Where is current FX price relative to historical range? | Forex Factory

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Where is current FX price relative to historical range?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 25, 2014 6:08pm Jan 25, 2014 6:08pm
I was playing around with monthly charts and wanted to see where price sat within its all-time historical range; i did this for 28 FX pairs and below is the result...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: range.PNG Size: 80 KB


The blue bars show the number of pips between the highest high and lowest low using the monthly chart for each FX pair and is sorted from highest range to lowest. We can see that GBPCHF has been the most volatile pair and NZDCAD the least volatile. The red bars show where current bid price sits from the charts lowest low.

If we now look at the top three pairs that are testing their extremes, we can see that CADCHF, AUDCHF AND AUDNZD are approaching their all-time lows and CHFJPY, GBPAUD and GBPCAD are approaching their all-time highs.

If we know split these above pairs into their base/quote currencies and tabulate the result, we get this...

Attached Image


So the underlying theme is AUD weakness and CHF strength, so watch AUDCHF for sells as it approaches it's all time low @ 0.69320, which is 800 pips away (8,000 pipettes).

N.B I've added the indy i wrote for anyone who wishes to do their own research. You'll have to add or edit which pairs your broker uses and uncomment the array, as the print statement has limited length to display all info in one pass. I then copied the Print() result into notepad and formatted the data for excel to produce the above graph using a 2D column graph.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Range.mq4   2 KB | 503 downloads
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #2
  • Jan 25, 2014 6:32pm Jan 25, 2014 6:32pm
It seems price is currently testing support from 2001 / 2002 (white box), which sits inside the previous consolidation at the last fractal low (orange box). There's no denying these big red monthly candles on AUDCHF as the swiss franc is seen as a safe haven currency and AUD is a commodity currency that's reflects the offers on gold which is retracing deep back into its historical parabolic move to the moon.

AUDCHF - Monthly
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Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #3
  • Jan 25, 2014 6:49pm Jan 25, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting FiatFap
. If we now look at ..., GBPAUD .... are approaching their all-time highs.
I believe a bit more research may be needed.
Just a quick look at a simple GBP/AUD weekly chart reveals that it's nowhere near
its "all time high". ?????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: high.png Size: 23 KB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #4
  • Jan 25, 2014 7:00pm Jan 25, 2014 7:00pm
My GBPAUD only shows 49 candles on monthly; i'll try downloading historical data from metaquotes, thanks for pointing out the discrepancy.

GBPAUD - Monthly
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Edit: Just downloaded monthly from history centre and here's updated chart. I need to do this for each pair to make sure there's enough history to ascertain hilo's.

GBPAUD - Monthly from metaquotes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaudmonthly2.png Size: 24 KB
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #5
  • Jan 25, 2014 7:12pm Jan 25, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting FiatFap
Monthly {image}
If you zoom out further on the weekly, you can also see that
the "08 top" still wasn't the highest level.

Best of luck in your endeavor.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: high.png Size: 23 KB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #6
  • Jan 26, 2014 12:33am Jan 26, 2014 12:33am
so what all does this indicates? can we use this data for scalping?
  • #7
  • Jan 26, 2014 8:16am Jan 26, 2014 8:16am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} If you zoom out further on the weekly, you can also see that the "08 top" still wasn't the highest level. Best of luck in your endeavor. {image}
Thanks Slim, even after manually downloading data from the history centre for GBPAUD weekly, i still can't go back that far; that's quite impressive from forex.com.

Trying to spot historical hilo's is flawed as it depends on your terminals candle info...d'oh, so i'll try the indy on monthly TF, to see if there's an underlying pattern.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #8
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:02am Jan 27, 2014 7:02am
Modified the code to analyse just the current monthly candle. It now gets the hilo range for each monthly candle across 27 FX pairs and then determines how far from the low each bid price sits within the candle...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.PNG Size: 71 KB


Can see that GBPCAD has had the greatest volatility / range this month and there's strength across GBP pairs and CAD weakness also shown on USDCAD & NZDCAD which have big red bars, ie price is sitting high up on the monthly candle.

It's interesting to note that EURGBP is way on the right, so that's one to watch for february as GBPxxx pairs may consolidate and EURGBP will correct itself with a trend to catch up; the EURGBP bars show price looks like it's sitting just under 50% so the candle will be a spinning top and it's volatility has been very low.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #9
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:09am Jan 27, 2014 7:09am
So this are all monthly candles in a way.
  • #10
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:23am Jan 27, 2014 7:23am
What one could do is to calculate the strenght of the currencies in question.

You can pick 21 pairs out of 7 currencies as seen in the picture. Its good that all are connected with eachother. You can get NZD also as Hannover did. I dont use NZD.

After picking them all, one could calculate the range for all the pairs and calculate the volatility index for all those currencies. I would do it on a daily or h4. Depends on what one wants.

After seeing the volatility index for all the currencies one could see which currencies are strong movers.

In my case CAD and GBP also.

I only take indexes on the close of the candle.
PS: My indexes are inverse. The strongest has the negative value. GBP. And vice versa.
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  • #11
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:39am Jan 27, 2014 7:39am
Quoting LoverHeart
so what all does this indicates? can we use this data for scalping?
Momentum for base/quote currency pairs since month open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: momentum.PNG Size: 31 KB


CADJPY - Weekly
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You could scalp CADJPY buys. From above currency comparison, JPY is the highest and CAD the lowest but if you look at the weekly chart, it's testing the bottom of consolidation and a fractal trend-line.

Also interesting that despite large GBP moves, it's still hovering around its month open (blue line); EUR (white line) is also back at its month open.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #12
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:41am Jan 27, 2014 7:41am
Quoting 21vs7
So this are all monthly candles in a way.

Yes, that's exactly what they are beautiful brevity.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #13
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:45am Jan 27, 2014 7:45am
  • #14
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:51am Jan 27, 2014 7:51am
Quoting FiatFap
{quote} Yes, that's exactly what they are beautiful brevity.
Cool.

1. This graph represents 1 month. So its seperated by the days? Calculated by days?
2. Do you use all variations of pairs in the currency indexes?
3. What do you mean by momentum? You actually are calculating momentum out of all pairs? Or as said earlier the range?
4. What do you do when new month begins?
  • #15
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:58am Jan 27, 2014 7:58am
Quoting 21vs7
What one could do is to calculate the strength of the currencies in question.
It's funny that we posted currency momentums at the same time

CAD (brown line) & JPY (yellow line) split currencies - momentum since month open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.PNG Size: 17 KB


If we look at month open candle closes for split pairs CAD & JPY, we can see there's a short term retrace of both symbols back into white boxes, so could do a cheeky scalp.

Daily risk sentiment
Attached Image


You should use NZD currency in your momentum tool, it's a powerful currency to determine risk. Above shows daily risk = on, i.e. there's risk appetite for AUD & NZD currencies. This in itself means nothing on monday, but tuesday is more telling if sentiment is still risk on going into rollover wednesday.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #16
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:06am Jan 27, 2014 8:06am
Quoting FiatFap
{quote} It's funny that we posted currency momentums at the same time CAD (brown line) & JPY (yellow line) split currencies - momentum since month open {image} If we look at month open candle closes for split pairs CAD & JPY, we can see there's a short term retrace of both symbols back into white boxes, so could do a cheeky scalp. Daily risk sentiment {image} You should use NZD currency in your momentum tool, it's a powerful currency to determine risk. Above shows daily risk = on, i.e. there's risk appetite for AUD & NZD currencies. This in itself...
hehehe

CADJPY
1M
flat lines are 4H strenght IF GREEN (JPY) is higher than RED (CAD) its buy. And evidantely its moving up. Need to watch out latest JPY strenght.

everytime the fooker changes sides on lower lines (bumpy scalps) you need to buy this pair...when RED is up and GREEN is lower, you can consider buy.
Values are important. But one gets this thru time.

Intraday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpym1.pgn.png Size: 51 KB
  • #17
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:09am Jan 27, 2014 8:09am
Quoting FiatFap
{quote} CAD (brown line) & JPY (yellow line) split currencies - momentum since month open ..
since month open?

HARD to say and scalp on monthly basis.
Have done loots of testing and im running 120 EAs around the clocks which are based on lower TFs. Hard to stay in the game on the monthly. If you can beleive it or not, too much noise on monthly and weekly.
  • #18
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:12am Jan 27, 2014 8:12am
1. This graph represents 1 month. So its seperated by the days? Calculated by days?
I used the Period_MN1 in indy, so it just grabs the hilo of each FX pairs current monthly candle. I then calculated the difference between bid price and the candles low and exported data to excel.
2. Do you use all variations of pairs in the currency indexes?
I only used the most common FX pairs, the exotic pairs aren't volatile enough to warrant validity.
3. What do you mean by momentum? You actually are calculating momentum out of all pairs? Or as said earlier the range?
Momentum is calculated by using current bid price compared to day, week, month open for example. It's an interesting tool you're using but i question the way they turn momentum into a percentage. Why would your CAD line be above 50%? 50% of what?
4. What do you do when new month begins?
I was doing some research over the weekend and thought i'd share the visual result. It probably means nothing, but it's nice to see how the monthly candles compare when represented in graph form and where bid price sits within the candle without having to piss around with MT4 charts. I was only interested to see a comparison as we approach month end. It's a tool i wouldn't use for signal(s) but it might have potential. I could mark the fib levels on each blue bar and then see what happens when the red bars approach.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #19
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:14am Jan 27, 2014 8:14am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} since month open? HARD to say and scalp on monthly basis. Have done loots of testing and im running 120 EAs around the clocks which are based on lower TFs. Hard to stay in the game on the monthly. If you can beleive it or not, too much noise on monthly and weekly.
Do you use a VPS for your EA's? What about NLP?

You don't trade monthly, just stand on the highest mountain and look down at the battle-field to see who's winning the war.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #20
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:19am Jan 27, 2014 8:19am
Quoting FiatFap
Momentum is calculated by using current bid price compared to day, week, month open for example. It's an interesting tool you're using but i question the way they turn momentum into a percentage. Why would your CAD line be above 50%? 50% of what? 4. What do you do when new month begins? ...
My index is not limited. It could be anything. Its hard to look at 100 and market is still going up. In that way you can see some kind of extremezz you cant see in 100 ratio.

This is daily index and its pretty much long speed. Noise. So its not usefull for real trading as said. But gives an insight of the underlying trend.

One needs to use different speeds to see the momentum. Speeds on different TFs and differents speeds of it. Loots of room here to explore.
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