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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #5,301
  • Jan 19, 2014 10:14am Jan 19, 2014 10:14am
Quoting mzvega
Hers's is an article that helps others in the distinction between MP & AMT...................................... CISCO 37 Years of Excellence in Auction Market Research CISCO Futures 1-303-306-1521 1-800 800 7227 Fax 1-303-306-1572 http://www.cisco-futures.com [email protected] Dialogue on the Two Systems: Holism and Objectivism Market Profile versus Value Based Analysis Donald L. Jones Copyright CISCO Futures 2007 Subscribers to the CISCO Short Course for daytraders are permitted a 15 minute question session per week. This dialogue...

Thank you, Mzvega, for this post. It is a great one. But what does it change?

Gaussian statistics is not valid for the market description unless the market is balanced. Well, let it be so.

@Cisco-futures “Auction Market Value Theory is, we believe, the first comprehensive theory of auction markets. Economists for long have held to the Sharpe-Markowitz Gaussian distribution theory for equities (Capital Market Theory, or CAPM). Their idea that the market was an equilibrium structure has proved wrong.”

Well, let it be so... once again. I have lately studied CAPM. It really uses statistical data. If "the market is not in an equilibrium", does it mean that CAPM is wrong? I think, it does not. Why? Because it has been working well enough for those purposes it was discovered. Do we have an alternative solution for these purposes? No, we do not. So we shall be using CAPM then.

@"If the price-volume curve is not bell shaped, obviously it is incorrect to apply gaussian statistical analyses."

It is not valid scientifically. OK. However what does it change? What should we use instead of this? I do not know. It is still working. It will be... Why? Because the market is not "Science-in-use" - the market is people doing their irrational desicions.

As to an advice, it is completely valid. The only thing I understood trading was that there were the only two day types - balanced or imbalanced (trending or non trending) - as soon as we have discovered it before real market actions, it gives us competitive advantages afterwards.
Hunting High and Low
  • #5,302
  • Jan 19, 2014 10:43am Jan 19, 2014 10:43am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Cisco-futures “Auction Market Value Theory is, we believe, the first comprehensive theory of auction markets. Economists for long have held to the Sharpe-Markowitz Gaussian distribution theory for equities (Capital Market Theory, or CAPM). Their idea that the market was an equilibrium structure has proved wrong.” If AMT has proved through data & analysis, that Gaussian distribution theory in financial markets is wrong, it would go against AMT basic fundamental principles to think that it does. So as long as you talking Gaussian distributions...

Quoting mzvega
{quote}So as long as you talking Gaussian distributions and reversion to mean type strategies with no regard to the data (facts), it will never have anything to do with Auction Market Theory or Analysis. And if that makes me a “religious fanatic” & “crazy” so be it. You can put “lipstick” on that assumption, and sell to other people in another thread who don’t know any better, just not to me. And as for me selling only AMT, why not?
There you have it again: you simply can not read, you simply are not able to follow a discussion, you simply are not able/willing to look over the plate or to be open to ideas, exchanges of ideas etc.

All you are able to do is mantra-like repeat the sentences of a paid service: http://www.cisco-futures.com/order_form.html , and to ridicule everyone who has other idea or trading concept.

And again you fail to recognize that the thread per the thread-starters wish is not only about ATM but also about MP.

When your opinion / CISCO opinion is, that MP is a big fail, so be it. But it has not much meaning in the discussion of what I have said in the beginning of this whole fuss you are making.

Prove me mathematically invalid, when I claim, that when price, after a consolidation zone, where it formed a bell-shaped curve (gaussian, cauchy, student-like or whatever) moves through the 3 SD marker tends to trend further in that direction overwhelmingly most of the time. That was the start of the discussion and nothing else you try to incorporate here. Prove it.........

Quoting mzvega
{quote}Let me guess, you would prefer that I sell MP methodology that’s exclusive and only applies to CME, and not FX? Just because you bought into it, put some “lipstick” on tick volume indicator and try to pass it off somewhere else as MP somehow being related AMT, doesn’t mean I will

Are you completely nuts? Where did I start a discussion, that MP only applies to CME markets and not to FX or other markets? Are you out of your right mind to lay words into my mouth I have never spoken, enhance discussion to topics we never discussed?


Quoting mzvega
{quote}Until then I’ll stick to TPO profile which is the “standard” for the industry
LOL, that is funny. CISCO regards themselves as the "standard" for industry, when in fact most institutional traders (big boys) have never used this method nor will ever.

Not saying here, that ATM does not work. And when you have really read all my remarks in this thread, I have never said so (that is especially funny, since MZVega militantly thinks, that I am against the use of ATM). Only thing I said is, that I think, that it is, at least for me, impossible to come to a trading proposal by judging 40 different topics MZVega told me to be all equal important in order to come to a trading proposal.

When all this 40 topics are important, how high will be the probability over time, that you get 4 or even more of the 40 topics interpreted wrong?


Quoting mzvega
{quote}Until then, it doesn’t matter, what your doing has nothing to do with Auction Market Theory or Analysis.
Again you fail to recognize, that I told from the beginning, that I do only incorporate some of the elements into my proprietary trading system.

And regarding the very start of this annoyingly developing discussion, my proposal had something to do with Market Profile/gaussian or gaussian-like distributions and what we have to assume statistically, when price runs into the 3 SD

All what you do and say here carries more and more away from that what was the topic then (and makes you look and act more and more foolishly), and more and more leads me to question, if you are by any means associated with CISCO. If so, you should say openly.......
  • #5,303
  • Jan 19, 2014 10:57am Jan 19, 2014 10:57am
Market profile uses TPOs as a way to organize "data" for Auction Market. Once the data is organized. You then you analyze the your data(TPO's). You don't trade the picture (indicator). TPO counts above & below the (TPO) VA, tell you if there is an imbalance of buyers or sellers. Single print tpos analysis tell you if the auction to the upside or downside is complete. tpo counts above & below value tells you if there is more longer TF participation above & below value. TPO analysis within the IB tells you if trading is dominated in public or institutional control etc. You monitor this market generation data for change and it tells the condition, and sentiment. Auction market analysis is about analyzing the data produced by the indicator. All this data is contained in the one indicator.

Thank you mzvega.You sumed it up!
Daytrader
  • #5,304
  • Jan 19, 2014 11:41am Jan 19, 2014 11:41am
Hello!

Don't know where I am erring here, so please help me as to why the commander box is not showing on my tpo chart.

Thanks
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Patience is magic
  • #5,305
  • Jan 19, 2014 3:33pm Jan 19, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I don’t have think, its statically proven, I don’t think, I just "do". Can your "profound" decisions devoid of the facts of do the same? Care to share statistics of your "profound" decision making methodology? If all it takes a little effort and analysis to trade in the right direction at least 80% of the time I'm good with it. I get back what I put in to my analysis The full study :http://www.cisco-futures.com/daytrad..._example2.html {image}
Let me quote from that article:

Addendum
The above data, Tables 1, 2 and 3, starting July 9, has been updated daily, i.e. in real time. Tables 1H and 2H below come from a historical database. This time period, June 15 through July 8, covers market activity prior to the strong uptrend in July. The goal to validate the proposition that reference point variables from Visual Graphic is enhanced by testing a wide variety of market conditions. This data set adds to that effort.

The flow direction from the Directional and Activity reference points from Tables 1H, 2H and 3H shows 12 agreements and 4 disagreements. This is a small sample and the variance is not well defined. However, this 75 percent agreement with prediction is quite high for complex entities such as auction markets. The aim is to get the odds on the traders side. A rule of thumb is that any tool that gets two to one (66%) is valuable.

As of August 17, when this is written, the live data shows 21 agreements and 3 disagreements on predicted flow direction. So far, that is 33 correct predictions, 7 misses, or 82 percent hits.


At least, they admitted it......

Nice try, MzVega, but sorry, when you offer me such an article, I really read it till the end, where I found above gem

Adding to that: it was only one market, and it was not Forex.........



And again: I have nothing against AMT, but I am against the way you discuss or argue
  • #5,306
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:14pm Jan 20, 2014 3:14pm
This whole discussion is completely insane. Someone asked me what the difference between a "composite" & an "overlay" profile. There is no difference, they are both merged profiles comprised of "TPO's". This is where Infinitus entered the conversation by suggesting that you put a volume profile on the chart and assume reversion to the mean.

It doesn’t work that way for “Auction Market Analysis” or “MP analysis” for that matter. And Infinitus keeps insisting that it does. It doesn’t matter how many ways I explain it, he doesn’t want to see my point. Maybe others will, and maybe not. After this post, I have nothing more to say about this discussion.
In order to perform Auction Market "Analysis" you need TPO data. Not tick volume at price at (volume profile).

Here's an analogy, if you're trading moving average crossovers, and there are no moving averages on the chart, the data is just not there. If you’re trading using “auction market analysis”, you need TPO data (profile comprised of TPO's).

If you aren't using a TPO profile, there are no TPO's to analyze. The data is just not there. Tick volume at price is not TPO data. It doesn’t matter if a volume profile is on the chart. If there is no TPO data to analyze, there is no data to perform “Auction Market Analysis”.

As I have already stated before for those “who can’t read”, I’m not saying that a person cant trade a volume profile, using whatever mean reversion strategy they choose, The only point that I have been trying to make is this: a volume profile doesn’t contain the data needed to perform “auction market analysis” (tpo data). The data is just not there.

Analogy: how do you trade a moving average cross over, if the only data you’re using on the chart is pivot points?.............

To avoid all this chaos, if you are trading a “tick Volume Profile”, direct your questions to Infinitus directly, so he can explain to you his methodology, so you too can make “profound” trading decisions such as his.

However, I trade using “Auction Market Analysis” which needs TPO data. I can’t possibly offer any advice about Volume Profiles or how to trade them. Nor do I care to do so. There is nothing I can, care, or am qualified to contribute on the subject…..

As for the TPO profiles used for AMT analysis for “tick based” markets, it is copy written to “Cisco-Futures”. They are also the only ones who have tested through research & data, the data that supports Auction Market theory & analysis. The site contains years of data, research, and background info, all this research is free. They do sell TPO data for futures markets. It’s for cleared volume markets only. But this is forex a “tick based” market. And anyone who knows something about Auction Market Analysis knows that a TPO profile contains all the data you need for AMT analysis, its available in real time in the profile. Anyone trading FX wouldn’t have need to purchase data. It’s on the chart.

Cisco-Futures did the research for Amt and analysis; they are the only source of info on “Auction Market Analysis”. The only way I can support my statements on the subject is to provide you with info directly from the source.

I provided statics of the methodology. And infinitus made a great point. That article didn’t use or test it on forex. For me it’s enough data to support the theory. So, I use it in forex every day. I can’t speak for anyone else but me, but for me personally, it keeps me trading in the right direction at least 80% of the time…………………………..
I shared my methodology & the statistics. I can’t disprove someone else’s methodology, it’s not mine. It’s their responsibility to prove their's. I've provided info & explained mine. Its not my job to explain, research, & test someone else's methodology. You would think they would have done that research already. If they haven't done their research, why should I have to do it for them, to prove a point? Not my job.

So, again to avoid all this chaos, if you are trading a “tick Volume Profile”, direct your questions to Infitius directly, he’ll tell you how to trade it. Feel free to discuss volume profiles; I can assure you won’t hear any comments from me. I can’t provide any useful answers or info about anything other than TPO profiles………………………… for me this is the end of that whole discussion.......................
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #5,307
  • Jan 20, 2014 4:02pm Jan 20, 2014 4:02pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote}The full study :http://www.cisco-futures.com/daytrad..._example2.html
Hi, this is an interesting study.
Could you explain please, what are

IB UPR POC - probably 'Initial Balance Upper Point of Control' ... if so, what does it mean and how is it calculated?

Volatility (daily range? rotation factor?)

TDE Facil (trade facilitation factor? calculation?)
  • #5,308
  • Jan 20, 2014 5:18pm Jan 20, 2014 5:18pm
Quoting mzvega
This whole discussion is completely insane. Someone asked me what the difference between a "composite" & an "overlay" profile. There is no difference, they are both merged profiles comprised of "TPO's". This is where Infinitus entered the conversation by suggesting that you put a volume profile on the chart and assume reversion to the mean. It doesn’t work that way for “Auction Market Analysis” or “MP analysis” for that matter.
Hi MzVega,

I think I have made it clear in several remarks here or in other threads as well as private messages, that I look at you as the authority here in FF when it comes to ATM.

But as much as I like to read all about your knowledge I would welcome when you would really try to reflect what other people also have to say or to propose and discuss openly and not narrow minded.

I again went back to the start of the discussion, and Muntu stated very clearly (see red marked text in the following quotation) that he mainly uses market profile / volume profile for trading preparation, and he asked what to do on trending days. So again it is you who confuses what was said and what not.


Quoting Muntu
How different is this overlay demand curve from a composite? from the meta profile? Maybe we should extend the VA in trend days to the second deviation? As an intraday trader who mainly uses MP/VP for trading preparation, how does one operate on trend days? I will try and read the other documents for more insight. I am very curious to compare the accurateness of the three day rule's VA/POC the the daily ones. {quote}
When you say now, that reversion to mean was my answer and argue, that reversion to mean is no concept of MP, you only (again) got half the true. This is, because I answered, that when price runs into the 3rd SD the likelihood is simply, that it will trend further in the initial direction, even when price mean revert or partially mean revert. I even backed that up statistically. Do you see the difference?

Yes, MP does not deal with SD's. It does rather deal with value areas (calculating the areas where 70% of the trading took place. It is just another concept.
But there are concepts in mathematics and statistics that stood the proof of time, and one of that is simply, that what I already stated.


Quoting mzvega
If you aren't using a TPO profile, there are no TPO's to analyze. The data is just not there. Tick volume at price is not TPO data. It doesn’t matter if a volume profile is on the chart. If there is no TPO data to analyze, there is no data to perform “Auction Market Analysis”.
As I have already stated before for those “who can’t read”, I’m not saying that a person cant trade a volume profile, using whatever mean reversion strategy they choose, The only point that I have been trying to make is this: [color=red]a volume...
When will you start to acknowledge, that in this case (for the argument or the answer to Muntus question) it is meaningless, if we debate about TPO or VPO?

The result for both is the same.......

When will you acknowledge, that some people prefer the use of VPO's instead of TPO's?

When will you acknowledge, that Muntu asked for MP or VP, and not ATM?

Just curious here.....

There are those who can't read, and others can't comprehend......




Quoting infinitus
{quote} Has my answer something to do with auction market analysis, in order to solve a problem which occurs quite often? And since the thread is also about market profile, what is wrong about it? Trading is all about probabilities

And there we have it: I asked you the right question from the beginning but you insisted on talking ATM when it was all about MP/VP and statistics

....for those who can not read nor can't comprehend


And to end this rant and the whole discussion: the discussion was not about which system is superior etc. But you made it that way.........


RIP


  • #5,309
  • Edited 7:41pm Jan 20, 2014 5:43pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting svengralla
{quote} Hi, this is an interesting study. Could you explain please, what are IB UPR POC - probably 'Initial Balance Upper Point of Control' ... if so, what does it mean and how is it calculated? Volatility (daily range? rotation factor?) TDE Facil (trade facilitation factor? calculation?)
These things are data & reference points that you you get from the TPO profile(meta profile). You assumed right about the IB POC. It contains the highest # of TPO's. That reference is used to count how many tpo's above it, and below it. It gives you sentiment of the first hour of trade. volitility is defined as the avg range of 30 min bars. the count would be for the day 48 bars. one day compared to the previous. if it has increase there should be more market oppertunity the follow day. Daily Range, is just that. Rotation factor, Rotation Sum of 30m bars = +1 if current high gtr prev period high, -1 if current low less than prev low at the end of day you"ll have a i.e. -12 that tell you the attempted direction of that day. TFF= total tpos/total of tick vol for the day. Tells you how well we are facilitating trade. is there 2 way trading a TFF of 1 means that there ways no 2 way trading just directional, a TFF over 3.5 mean we are auctioning rotational 2 way trading. All this data is for in book I posted a few times already. This info can also be found at the Cisco site. The book is more indepth. But the Cisco suggests prior knowledge of the auction process, by reading mind over markets. Without that prior knowledge a person may find it very hard to understand. I've spent a few years going through all the data. There is a lot of info on the site. You might have to go back a few pages but the links to the books are there. he also provides a free PDF download to the book directly at the site....................All this data can be found on the chart. I track this data with spreadsheets to simplify my analysis. Different sets of data produce different sets of results.
http://www.cisco-futures.com/
the references & research link is good place to start.

EDIT: I forgot to add that Initial Balance Upper Point of Control (upper or lower) references where the IB was located as a "percent" of the total range. daily range/ IB range*100(%)
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #5,310
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:05pm Jan 20, 2014 6:05pm
Quoting infinitus
the discussion was not about which system is superior etc. But you made it that way......... RIP
You on another runaway train here Markus?

Keep twisting words to fit your argument instead of reading what is put before you.

Is this the Edumacated version of Trolling?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #5,311
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:23pm Jan 20, 2014 6:23pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} You on another runaway train here Markus? Keep twisting words to fit your argument instead of reading what is put before you. Is this the Edumacated version of Trolling?
I appreciated your post.
Thank you for providing some insight, I now can put that whole conversation in the proper perspective
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #5,312
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:37pm Jan 20, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I appreciated your post. Thank you for providing some insight, I now can put that whole conversation in the proper perspective

I'm still working away here Mzvega...

Have a couple of these in sight and still reading through the thread.

They do, surprisingly line up with a lot of what I already watch, but again, for confirmation...can't hurt.

Keep on, Keepin on!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #5,313
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:25am Jan 21, 2014 2:25am
Quoting Magix
{quote} You on another runaway train here Markus? Keep twisting words to fit your argument instead of reading what is put before you. Is this the Edumacated version of Trolling?
Frankly saying: The biggest troll on my heels, chasing unicorns, feels qualified to open mouth here?

Didn't I told you that it is better to be quiet and thought to be a fool than to open your mouth and eliminating any doubt?


Cheap try here, Magix. But if you like another open exchange, where you get humiliation like last time, you are welcome. Please visit me in my own thread so that I have not to pollute this fine thread.

And now crawl back to your place,,,,,,
  • #5,314
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:37am Jan 21, 2014 2:37am
Quoting Magix
{quote} You on another runaway train here Markus? Keep twisting words to fit your argument instead of reading what is put before you. Is this the Edumacated version of Trolling?

And since you felt qualified to open mouth show the text and context where I twisted words. Welcome to statistics. I am keen to read about your knowledge about ATM, MP as well as as applied statistics


  • #5,315
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:30am Jan 21, 2014 7:30am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Frankly saying: The biggest troll on my heels, chasing unicorns, feels qualified to open mouth here? Didn't I told you that it is better to be quiet and thought to be a fool than to open your mouth and eliminating any doubt? Cheap try here, Magix. But if you like another open exchange, where you get humiliation like last time, you are welcome. Please visit me in my own thread so that I have not to pollute this fine thread. And now crawl back to your place,,,,,,

lol

You're special!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #5,316
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:50am Jan 21, 2014 7:50am
Quoting mzvega
These things are data & reference points that you you get from the TPO profile(meta profile) ...
Thanks for the informative answer.
I assumed that 'Volatility' stands for 'daily range' or 'rotation factor'. Anyway, now it became clear.

I appreciate your contributions here a lot.
  • #5,317
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:01am Jan 21, 2014 10:01am
Quoting Muntu
Hello! Don't know where I am erring here, so please help me as to why the commander box is not showing on my tpo chart. Thanks {image}
Sorry, haven't got to you sooner. I've been somewhat preoccupied. did you try installing
"Microsoft Visual C++ 2010 Redistributable Package (x86)" when you installed the indicator?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #5,318
  • Edited 4:35pm Jan 21, 2014 11:40am | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting svengralla
{quote} Thanks for the informative answer. I assumed that 'Volatility' stands for 'daily range' or 'rotation factor'. Anyway, now it became clear. I appreciate your contributions here a lot.
I appreciate your comment. Unfortunately, I worked off that assumption for awhile. My methodology evolves around the "context" of market condition. Data is just data, unless put in the right "context". But through trial & error and only after, did it ever dawn on me to pay attention to the "context" of of my information. Example of JD in MOM. I couldn't figure why his profiles never looked like mine. Overnight inventory as well, i couldn't understand what he meant. It took me a minute before I realized I had the methodology right, just not in the right context. On closer examination I realized that the authors analysis & info comes from the perspective of a Bond trader. I used same methodology, but I was applying the info in the wrong context. Now I pay very close to the context of the information I read. Volatility, from my perspective, is very different. But it doesn't take much for someone to want to take only an element of a methodology i.e. Volatility, and run with it. Then later insist its a MP or AMT concept, and for them the data tells them the same thing in their application. When we're working with 2 totally different sets of math. My definition of "value" can be very different, from someone elses. Its always good to ask a person what their "definition" of a piece of info is...............

p.s. the analysis info youre looking for would be in VBPT
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #5,319
  • Edited 2:38pm Jan 22, 2014 1:56pm | Edited 2:38pm
Be leery of people who spit “Market Profile” references & post MP "levels" in tick based market such as Forex. MP and its Methodology are exclusive to CME/CBOT. It is not used in Tick based markets. AMT is.

Don’t shoot the messenger, the only thing I’m “selling”, is common sense, get your info directly from the source and educate yourself. It’s apparent that a person spitting MP "levels" in FX, doesn’t know the first thing about either subject………. Any “MP” question asked in a tick based market can’t possibly be answered with anything other than an AMT answer….again anyone who knows the first thing about either subject knows this is common knowledge. Asking me a MP question will always result in an AMT answer……………….

I do complain that the thread is very quiet, it’s apparent that AMT doesn't appeal to those with a “retail traders” mentality. FF is definitely not the venue for anything other than a “retail mindset”. It’s very possible I’m not in the right place. It’s me who talks about things being put in the proper “Context”…….

But anyway, just to clear up any accusations that I somehow work for Cisco-Futures, the info & research is free………….
http://www.cisco-futures.com/theory_practice.html

"if you by any means have never read anything about either subject, you should admit it openly..........." If not you'll be embarrassed when presented with the facts.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #5,320
  • Edited 10:15am Jan 23, 2014 9:58am | Edited 10:15am
CME has tick volume available to it in real time. If tick volume was tradable in real time wouldn’t you think the CME would instruct you to just trade a tick volume profile? And give you instructions on how to trade it?

You can’t. MP per CME requires that data be converted to TPO’s. Your edge is in your analysis of TPO’s. You need TPO’s to determine the imbalance of buyers & Sellers, or any other analysis that concerns the profile. If you’re not trading a profile that contains TPO’s it’s impossible to perform analysis as per CME/CBOT.

I’ve provided a few pages of the CME MP handbook. You can see analysis is determined by the ability to count TPO’s. If you are not trading a TPO chart, how do you propose you analyze it when the data is not available??? If you’re trading a volume profile, you need a VP handbook, not a MP handbook. There are no TPO’s in a volume profiles. The “official” volume profile handbook should give you an idea on how to trade a volume profile; the MP hand book is best if used with a TPO chart. Please don’t take my word for it. Read the Handbook………………………Apples & oranges

The use of TPO's to analyze Auction Markets comes from "Auction Market theory". MP uses AMT as a way to analyze data through the used of TPO's. So if you're not using TPO's, it's niether MP or AMT.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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