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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,521
  • Jan 30, 2014 10:31pm Jan 30, 2014 10:31pm
Quoting Temujin
Hey MPT. The pace at which the downside legs have sold off lately is familiar to me. It has the feel of an outright flight to safety. The Japanese CPI numbers mean that the mission is almost accomplished here. Japan for the first time in a many years is out of this deflationary environment. The talk of new measures in April is completely gone now. The emerging markets have been changing, the language from the BOJ has also had a different tune. The Nikkei once again has sold off and 168 has been revealed........again. The BOE is in no rush to raise...
Agreed. For the last few weeks, it has been reasonable to view this a minor correction - and one day the sun will shine again. But it is just remotely possible that we're looking at the start of something bigger.
  • #10,522
  • Jan 30, 2014 10:44pm Jan 30, 2014 10:44pm
Oh yes, it's something bigger because this is the 2nd round of another 10 billion dollars in stimulus cut out of this market from the U.S. Fed. It's the entire risk trends market in general and GBP/JPY is a poster boy for that, the alpha dog. It's on both sides of this pair; from England and Japan. it's something CYCLICAL. A multi year USD bull market has been projected to start this year and look at USD/CAD.

When you have TRILLIONS in USD that has been pumped into the market for the last 5 years taken away it's going to have an enormous effect. It has in Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, etc. Also the global growth behemoth China has contracting PMI for the first time in 6 months.

On top of all this just to be specific to this pair: BOE no rate raise, BOJ no new measures = It should not take 169 yen to buy a 1 quid note.

I should just do like the Ronco Rotisserie, fix the TP to 166 and "SET IT AND FORGET IT."
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,523
  • Jan 31, 2014 12:52am Jan 31, 2014 12:52am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} We are @ Decision Point/Pivot again @ 169.80/60 Place your bets ladys and gents {image}
What is this a chart of RAy?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1391091036
  • #10,524
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:08am Jan 31, 2014 1:08am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,525
  • Jan 31, 2014 6:03am Jan 31, 2014 6:03am
Quoting Temujin
Hey MPT. The pace at which the downside legs have sold off lately is familiar to me. It has the feel of an outright flight to safety. The Japanese CPI numbers mean that the mission is almost accomplished here. Japan for the first time in a many years is out of this deflationary environment. The talk of new measures in April is completely gone now. The emerging markets have been changing, the language from the BOJ has also had a different tune. The Nikkei once again has sold off and 168 has been revealed........again. The BOE is in no rush to raise...
I'm fine with buying at 166/167
  • #10,526
  • Jan 31, 2014 6:31am Jan 31, 2014 6:31am
For sure because then you can get a couple hundred pips as 169 will be the new resistance level.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,527
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:13am Jan 31, 2014 7:13am
Quoting Temujin
For sure because then you can get a couple hundred pips as 169 will be the new resistance level.
For about a week maybe. these pairs are all bullish
  • #10,528
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:22am Jan 31, 2014 7:22am
UJ reconfirmed short two hours ago. (although it may track back up to re-test break out again) Now waiting for GU to break under 1.644
  • #10,529
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:58am Jan 31, 2014 7:58am
Quoting Temujin
For sure because then you can get a couple hundred pips as 169 will be the new resistance level.
Had to take this one. Its just the second Test, very high odds. Be careful at 169.00/168.80 -> Acceleration/Stops
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,530
  • Jan 31, 2014 5:54pm Jan 31, 2014 5:54pm
This was my post on Jan 22........

I see something guys I have to mention. USD/JPY has been stuck in this range right? Deflation in Canada is showing up and the metal prices are depressed now. The FTSE and the DOW are leaking down.

But this one is the barometer I can use for risk appetite. New Zealand is raising rates on the 29th of JAN the BOE did not. Why is NZD/JPY looking like someone just punched it in the gut?

Just when I started typing this I saw a bulletin; China flash PMI data by HSBC was found at 49.6 vs. 50.3 prior. The US Fed is gonna taper another 10 billion this month, so that is what is expected anyway.... GBP and USD and Yen getting stronger too? DXY is up along with all these safe haven currencies.

Guys I don't mean to be a chicken little but THE SKY LOOKS LIKE IT'S ABOUT TO FALL. That is lookin' like a big ass pin bar on this very H4 candle 2 hours into Tokyo.

RUN FOR YOUR LIFE. RUN!!!! RUN!!!!

So From that time until now about 7 trading days GBP/JPY fell 600 pips

In between there was a lot of volatility and speculation of new bullish channels, I also thought so too but the underlying cyclical change in risk appetite remained. Turkey raised interest rates to stop the abnormal FX rates on their end but there was not really much else to stem the tide. I wonder in retrospect could I have just held my ground on the sell? All pairs especially this one experience volatility but they all travel to a daily S/R level somewhere don't they? In hindsight I see the whipsaws really has me going at times. I wonder if I can ever make that longer time frame transition and roll with the punches until the trade arrives at that place.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,531
  • Edited 1:01am Feb 1, 2014 12:35am | Edited 1:01am
Don't become too wedded to the notion of short - or least be cautious. Just under here there is nominal support at 167.3, 167 and about 166.5/6. Any of those supports could send it back very quickly to at least 171/172, if not higher. It may even take the form of a descending wedge to 167 first then 166.5 and that wedge may have already started.

Below 166.5 it probably dumps.

A heightened level of unpredictability comes about because at about 167.7 on Monday/Sunday open (it sits at 167.7/8 now) it's into the ichimoku cloud, so it either rejects quickly or stays inside the cloud.
  • #10,532
  • Feb 1, 2014 9:56am Feb 1, 2014 9:56am
Quoting Mpt
Don't become too wedded to the notion of short - or least be cautious. Just under here there is nominal support at 167.3, 167 and about 166.5/6. Any of those supports could send it back very quickly to at least 171/172, if not higher. It may even take the form of a descending wedge to 167 first then 166.5 and that wedge may have already started. Below 166.5 it probably dumps. A heightened level of unpredictability comes about because at about 167.7 on Monday/Sunday open (it sits at 167.7/8 now) it's into the ichimoku cloud, so it either rejects...
That's good information, and I've been watching for W D Ganns famous historical February 4th.....he was into seasonal reverses I read once.
  • #10,533
  • Feb 1, 2014 10:12am Feb 1, 2014 10:12am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Had to take this one. Its just the second Test, very high odds. Be careful at 169.00/168.80 -> Acceleration/Stops {image}
Thanks for posting those zones....excellent
  • #10,534
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:08pm Feb 2, 2014 4:08pm
The Nikkei and DOW got a good smack down last week. If the emerging market bleed can be reigned in we will see a relief rally and the dragon will go along for the ride.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,535
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:25pm Feb 2, 2014 4:25pm
Was selling rallies all last week. This week might be different. Today is Chinese New Year's celebration so we might not see much movement. We could finally see 163.50 if the current level is broken. I'm also looking at 102 for UJ, which is also a major support. If current level holds, then we might see that bull run. It's a wait and see game. Waiting for the market to present itself. Good luck this week.
  • #10,536
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:27pm Feb 2, 2014 4:27pm
BTW, go Manning and Broncos!!
  • #10,537
  • Edited 6:41pm Feb 2, 2014 6:16pm | Edited 6:41pm
Seattle will take the Bowl from them.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,538
  • Feb 2, 2014 7:27pm Feb 2, 2014 7:27pm
Broncos are surprisingly getting shut out. Who would have thought? That's why I stick to analyzing forex market and not sports...haha. GG.
  • #10,539
  • Feb 2, 2014 9:43pm Feb 2, 2014 9:43pm
Yes, they were utterly obliterated. The Nikkei was also demolished, down 186 points so far. GBP/JPY however is holding the line at 168. Guess what that is indicative of?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,540
  • Feb 2, 2014 9:49pm Feb 2, 2014 9:49pm
Temujin: if its holding the line at 168, I feel it is going to go short. Is this what you are indicating at?
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