83 needs to be broken. It's trying hard too
- #2,888
- Jan 28, 2014 1:35pm Jan 28, 2014 1:35pm
- Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts
I also thought about longing NZD. Then I just saw this here again: http://charts.mql5.com/3/717/nzdusd-...al-markets.png
Fix up, trade sharp ...
- #2,890
- Jan 28, 2014 2:07pm Jan 28, 2014 2:07pm
- Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts
Please look at your AUD/USD and NZD/USD Charts. Someone is bringing in some small orders 
Fix up, trade sharp ...
- #2,891
- Jan 28, 2014 2:17pm Jan 28, 2014 2:17pm
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Trader | 10,087 Posts
Please look at your AUD/USD and NZD/USD Charts. Someone is bringing in some small orders
Moodys: NZD economy recovers
- #2,892
- Jan 28, 2014 2:19pm Jan 28, 2014 2:19pm
- Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts
Fix up, trade sharp ...
- #2,897
- Jan 29, 2014 4:04am Jan 29, 2014 4:04am
One for you guys...
Ratings
Category
Moody's Rating
Outlook
Stable
Government Bonds
Aaa
Commercial Paper
P-1
Other Short Term -Dom Curr
P-1
New Zealand
Outlook
Stable
Country Ceiling: Fgn Currency Debt
Aaa/P-1
Country Ceiling: Fgn Currency Bank Deposits
Aaa/P-1
Contacts
Analyst
Phone
Steven A. Hess/New York City
1.212.553.1653
Christian de Guzman/Singapore
65.6398.8327
Bart Oosterveld/New York City
1.212.553.1653
Thomas J. Byrne/Singapore
65.6398.8310
Key Indicators
New Zealand
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
Real GDP (% change) [1]
3.5
-1.8
1.5
0.2
2.3
2.9
2.6
3.2
Inflation (CPI, % change Dec/Dec)
3.2
3.4
2.0
4.0
1.8
0.9
1.7
2.2
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP
3.2
1.5
-1.5
-5.1
-4.9
-2.1
-1.3
-0.5
Gen. Gov. Primary Balance/GDP
4.6
2.9
-0.1
-3.2
-2.4
0.5
1.0
1.8
Gen. Gov. Debt/GDP
17.2
20.1
25.9
32.0
37.2
37.8
38.2
37.3
Gen. Gov. Debt/Gen. Gov. Revenue
46.1
54.5
72.4
91.5
106.0
108.6
108.2
105.5
Gen. Gov. Int. Pymt/Gen. Gov. Revenue
3.7
3.8
4.2
5.4
7.0
7.5
6.7
6.3
Current Account Balance/GDP
-10.6
-11.5
-3.6
-4.5
-5.9
-8.0
-7.5
-10.3
[1] National account years ending March 31, e.g. 2005 refers to fiscal year 2005/06
Opinion
Credit Strengths
New Zealand has the following credit strengths:
-- Advanced economy with strong government finances and sound monetary policy
-- Government debt lower than the median for Aaa sovereigns, despite a rise in recent years
-- A strong fiscal framework and political consensus on maintaining balanced budgets and low debt
-- A strong banking system that is mainly foreign owned, lessening the government's contingent liability
Credit Challenges
New Zealand faces the following credit challenges:
-- A resource-based economy that, on balance, remains exposed to volatile export earnings
-- Among the largest net external liability positions of advanced economies
Rating Rationale
New Zealand's Aaa rating is based on the country's high economic strength, very high institutional and government financial strength, and low susceptibility to event risk. New Zealand's flexible and market-oriented economic policies have supported economic performance that has become stronger and less subject to external shocks. Although per capita income is at the low end of the Aaa range, it is nonetheless high by global standards. The relatively small scale of the economy is also a factor considered in assessing economic strength. Institutional strength is very high, as measured by governance, rule of law, and transparency. In addition, Moody's expects that the government, regardless of the party in power, will maintain a policy of low debt and fiscal discipline.
While the fiscal balance deteriorated as a result of a recession and the earthquakes that struck the country in 2010 and 2011, the government that first came into office in 2008 and is now in its second term has indicated its intention to return debt to a prudent level. Gross "total crown" debt should peak at below 40% of GDP before beginning to decline, although the OECD forecasts general government debt to be several percentage points higher. We believe that the debt trajectory and the policies to deal with the recent shocks remain compatible with a Aaa rating.
The external liability position will remain high. However, there are several factors that make the large external liability position less risky than it might appear, including the high proportion of liabilities denominated in NZ dollars and of foreign currency liabilities that are hedged, and the related-party nature of much of bank liabilities. The composition of the external liability position supports an assessment of low susceptibility to event risk.
Rating Outlook
The stable outlook is anchored by the government's low debt relative to most other Aaa-rated countries and our expectation that New Zealand will continue with fiscal and monetary discipline and market-oriented policies.
What Could Change the Rating - Down
A continued upward government debt trajectory in the next few years could cause the rating to move down. A major problem with access to external finance that affected not only New Zealand and the Australian banks that operate in the country would also pressure the rating.
Recent Developments
The government released its Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update on December 17. The fiscal forecasts through 2018 were somewhat more positive than those presented at budget time in May, showing a balanced budget position in the next fiscal year (2014-15), and rising surpluses thereafter. If achieved, these fiscal outcomes would result in a decline in net government debt in the direction of the government's stated target of less than 20% of GDP by 2020. Gross government debt would also fall from its current level of a bit above 35% of GDP to under 30%. Although the current level of government debt is higher than New Zealand's recent historical experience, it remains below the median for sovereigns rated Aaa by Moody's.
Economic growth is accelerating, supportive of the government's effort to eliminate its budget deficit. During the third quarter of 2013, real expenditure GDP rose 1.1% qoq, with a large rise in residential investment being the strongest component. However, non-residential investment was also strong. On the production side, a large part of the rise in real GDP came from the dairy industry, with volume rising strongly as weather conditions improved following a drought.
The acceleration in growth was a factor in a slight widening of the current account deficit, but the net international investment position, which we consider to be New Zealand's biggest vulnerability, remained basically unchanged. The current account deficit increased because of strong growth in imports and, despite the near-record commodity prices, a small decline in exports. The latter reflected the aftermath of the drought, which had reduced the volume of agricultural production. Part of the financing of the current account deficit is still coming from reinsurance payments related to the Christchurch earthquakes. At around 4% of GDP, the current account deficit is lower than during the years prior to the global financial crisis.
Rating Factors
New Zealand, Government of
Rating Factors
Sub-Factor Weighting
Indicator
Factor Score
Factor 1: Economic Strength
H+
Growth Dynamics
50%
Average Real GDP Growth (2008-17F)
1.8
Volatility in Real GDP Growth (Standard Deviation, 2003-12)
1.8
WEF Global Competitiveness Index (2013)
5.1
Scale of the Economy
25%
Nominal GDP (US$ billion, 2012)
171.8
National Income
25%
GDP per Capita (PPP, US$, 2012)
29,481.1
Factor 2: Institutional Strength
VH+
Institutional Framework and Effectiveness
75%
World Bank Government Effectiveness Index (2012)
1.8
World Bank Rule of Law Index (2012)
1.9
World Bank Control of Corruption Index (2012)
2.3
Policy Credibility and Effectiveness
25%
Inflation Level (%, 2008-17F)
2.3
Inflation Volatility (Standard Deviation, 2003-12)
1.0
Economic Resiliency (F1xF2)
VH
Factor 3: Fiscal Strength
VH
Debt Burden
50%
General Government Debt/GDP (2012)
37.8
General Government Debt/Revenues (2012)
108.6
Debt Affordability
50%
General Government Interest Payments/Revenue (2012)
7.5
General Government Interest Payments/GDP (2012)
2.6
Government Financial Strength (F1xF2xF3)
VH
Factor 4: Susceptibility to Event Risk
Max. Function
L-
Political Risk
World Bank Voice & Accountability Index (2012)
1.6
Government Liquidity Risk
Gross Borrowing Requirements/GDP
9.0
Non-Resident Share of General Government Debt (%)
77.8
Market-Implied Ratings
--
Banking Sector Risk
Average Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA)
a3
Total Domestic Bank Assets/GDP
197.8
Banking System Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
147.8
External Vulnerability Risk
(Current Account Balance + FDI Inflows)/GDP
-3.4
External Vulnerability Indicator (EVI)
--
Net International Investment Position/GDP
-73.2
Government Bond Rating Range (F1xF2xF3xF4)
Aa1 - Aa3
Assigned Foreign Currency Government Bond Rating
Aaa
Note: While the information used to determine the grid mapping is mainly historical, our ratings incorporate expectations around future metrics and risk developments that may differ from the ones implied by the rating range. Thus, the rating process is deliberative and not mechanical, meaning that it depends on peer comparisons and should leave room for exceptional risk factors to be taken into account that may result in an assigned rating outside the indicative rating range.
For more information please see our Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology
Footnotes
1) Rating Range: Factors 1, Economic Strength, and Factor 2, Institutional Strength, combine with equal weight into a construct we designate as Economic Resiliency or ER. An aggregation function then combines ER and Factor 3, Fiscal Strength (FS), following a non-linear pattern where FS has higher weight for countries with moderate ER and lower weight for countries with high or low ER. As a final step, Factor 4, a country's Susceptibility to Event Risk, is a constraint which can only lower the preliminary Government Financial Strength rating range as given by combining the first three factors.(2) 15 Ranking Categories: VH+, VH, VH-, H+, H, H-, M+, M, M-, L+, L, L-, VL+, VL, VL-(3) Indicator Value: If not explicitly stated otherwise, the indicator value corresponds to the latest data available.
Ratings
Category
Moody's Rating
Outlook
Stable
Government Bonds
Aaa
Commercial Paper
P-1
Other Short Term -Dom Curr
P-1
New Zealand
Outlook
Stable
Country Ceiling: Fgn Currency Debt
Aaa/P-1
Country Ceiling: Fgn Currency Bank Deposits
Aaa/P-1
Contacts
Analyst
Phone
Steven A. Hess/New York City
1.212.553.1653
Christian de Guzman/Singapore
65.6398.8327
Bart Oosterveld/New York City
1.212.553.1653
Thomas J. Byrne/Singapore
65.6398.8310
Key Indicators
New Zealand
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
Real GDP (% change) [1]
3.5
-1.8
1.5
0.2
2.3
2.9
2.6
3.2
Inflation (CPI, % change Dec/Dec)
3.2
3.4
2.0
4.0
1.8
0.9
1.7
2.2
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP
3.2
1.5
-1.5
-5.1
-4.9
-2.1
-1.3
-0.5
Gen. Gov. Primary Balance/GDP
4.6
2.9
-0.1
-3.2
-2.4
0.5
1.0
1.8
Gen. Gov. Debt/GDP
17.2
20.1
25.9
32.0
37.2
37.8
38.2
37.3
Gen. Gov. Debt/Gen. Gov. Revenue
46.1
54.5
72.4
91.5
106.0
108.6
108.2
105.5
Gen. Gov. Int. Pymt/Gen. Gov. Revenue
3.7
3.8
4.2
5.4
7.0
7.5
6.7
6.3
Current Account Balance/GDP
-10.6
-11.5
-3.6
-4.5
-5.9
-8.0
-7.5
-10.3
[1] National account years ending March 31, e.g. 2005 refers to fiscal year 2005/06
Opinion
Credit Strengths
New Zealand has the following credit strengths:
-- Advanced economy with strong government finances and sound monetary policy
-- Government debt lower than the median for Aaa sovereigns, despite a rise in recent years
-- A strong fiscal framework and political consensus on maintaining balanced budgets and low debt
-- A strong banking system that is mainly foreign owned, lessening the government's contingent liability
Credit Challenges
New Zealand faces the following credit challenges:
-- A resource-based economy that, on balance, remains exposed to volatile export earnings
-- Among the largest net external liability positions of advanced economies
Rating Rationale
New Zealand's Aaa rating is based on the country's high economic strength, very high institutional and government financial strength, and low susceptibility to event risk. New Zealand's flexible and market-oriented economic policies have supported economic performance that has become stronger and less subject to external shocks. Although per capita income is at the low end of the Aaa range, it is nonetheless high by global standards. The relatively small scale of the economy is also a factor considered in assessing economic strength. Institutional strength is very high, as measured by governance, rule of law, and transparency. In addition, Moody's expects that the government, regardless of the party in power, will maintain a policy of low debt and fiscal discipline.
While the fiscal balance deteriorated as a result of a recession and the earthquakes that struck the country in 2010 and 2011, the government that first came into office in 2008 and is now in its second term has indicated its intention to return debt to a prudent level. Gross "total crown" debt should peak at below 40% of GDP before beginning to decline, although the OECD forecasts general government debt to be several percentage points higher. We believe that the debt trajectory and the policies to deal with the recent shocks remain compatible with a Aaa rating.
The external liability position will remain high. However, there are several factors that make the large external liability position less risky than it might appear, including the high proportion of liabilities denominated in NZ dollars and of foreign currency liabilities that are hedged, and the related-party nature of much of bank liabilities. The composition of the external liability position supports an assessment of low susceptibility to event risk.
Rating Outlook
The stable outlook is anchored by the government's low debt relative to most other Aaa-rated countries and our expectation that New Zealand will continue with fiscal and monetary discipline and market-oriented policies.
What Could Change the Rating - Down
A continued upward government debt trajectory in the next few years could cause the rating to move down. A major problem with access to external finance that affected not only New Zealand and the Australian banks that operate in the country would also pressure the rating.
Recent Developments
The government released its Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update on December 17. The fiscal forecasts through 2018 were somewhat more positive than those presented at budget time in May, showing a balanced budget position in the next fiscal year (2014-15), and rising surpluses thereafter. If achieved, these fiscal outcomes would result in a decline in net government debt in the direction of the government's stated target of less than 20% of GDP by 2020. Gross government debt would also fall from its current level of a bit above 35% of GDP to under 30%. Although the current level of government debt is higher than New Zealand's recent historical experience, it remains below the median for sovereigns rated Aaa by Moody's.
Economic growth is accelerating, supportive of the government's effort to eliminate its budget deficit. During the third quarter of 2013, real expenditure GDP rose 1.1% qoq, with a large rise in residential investment being the strongest component. However, non-residential investment was also strong. On the production side, a large part of the rise in real GDP came from the dairy industry, with volume rising strongly as weather conditions improved following a drought.
The acceleration in growth was a factor in a slight widening of the current account deficit, but the net international investment position, which we consider to be New Zealand's biggest vulnerability, remained basically unchanged. The current account deficit increased because of strong growth in imports and, despite the near-record commodity prices, a small decline in exports. The latter reflected the aftermath of the drought, which had reduced the volume of agricultural production. Part of the financing of the current account deficit is still coming from reinsurance payments related to the Christchurch earthquakes. At around 4% of GDP, the current account deficit is lower than during the years prior to the global financial crisis.
Rating Factors
New Zealand, Government of
Rating Factors
Sub-Factor Weighting
Indicator
Factor Score
Factor 1: Economic Strength
H+
Growth Dynamics
50%
Average Real GDP Growth (2008-17F)
1.8
Volatility in Real GDP Growth (Standard Deviation, 2003-12)
1.8
WEF Global Competitiveness Index (2013)
5.1
Scale of the Economy
25%
Nominal GDP (US$ billion, 2012)
171.8
National Income
25%
GDP per Capita (PPP, US$, 2012)
29,481.1
Factor 2: Institutional Strength
VH+
Institutional Framework and Effectiveness
75%
World Bank Government Effectiveness Index (2012)
1.8
World Bank Rule of Law Index (2012)
1.9
World Bank Control of Corruption Index (2012)
2.3
Policy Credibility and Effectiveness
25%
Inflation Level (%, 2008-17F)
2.3
Inflation Volatility (Standard Deviation, 2003-12)
1.0
Economic Resiliency (F1xF2)
VH
Factor 3: Fiscal Strength
VH
Debt Burden
50%
General Government Debt/GDP (2012)
37.8
General Government Debt/Revenues (2012)
108.6
Debt Affordability
50%
General Government Interest Payments/Revenue (2012)
7.5
General Government Interest Payments/GDP (2012)
2.6
Government Financial Strength (F1xF2xF3)
VH
Factor 4: Susceptibility to Event Risk
Max. Function
L-
Political Risk
World Bank Voice & Accountability Index (2012)
1.6
Government Liquidity Risk
Gross Borrowing Requirements/GDP
9.0
Non-Resident Share of General Government Debt (%)
77.8
Market-Implied Ratings
--
Banking Sector Risk
Average Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA)
a3
Total Domestic Bank Assets/GDP
197.8
Banking System Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
147.8
External Vulnerability Risk
(Current Account Balance + FDI Inflows)/GDP
-3.4
External Vulnerability Indicator (EVI)
--
Net International Investment Position/GDP
-73.2
Government Bond Rating Range (F1xF2xF3xF4)
Aa1 - Aa3
Assigned Foreign Currency Government Bond Rating
Aaa
Note: While the information used to determine the grid mapping is mainly historical, our ratings incorporate expectations around future metrics and risk developments that may differ from the ones implied by the rating range. Thus, the rating process is deliberative and not mechanical, meaning that it depends on peer comparisons and should leave room for exceptional risk factors to be taken into account that may result in an assigned rating outside the indicative rating range.
For more information please see our Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology
Footnotes
1) Rating Range: Factors 1, Economic Strength, and Factor 2, Institutional Strength, combine with equal weight into a construct we designate as Economic Resiliency or ER. An aggregation function then combines ER and Factor 3, Fiscal Strength (FS), following a non-linear pattern where FS has higher weight for countries with moderate ER and lower weight for countries with high or low ER. As a final step, Factor 4, a country's Susceptibility to Event Risk, is a constraint which can only lower the preliminary Government Financial Strength rating range as given by combining the first three factors.(2) 15 Ranking Categories: VH+, VH, VH-, H+, H, H-, M+, M, M-, L+, L, L-, VL+, VL, VL-(3) Indicator Value: If not explicitly stated otherwise, the indicator value corresponds to the latest data available. The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
- #2,899
- Jan 29, 2014 12:15pm Jan 29, 2014 12:15pm
- Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts
Fix up, trade sharp ...
Everybody, please i have a problem with the NZD/USD and i think it is with my broker, after the news Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement released tonight the 29th of January 2014 at 9.00pm GMT, I experienced something weird with my broker and platform, i was in a sell position on NZD/USD and it went against me in -704 pips, which maxed out my account in few seconds, and on checking on other platforms (fxpro MT4, i saw that there was no such movement, my account is all wiped out now, please i need comments on this) i attached a picture of the movement
