Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

AUD/JPY and USD/JPY are being supported and already up 45 pips. GBP/JPY is near the zone. I just don't wanna go long right here and have them shake me out only to have it rise later.

Futures are trying to come up now DOW negative 90. 1 hour and 10 min. still left before the open. Big CAD CPI data in 8 minutes.

CAD CPI mostly as expected. DOW futures look better at minus 69. The market looks like it wants to get a grip now and calm down a bit. I'm in too. Come on, up, up, up.

WOOT WOOT! So now where should we TP this thing? Anyone?

No one was sure exactly where the support/resistance was around here. I thought it was roughly 169, but maybe 169.3/6 or so.

It may well be 169.5 and we traded below it, hence the difficulty in getting back up.

Translation -- unlikely long.

If this breaks 167.95 is next

This beast took 3 days of profit in one session, what I can't figure out is is this a correction or reversal, I'd still say correction, but where it ends god knows

Hey....eur/aud....you go boyee ~GBP/JPY~closed all the sells out, small long and orders way down there for more. US YEN shows a target at 98.67 or just above the round figure there. Trading the GBP/JPY,,, the eur/aud gives a sense of the carry trade boys antics. Always buy the eur/aud on a wednesday....
About the GBP/JPY...just trade the 15M chart with a 34, 3, 3 slo sto against a 333 ma. That 333 gives the same signal as the 50ma and 200ma crossover.! One can then read it like a book. Don't forget to throw in the old " three pushes to take".
How do we play the probability of JPY pairs going down more....?....this morning at 7:30 New York time, it would have already hit the fix and gone 100 pips up, if it was going to. Since the PA is being so casual......the banks have more downside to fill.

that's forex...however buying jpy against gbp is not wise. Being unwise is ok on Fridays only.

Yes, the 168 area might hold some technical support, then 167.6, then 167.1 , about 164, then 156.

167.1 is favoured, but below there starts to suggest reversal. Under about 100.5, UJ technically has its uptrend negated and under 1.64 Cable has its uptrend negated.

JPY monetary policy meeting is this Sunday better be cautious

At 77 they were displeased and were probably happy at about 85. I don't think anyone there would be too worried right now.

And then over at the BOE, they want their Pound to go down.

GJ could fall 3000 pips and no one would care less.

Abe will be unhappy...gbp fall was on the cards today...apparently some investor is buying jpy upon China crisis news...that's main driver...but on Sunday you must expect a bunch of rubbish from BOJ...I won't give much importance to that though

We are hitting the 50 SMA on the daily plus into a support and resistance zone on the daily. Could produce a stalling point for the recent drop, might try to bounce

The other day I commented that 167.1 was the 38% retracement of the move up - which obviously is pretty significant.

The move from 174.8 to 168.3 was achieved in three moves, each of roughly equal length and could be considered to wave A of the downtrend. It had a total length of 650 pips. The following move up to 173.6 could be considered to be wave B.

A very common length for wave C (presumably the one we're in now) is equal to wave A, which takes it to 167.1.

Conversely, the other common length for wave C is length of A multiplied by 1.618.

650 x 1.618 = 1052 pips. 173.6 subtracting 1052 pips equals (in round numbers) 163.1.

Yessirr, thanks for that count. I'm glad to see apost about pip runs, I have 930 pips for a barrier in all runs....

Good stuff guys. We've already seen the capital outflows from the emerging markets as their exchange rates with the USD are so abnormal now. Dollars are being pulled out of these risky high yields into safer instruments. The question now is will this be contained and start to stabilize or will it spread to the US and Europe also and then onward?

Now comes the fun part.

There are other options.

Bounce at 167.1 or so up to resistance at about 175, then drop back to 163 for another bounce. But I'm not sure whether even a bounce from 163 would clear 175x. If it did clear it, so be it. If not we would have a topping pattern. If it cleared it on the first (or the second), a fallback out of 180~185 would probably just retest 175.

Under 163, then its back to 156 first.

The big issue here is that we are right up against a major channel resistance - on a monthly chart run a parallel channel from the 1998 high of 241 down to 118.8 in 2009, then from the 2007 high of 250 and you'll see that we banged into that channel at 175. GJ will probably hunt for support and keep trying until it either succeeds - or gives up.

175 seems like a stretch MPT even though the BOJ is still the midst of an extremely aggressive easing program. We'll get some hints on the sentiment tomorrow with BOJ meeting. 1/3 of the analysts say new measures in April but with these fears going on if we don't hear some really strong language from the BOJ down it goes. Jaw boning is going to be ignored at this point. The U.S. data too, it simply must not keep coming in crappy.

5 years on these programs and trillions of USD pumped into the banks and we have data like this still? The costs are far outweighing the benefits now so there is going to be another 10 million USD cut from the MBS purchases soon. So more bad numbers coming will completely shatter confidence. My reasoning is if such unfathomable amounts of money hav been thrown at this for Sooooooooooo long, if this has not worked then this market is a sell. It's tentatively peaked and that's it, we will just have to struggle through once the legs are pulled out from under it.

I guess what I'm saying is with the right recipe of factors in play this emerging market thing can become uncontainable and this market can roll over into a full on bear market.