Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE) | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Made a 100% Winrate EA 26 replies

what can we do with 90% winrate? 130 replies

MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR 63 replies

Does anyone use a statistical edge 0 replies

How do you gain, and measure, your trading system's statistical edge? 29 replies

Attachments: Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)
Exit Attachments

Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #181
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:25am Jan 23, 2014 8:25am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Mikkk01, As is with commodities, do you not believe mean reversion exists with Forex; at least for the major pairs Proximus is trying to "trade"? Yes, the mean moves but not in the short term, not immediately. The problem with this system is when the mean does move and the system gets stuck in a trade it could possibly implode. If he can find a way to cut these "danglers" as I call them, why can't the system succeed? However, to do this would require thinking outside the norm. No 1:1 RR, no tight stop loss, no 1% of account wagered. In my...
good post, THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX you just nailed it. Short term this is a crazy way to trade (in my humble opinion) plus it is fast trades..
Speaking totally gambling ,a way to off set the loss would be to counter trade the trade with a higher pip value and it will even the trade out and even make pips. It is just to trade with the big boys. I
I do not mean trade a pair long and short at the same time like the idiots do or try and hedge, call it a new method to trade
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #182
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:27am Jan 23, 2014 8:27am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Mikkk01, As is with commodities, do you not believe mean reversion exists with Forex; at least for the major pairs Proximus is trying to "trade"? Yes, the mean moves but not in the short term, not immediately. The problem with this system is when the mean does move and the system gets stuck in a trade it could possibly implode. If he can find a way to cut these "danglers" as I call them, why can't the system succeed? However, to do this would require thinking outside the norm. No 1:1 RR, no tight stop loss, no 1% of account wagered. In my...
Good to see you at least don't claim anything saying 'I'm smartest'.

Point is: it's reasonable to change something in behaviour overall if what one is currently doing haven't brought him profitability - and that's not at all system-jumping [exactly what he and turvy do], on the opposite - just cease of insisting on always being right despite the results suggesting otherwise.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #183
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:33am Jan 23, 2014 8:33am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Good to see you at least don't claim anything saying 'I'm smartest'. Point is: it's reasonable to change something in behaviour overall if what one is currently doing haven't brought him profitability - and that's not at all system-jumping [exactly what he and turvy do], on the opposite - just cease of insisting on always being right despite the results suggesting otherwise.

Agreed.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #184
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:36am Jan 23, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} LOL Have a look at this: {image}
Maybe he has a point there.

Quoting billytt
Proxy, instead of trying to get an ea to fit your trades, actually this is aimed to any ea traders. EA hardly ever works , a couple of trades you'll gain due to the odds but how about approaching your boob method in a different way, ie using them as triggers plus you can even incorporate a grid type system
I was thinking about the boob method, but i find that correlated with economic news aftershock.I currently use that system, it defines well a rejection of news of some sort, the late-traders trying to push the price back to the equilibrium state.

Besides i have many more systems other than this one, you dont have to worry about me

I can work simultaneously on more than 1 things

Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} This is not true. You have nothing supporting your claim and can't prove it. {quote} He needs to get the hang of it without this stuff first. And that doesn't mean 2 days backtest. Actually U pattern is the only his idea that makes some sense...
Agreed, EAs do work.

And grid systems dont work they are BS.

Quoting billytt
I just started playing some motley crue music LOUD maybe this will get oil to move
Wtf you want with the oil

The oil always have an upward bias, it would not be so hard to trade that.

I`m more interested in the gold now, i heard rumors that the gold will rise again soon after the aftershock of this bearish sentiment will be gone.

So it would be wise to go long as soon as major news like Bloomberg TV or other sources will tell you too.

The major lesson i learned in the last 4 weeks or so is that technical analysis is BS. I pay more attention to fundamentals now.And try to quantify that, that is my main system now.Besides i have a little background in macroeconomy

I was very much inspired in trading by the Wallstreet movies.

Remember this quote: "The most valuable commodity I know of is information." --Gordon Gekko
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #185
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:42am Jan 23, 2014 8:42am
Proxy, you just did it again , just listen.. OIL has a bias IT WILL ALWAYS GO UP, every day their is less of it. But it is harder to trade it than you think..

How many people do you see in these chat rooms say OH I BEEN WRITING EAs for years etc, how many trading systems on the market selling EA based systems.
Think about it. be good

boob method,, forget about news just have it all logged down in your stats..
I bet when you back test a method news never comes into it, simple.
I am not trying to be negative
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #186
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:44am Jan 23, 2014 8:44am
Quoting ForexFury
{quote} Agreed.
So now it's pretty obvious why Turvy failed miserably while many other traders managed to succeed wasting years less by just embracing the philosophy 'I can't know it all' and identifying what is worth listening to.

That's it.

Take good stuff, dump crap. If one dumps everything he'll never do it as he ain't profitable by default and never will be cause he won't change anything.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #187
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:48am Jan 23, 2014 8:48am
Quoting Proximus
Maybe he has a point there.
You'd better decide already who you're gonna listen to as what we say is incompatible.

The fact that you couldn't yet recognise how dumb he is makes me wonder...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #188
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:54am Jan 23, 2014 8:54am
Quoting billytt
Proxy, you just did it again , just listen.. OIL has a bias IT WILL ALWAYS GO UP, every day their is less of it. But it is harder to trade it than you think.. How many people do you see in these chat rooms say OH I BEEN WRITING EAs for years etc, how many trading systems on the market selling EA based systems. Think about it. be good boob method,, forget about news just have it all logged down in your stats.. I bet when you back test a method news never comes into it, simple. I am not trying to be negative
Yes of course it cant go always up, people take their profits or hit SL and then price usually retraces, not all traders go long, otherwise how could the market function, there must be short traders too.

But the point is that the sentiment is bullish on the oil, because there is less and less in the planet of it.Ok maybe sometimes new oil fields are discovered, resulting in a bigger supply usually driving its price lower temporarly.

But in general the sentiment is always bullish but especially when the USD is bearish.The sentiment should be more important for long term traders.

I dont know your trade style, if you are scalping oil on 1M then its really sad, but if you trade it wisely on D1 or W1 charts then you are a pro

@ EAs, ok i`m not saying all EAs work, but the EA term in general is very effective.

If you can automatize your system, its the best thing possible, its trades faster, more accurately and more reliably than a human.

Plus you can leave it on overnight while you sleep and generate $$$ for you.

Its very advantageous, and also eliminates emotions.

@ my pattern, the problem with the boob pattern is that, it usually happens after news, its just a retracement after a period of indecision, but the retracement to be long and valid it must be triggered by a huge outbreak.

I dont think we can quantify that without considering the fundamental factors too Which i just cant ignore anymore ,sorry
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #189
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:57am Jan 23, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Proximus
The major lesson i learned in the last 4 weeks or so is that technical analysis is BS
That's pathetic.

You can't learn such a thing in 4 weeks but can easily learn the opposite in a couple of days reading threads with live trades based on technical data...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #190
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:01am Jan 23, 2014 9:01am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} You'd better decide already who you're gonna listen to as what we say is incompatible. The fact that you couldn't yet recognise how dumb he is makes me wonder...
Actually i agree with many stuff that he said.We both dont believe in technical analysis , which is already a huge step towards succes.

Now i dont care if you say he wasted 9 years, so what i wasted 1.5 also, not that much as him but hey, not all people learn equally fast.

No trader can become succesful overnight, some people need more time than others.I was lucky that i had programming skills and i could write indicators, ea's and other C# based softwares that could increase my research speed by atleast 200%

Without those skillls i would probably needed a few more years too for my enlightment.I was more enhanced and lucky sort of.

---------

On the other hand, you and magix still use BS indicator systems that are for no use and dont give any sort of edge.

I mean seriously, do you think that genesis system of yours can make you consistent profit, how much exactly (average) monthly increase can it make?

I`m curious, tell me ?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #191
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:07am Jan 23, 2014 9:07am
Quoting Magix
Using my Trade Explorer on your thread? This is total Bullshit!! FALSE ADVERTISING!!! Thread SCAM ALERT! {image}

Ok i removed it, i just wanted to compare our TE's results.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #192
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:11am Jan 23, 2014 9:11am
Quoting Proximus
On the other hand, you and magix still use BS indicator systems that are for no use and dont give any sort of edge. I mean seriously, do you think that genesis system of yours can make you consistent profit, how much exactly (average) monthly increase can it make?
Because you are without the ability to understand price in relation to the smoothing of indicators, doesn't mean they don't work. Just means that you haven't educated yourself to their merits

Because I have the ability to teach people the value and merits of indicators, only means that I have a better understanding of what they are saying.

You have no idea how or what I use to trade.

I have a few posted from yesterday evening.

Tell me again how better your market idea is again?
HERE
HERE
HERE
HERE
HERE
HERE
HERE

And please tell me why, without permission, you feel that it is alright to bolster your dogshit thread by applying my TE stats.

You can slink around with other trolls and newbies and shout out that others are the same, but you should at least have an idea of what you are talking about.
.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #193
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:15am Jan 23, 2014 9:15am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Because you are without the ability to understand price in relation to the smoothing of indicators, doesn't mean they don't work. Just means that you haven't educated yourself to their merits Because I have the ability to teach people the value and merits of indicators, only means that I have a better understanding of what they are saying. You have no idea how or what I use to trade. I have a few posted from yesterday evening. Tell me again how better your market idea is again? HERE...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #194
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:33am Jan 23, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes of course it cant go always up, people take their profits or hit SL and then price usually retraces, not all traders go long, otherwise how could the market function, there must be short traders too. But the point is that the sentiment is bullish on the oil, because there is less and less in the planet of it.Ok maybe sometimes new oil fields are discovered, resulting in a bigger supply usually driving its price lower temporarly. But in general the sentiment is always bullish but especially when the USD is bearish.The sentiment should...
that is more or less what I said,, it goes up ,each day less of it.
scalping oil on 1 min is stupid but one can see levels happening and of course have pc set to trade spikes. I wouldn't let fundamentals bother you too much, it is one more burden to carry
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #195
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:52am Jan 23, 2014 9:52am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes of course it cant go always up, people take their profits or hit SL and then price usually retraces, not all traders go long, otherwise how could the market function, there must be short traders too. But the point is that the sentiment is bullish on the oil, because there is less and less in the planet of it.Ok maybe sometimes new oil fields are discovered, resulting in a bigger supply usually driving its price lower temporarly. But in general the sentiment is always bullish but especially when the USD is bearish.The sentiment should...
I just re read this post... oil you got right, each day their is less EVERYTHING ELSE you said is just pure shit sorry.
I told you I no longer trade for a living but the last week I have just been playing, you could probably tell me to trade any pair and I would make a profit with it (fast mover) yes I am dick measuring but I have learned the skill to trade, and yes I listened to everyone no matter of their experience.
So where do you go next, just try listening
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #196
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:01am Jan 23, 2014 10:01am
Quoting billytt
So where do you go next, just try listening
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #197
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:09am Jan 23, 2014 10:09am
Proxy,,, why not change your pair to usa oil,,, every one knows it'll go up unless they manage to mine kryptonite,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #198
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:37am Jan 23, 2014 10:37am
can we speak about trading if not can we speak about Proxys method.
To be honest I have not read how he trades it as they do not work.
I am here to help
Do I assume once the ea is broken you trade that direction and what happens when it goes against you
I just cannot believe I am asking these questions I should be out speaking to the trees
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #199
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:43am Jan 23, 2014 10:43am
Proxy, how about trading the oil, long it until the next daily level which is about 250 pips away

edit,, it might level off in approx. 100 pips from now..
I am not saying it'll do it straight away but oil is oil
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #200
  • Jan 23, 2014 10:57am Jan 23, 2014 10:57am
so e/u is showing signs of levelling off, just suppose it goes down will Proxy be adding into a another short, or what happens if it keeps going north.
It can go either way for apprx 2000 pips
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
3 traders viewing now