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  • #2,681
  • Jan 29, 2014 1:50pm Jan 29, 2014 1:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Watching NFLX, where most of my risk money is now riding short
NFLX looks too strong to short in near-term. I sold 2/7 $377.50 puts @ $2.05, so I'm spread there 2/22 $275p long, 2/7 $277.50p short - net debit $3.80.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,682
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:20pm Jan 29, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Facebook have earnings out tomorrow and I'm looking to take a strangle position into next weeks expiration on Friday, may go out 5 strike prices out

looked now, strangle would be too dear
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,683
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:26pm Jan 29, 2014 2:26pm
LVS reporting shortly, I see they kicked it down from $80+ to $74 in the last week, 1/31/ $79 calls are $0.27
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,684
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:38pm Jan 29, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} They pushed VXX to $46 for me, all I was hoping for, and I got out of the 1/31 $47 calls for $1.00, paid $0.45. If the 1/31 $40 puts die worthless the strangle nets 33%. With a little luck VIX will fall hard now and the puts will be worth selling, too
shoulda sussed a sellout into the close, VXX has gone up to $47....but with decay only another $0.20 up for the calls
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,685
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:49pm Jan 29, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} looked now, strangle would be too dear
not taking Facebook on, IV far too high
  • #2,686
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:58pm Jan 29, 2014 2:58pm
Instead going in for LVS (las Vegas stands) earnings out later. Bought Feb7 expiration strangle

Long call $77.50 call for $1.44 or $144
Long put $70 put for $1.17 or $117

Total $261 per strangle position.

LVS realtime price is $74.07

LVS Feb 2014 70.000 put (LVS140222P00070000)
-OPR
1.22 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.31(34.07%) 20:34


LVS Feb 2014 77.500 call (LVS140222C00077500)
-OPR

1.46 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.45(23.56%) 20:38


Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)
-NYSE

74.07 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 1.19(1.58%) 8:57PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #2,687
  • Jan 29, 2014 3:01pm Jan 29, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
LVS reporting shortly, I see they kicked it down from $80+ to $74 in the last week, 1/31/ $79 calls are $0.27
straight up gambled here, got 1/31 $79 calls for $0.28

also gambled on CELG, got 1/31 $170c for $0.16
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,688
  • Jan 29, 2014 3:02pm Jan 29, 2014 3:02pm
missed this but QCOM would have been a decent trade to put on for its earnings out shortly
  • #2,689
  • Jan 29, 2014 3:23pm Jan 29, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
missed this but QCOM would have been a decent trade to put on for its earnings out shortly

What do you think LVS might do, Cecil? I kinda bought those calls without lots of rumination, saw that it had been ridden down ~$10 in the prior week and guessed the bastards were setting it up for an earnings pop long.

Pretty much the same idea on Celgene.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,690
  • Jan 29, 2014 3:26pm Jan 29, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} What do you think LVS might do, Cecil? .....
down $2.50, yikes....$3....geez
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,691
  • Jan 29, 2014 4:27pm Jan 29, 2014 4:27pm
Earnings reports I will eye the rest of the week include BIDU, CMG, XOM, GOOG, LLY, etc....not looking like any I may move on pre-report but will watch for big moves to fade, etc...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,692
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:39pm Jan 29, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} straight up gambled here, got 1/31 $79 calls for $0.28 also gambled on CELG, got 1/31 $170c for $0.16
AH, LVS retracing, CELG pops $3 to ~$161.50, will need CELG to follow thru tomorrow to at least $165. Huge potential there if she puts on a $5-$10 pop....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,693
  • Edited Jan 30, 2014 12:15am Jan 29, 2014 11:46pm | Edited Jan 30, 2014 12:15am
Quoting The Fool
Earnings reports I will eye the rest of the week include BIDU, CMG, XOM, GOOG, LLY, etc....not looking like any I may move on pre-report but will watch for big moves to fade, etc...
CMG I will likely sell 1/31 far otm calls at the open.

$535 calls give $2.50. I may spread 1/31 long calls @ $0.60-$0.75 (@$565 +/-) if it helps me load multiples of the short calls.

CMG lt $484.50. $50 otm calls with 2 dte give $2.50? fm I need more margin....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-29_cmg.png Size: 127 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,694
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:12am Jan 30, 2014 12:12am
pipple must be having fun. late Spring-early Summer dip is a seasonal play. Cold weather phases out and less natgas is used for heating, but the slack is picked up a bit for ag chemicals...until that season plays out, too. I will be watching, but UNG doesn't really move enough for my taste....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-29_ung.png Size: 119 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,695
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:25am Jan 30, 2014 12:25am
CVX reports premarket 1/31. Melike the look of that chart. 2/7 strangle at $110/$120 (pretty wide) cost ya about $0.55. Need to get in b4 Thursday's bell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-29_cvx.png Size: 133 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,696
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:37am Jan 30, 2014 12:37am
Mattel had a good Xmas? I didn't get no toys. No weeklies. Earnings out 1/31. 2/22 $39/$46 strangle cost about $0.50.


...next Monday, check YUM...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-01-29_mat.png Size: 125 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,697
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:14am Jan 30, 2014 3:14am
Hi all,

Anyone planning on trading the GOOG earnings (released US after market hours today). Thinking of a strangle with deep OTM to collect a nice premium given the current IV...
  • #2,698
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:56am Jan 30, 2014 3:56am
Quoting njr
Hi all, Anyone planning on trading the GOOG earnings (released US after market hours today). Thinking of a strangle with deep OTM to collect a nice premium given the current IV...
that IV will drop on the earnings
  • #2,699
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:58am Jan 30, 2014 3:58am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} that IV will drop on the earnings
opening not earnings
  • #2,700
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:43am Jan 30, 2014 4:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} opening not earnings
Yes, I agree IV will drop on opening...

But looking at selling the 1250 Call and 960 Put will still net a nice premium for 31 Jan expiry. However, my bigger concern is that GOOG jumped from around 890 to 1015 on their last earning which is about 15%. If they have better than expected earnings a 15% jump will take me ITM on the upside to around 1300...hmmmm
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