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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,301
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:39pm Jan 22, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting Temujin
There are just too many signs coming on the grid now, I'm on the sidelines now. THIS MARKET IS LOOKING LIKE IT'S GONNA ROLL OVER.
No,! we were expecting a small downmove.....which is a buy, due to the longterm ....NZD has to go up.....interest rates at 4.5% in a year or two......
  • #10,302
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:41pm Jan 22, 2014 8:41pm
Still ain't convinced enough to close my position. I do hear some bears asking for yens but i'm also hearing the rest of the world shouting in unison YOURS!!

These are some murky waters we sail on, but we're still sailing...
  • #10,303
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:02pm Jan 22, 2014 9:02pm
As far as I'm concerned, the uptrend remains. Having completed this small pullback, next minor resistance is around 174.2 and (I expect) completion of this part of the move around the double top.
  • #10,304
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:09am Jan 23, 2014 12:09am
I hope so guys but to me this looks like the start of a risk off selling season.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,305
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:29am Jan 23, 2014 12:29am
174 you think MPT? It appears to be struggling to even get back to 173 now. Tokyo is closed and it's 90 pips down from the session high. If London slams it down that's it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,306
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:54am Jan 23, 2014 12:54am
...........RISE
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,307
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:24am Jan 23, 2014 1:24am
If it does pop up I think it's time to start looking for sell entries. The Nomura target I believe was 178 but it's only January. Perhaps a major risk correction in the market is needed before the bullish trend continues.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,308
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:29am Jan 23, 2014 1:29am
Quoting Temujin
174 you think MPT? It appears to be struggling to even get back to 173 now. Tokyo is closed and it's 90 pips down from the session high. If London slams it down that's it.
I can't lie. It looks bearish, but there is support between here and 172.2.

If they break, then GJ is probably in a large triangle with a bottom near 169. If the support holds, then 174.8.
  • #10,309
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:33am Jan 23, 2014 1:33am
Maybe they are gonna blast it up past 173 again and really go gonzo on the stopping volume to make sure everyone is on board as a buyer and then burn them up.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,310
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:40am Jan 23, 2014 1:40am
Yeah MPT it's looking sketchy. They are trying to bait us in I think. I don't know the correlation % at all but I went long on a EUR/GBP 3 year low and it's rising the more skittish GBP/JPY looks. The Widow Maker is trembling. This is gonna be drag out fight for dominance in London. Good luck to all us Dragon Riders, up or down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,311
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:48am Jan 23, 2014 1:48am
Bank black box algos hate uncertainty. With all those factors I mentioned earlier about the metal prices being depressed and safe haven currencies fattening up. The HSBC China PMI may have been the tipping point. This could be the start of a capital flight to safety here. CAD got no rate cut and still USD/CAD flew up like crazy. It's the Hindenburg Omen!! Just kidding but hey maybe we can get in on this huge correction early.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,312
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:55am Jan 23, 2014 1:55am
This Tokyo high is looking like a top resistance now LOL!!! I'm gonna sell this if it rises. China sneezed and now everyone is gonna catch a cold. Check out the daily chart it looks deformed. Some kind of strange acute angle that is unstable. I'm no good at reading strange patterns like that but it looks like it's gonna fall off a cliff here any moment. Can anyone give an opinion on the daily chart?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,313
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:01am Jan 23, 2014 2:01am
Ding ding ding ding. Open. They are gonna induce watch out. KA-BOOM and then right down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,314
  • Jan 23, 2014 2:39am Jan 23, 2014 2:39am
German Markit Manufacturing numbers came out strong and so we saw a pop. I wonder if this is the last good data we see and the market is peaking out now.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,315
  • Jan 23, 2014 3:17am Jan 23, 2014 3:17am
Coming into profit now on my sell order. Wow MPT I hope you are right. 169 would be forex bliss cause' this pair will get there very quickly if that is the case.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,316
  • Jan 23, 2014 3:26am Jan 23, 2014 3:26am
Quoting Temujin
Coming into profit now on my sell order. Wow MPT I hope you are right. 169 would be forex bliss cause' this pair will get there very quickly if that is the case.
I didn't say it was going down. I simply raised it as a possibility that if it were to fail here and break under support, then it MAY be in a triangle. It hasn't dropped yet
  • #10,317
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:01am Jan 23, 2014 4:01am
Don't know where you guys are getting your bearish picture from. 15 m is now rangy after the short burst up off the dily pivot to the 76.4% fib, but on that TF we still have the 200 exponential and simple MA supporting upward momentum. Hourly chart is showing good support from my moving averages at 17.265. H4 poens the picture up a bit, as we have hit and stalled at the 76.4% fib anchored from the high on the 2nd Jan. I want to see us drop from here to get a good buy position, but I don't see very much on the table at all right now as we're in no man's land, and will range for a while, and beyond that for today, I can't make any kind of prediction. But, we are still bullish, my technicals do not point to anything beyond a move down to 17.265 area. Same applies to cable, no bearishness there at all, except we are right up against the monthly 200ema which is definitely significant
  • #10,318
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:14am Jan 23, 2014 8:14am
Cat, so what do you think now that all the buyers jumped off like rats from a sinking ship? You didn't see that Tokyo move? Almost every single pip from the high to the low was removed and then getting back to 173 itself became a struggle. I sold it when it tried to pop back up in London. I sold it again in NY. And as for Cable, I said earlier there appeared to be a capital flight to safety as a risk off scenario was developing because of the rise in USD/CAD, lower metals, the HSBC China PMI numbers etc. GBP/JPY is a sell.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,319
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:49am Jan 23, 2014 8:49am
You did very well by selling at the high of the London session. I'm still kicking myself for not seeing the extent of this move. My mistake, if it can be called a mistake, is not to have noticed how far we had moved above the H1 200ema, and with the London high topping out as I said earlier just above the 76.4% fib, this was a sell that I did not see. No matter, they'll be many more opportunities . This pair is still bullish though, this move is for me just a technical correction nothing more. The Tokyo move meant nothing, there was a similar one on the 22nd, and yet we went higher. That is because it found support on the H1 200ema, whereas today we were so far above it that it had to come down, easily said with hindsight of course, but it is true. Now we are approaching the 200ema, so we'll see how it responds. The 4 hour chart is interesting, that shows that we could easily drop down to around 17,000. I'll have to wait for the next development now. What's your TP by the way?
  • #10,320
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:27am Jan 23, 2014 9:27am
Quoting cat
This pair is still bullish though, this move is for me just a technical correction nothing more. The Tokyo move meant nothing, there was a similar one on the 22nd, and yet we went higher. That is because it found support on the H1 200ema, whereas today we were so far above it that it had to come down, easily said with hindsight of course, but it is true. Now we are approaching the 200ema, so we'll see how it responds. The 4 hour chart is interesting, that shows that we could easily drop down to around 17,000. I'll have to wait for the next development...
. Looks like a 50% retrace to me (H4) - which is also a Kijun-sen (ichimoku) bounce - sorry no chart as away from my PC.

EDIT: Also possibly turning 172.000 resistance to support.
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