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Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #101
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:52am Jan 22, 2014 2:52am
Morning from UK, Hi Proxy. hope your are good. Have a good day.
I am scalping today (working on a method)
I tried something yesterday and was smashed to bits lol, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #102
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:33am Jan 22, 2014 3:33am
hi proxy watching you and your thread closely right from the thread started. All the best for your new thought. I think there should also be many more statistical gambling trading method. i have started learning about them online and in my college library. hope even i get a system that is profitable .
  • #103
  • Edited 4:41am Jan 22, 2014 4:05am | Edited 4:41am
Hello Traders,

I found this thread after trying the Holy Grail Indicator V1.6 found on Baby Pips and here at FF. I have 2 questions;

1) Is the original Goly Grail Indicator V1.6 being used and/or updated?

2) Where is the Gambling EA discussed in this thread for downloading? I would like to give it a try and what pair and t/f is optimum?

Thank You and Regards,
Cigarguy
Keep It Simple
  • #104
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:43am Jan 22, 2014 5:43am
Quoting cigarguy
Hello Traders, I found this thread after trying the Holy Grail Indicator V1.6 found on Baby Pips and here at FF. I have 2 questions; 1) Is the original Goly Grail Indicator V1.6 being used and/or updated? 2) Where is the Gambling EA discussed in this thread for downloading? I would like to give it a try and what pair and t/f is optimum? Thank You and Regards, Cigarguy


That was a total failure, i`m neither using that anymore or plan to update it, as i abandoned technical analysis for good.

I have not released the EA for this system yet, but i will soon once i finish my backtests, i have to update the system aswell, so many new information since then, so i must update it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #105
  • Jan 22, 2014 6:15am Jan 22, 2014 6:15am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That was a total failure, i`m neither using that anymore or plan to update it, as i abandoned technical analysis for good. I have not released the EA for this system yet, but i will soon once i finish my backtests, i have to update the system aswell, so many new information since then, so i must update it.
Sorry to hear that. It sounded good at the beginning of this thread It appears that you are a good programmer
Keep It Simple
  • #106
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:12am Jan 22, 2014 7:12am
Quoting Proximus
What do you think guys?
I think you'd stand a better chance moving to a higher time frame and looking for a dynamic range.

Your comprehension of the M1s is a little lacking and your idea of gains based on a generic position on any pair based on a single moving average are un-realistic.

Catching the pinnacles of plays using this methodology are weak at best.

If you are wanting to play in this playground working with a single Moving Average, it would be better applied through the use of CCI. Search the net, look for Woodies CCI and have a look at an actual strategy.

After that...

Begin to realize that BACK TESTS are worthless for the data they can provide on most time frames, ESPECIALLY the M1. These should be used to test to ensure your triggering, not for actual equity gains/curves.

This is a journey here, prox.

You have only taken one step.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #107
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:49am Jan 22, 2014 7:49am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I think you'd stand a better chance moving to a higher time frame and looking for a dynamic range. Your comprehension of the M1s is a little lacking and your idea of gains based on a generic position on any pair based on a single moving average are un-realistic. Catching the pinnacles of plays using this methodology are weak at best. If you are wanting to play in this playground working with a single Moving Average, it would be better applied through the use of CCI. Search the net, look for Woodies CCI and have a look at an actual strategy....
Quote
I think you'd stand a better chance moving to a higher time frame and looking for a dynamic range.

Your comprehension of the M1s is a little lacking and your idea of gains based on a generic position on any pair based on a single moving average are un-realistic.

Pardon me but how does exactly the higher timeframes help me.It doesnt matter on what timeframe i take the orders because the price moves exactly the same range on each timeframe.

M1 helps us better visualization and helps manual traders catch the trade quicker.

Quote
Begin to realize that BACK TESTS are worthless for the data they can provide on most time frames, ESPECIALLY the M1. These should be used to test to ensure your triggering, not for actual equity gains/curves.

Yes if you have a piece sh!t historical data then it really is.

If you data looks like this (for illustration purpose i used a very low quality M1 data for EURCAD, from you know where...):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcadm1adadasdads.png Size: 37 KB


Then i`m really sorry for you. Its a worthless cr@p data.

But if it looks like this, my ultra high quality tick data with 99.999% modeling quality:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1good data.png Size: 33 KB


Then i think i can do high quality backtests on M1.

NOTE that the time is set to january 2005.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #108
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:07am Jan 22, 2014 8:07am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} Pardon me but how does exactly the higher timeframes help me.It doesnt matter on what timeframe i take the orders because the price moves exactly the same range on each timeframe. M1 helps us better visualization and helps manual traders catch the trade quicker. {quote} Yes if you have a piece sh!t historical data then it really is. If you data looks like this (for illustration purpose i used a very low quality M1 data for EURCAD, from you know where...): {image} Then i`m really sorry for you. Its a worthless cr@p data. ...

Dude, seriously put him on ignore and stop wasting your time on him!!



You need tick data really, but can't do that on MT4 so never mind.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #109
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:16am Jan 22, 2014 8:16am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Dude, seriously put him on ignore and stop wasting your time on him!! You need tick data really, but can't do that on MT4 so never mind.
LOL that was tick data that i just shown.

I think you dont know what tick data means.I think you meanT tick chart, because anyway the smallest TF on MT4 is M1, but the data can be tick based.

The difference between tick data and m1 data is, that on tick data every tick is counted, while on m1 data 1 tick draws the entire candle and then closes, there is no movement between, meaning that the strategy tester on m1, will draw the candle after each minute passed, and draw nothing inbetween.Which is very incorrect representation.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #110
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:22am Jan 22, 2014 8:22am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} LOL that was tick data that i just shown. I think you dont know what tick data means.I think you meanT tick chart, because anyway the smallest TF on MT4 is M1, but the data can be tick based. The difference between tick data and m1 data is, that on tick data every tick is counted, while on m1 data 1 tick draws the entire candle and then closes, there is no movement between, meaning that the strategy tester on m1, will draw the candle after each minute passed, and draw nothing inbetween.Which is very incorrect representation.

It's not real tick data is it, it just randomly uses High / Low then the close number to emulate tick data, maybe.


Been years since I coded EA's 6+ I think, MT3 back those days.



Your entries might aswell be random, it's all about huge SL and tiny TP!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #111
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:28am Jan 22, 2014 8:28am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} Pardon me but how does exactly the higher timeframes help me.It doesnt matter on what timeframe i take the orders because the price moves exactly the same range on each timeframe. M1 helps us better visualization and helps manual traders catch the trade quicker. {quote} Yes if you have a piece sh!t historical data then it really is. If you data looks like this (for illustration purpose i used a very low quality M1 data for EURCAD, from you know where...): {image} Then i`m really sorry for you. Its a worthless cr@p data. ...

And yet...

HERE you are, missing about 19% off your statistical daily targets.

You can continue to think that you know more...it is the market that is showing you otherwise.

Pay ATTENTION!

Do you seriously think that you are the first to try a system with a single moving average on any time frame?
Are you really so naive to think that since interwebs trading has allowed folk to take part in markets and use automation that you are the first to have even tried this?
Cummon. All this talk about how smart you are and you are still missing forest through trees.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #112
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:42am Jan 22, 2014 8:42am
Quoting Magix
{quote} And yet... HERE you are, missing about 19% off your statistical daily targets. You can continue to think that you know more...it is the market that is showing you otherwise. Pay ATTENTION! Do you seriously think that you are the first to try a system with a single moving average on any time frame? Are you really so naive to think that since interwebs trading has allowed folk to take part in markets and use automation that you are the first to have even tried this? Cummon. All this talk about how smart you are and you are still missing forest...
Hi guys, back to bickering,,, erm one ema line is and has been standard for many years, be good, be nice, make love not war, not literally
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #113
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:59am Jan 22, 2014 8:59am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi guys, back to bickering,,, erm one ema line is and has been standard for many years, be good, be nice, make love not war, not literally
You need to apply context to this, billy.

As applied here, and is plain to see, this is no more than a random market trigger, that is laggy.

It's not bickering, turvy poking his nose into a conversation where he can add nothing, is just turvey showing his true trollish colors.

Prox is simply ignoring the obvious in trying to prove merit to his claims.

When you are NEW to market, this is what you do. This is something I have stated about his claims prior.

By early next week, unless prox has scrapped this idea or implemented changes, there'll be only the sound of crickets and blowing tumbleweed in another dead FF thread.

It is one thing to argue theory, but when you are arguing against the evidence you provide, it's pure arrogance. Nothing more.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #114
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:06am Jan 22, 2014 9:06am
Quoting Magix
{quote} You need to apply context to this, billy. As applied here, and is plain to see, this is no more than a random market trigger, that is laggy. It's not bickering, turvy poking his nose into a conversation where he can add nothing, is just turvey showing his true trollish colors. Prox is simply ignoring the obvious in trying to prove merit to his claims. When you are NEW to market, this is what you do. This is something I have stated about his claims prior. By early next week, unless prox has scrapped this idea or implemented changes, there'll...
it is the way one speaks, Some people are good at teaching they possess the skills to understand,encourage, guide, assess and explain so that rules you out lol.
I personally gave up with Proxy ages ago, I did try to help him but to no avail. I am not going to come into his thread and bs him. I will look and hope he gets his head together,I personally feel sad for his onlookers, There is not a holy grail but one can beat the market. I did and got out. be good trade well
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #115
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:11am Jan 22, 2014 9:11am
Quoting billytt
{quote} it is the way one speaks, Some people are good at teaching they possess the skills to understand,encourage, guide, assess and explain so that rules you out lol.


Before you come across with a blind sweeping statements like this, it'd be to your benefit to know what you are talking about.

Much like newbies blindly assess market without proper DD, you have done the same in your analysis of my character.

Bad form, billy.

Bad form.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #116
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:13am Jan 22, 2014 9:13am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} It's not real tick data is it, it just randomly uses High / Low then the close number to emulate tick data, maybe. Been years since I coded EA's 6+ I think, MT3 back those days. Your entries might aswell be random, it's all about huge SL and tiny TP!!
Its not randomly generated tick data, the random sticks are mostly on the first picture, but the real tick data is on the second EUR/USD picture.

It is real tick data compiled into M1 candlesticks, i dont know whats so hard to understand about that.

My entries are not the optimal yet so that needs a little bit of work for now.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #117
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:15am Jan 22, 2014 9:15am
Quoting billytt
so that rules you out lol
Actually what he so far said to Proxy makes good sense...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #118
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:16am Jan 22, 2014 9:16am
Quoting billytt
{quote} it is the way one speaks, Some people are good at teaching they possess the skills to understand,encourage, guide, assess and explain so that rules you out lol. I personally gave up with Proxy ages ago, I did try to help him but to no avail. I am not going to come into his thread and bs him. I will look and hope he gets his head together,I personally feel sad for his onlookers, There is not a holy grail but one can beat the market. I did and got out. be good trade well

It's an example of no SL trading, or huge SL compared to tiny TP, which is what we need around here, as everyone seems to be on the no SL band wagon and there all going to get on really well, then lose it all in no time!

It's entry is random, but no more so than anyone elses around here entry, so it's a good example.

A the title says, NO EDGE so perfect.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #119
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:17am Jan 22, 2014 9:17am
Quoting Magix
{quote} And yet... HERE you are, missing about 19% off your statistical daily targets. You can continue to think that you know more...it is the market that is showing you otherwise. Pay ATTENTION! Do you seriously think that you are the first to try a system with a single moving average on any time frame? Are you really so naive to think that since interwebs trading has allowed folk to take part in markets and use automation that you are the first to have even tried this? Cummon. All this talk about how smart you are and you are still missing forest...
Of course not, but its not the MA which is the center of attention here, but the SL and TP.

The entry is pretty much random, thats it, i dont believe in technical analysis so doesnt matter if i use a STOCHASTIC or PSAR or RSI or whatever, its all nonsense.

But the size of SL and TP optimized can increase the efficiency of this system.

And also dont ignore the fact that its a gambling system, not a holy grail nor a "forever profitable system"

It is designed to gamble, and if you are lucky then you can make money with it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #120
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:17am Jan 22, 2014 9:17am
Can we get back to business (aka Thread subject) and leave those arguments for other. There are people here interested in this, at least I am.

And don't worry, I'm responsible and only using money I can afford to lose...thanks!
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