Sultans of Swing

1. The global economy looks poised to accelerate this year. While China is set to decelerate as rebalancing bites into growth, others seem ready to take up the baton. Buoyed by more competitive currencies, emerging economies have potential to bounce back, while advanced nations should also improve led by a US economy which seems to have regained its vigour. We continue to expect world GDP growth of around 3.7% this year.
2. Fourth quarter GDP wasn’t available at the time of this writing, but it’s clear that the US economy had yet another strong showing as the private sector fired from all cylinders with significant contributions from consumers, business investment spending, and even trade. Momentum seems to have extended to this year, setting up the world’s largest economy for a sharp acceleration on the back of a stronger private sector and a smaller fiscal drag. We have raised by one tick our call for 2014 US growth to 2.8%.
3. The Bank of Canada didn’t feel the need to provide more stimulus in January. The slumping loonie had already given a dose of stimulus to a Canadian economy that doesn’t seem to need it considering the above potential pace of growth in the second half of last year. Perhaps Canada’s economy is in a better shape than what markets seem to believe. We have raised by one tick our forecast for 2014 growth to 2.3%.

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