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  • #2,701
  • Jan 30, 2014 5:08am Jan 30, 2014 5:08am
Quoting njr
{quote} Yes, I agree IV will drop on opening... But looking at selling the 1250 Call and 960 Put will still net a nice premium for 31 Jan expiry. However, my bigger concern is that GOOG jumped from around 890 to 1015 on their last earning which is about 15%. If they have better than expected earnings a 15% jump will take me ITM on the upside to around 1300...hmmmm
your better off making your trade 10 minutes before closing as Google report earnings after the market closes and then look out how far 15% is but I would go out 20% because Google has move higher than the last time it had reported so the 15% would be a much larger %. Selling premium is good on a stock like this because of the enriched IV and with one day for expiry has a potential super return. How much margin is required?
  • #2,702
  • Jan 30, 2014 5:30am Jan 30, 2014 5:30am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} your better off making your trade 10 minutes before closing as Google report earnings after the market closes and then look out how far 15% is but I would go out 20% because Google has move higher than the last time it had reported so the 15% would be a much larger %. Selling premium is good on a stock like this because of the enriched IV and with one day for expiry has a potential super return. How much margin is required?
Thanks Cecil Gee - Good suggestion about selling just prior to market close......They really rocketed last time and for this earning report, the suggestion for above / below 20% of the current price is certainly the less riskier trade. Maintenance margin is around 12k per contract...Yes, there is certainly potential for a super return....
  • #2,703
  • Jan 30, 2014 8:28am Jan 30, 2014 8:28am
Quoting njr
Hi all, Anyone planning on trading the GOOG earnings (released US after market hours today). Thinking of a strangle with deep OTM to collect a nice premium given the current IV...
not on GOOG but similarly on CMG perhaps, I think call selling looks good across the board in this market
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,704
  • Jan 30, 2014 9:10am Jan 30, 2014 9:10am
Hi,

Ok, I decided to take the plunge. My position:

SOLD 40 GOOG Jan31'14 1400 CALL (GOOG) @AMEX @ 0.4
Deeeeeeeeeeep OTM and strike is approximately 23% above current. GOOG's earnings would need to be very impressive to reach this....
  • #2,705
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:51am Jan 30, 2014 11:51am
will not be opening any new positions until next week as today is the end of month and new month starts tomorrow so institutional traders will move prices to where they want and new zones need to be worked out for the new month
  • #2,706
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:00pm Jan 30, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Instead going in for LVS (las Vegas stands) earnings out later. Bought Feb7 expiration strangle Long call $77.50 call for $1.44 or $144 Long put $70 put for $1.17 or $117 Total $261 per strangle position. LVS realtime price is $74.07 LVS Feb 2014 70.000 put (LVS140222P00070000) -OPR 1.22 {image} 0.31(34.07%) 20:34 LVS Feb 2014 77.500 call (LVS140222C00077500) -OPR 1.46 {image} 0.45(23.56%) 20:38 Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) -NYSE 74.07 {image} 1.19(1.58%) 8:57PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
LVS is up to $77.90, will be holding on to this position until next week as I bought Feb 7 expiration, need $80.

Closed the put leg at 48c earlier, I had paid $1.17 or $117 per strangle contract and the call leg which I'm keeping open is $1.94 or $194 per contract . So overall slightly down but we shall see where it ends up next week
  • #2,707
  • Jan 30, 2014 2:05pm Jan 30, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} LVS is up to $77.90, will be holding on to this position until next week as I bought Feb 7 expiration, need $80. Closed the put leg at 48c earlier, I had paid $1.17 or $117 per strangle contract and the call leg which I'm keeping open is $1.94 or $194 per contract . So overall slightly down but we shall see where it ends up next week
LVS up to $78.44
  • #2,708
  • Jan 30, 2014 2:44pm Jan 30, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} LVS up to $78.44
LVS faked us pretty good AH yesterday & I thought it was going to be a loss, but watched it come back today. A little screen time limited, I put a $0.30 sell order on my 1/31 $79 calls and it got hit. I lost a few bucks there.

My CELG punt is a total loss.

I spread a 1/31 CMG $600c long/$545c short for around $2.75 credit. I am basically unable to believe that a taco restaurant stock could be pumped to ridiculous highs forever.

I strangled CVX 2/7 $114/$119 for around $1.00 net debit. Will correct details later.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,709
  • Jan 30, 2014 2:48pm Jan 30, 2014 2:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} LVS faked us pretty good AH yesterday & I thought it was going to be a loss, but watched it come back today. A little screen time limited, I put a $0.30 sell order on my 1/31 $79 calls and it got hit. I lost a few bucks there. My CELG punt is a total loss. I spread a 1/31 CMG $600c long/$545c short for around $2.75 credit. I am basically unable to believe that a taco restaurant stock could be pumped to ridiculous highs forever. I strangled CVX 2/7 $114/$119 for around $1.00 net debit. Will correct details later.
I think GOOGLE may end up being a massive mover tonight
  • #2,710
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:12pm Jan 30, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think GOOGLE may end up being a massive mover tonight
GOOG earnings adjusted EPS $ 12.01 on $16.86 bln. Missed the expectation.

I don't see the 1400 strike being hit tomorrow......

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101376526

  • #2,711
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:17pm Jan 30, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think GOOGLE may end up being a massive mover tonight
massive mover is CMG, up >$50, >10%, lucky me
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,712
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:27pm Jan 30, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} massive mover is CMG, up >$50, >10%, lucky me
Hey The Fool,

Nice play. I missed that one.....

A great end to the week
  • #2,713
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:50pm Jan 30, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey The Fool, Nice play. I missed that one..... A great end to the week
uuhhh...i'm short the $545 calls....need some profit taking by lucky longs by tomorrow, currently trading at $541
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,714
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:21pm Jan 30, 2014 4:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} uuhhh...i'm short the $545 calls....need some profit taking by lucky longs by tomorrow, currently trading at $541
spectacular bear trap, has me by the ballz. this might cost me $30, might not be able to cover....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,715
  • Jan 31, 2014 12:05am Jan 31, 2014 12:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} uuhhh...i'm short the $545 calls....need some profit taking by lucky longs by tomorrow, currently trading at $541
Opps, sorry about that as I misread your previous post.....looks like I am The Fool...

I hope it all works out and the profit takers come in today. Good luck!!!!!
  • #2,716
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:22am Jan 31, 2014 7:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} spectacular bear trap, has me by the ballz. this might cost me $30, might not be able to cover....
Hey The Fool - Looks like Europe is scaring the US markets....Could be the down day you need to bring CMG under 545.....best of luck!
  • #2,717
  • Jan 31, 2014 9:04am Jan 31, 2014 9:04am
Quoting njr
{quote} GOOG earnings adjusted EPS $ 12.01 on $16.86 bln. Missed the expectation. I don't see the 1400 strike being hit tomorrow...... http://www.cnbc.com/id/101376526

nice trade, what an easy way to earn 1,600 usd in 1 day.... congrats
  • #2,718
  • Jan 31, 2014 9:14am Jan 31, 2014 9:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} spectacular bear trap, has me by the ballz. this might cost me $30, might not be able to cover....
1/31 CMG $545 calls sold for $3.35 had to buy back for $12.80. If I had moved fast at the open I might have bought back for $8.50 or so.

Not a bad idea, just the very very wrong instrument. Most of my heavy losses in options trading over last year or so have been trying to short boutique momo stocks. I might have waited some more to buy back but I don't trust the particular broker not to assign me. Watching CMG it's still rising, up to $565. I put $545 calls about 12% out from the share price when I sold, and in hindsight I might have needed 15% or even 20%, neither of which would have even been worthwhile.

So, costly mistake, burn it into the old brain banana and move on.

In better news, CVX dropped well and my strangle had $114 2/7 puts which I had bought for $0.60, sold for $2.20. Strangle cost was $1.11.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,719
  • Jan 31, 2014 11:26am Jan 31, 2014 11:26am
Quoting brokerr
{quote} nice trade, what an easy way to earn 1,600 usd in 1 day.... congrats
Thanks brokerr
  • #2,720
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:32pm Jan 31, 2014 2:32pm
How you doin' Cecil, what are you looking at for the coming month?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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