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AUD/USD

  • #71,961
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:25pm Jan 28, 2014 2:25pm
What on earth does the Turkish lira have to do with the Aussie dollar?
  • #71,962
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:29pm Jan 28, 2014 2:29pm

Quoting Mpx
What on earth does the Turkish lira have to do with the Aussie dollar?
Hahaha... That's a mystery that should be solved.
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #71,963
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:32pm Jan 28, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Hickson
Who spiked this up in no time? There is no news event and not the busiest trading time ...
My questions EXACTLY. Turkish lira? Seriously? I think there is some other news that they are not publishing releasing to the public, aka us small traders.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #71,964
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:39pm Jan 28, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Ken A
Not sure you are being serious
you seen the TRY spreads atm
  • #71,965
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:43pm Jan 28, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} you seen the TRY spreads atm
Nothing unusual

Central Bank is one step a head of me. Hate it when they do that. Got short order at 3.294x for EUR/TRY
  • #71,966
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:46pm Jan 28, 2014 2:46pm

  1. As our colleague (Spik) says:

    "TRY is a high yield currency. Massive hike of TRY means that TRY is not safe anymore. So flight to other high yield currencies happened immediately: AUD, NZD, ZAR all gained."

The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #71,967
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:52pm Jan 28, 2014 2:52pm
jesus.... does anyone here actually read financial news? oh i forgot.... 'its all in teh charts'
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,968
  • Jan 28, 2014 2:54pm Jan 28, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Nothing unusual Central Bank is one step a head of me. Hate it when they do that. Got short order at 3.294x for EUR/TRY
sitting pretty then
  • #71,969
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:04pm Jan 28, 2014 3:04pm
Quoting spinozagr
As our colleague (Spik) says: "TRY is a high yield currency. Massive hike of TRY means that TRY is not safe anymore. So flight to other high yield currencies happened immediately: AUD, NZD, ZAR all gained."
Oh well I learned a new currency abbreviation today. TRY before today was just a verb for me in capital form. Didn't know turkish lira is that popular. Good thing I didn't short AUD.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #71,970
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:29pm Jan 28, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't know who this SPIK is, but: 1. Now, it will be too expensive to short TRY. 2. Why not taked the quick profit over few thousand points in less than 1 minute then move the money somewhere else.
the move in implied yields wasn't much. even though rates went up 425bps, the swaps were already trading at 10.5% so really in terms of forward discounting, there is only so far a 70bps move.

That does not make it expensive to short considering V. High CA deficit and the impact of a rate hike on a slowing economy.

Now its up to the market to decide if it wants to test the CBRT, they have no other tools. It could be bloody. (some are already interpreting this move as fear from Turkey and that could be very very very bad.)
  • #71,971
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:30pm Jan 28, 2014 3:30pm
JeremyWS


Hi jeremyWS,

can you post (reuters) H1 chart of USDTRY.

Thanx
  • #71,972
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:35pm Jan 28, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't know who this SPIK is, but: 1. Now, it will be too expensive to short TRY. 2. Why not taked the quick profit over few thousand points in less than 1 minute then move the money somewhere else.
Ken why you said that it is too expensive?
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #71,973
  • Jan 28, 2014 3:45pm Jan 28, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Try a very small position long either EUR/TRY or USD/TRY and check the roll over swaps and look at JPY with risk-on impacts due to this rate hike {quote} There's a gap during roll-over 17:00 EST
Yes there is a Gap - that's true!
  • #71,974
  • Jan 28, 2014 4:01pm Jan 28, 2014 4:01pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} the move in implied yields wasn't much. even though rates went up 425bps, the swaps were already trading at 10.5% so really in terms of forward discounting, there is only so far a 70bps move. That does not make it expensive to short considering V. High CA deficit and the impact of a rate hike on a slowing economy. Now its up to the market to decide if it wants to test the CBRT, they have no other tools. It could be bloody. (some are already interpreting this move as fear from Turkey and that could be very very very bad.)
Hmmm... any laymen explanation for us?

I'm trying to understand this whole Turkey situation and how it affects major FX pairs
  • #71,975
  • Jan 28, 2014 4:05pm Jan 28, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting sunnykeerthi
Hi All, I'm new to Forex trading, my broker told me to buy AUD/USD and wait and he didn't give me any stop lose. now the price is going down and i'm unable to decide if i need to sell it or keep it on hold. please advice. Below is my screenshot showing value date, estimated P/L. please help me with it. {image}
Hi, hav you closed your post? price did comeback to ur entry price to make you breakeven.
  • #71,976
  • Jan 28, 2014 5:10pm Jan 28, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Hmmm... any laymen explanation for us? I'm trying to understand this whole Turkey situation and how it affects major FX pairs

Last Wednesday the miss in China HSBC Manufacturing PMI sparked a selloff in emerging markets currencies and commodity based currencies. This also caused the Yen to rally in a classic 'risk off' theme where stocks dropped and interest rates in the developed markets fell.

The selloff in emerging market currencies was concentrated in countries that are highly vulnerable to the fed reducing its QE program, namely countries with high current account deficits that have benefited from QE 'hot money' flooding their economies and support their currencies at over valued levels.

These countries are namely Turkey (TRY), South Africa (ZAR) and India (INR).

The deterioration in EM sentiment was exacerbated by the Argentinean (ARS) government removing support for the peso, violent protests in Thailand, anti government rebellions in the Ukraine, a Platinum Miner strike in South Africa and ongoing investigations into corruption in the Turkish government. All these situations came to a head last week and EM was broadly sold off, even the healthy emerging markets like Mexico.

Today Turkey and India raised overnight interest rates. The effect of this is attracting more money into their currency so as to stop the massive panic selling. Seeing central banks in these countries take bold action (when in some cases markets dont exactly have confidence that the central bank is indeed independent from the (corrupt) government) increases confidence in emerging market assets so now we see a classic 'risk on' turn around with AUD, stocks and interest rates higher while JPY is getting sold again.

-CB
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,977
  • Jan 28, 2014 6:09pm Jan 28, 2014 6:09pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Last Wednesday the miss in China HSBC Manufacturing PMI sparked a selloff in emerging markets currencies and commodity based currencies. This also caused the Yen to rally in a classic 'risk off' theme where stocks dropped and interest rates in the developed markets fell. The selloff in emerging market currencies was concentrated in countries that are highly vulnerable to the fed reducing its QE program, namely countries with high current account deficits that have benefited from QE 'hot money' flooding their economies and support their currencies...

Thanks for the detail sir. That explains a lot.
  • #71,978
  • Jan 28, 2014 6:19pm Jan 28, 2014 6:19pm
Anybody will short it soon? I have set my short in place
  • #71,979
  • Jan 28, 2014 6:22pm Jan 28, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting garykh
Anybody will short it soon? I have set my short in place
don't short the aud before rba rate decision. this can go very high now.
  • #71,980
  • Jan 28, 2014 7:02pm Jan 28, 2014 7:02pm
Quoting garykh
Anybody will short it soon? I have set my short in place
The pair is still resisted by .8820 mentioned in my previous post. look at the rejection at this level.
Overall trend is still to the downside, but view might change if the daily candle closes above .8850.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
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