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Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #241
  • Jan 24, 2014 12:45pm Jan 24, 2014 12:45pm
Try not to let your head be turned by all the incoming praises....

I have my first turn wrestling with programming the MT4 platform last night. I got it so messed up That I had get rid of the whole and down load a new one.
When I got all fifteen screens back up and running ( a Template helps but only a little) and loaded up some pending trades, I neglected to check the Lot size(!)

Around 4 in the morning I awoke to find myself in danger of a margin call! Naturally I woke up and started closing stuff I was hoping would come back into profit.
I looked at the bottom, saw some things were making good money , and decided that collecting them might help the margin call thing anyway. When I went to close them out, I found I was trading full Lots! closed out the full lots, checked my pending trades, they were all in full lots as well!

I have never traded in full lots before, and knew immediately this had to be stopped before I got killed, and closed out all of my pending trades as fast as I could.
Net result: I lost some 11% of my account. I hadn't realize I had grown it enough to support a full lot bid!

so I looked around then and this morning, and realized at the rate I had been making money, I would make this back in 6, 7 weeks.
I increased my take profit window, I had found out that I made just as much money , and did not have to work so frenetically to do it.

Good thing I woke up. A margin call is a terrible thing. Good and safe now, though.

I follow your posts, and billytt's with interest.
  • #242
  • Jan 24, 2014 1:04pm Jan 24, 2014 1:04pm
Rap, I was speaking to a guy about your parent child philosophy and he was studying that sort of thing, he might be in touch (FF subscriber).
I have spent yesterday and today watching charts (sad) specifically looking at your families (parent child) 2 go up one goes down, one goes up two go down zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz then bingo two go up one goes up, CORRECTION TIME. You are on to something. Like I said weeks ago some of this movement is retained in sub conscious mind but if you can get it plotted that'll be ever so good.

Proxy, I know this post isn't related to your method but it adds knowledge
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #243
  • Jan 24, 2014 3:08pm Jan 24, 2014 3:08pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Okay, so we have a trigger and a filter. What if the trade goes against you anyway? Do you wait it out, dig out, or close it?
Thats a dilemma, and a pretty big one

The solutions could be:

A) Wait it out : not good for EUR/USD, the best pair which has many ranging periods , so has a very low probability of failing the trade, however if we do, the wait-out would cost us dearly, by paying the swaps.

Good for AUD/USD, where we can certainly get extra swap bonus on long positions, but its a very trending pair with less ranging periods, so we will have a high probability of failing here.

Prerry much a dilemma

B) Dig it out: i suppose you mean to avoid it somehow, well, the question is how? Increased filter, but then we will have less trades.

Or put a medium sized SL, in which case the 1 losing trade will have a large drawdown.Put a small SL, and then the system will no longer be gambling, but a conventional system.

C) Close it: Thats nonsense, if we wait we either wait or we dont, by closing it we just ensure ourselves of the certainty of the loss, if we dont then atleast we have a remote chance that the price will come back.

Now please choose/ vote on the best method, or give me suggestions guys.Any help is highly appreciated, I myself am in a big dilemma right now.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #244
  • Jan 24, 2014 3:35pm Jan 24, 2014 3:35pm
How about D. Hedging it? A good cross-currency hedge has made my trade come true often.
  • #245
  • Jan 24, 2014 3:36pm Jan 24, 2014 3:36pm
C.. Hi Proxy, I personally would pick C and close the trade down, I answer as if I were in a trade myself and not gambling.
other options for you would be to hedge hoping for a retrace or even trade the opposite direction again waiting for retrace, I would of done neither.
The way I worked, if I were to be in a bad trade and hopefully waiting for a retrace that is wasted money, money that could be used on another trade for instance. Similar to property development , one buys a house with the view to selling it after refurbishing and suddenly the housing market becomes stagnant so what do you do...You Rent It Out so you are still making money.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #246
  • Edited 3:54pm Jan 24, 2014 3:37pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
How about D. Hedging it? A good cross-currency hedge has made my trade come true often.

snap, lol
edit,, that does make sense Rap. I personally only traded 3 or 4 pairs so I didn't have any stats to cross trade
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #247
  • Jan 24, 2014 4:19pm Jan 24, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting billytt
Hi Proxy, your gambling method.. what time chart are you looking for, meaning, Are you happy getting one trade per day or maybe a trade every few hours .

Proxy, if I know your preferred trading times I can look on my charts for entries and offer advice
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #248
  • Jan 24, 2014 5:00pm Jan 24, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting Proximus
B) Dig it out: i suppose you mean to avoid it somehow, well, the question is how? Increased filter, but then we will have less trades.
If you hyper qualify your trigger by filtering, you can increase the size of the range. In seeking out extreme conditions, market pivotal points, you will find yourself in a lot less positions, but with the possibility of an increased range of trade.

12 trades at 3 pips = 36
1 trade at 36 pips = 36.

If you are looking at increasing the odds, you have to throttle back on the randomness of the trigger to actually play this statistically safe.

IF WHEN and THEN.


OR
Even using something as mundane as an ADX for filtering the range on the M1 will give you a better probability of success on multiple trades than using one.
There is also the addition of using overbought/oversold ranges from different periods.
I have had some decent success with using the M5 chart to filter the M1. Working with an M5 bollinger band and only taking trades against it, can increase your chances of success, especially if you want to continue to work with a static range. If you move to a dynamic range, there is a lot that can be said for this too.

Option E, could just run with the simple static range on a qualified filtered trigger and win or lose, close and reverse.

If filtered properly, you should have a lot larger ranges for winners, but may have a lot of tiny losers.

Because the idea is gambling, this would seem the most logical. End of the week, as long as you are ahead by a single pip, you have still beat the market for the week and live to fight the next.

Just a couple thoughts for ya going into the weekend.

Keep on chugging.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #249
  • Jan 24, 2014 5:31pm Jan 24, 2014 5:31pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Thats a dilemma, and a pretty big one The solutions could be: A) Wait it out : not good for EUR/USD, the best pair which has many ranging periods , so has a very low probability of failing the trade, however if we do, the wait-out would cost us dearly, by paying the swaps. Good for AUD/USD, where we can certainly get extra swap bonus on long positions, but its a very trending pair with less ranging periods, so we will have a high probability of failing here. Prerry much a dilemma B) Dig it out: i suppose you mean to avoid it somehow,...
A few comments that are meant to help. You claim to be a fundamental trader, but for the last 48 hours, have ignored the fundamentals of the E/$. You have allowed a trade to move against you when the fundamentals underlying the euro were clearly long. Perhaps you need a rule that allows for a dump of any trade that is found to be counter to your analysis of fundamentals. Will your current situation resolve itself? Probably, but if you are not trading while it works itself out, your dreams of making a live as a trader is pretty much over.

If you are still working off a 1M chart, perhaps you should bring up a 1H chart to gain some perspective of the market. Professional traders work off a 4H chart, entering and exiting on the 1H. I can't imagine how you develop perspective of the market, when to enter, etc.

You need to understand that this experiment will end in failure, but you should learn a few things in the process, so it's worth the effort. I admire your effort, and doing it in view of the public takes guts, which earns you some help. Keep moving ahead and make sure you continue to document your thoughts here.
  • #250
  • Jan 24, 2014 7:25pm Jan 24, 2014 7:25pm
Well...

I'm ready to put my money where my mouth is...easy to say, because I will be using a demo account.

Not for the sake of comparing dick sizes, but in the spirit of the thread.

I have, what I consider a high probability trigger, that I am willing to mix with my own concept as previously mentioned and will pick a single trade pair and a start account of $100 as the gambler.

The trigger, I will not divulge, but the rest, I will.

Rules of the trader will go like this:
It will be a cost averaging trigger on grid EA.
It will be a Dynamic Range trader, meaning it will continue to buy under criteria until a sell trigger is generated and vice versa.
It will cost average trades incrementally.
It will NOT use a STOP loss, but will still close trades with a negative value.
I willingly allow Prox to link my EA to his thread for comparison.

My choice of Crosses will be EURUSD and start lot size will be a dime. Cost averaged trades will be incremental to the primary lot. So, lot one=.1, lot two=.2, lot 3=.3 and on and on until close or bust!

I have absolutely no conceptual idea if this will survive the week, but love the idea of the challenge.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #251
  • Jan 24, 2014 11:30pm Jan 24, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Thats a dilemma, and a pretty big one The solutions could be: A) Wait it out : not good for EUR/USD, the best pair which has many ranging periods , so has a very low probability of failing the trade, however if we do, the wait-out would cost us dearly, by paying the swaps. Good for AUD/USD, where we can certainly get extra swap bonus on long positions, but its a very trending pair with less ranging periods, so we will have a high probability of failing here. Prerry much a dilemma B) Dig it out: i suppose you mean to avoid it somehow,...
Okay Prox, so how about breaking up your position size into smaller amounts and scaling in with the trend? Or, how about dynamic hedging?

Honestly, if you really just want to gamble, you may as well just average down or do a direct martingale. That is as gambling as it gets!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #252
  • Jan 25, 2014 12:01am Jan 25, 2014 12:01am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} A few comments that are meant to help. You claim to be a fundamental trader, but for the last 48 hours, have ignored the fundamentals of the E/$. You have allowed a trade to move against you when the fundamentals underlying the euro were clearly long. Perhaps you need a rule that allows for a dump of any trade that is found to be counter to your analysis of fundamentals. Will your current situation resolve itself? Probably, but if you are not trading while it works itself out, your dreams of making a live as a trader is pretty much over....
I dont use fundamentals in this strategy.Maybe its a mistake, but just to keep it simple.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #253
  • Jan 25, 2014 12:41am Jan 25, 2014 12:41am
Another question Proxy.

How do you determine when a trend ends?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #254
  • Jan 25, 2014 12:56am Jan 25, 2014 12:56am
Quoting Magix
Well... I'm ready to put my money where my mouth is...easy to say, because I will be using a demo account. Not for the sake of comparing dick sizes, but in the spirit of the thread. I have, what I consider a high probability trigger, that I am willing to mix with my own concept as previously mentioned and will pick a single trade pair and a start account of $100 as the gambler. The trigger, I will not divulge, but the rest, I will. Rules of the trader will go like this: It will be a cost averaging trigger on grid EA. It will be a Dynamic Range...
With all due respect Magix, if you cannot show the trigger, do not use the EA. I think Proxy is trying to get his shit together, so we need be as transparent as we can.

You are clearly a master at automation, can you whip up something that can help him, trigger included?

Edit: I am not saying GIVE him anything, but maybe something that has a flaw, and we can help him discover it. Grails are very hard won, and he needs to find his own!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #255
  • Jan 25, 2014 3:46am Jan 25, 2014 3:46am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} With all due respect Magix, if you cannot show the trigger, do not use the EA. I think Proxy is trying to get his shit together, so we need be as transparent as we can. You are clearly a master at automation, can you whip up something that can help him, trigger included? Edit: I am not saying GIVE him anything, but maybe something that has a flaw, and we can help him discover it. Grails are very hard won, and he needs to find his own!

Master of automation...I am not...

See, here's the thing...

I don't know code, but I do know market. I have an idea that any single trigger and especially as applied to an M1 chart is destined to fail. Be it working with a stop loss or tight range for TP, there is the eventuality that they will all end up similar to how Proxies EA did this week. It's really more so a take on working a cost average concept and dynamic range that I think is the key to prosperity through a gamble and could quite conceivably be applied to any of the market systems or strategies that could be found here at FF.

I don't know for sure that my EA will make it past Tuesday, let alone survive the week...but I'm willing to give it a shot.

I am still development stages and have pieces of code that when afforded enough breathing room and equity have churned $10k almost 3 full spins last year. Real money, live accounts. Problem is, they require a large start account, a small lot size and can still hit high in the DD before coming back to square.

Bottom line, they still make the cash, but what if I just want to throw a hunny into market and see what I could get out?

Having an account that doesn't need a reload for the week following, running a grid, cost averaging EA with a $100 start would be decent...any profit over $100 retained by the end of the trial run, would be a success.

We're not there yet.

Until it is tested and proven, all it is, is an idea.

Giving any information on it, simply wouldn't be of any value to prox nor anybody else...

Look through the thread and see how many others will throw down an idea as to how to build the better mousetrap, but without any sort of conceptual idea or proof of success. Having gone down a lot of these same roads, all I am doing is, instead of just throwing in a blind sweeping statement or suggestion, is launching an idea of my own.

Really, why should prox take my word over anything anybody else says?

And why shouldn't he take all suggestions, add his own interpretation and see if they will stack up against others?

This way, he keeps his focus, but still gains off of any statistical information that I can provide without having to commit a second thought.

I have said before, that working with these is a long journey and as far as goes, me and prox alike are still only a step or two in.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #256
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:24am Jan 25, 2014 4:24am
Proxy, I did ask which time frame you preferred. You also mentioned BB and trigger, here is an idea for you to look at.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart A 1 hour.PNG Size: 101 KB

chart 22nd Jan,, E/U hourly, high lighted candle 13-00 uk time.
candle closed past your BB moving average(black line) so next candle would of been trigger for long, would of made approx. 14 pips before dropping approx 40 pips and then going up again.
Next post will be another chart same trade different time frame
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #257
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:28am Jan 25, 2014 4:28am
Quoting billytt
Proxy, I did ask which time frame you preferred. You also mentioned BB and trigger, here is an idea for you to look at.
Internet Explorer, billy?



Now, not even the newbies are going to take you seriously.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #258
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:34am Jan 25, 2014 4:34am
2nd chart E/U 22nd Jan 15 min chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart B.PNG Size: 119 KB

using 15 min chart we managed to trade it earlier, we got in at 11-30 uk time for 30 pips it dropped approx. 20 before moving up.
The reason I put this random trade to you is,,,the first trade method A gained 14 pips before spread etc, it could of easily been less than 10 pips. But the second example gives you time to make a few more pips and get out if needed or scalp

ALSO, I have noticed look at the BB ma when it crosses the 20 ema (blue line ) on 15 min chart, this looks good. This is new to me but the actual Charts A and B I did trade very similar only exception being I was more selective on entry
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #259
  • Jan 25, 2014 4:58am Jan 25, 2014 4:58am
Attached Image

A few years ago we had a Russian defector who flew in a mig jet,, At first this jet was ridiculed due to the way it was built. it used old valves not state of the art like the western world used. Everybody thought gosh USSR really are poor and no money for state of the art fighting machines.
Then they realised sh*t these jets can fly through nuked areas massive bombed places, they just keep flying, They are good.
how about rifles ak47 for instance very simple.
Standard self defence tool is a pen (writing) you cannot be arrested for carrying a pen but they can be used like a stabbing knife, Do you get my drift. Simple is sometimes easier and simple tools in the right hands are awesome. A master is a master is a master
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #260
  • Jan 25, 2014 5:07am Jan 25, 2014 5:07am
Quoting billytt
A master is a master is a master
Says the guy who wants to study a simple and exponential moving average cross as a trading tool...

Quoting billytt
ALSO, I have noticed look at the BB ma when it crosses the 20 ema (blue line ) on 15 min chart, this looks good. This is new to me but the actual Charts A and B I did trade very similar only exception being I was more selective on entry
RANDOM!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macross.png Size: 42 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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