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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,541
  • Feb 2, 2014 10:05pm Feb 2, 2014 10:05pm
No, I meant long. This is because despite a sell off in equities where the Japanese move out of stocks and into the Yen the price level has still held. London however will be the determiner for the week. It could suddenly start to break down near the Tokyo close but that is not what I'm seeing now.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,542
  • Feb 2, 2014 10:08pm Feb 2, 2014 10:08pm
Awesome thank you for letting me know.
  • #10,543
  • Feb 2, 2014 10:18pm Feb 2, 2014 10:18pm
Sure feels like support is holding. If this goes up, it could go up as high as 172 to the upper trendline.
  • #10,544
  • Feb 2, 2014 10:55pm Feb 2, 2014 10:55pm
This is the tough part now. The London guys could just say nope, no fundamental change in anything really and just tank it down too. This all started with emerging market hysteria with the U.S. Fed taper as the catalyst. U.S. dollars getting the high yield money in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico etc. started getting yanked out of these markets with the fear interest rates on the dollar would begin to rise.

So the question is has it been contained or will it spread to a full on capital flight to safety in the U.S. and Europe too. I have to say earnings on blue chips, Apple, Amazon so far have been crappy. Bulls gotta stand their ground here but there are many factors that cap this pair at 170.35 until the BOE meeting on the 6th. Also U.S. data must start coming in better. There has to be some factor that improves risk appetite otherwise........166.48?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,545
  • Feb 2, 2014 11:15pm Feb 2, 2014 11:15pm
It has dropped under resistance, but struggles to stay in the daily cloud.

For the last two plus years, similar but opposite price action has been seen a lot - it looked bearish, but it was just consolidating above a support and then turns bullish.

It presently looks bullish - hey, it's even in a descending (bullish) wedge. Some would argue it's "oversold".

In my opinion only, (and it really is just my opinion) I think its all an illusion. This reverse price action hasn't been seen on this pair for a long time. Sometime soon, I think its going to turn down.
  • #10,546
  • Feb 2, 2014 11:49pm Feb 2, 2014 11:49pm
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  • #10,547
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:01am Feb 3, 2014 12:01am
Once in the ichimoku cloud, outside resistance and support are often 'masked' and price traditionally bypasses them.
  • #10,548
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:18am Feb 3, 2014 12:18am
One last comment before I bore anyone. When UJ broke out of its triangle, that triangle has an approximate breakout target of 107/108.

I think UJ met its target. But it did do by playing it out in time, rather than "distance" inside a triangle/reversal pattern. And now I think it returns to the triangle apex, or below. A UJ move under 101.6/7 would support that argument.
  • #10,549
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:22am Feb 3, 2014 12:22am
I think so MPT. The fundamentals are just blown, gone. It's just going into more volatility as markets just don't go straight up or down but eventually it will reach the 165.70 area of Senkou Span B. All these other areas above, it has already been there and got rejected, got the T-shirt and got the hat. Maybe by NY it will be low enough to get some demand.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,550
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:33am Feb 3, 2014 12:33am
Not boring at all MPT, pretty fascinating stuff. Cool you know Wave analysis and Ichimoku. Both are very complex systems. Whoa! The selling is gaining velocity again, not good. I'm try to find an interim support now because selling this low can get me mangled if the S&P has some kind of excuse to rally up.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,551
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:35am Feb 3, 2014 12:35am
Quoting Temujin
I think so MPT. The fundamentals are just blown, gone. It's just going into more volatility as markets just don't go straight up or down but eventually it will reach the 165.70 area of Senkou Span B. All these other areas above, it has already been there and got rejected, got the T-shirt and got the hat. Maybe by NY it will be low enough to get some demand.
I've thought about that level and I guess we'll see. If nothing it would be a good learning experience. But should we drop out of the cloud (and this remains pure speculation), then that level could mark the resistance area to stop breaking back up.

I still suggest very tight stops for the next 150 pips or so.
  • #10,552
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:38am Feb 3, 2014 12:38am
Use NZD/USD as your global growth risk appetite meter. It's fighting.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,553
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:43am Feb 3, 2014 12:43am
Wow, through the cloud on the D1? time are gonna be bad for a while then.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,554
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:45am Feb 3, 2014 12:45am
Quoting Temujin
Wow, through the cloud on the D1? time are gonna be bad for a while then.
Yes, but unless it collapses, it really must have a daily open and close inside the cloud. We opened inside, now must close inside.
  • #10,555
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:57am Feb 3, 2014 12:57am
If the carry trade is fully unwinding and each session cannot reverse the tide the 200 SMA on the daily chart is not until 164.50. Turkey is trying to contain the damage and hiked the rate. The market bought it for a while last week but what about the others, LOL!! I see a 1 Billion dollar option level of 102 with 10 AM NY time as the cut off. Perhaps the bleeding stops here for now.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,556
  • Feb 3, 2014 2:20am Feb 3, 2014 2:20am
Spanish PMI came in very good. 1 down and 5 more to go.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,557
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:38am Feb 3, 2014 3:38am
UK data was less than what was expected with CIPS but in other areas very good. We should see a bounce this week. Euro zone numbers. almost all countries came in well. NY SHOULD rally on the news there is not much evidence for Euro zone deflation. Perhaps GBP/JPY up from here too.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,558
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:30am Feb 3, 2014 4:30am
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  • #10,559
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:54am Feb 3, 2014 4:54am
Quoting Temujin
Oh yes, it's something bigger because this is the 2nd round of another 10 billion dollars in stimulus cut out of this market from the U.S. Fed. It's the entire risk trends market in general and GBP/JPY is a poster boy for that, the alpha dog. It's on both sides of this pair; from England and Japan. it's something CYCLICAL. A multi year USD bull market has been projected to start this year and look at USD/CAD. When you have TRILLIONS in USD that has been pumped into the market for the last 5 years taken away it's going to have an enormous effect....
166 time to wake up
  • #10,560
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:00am Feb 3, 2014 5:00am
Price has now entered my high probability zone. Waiting for a good signal on a lower time frame to long the pair.
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