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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,461
  • Jan 29, 2014 4:12am Jan 29, 2014 4:12am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} There we go, long from 168.20/00 closed @ equilibrium 171.60/40 and reversed. Target are previous support/pivot @ 169.80/60 or further to 168.20/00 @ initial long. If 169.80/60 hold as support I might get long again. Time will tell. Add: "Worst" Case: 166.60/40
Mostly agree. I see it lower for now but would definitely get long @ 167.20 area, if it stops around 169.50 that might be a good spot too.
  • #10,462
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:25am Jan 29, 2014 5:25am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Mostly agree. I see it lower for now but would definitely get long @ 167.20 area, if it stops around 169.50 that might be a good spot too.
Definitely long,Why? Possibly anything can happen, wait and see if it confirms itself as support or resistance. Because if it breaks 169.80/60 not able to close above even if it is traded above its resistance to me, im definitely stay short then until my initial long entry @ 168.20/00 and there I gonna do the same, see if it is Support OR Resistance. Just tell you to be careful, dont get me wrong.

Add:
By the way,
go look back to 169.80/60, it tested the level from below, then broke it to the upside and then tested it from above until it reached 171.60/40, this sequence might repeat again
  • #10,463
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:37am Jan 29, 2014 5:37am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Definitely long,Why? Possibly anything can happen, wait and see if it confirms itself as support or resistance. Because if it breaks 169.80/60 not able to close above even if it is traded above its resistance to me, im definitely stay short then until my initial long entry @ 168.20/00 and there I gonna do the same, see if it is Support OR Resistance. Just tell you to be careful, dont get me wrong. Add: By the way, go look back to 169.80/60, it tested the level from below, then broke it to the upside and then tested it from above until it...
UJ has rejected from its reversal pattern. GU looks like total crap. Yes, good support is down at 167.2 (should it get there). If that level breaks, it goes into the "cloud" and will normally then move to cloud base. That's a long way down. A UJ break below double bottom probably heads to its triangle apex.

ps I know exactly where you come from with your other levels, but we'll see.
  • #10,464
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:50am Jan 29, 2014 5:50am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Definitely long,Why? Possibly anything can happen, wait and see if it confirms itself as support or resistance. Because if it breaks 169.80/60 not able to close above even if it is traded above its resistance to me, im definitely stay short then until my initial long entry @ 168.20/00 and there I gonna do the same, see if it is Support OR Resistance. Just tell you to be careful, dont get me wrong. Add: By the way, go look back to 169.80/60, it tested the level from below, then broke it to the upside and then tested it from above until it...
167.20 is a big level in fibo. equal legs off the high is right around 167.
  • #10,465
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:52am Jan 29, 2014 5:52am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} UJ has rejected from its reversal pattern. GU looks like total crap. Yes, good support is down at 167.2 (should it get there). If that level breaks, it goes into the "cloud" and will normally then move to cloud base. That's a long way down. A UJ break below double bottom probably heads to its triangle apex. ps I know exactly where you come from with your other levels, but we'll see.
Yeah, 165 is really the big spot if we saw that. We'll see what happens in next 24hr.
  • #10,466
  • Jan 29, 2014 6:42am Jan 29, 2014 6:42am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Yeah, 165 is really the big spot if we saw that. We'll see what happens in next 24hr.
I would just love this thing to clear all damned support and run down under 167. At least we can then walk away from the computer for a day or so and pick it when as it bottoms - and have a break from thinking about bloody support and resistance in a correction.
  • #10,467
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:52am Jan 29, 2014 7:52am
I officially hate the yen crosses...
  • #10,468
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:58am Jan 29, 2014 7:58am
Looks like the bearish price action around the 170.7 area paid off. closed for 161 pips
  • #10,469
  • Jan 29, 2014 11:35am Jan 29, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} UJ has rejected from its reversal pattern. GU looks like total crap. Yes, good support is down at 167.2 (should it get there). If that level breaks, it goes into the "cloud" and will normally then move to cloud base. That's a long way down. A UJ break below double bottom probably heads to its triangle apex. ps I know exactly where you come from with your other levels, but we'll see.
Back.

Hope you didnt buy it. Thats what I was talking about. First target filled @ 169.70, still sitting on some lots @ 171.40, next target @ initial long @ 168.20
  • #10,470
  • Jan 29, 2014 12:24pm Jan 29, 2014 12:24pm
Yeah, um I warned you did I not? New bullish channels and all is just great and fixed because Turkey raised interest rates. An emerging market crisis in the making for years has been fixed in an hour. Do you really believe that? I was short from 170.52 and getting beat up some in Tokyo and London. Woke up to many pips in my favor and TP'd it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,471
  • Jan 29, 2014 12:40pm Jan 29, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting Temujin
Yeah, um I warned you did I not? New bullish channels and all is just great and fixed because Turkey raised interest rates. An emerging market crisis in the making for years has been fixed in an hour. Do you really believe that? I was short from 170.52 and getting beat up some in Tokyo and London. Woke up to many pips in my favor and TP'd it.
Didnt pay attention to your posts, I was talking to MPT, since your post is out of context. Btw, im outta here.
  • #10,472
  • Jan 29, 2014 12:40pm Jan 29, 2014 12:40pm
First they induce you, then they reduce you.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,473
  • Jan 29, 2014 1:30pm Jan 29, 2014 1:30pm
Oh, sorry that comment was not pointed at you FX-Ray. Just the bullish mentality in general. I just see some hiccups in market conditions and believe there should be some kind of healthy correction before we head higher. My apologies.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,474
  • Jan 29, 2014 2:35pm Jan 29, 2014 2:35pm
This is my bull(shit)ish outlook, break above 170.8 and then onwards and upwards to 175
but this pair has spanked me one too many times in the last month. If it gets to 175, remind me not to trade it AGAIN
  • #10,475
  • Jan 29, 2014 3:51pm Jan 29, 2014 3:51pm
169 is holding but it is just not showing the same energy but it does not really have to either. It can crawl back up. Amazing. I don't know either right now but that taper sure did knock it down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,476
  • Jan 29, 2014 4:12pm Jan 29, 2014 4:12pm
15M chart has a demanding loud sell signal...alerts...hail of a sell signal, Ladies and Gents. maybe by 7 or 8 pm New York, HUH!!
  • #10,477
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:04pm Jan 29, 2014 5:04pm
What signal? The bulls have towed the line in NY and 169 has held into the new day. Tokyo opens in 57 minutes. Think they will dump it on the taper news?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,478
  • Jan 29, 2014 5:17pm Jan 29, 2014 5:17pm
It's attempting to bottom. A break under the previous low at 168.7 says reversal (to me) . Hold here implies upwards continuation

It all depends now on whether UJ breaks much under its previous low.
  • #10,479
  • Jan 29, 2014 6:11pm Jan 29, 2014 6:11pm
If you look at a lower TF chart, you can see it walking along an ascending trend line (once broken for a moment). I think that is the line in the sand of either a reversal or continuation pattern. Or it's already broken down and is walking underneath the trend line.

Should it break out (down), that line will often be retested.
  • #10,480
  • Jan 29, 2014 6:18pm Jan 29, 2014 6:18pm
Thanks MPT. The Nikkei just tanked but GJ is holding on. Even though the Fed tapered another 10 billion USD on purchases they still committed to keeping interest rates near zero for a long time. That's why we are not seeing this "US dollar bull market" effect the European currencies much at all for now. The talk on new BOJ stimulus in April is starting to fade as prices in Japan are rising and the BOJ programs have become very effective in defeating deflation.

The fundamental reasons for these yen pairs going higher are waning.
Be humble or be humbled.
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