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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,641
  • Feb 6, 2014 4:37pm Feb 6, 2014 4:37pm
A move above the previous high has the potential to make it bullish back to 168 or so, then higher after a fall back.

A weekly close below 165/164.9 puts it underneath resistance for next week, for an eventual further drop.
  • #10,642
  • Feb 6, 2014 7:07pm Feb 6, 2014 7:07pm
Hmmm, MPT. I noticed the Nikkei opened 255 points higher but GJ refuses to budge an hour into the session. I sold it at 166.48. Appears to be refusing to vault the Weekly S1 at 166.51 and stay up there. Could this be it? Very early in Tokyo to say still.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,643
  • Feb 6, 2014 7:27pm Feb 6, 2014 7:27pm
Perhaps we are seeing some the new nature of the markets Japanese style now. The U.S. markets have become a stimulus addict and we've already seen the effects of the withdrawal in regard to some of the easing being removed from the markets. The corporate tax effect is unknown, the new equity incentive plan is just coming online so no dice there.

I think maybe we are going to be seeing these lower ranges until they get more stimulus in April or else. The cool thing is that last Apr 3, GJ blasted off in a 3 day 1,800 pip firework display. We'll see something similar if the BOJ announces more bond purchases this April as well. If they don't then the market just kind of drags along and surely the 174.82 was the top.

I think they have too now because just like the U.S. it has become addicted and unwinding the program without damage has shown to be really challenging. MOAR! WE NEED MOAR!
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,644
  • Feb 6, 2014 7:32pm Feb 6, 2014 7:32pm
If it breaks 167 area it changes things, if it turns lower from here looking for a new low approx 161 where i would likely be a buyer if it was showing right signs (i.e. divergence)
  • #10,645
  • Feb 6, 2014 8:49pm Feb 6, 2014 8:49pm
I have 162.50 eventually. Had to go long again as Tokyo is waking up.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,646
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:00pm Feb 6, 2014 9:00pm
No, price is holding at the same time I'm sensing a reluctance to move on after swinging up more than 250 pips already. Many times the math is just staring us in the face. Is this a market environment where all is well and so much that we have a renewed risk-on mode to be bidders even though it's up 250 plus? I'm not convinced.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,647
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:04pm Feb 6, 2014 9:04pm
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I also believe we are heading to 167.50 /168.75 before we retrace.
  • #10,648
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:15pm Feb 6, 2014 9:15pm
Yeah... concur with the above sentiments at best we get a dip to like 165.9x-166.2x or something but then it has to go up at least through 167. looking for new sells at 168.50 if we get there. the reality may be more complex but the naive obvious route is this way
  • #10,649
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:24pm Feb 6, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting Temujin
No, price is holding at the same time I'm sensing a reluctance to move on after swinging up more than 250 pips already. Many times the math is just staring us in the face. Is this a market environment where all is well and so much that we have a renewed risk-on mode to be bidders even though it's up 250 plus? I'm not convinced.
The reason for the confusion is that GJ has a track record of being able to make corrections appear as a new trend, and trends to appear as a correction.

Over 166.8 ish, it would probably head for 168/168.3 or so. Back under 166 and 165.7, it moves down.
  • #10,650
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:34pm Feb 6, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting Temujin
I have 162.50 eventually. Had to go long again as Tokyo is waking up.
It's coming up on lunch time in Tokyo.
  • #10,651
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:59pm Feb 6, 2014 9:59pm
Hmmm So that is where confusion for me comes in then. Good you have some clear criteria we can verify things with. So at this point we either have a roll over or a new channel development.

So the 90 SMA line on the daily chart will either be a launching pad or a drop off point.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,652
  • Feb 6, 2014 10:10pm Feb 6, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting Temujin
Hmmm So that is where confusion for me comes in then. Good you have some clear criteria we can verify things with. So at this point we either have a roll over or a new channel development. So the 90 SMA line on the daily chart will either be a launching pad or a drop off point.
no man's land now.
  • #10,653
  • Edited 11:42pm Feb 6, 2014 10:56pm | Edited 11:42pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} no man's land now.
Yeah, that's basically it. If you're watching it, just look at the daily candle. Anything under that will give you a false indication.

BTW 166.8 is the 38.2 retracement of the move 171.4 ~ 163.8
  • #10,654
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:53pm Feb 6, 2014 11:53pm
Im a big gj lover, here is what Im seeing. What do you guys think?


Btw, nice thread guys.

Cheers!
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Preservation of capital and home runs!
  • #10,655
  • Feb 7, 2014 12:00am Feb 7, 2014 12:00am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yeah, that's basically it. If you're watching it, just look at the daily candle. Anything under that will give you a false indication.
Being most of the risk in Europe, UK and US now and considering big money flows from messy EM, I think GBPJPY should drop a little bit later today. I say "should" as today is Friday so I concentrate on PA rather than anything else. However, Japan is getting stronger by the day and don't think that corporate tax will have a huge impact in the future. Abenomics is working for now.
  • #10,656
  • Feb 7, 2014 1:51am Feb 7, 2014 1:51am
Quoting Greener
{quote} Being most of the risk in Europe, UK and US now and considering big money flows from messy EM, I think GBPJPY should drop a little bit later today. I say "should" as today is Friday so I concentrate on PA rather than anything else. However, Japan is getting stronger by the day and don't think that corporate tax will have a huge impact in the future. Abenomics is working for now.
Tokyo having fun with JPY...clearly heading north to 167.30 first then resistance at 167.76. At 168 situation becomes bullish for GBPJPY. It doesnt seem this market is looking for safe havens now. Risk is on supported by overall US recovery. GBP is strong ahead of data release.
  • #10,657
  • Edited 5:45am Feb 7, 2014 2:39am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting Greener
{quote} Tokyo having fun with JPY...clearly heading north to 167.30 first then resistance at 167.76. At 168 situation becomes bullish for GBPJPY. It doesnt seem this market is looking for safe havens now. Risk is on supported by overall US recovery. GBP is strong ahead of data release.
I know that everyone, myself included, keeps referencing these key levels that we assume are important. Some people think its bullish. Some think its in a correction.

To me, it has more and more the feel of it just testing and retesting some area it just broke out of - like the underside of a large reversal pattern
  • #10,658
  • Feb 7, 2014 3:13am Feb 7, 2014 3:13am
Quoting Greener
{quote} Tokyo having fun with JPY...clearly heading north to 167.30 first then resistance at 167.76. At 168 situation becomes bullish for GBPJPY. It doesnt seem this market is looking for safe havens now. Risk is on supported by overall US recovery. GBP is strong ahead of data release.
Hmm interesting analysis although my charts differ, both short term and hrly charts indicate bearish bias. The question is momentum if you ask me. I went short at 166.93 based on PA but when we look at what the swing or Moving average traders are looking at we can clearly see the 50 SMA where a bunch of confluences prevail like the fib , 167.00 psych round number,trend lines, former support turned into resistance and so on. If we can just get a break from the constant news cycle that will be great so we can all make some pips. Ive already had to move SL to a little above BE just in preparation of the NEWS, it really sucks. Now just have to hope the momentum goes in the short direction.
This is the 15 min and the other one with the MA is the 4 hr
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  • #10,659
  • Feb 7, 2014 3:24am Feb 7, 2014 3:24am
^ nice clean charts. I also shorted at 167.090 because of the strategy i use. I can see the issue about the news as well as the EMA showing support and resistance not to mention plenty of wiggle room in between those dynamic areas but I do believe that the Daily time frame in which i used to determine my Bearish outlook is commanding those lower time frames so the news spike shouldn't be to severe and if it is make sure those stops are tight!
Taking responsibility means believing that your outcomes are self-generated
  • #10,660
  • Feb 7, 2014 3:32am Feb 7, 2014 3:32am
Quoting Jcandle
^ nice clean charts. I also shorted at 167.090 because of the strategy i use. I can see the issue about the news as well as the EMA showing support and resistance not to mention plenty of wiggle room in between those dynamic areas but I do believe that the Daily time frame in which i used to determine my Bearish outlook is commanding those lower time frames so the news spike shouldn't be to severe and if it is make sure those stops are tight!
Nice , I never trade the news. Maybe occasionally I might fade but right now I moved SL to BE , hopefully it doesnt get whipsawed and stops me out. I pray it moves straight down. GL on your trade Cheers !!
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