progress for me to see the gaping holes in my analysis, from just a few months ago.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #129,832
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:18am Feb 7, 2014 7:18am
Quoting michal7
{quote} I took EURAUD also. I love the level. It's been use 3 times as a resistance and 3 times as a support it's almost at BRN 1.5000. With trend. at 38.2 FIB with close above it. My first TP is at 1.53, second one at 1.55. I'll move my SL to 1.5090 if 1.5115 will hold today. I'd fine reasons not to take this trade but LOCATION and bar itself just look so good. If it's looser, so be it, that's part of the game. {image}
I have exactly the same trouble and profit spots marked. Except I don't take partial profits, so I will be looking to tail a tight stop if we get over 1.53.

I also liked the fact this level has been well-respected since August last year.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #129,833
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:31am Feb 7, 2014 7:31am
Concerning the EURAUD trade i think the the pinbar is too small compared to the down bars of the swing together with the FTA so close made me sit this one out. A good way that i've found to determine whether a PA bar is big or not is to pull the fib retracement tool in metatrader over the entire bar that is the whole length and then with the length gotten i compare it's length on the other bars of the swing. If it is bigger than 80% of the bars then i consider it big enough. But this is just my way of determining if a bar is big enough.
Hope it helps someone.

Al.
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  • #129,834
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:46am Feb 7, 2014 7:46am
Quoting albus999
Concerning the EURAUD trade i think the the pinbar is too small compared to the down bars of the swing together with the FTA so close made me sit this one out. A good way that i've found to determine whether a PA bar is big or not is to pull the fib retracement tool in metatrader over the entire bar that is the whole length and then with the length gotten i compare it's length on the other bars of the swing. If it is bigger than 80% of the bars then i consider it big enough. But this is just my way of determining if a bar is big enough. Hope it...
Thanks Albus - I remember mbqb11 also mentioning the danger of using a pin relatively small to the preceding bars.

One thing I noticed, though, was the previous bar, the left eye - a smaller (bullish) inside bar. Maybe this was an indication that most of the 'falling knife' momentum had been taken out of the move?
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #129,835
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:02am Feb 7, 2014 8:02am
<p>
Quoting Berserker
{quote} Thanks Albus - I remember mbqb11 also mentioning the danger of using a pin relatively small to the preceding bars. One thing I noticed, though, was the previous bar, the left eye - a smaller (bullish) inside bar. Maybe this was an indication that most of the 'falling knife' momentum had been taken out of the move?
</p>
<p></p>
I'm not too familiar with inside bars but what i know is that they indicate a consolidation zone on a much smaller scale than the timeframe it is seen on. And consolidation zones tell me there is indecision. I don't use inside bars but what i know is that for it to indicate a halt in momentum then it has to be at a critical level for which this one is not at that level 1.5000.
  • #129,836
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:15am Feb 7, 2014 8:15am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} Thanks Albus - I remember mbqb11 also mentioning the danger of using a pin relatively small to the preceding bars. One thing I noticed, though, was the previous bar, the left eye - a smaller (bullish) inside bar. Maybe this was an indication that most of the 'falling knife' momentum had been taken out of the move?
That piece of info could go both ways actually. As Albus said, an inside bar appearing before price hits a PPZ (and prints a pin bar) may point to what you're saying, but may also be a sign that price is taking that little bit of a breather it needs before it decides to push through (hint: Notice how often price will halt prior to a breakout of a PPZ / trend line / RN etc) in which case the pin bar would be more of a knee jerk reaction that would only allow price to fill in the wick and move through.

Again to keep things simple, try not to over think a situation. A small pin bar is just that - a small pin bar. An inside bar before or after it, isn't going to change that fact. Work on the bigger elements around your bars and you're smack on the right track.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #129,837
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:23am Feb 7, 2014 9:23am
Albus and Ghous - You're both right. I need to keep things simple and read what i see, not change it into what I want to see.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #129,838
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:45am Feb 7, 2014 11:45am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} You know, I never look up to the monthly when analysing trades, only daily, and weekly, pretty much, using the weekly to get an idea of bigger trend and big S/R lines. I'd worry about getting analysis paralysis if I start including monthly too... Not sure which is right way to go. This is why I'm here though, to figure it out! Cheers
I have noticed that there is a division of thought between reviewing other time frames when making a trade. Right now, I follow the advice of James16 in post number 16,519, for the reasons that you gave (getting analysis paralysis by second-guessing yourself):

Quote
many traders here do very well using multiple time frames. some of you will find it virtually impossible to do which is fine as it does me also. i rarely look at more than one time frame when trading with pa and s/r. it causes me to second guess muself which is what it did to you jim. dont do it if you find it handcuffs you.

According to my notes, that is probably the minority view (if I had to guess), but for the present time I defer to James16.

When I trade the daily chart I take a very quick look at the weekly and monthly charts for two reasons. First, to determine the overall trend. I like to verify whether I am trading with the trend or taking a CT trade, which you cannot always determine from the daily chart. Second, if I am trading a swing high or swing low, I like to know whether that is also a swing point on a higher time frame.
Forex is for the lifestyle.
  • #129,839
  • Feb 7, 2014 12:14pm Feb 7, 2014 12:14pm
Nice bounce on weekly support level with PA.
Unfortunately, my position was out due to break-even before bullish movement start, but was nice setup.
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  • #129,840
  • Feb 7, 2014 1:02pm Feb 7, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting Tail Gunner
{quote}When I trade the daily chart I take a very quick look at the weekly and monthly charts for two reasons. First, to determine the overall trend. I like to verify whether I am trading with the trend or taking a CT trade, which you cannot always determine from the daily chart. Second, if I am trading a swing high or swing low, I like to know whether that is also a swing point on a higher time frame.
That's pretty much what I've been doing up to now - but only with the weekly. As I mentioned previously, I think I'll start including monthlies in my market overview, but don't want to get too involved for now.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
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