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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,601
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:55pm Feb 5, 2014 3:55pm
We're due for some US Dollar gains now...Maybe Japan will start the dollar buying. Time to get crackin' around London Open time. Really early Thursday and Friday.
  • #10,602
  • Feb 5, 2014 10:53pm Feb 5, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting Fx-gtg
{quote} not this but a short from 174.36 did reach 1000 pips

agreed.....
  • #10,603
  • Feb 5, 2014 10:59pm Feb 5, 2014 10:59pm
In My Point OF View it may Comes Down to 156.50 in coming weeks ,initiative will start on today GBP MPC Rate Statement
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  • #10,604
  • Feb 5, 2014 11:10pm Feb 5, 2014 11:10pm
It should now be obvious to anyone that 165.x is thus far the resistance, and I would suggest that 163 is the number to break - or strongly bounce from. There is long term support rising up to 163 .... but there was too at 167 and we know what happened there.

There are many and significant technical reasons that suggest that 163 is a key level (not just 'cause its a simple number), but technical analysis alone does not show direction.
  • #10,605
  • Feb 5, 2014 11:37pm Feb 5, 2014 11:37pm
Quoting Mpt
It should now be obvious to anyone that 165.x is thus far the resistance, and I would suggest that 163 is the number to break - or strongly bounce from. There is long term support rising up to 163 .... but there was too at 167 and we know what happened there. There are many and significant technical reasons that suggest that 163 is a key level (not just 'cause its a simple number), but technical analysis alone does not show direction.
Nothing shows direction or we'd all be millionaires. TA is the only tangible tool that can be used to attempt to predict, by way of historical patterns that are clearly identifiable, where the price may be headed next. Everything else is pure speculation. The only traders who make money in this game are those who understand this.
  • #10,606
  • Feb 5, 2014 11:50pm Feb 5, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Nothing shows direction or we'd all be millionaires. TA is the only tangible tool that can be used to attempt to predict, by way of historical patterns that are clearly identifiable, where the price may be headed next. Everything else is pure speculation. The only traders who make money in this game are those who understand this.
Indeed. The coincidences can build up en masse, then at the last moment all the bloody rules change. You can only do your best.
  • #10,607
  • Feb 6, 2014 12:06am Feb 6, 2014 12:06am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Indeed. The coincidences can build up en masse, then at the last moment all the bloody rules change. You can only do your best.
Not really sure what you mean, but if you're talking about the technical parameters suddenly changing, I've never found that in five years of trading, what worked then still applies. The only thing that varies in the markets is volatility, but that in itself is also a constant in that it is by definition never stable.
  • #10,608
  • Feb 6, 2014 12:14am Feb 6, 2014 12:14am
Getting back to today's set up, I'm hoping it'll continue falling to either the 61.8% or 76.4% fib levels anchored from yesterday's low, from where we may go up again. I don't think we will roll over to make new lows today, and the news out of the UK later will almost certainly be business as usual, so no fireworks there.
  • #10,609
  • Feb 6, 2014 12:26am Feb 6, 2014 12:26am
Quoting cat
{quote} Not really sure what you mean, but if you're talking about the technical parameters suddenly changing, I've never found that in five years of trading, what worked then still applies. The only thing that varies in the markets is volatility, but that in itself is also a constant in that it is by definition never stable.
Just one small example , seeing you're referencing fibs.

In October 2012 GJ broke out from and retested a reversal pattern at 125.6. Using that as the start point for the next 5000 pips, a 23.6 fallback from 174.8 arrives at 163.

There are other factors, both technical and long term historical that highlight 163, but that's just one.

I will also add that in recent times, GJ has been adept at falling back to either the 23.6 or the 33. For some reasons, the 38 et al haven't factored for a couple of years.
  • #10,610
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:19am Feb 6, 2014 1:19am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Just one small example , seeing you're referencing fibs. In October 2012 GJ broke out from and retested a reversal pattern at 125.6. Using that as the start point for the next 5000 pips, a 23.6 fallback from 174.8 arrives at 163. There are other factors, both technical and long term historical that highlight 163, but that's just one. I will also add that in recent times, GJ has been adept at falling back to either the 23.6 or the 33. For some reasons, the 38 et al haven't factored for a couple of years.
I'm not using fibs in isolation, nothing works in isolation. I use trendlines where appropriate, MACD, moving averages and pa to aid me with my trading decisions. When some or all of these combine, is where I make decisions to trade. So the point in 2012 to which you refer, is a great example pf this. A strong bullish pattern emerged in Oct as all my main moving averages moved beneath the pa. there was rejection off support on the 8-11th Oct, in the form of the 76.% fib and the 200ema on the Daily chart, and then exactly the same thing on the 13th Nov, which was the last time it came down again before the end of Jan. When it did, from the 13th Feb, it found support on the 100sma, rallying againup to the 76/4%, before dropping to the 61.8% before powering back up. Now of course with hindsight this is all easy and obvious, but these levels are there, and they are what all traders use to base their trades on. The only thing we have no control over is the news, and attempting to trade is takes you into the realm of the gambler. One thing I have found however is that news will seldom cause the markets to do a complete about turn - if the trend is up say, and the news is contrary to that, then once the dust has settled, price will revert to the norm. So what then causes price to change from bullish to bearish? For me it is technicals, which of course are guided by fundamentals, but the big difference between the two is that you can only guess at fundamentals, where as the technical picture unfolds before your very eyes, which is why trading the markets is possible. What stopped the DOW Jones in its tracks in March 2009? Well, pull up a Quarterly chart and put a 100 simple moving average and you'll see what did.
  • #10,611
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:40am Feb 6, 2014 1:40am
Quoting cat
{quote} I'm not using fibs in isolation, nothing works in isolation. I use trendlines where appropriate, MACD, moving averages and pa to aid me with my trading decisions. When some or all of these combine, is where I make decisions to trade. So the point in 2012 to which you refer, is a great example pf this. A strong bullish pattern emerged in Oct as all my main moving averages moved beneath the pa. there was rejection off support on the 8-11th Oct, in the form of the 76.% fib and the 200ema on the Daily chart, and then exactly the same thing on...
Your point about news (in general) is extremely valid and I wish more people had that view. News will normally take a pair in the direction of the trend, or will (in the case of NFP) take the trend to completion before the reversal. But generally I don't consider it a big deal. Suffice to say, that's why I make a bit of a fuss about determining possible end of trend points.
  • #10,612
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:57am Feb 6, 2014 1:57am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Your point about news (in general) is extremely valid and I wish more people had that view. News will normally take a pair in the direction of the trend, or will (in the case of NFP) take the trend to completion before the reversal. But generally I don't consider it a big deal. Suffice to say, that's why I make a bit of a fuss about determining possible end of trend points.
Yes, determining where the price is about to change direction is the key to trading successfully. Whether you are watching a Daily chart or a 10 second chart, the principles are the same, the lines of support and resistance will be there regardless. What may appear as only a small move without any apparent direction or impetus on a 30 minute chart, can appear as a beautiful technically guided move on a 1 minute chart.
  • #10,613
  • Feb 6, 2014 2:49am Feb 6, 2014 2:49am
ps I really don't expect 163 to hold
  • #10,614
  • Feb 6, 2014 3:51am Feb 6, 2014 3:51am
All you guys make valid points unfortunately im a technical guy before fundamental. Did go in long at 165.30 with a Sl at 164.97 Reduced my position size due to losses in the beginning of the week and of course respect for geppy. first Tp at 165.90 where ill take half off and you know how the rest is done. Cheers
  • #10,615
  • Feb 6, 2014 4:53am Feb 6, 2014 4:53am
I've just closed this morning's short on this pair and am now looking to long.
  • #10,616
  • Feb 6, 2014 5:09am Feb 6, 2014 5:09am
Quoting cat
I've just closed this morning's short on this pair and am now looking to long.
Might be getting out this trade if it closes below the EMA. It also has no momentum , its moving sidewards and I dont like that price action going on . 15 min TF
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  • #10,617
  • Feb 6, 2014 5:11am Feb 6, 2014 5:11am
SMH closed for 3+ pips due to PA probably have to wait till after the news to trade this pair...GL guys no opportunities here for me
  • #10,618
  • Feb 6, 2014 6:24am Feb 6, 2014 6:24am
She's technically screwed now with no clear direction that I can see, Time to look elsewhere.
  • #10,619
  • Feb 6, 2014 6:40am Feb 6, 2014 6:40am
when you look at the 1 hr time frame You see the spinning top indecision candle stick and right after it theres a bearish shooting star forming hence the bearish direction. Ill be looking for short entries since the news has been over for about 30 mins. Ill post if i get that entry as I prefer getting a good price
  • #10,620
  • Feb 6, 2014 6:42am Feb 6, 2014 6:42am
My ideal short entry would be around 165.32 after a small retracement there and SL just 20 pips behind to leave some room for the pair to run. This can give 130 pips today before the average daily range is exausted .
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