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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,321
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:50am Jan 23, 2014 9:50am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} . Looks like a 50% retrace to me (H4) - which is also a Kijun-sen (ichimoku) bounce - sorry no chart as away from my PC. EDIT: Also possibly turning 172.000 resistance to support.
you can call it a 50% H4 retrace, or a 76.4% H1 off yesterday's low. Either, she's stopped in her tracks for now. I'm long from 7197 but I'm tentative on it. I'm looking at it to falter at around 7247, but to hopefully move up to 7280 where I have my TP. I think we'll then move down again as H4 has medium term bearishness for me. I think we may have to go down to around 7020 which is the H4 61.8% fib, just above the 200ema.
  • #10,322
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:55am Jan 23, 2014 9:55am
while I was sleeping... +91
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  • #10,323
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:01am Jan 23, 2014 10:01am
Quoting deanoracer
while I was sleeping... +91 {image}
My I bet you're a chirpy lad this morning!
  • #10,324
  • Edited 10:08am Jan 23, 2014 10:01am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting cat
{quote} you can call it a 50% H4 retrace, or a 76.4% H1 off yesterday's low. Either, she's stopped in her tracks for now. I'm long from 7197 but I'm tentative on it. I'm looking at it to falter at around 7247, but to hopefully move up to 7280 where I have my TP. I think we'll then move down again as H4 has medium term bearishness for me. I think we may have to go down to around 7020 which is the H4 61.8% fib, just above the 200ema.
Fair enough. The Kijun has acted as dynamic support on the 4h since 16 Jan, so for me a break of that will signify a bigger push down. Price generally seeks equilllibrium at the Kijun so I'm not anticpating anything lower - if it does break the Kijun then I think it will be a big push down. But we all trade what we see. Good luck.

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  • #10,325
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:04am Jan 23, 2014 10:04am
Quoting cat
{quote} My I bet you're a chirpy lad this morning!
Indeed, better than coffee for sure!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #10,326
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:53pm Jan 23, 2014 12:53pm
sell
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #10,327
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:39pm Jan 23, 2014 2:39pm
Made 50 pips but it was a complete risk off rout today. Nothing like I should have made. It was my big headed comments. God has a way of humbling the proud. Now I'm at a loss on what is gonna happen next. I need to watch and learn. I could have tripled my account today. Oh well 50 pips is better than a loss I guess. So pissed though.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,328
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:08pm Jan 23, 2014 5:08pm
It's now probably in a triangle - or similar (ultimately) bullish configuration. Downside targets can be better guestimated once we know how high this present up-move gets.

At the moment , figures range from 170 down to 168/167 - depending on triangles or a bullish wedge. Curiously, in a wedge, bottom at 167 is also the 38 fib retracement of the move 154.7 to 174.7

Obviously, a move back over 173 negates that whole argument.
  • #10,329
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:32pm Jan 23, 2014 5:32pm
Hello MPT! The sell off today had a certain texture to it. It had a feel I have not seen in a while. I see how far the market had extended in 2013 and I'm seeing things now that are indicative of a correction before this gets any higher, GBP/JPY included. Some BOJ comments stating they are wanting price stability and not caring about FX rates. Carney in Davos today also said he saw no need for more forward guidance at this time. Sounds like no rate increase here to me. The HSBC China PMI and all the other signs. Oh yes and that Jobless claims number today.

GBP/JPY market sell at 171.91 with a take profit target of 169. These banks can jack me around to try and make me believe all kinds of things with the price action to convince me everything is great and moving forward but they cannot hit my stop loss because I don't have one. See you guys again when I have to re-deposit funds or when the take profit is hit.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,330
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:43pm Jan 23, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting Temujin
Hello MPT! The sell off today had a certain texture to it. It had a feel I have not seen in a while. I see how far the market had extended in 2013 and I'm seeing things now that are indicative of a correction before this gets any higher, GBP/JPY included. Some BOJ comments stating they are wanting price stability and not caring about FX rates. Carney in Davos today also said he saw no need for more forward guidance at this time. Sounds like no rate increase here to me. The HSBC China PMI and all the other signs. Oh yes and that Jobless claims number...
I would go easy until you see the previous low taken out.
  • #10,331
  • Jan 23, 2014 5:57pm Jan 23, 2014 5:57pm
I've been at this for a year now and I find myself trading segments of all 3 sessions and sleeping in between. I would like to make the transition to trading a daily time frame so I can accumulate more pips and have a life again. It's gonna be a painful transition but It's going to worth it.

I have to somehow learn some kind of entry signals on the H4 that I can run for a week before I close the trade and I think this is the opportunity. This pair is insane. Rather the billion dollar bank algorithms are clever. They can do magic and make me see the illusion of bulls stampeding to the highs when they are planning to dump it on me the whole time and leave me holding the high risk bag. I think if I try to clearly define my entries until the TP and ignore the algos I'll finally reach my goal of becoming a better trader. Good luck guys.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,332
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:15pm Jan 23, 2014 9:15pm
For what it's worth,if USDJPY cannot get over the 103.5/7 area and furthermore drops under 102.8, it suggests/confirms that it's been in a reversal. It is presently retesting what appears to be the underside of its reversal pattern at 103.5.

That would obviously have some small impact on GJ!!!
  • #10,333
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:34pm Jan 23, 2014 9:34pm
You're right MPT. I just read some article title about how GJ is really a UJ story. Now Taro Aso is saying Japan is actually out of a deflationary environment. There does not seem to be the need for more stimulus to off set the new tax or take these policies further if it's working.

How do you guys play this pair? You see I'm noticing lower highs now. You guys look at support and then go if X then Y? Man, it would be so cool to know wave analysis and know what wave this is. Another trader on this thread even before the fall was saying these up moves this week were part of a bigger corrective wave down. It's like he told the future even as I was hyping the pair on the thread as unbreakable steel.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,334
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:53pm Jan 23, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting Temujin
You're right MPT. I just read some article title about how GJ is really a UJ story. Now Taro Aso is saying Japan is actually out of a deflationary environment. There does not seem to be the need for more stimulus to off set the new tax or take these policies further if it's working. How do you guys play this pair? You see I'm noticing lower highs now. You guys look at support and then go if X then Y? Man, it would be so cool to know wave analysis and know what wave this is. Another trader on this thread even before the fall was saying these up moves...
This is a wave 4. A rapid down move was anticipated as the third stage of a wave 4 correction - its just that the interim up move to 173.6 started to take the form of a slow uptrend that suggested the correction was finished. Corrections are damned hard to trade sometimes, because not only are they messy, but you often don't know they're over until price gets away on you and you're in deep shit.

We're in what is referred to as wave C, which looks like having three waves. The move down to 171.2 was the first move (a), the subsequent slow correction is b and wave c should follow. That wave is often very fast and furious.
  • #10,335
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:13pm Jan 23, 2014 11:13pm
Wow! Thanks so much. Elliot is complex but if you know it the tool is powerful. Yes it is looking bearish. Let's see if London gives this bad boy a smack down. So the trick is knowing what wave you're in and when it ends.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,336
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:27pm Jan 23, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting Temujin
Wow! Thanks so much. Elliot is complex but if you know it the tool is powerful. Yes it is looking bearish. Let's see if London gives this bad boy a smack down. So the trick is knowing what wave you're in and when it ends.

Just bear in mind that IF it is to break down, it may have a fight on its hands and might possibly have another bounce first.
  • #10,337
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:40pm Jan 23, 2014 11:40pm
Okay will do. Yes, it is tanking now. The market is rolling over and will not assume a bullish trend until the correction is over. This is only day 2 of it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,338
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:59pm Jan 23, 2014 11:59pm
The cool part is that we see it early. Being new at forex part of the mystery to me was the signals that are propagated through the mass forex media. By the time I see them it's a few hundred pips in the new direction and now all the risk is mine to join in. There is a way to see it without the conventional late signals;

The convergence of negative global growth data starting to come on to the scene. The equity markets slowly leaking not to cause alarm so the elite can exit first.
The rallies cease even on good data. Commodity dollars taking a beating along with metals, (CAD and NZD) AUD is a special case. Safe haven currencies rising.

Women stop going to the salons, men stop showering, it goes on and on.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,339
  • Jan 24, 2014 12:02am Jan 24, 2014 12:02am
My concern is that somewhere around here it may bounce furiously, just as it did on jan 17.
  • #10,340
  • Jan 24, 2014 12:15am Jan 24, 2014 12:15am
Quoting magicgate
{quote} GBPUSD is on the top today (need some retrace) USDJPY on the one step to go to 102.86 = geppy should go 172 first just my 2cent
172 reached, even 171.47
now i start loading small longs (after GBP retrace will load in full)
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