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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,221
  • Edited 5:13pm Jan 20, 2014 4:27pm | Edited 5:13pm
This messy consolidation that has taken the form of a double triangle now appears to be in the last stages and should break out soon.
  • #10,222
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:05pm Jan 20, 2014 6:05pm
What would this triangle say?
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  • #10,223
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:20pm Jan 20, 2014 9:20pm
And that break out looks more and more to be to the upside. Looks like we are heading to the double top of 174.50
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,224
  • Jan 20, 2014 11:23pm Jan 20, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting 2301041124
What would this triangle say? {image}
I guess your question was answered.

One caveat about this move up - it MUST break over 172/172.1 ish to confirm as bullish, with the top of 174.8 as a probable initial target.

Failure to break and hold the 172 area puts GJ at risk of moving back to 170.4. If that happened, it would more than likely move down further after turning 170.4 into resistance.

GJ and UJ are exactly the same.
  • #10,225
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:04am Jan 21, 2014 1:04am
Yes, 172 holds the key here. The London "City Boys" will make the decisive break. We are just an hour into this H4 candle now. USD/JPY the same huh? I guess so and that's a great clue seeing USD/JPY is holding it's ground. So all the bank projections of 110 and onward can be a correlation of this next risk-on run up to the for GBP/JPY to the 174 area. I heard Nomura had a price target on the pair to 178. Remember the rush from 164 on? This could be the run to 174 again now on speculation of more stimulus measures to offset the effects of that approved corporate tax. Shinzo Abe is also clamoring for higher wages for the better inflation. The new NISA program will also begin to entice the savers out of cash and into the Nikkei with huge tax breaks on profits. A good incentive for people to buy into an index that has already risen 50%. So far it looks like the Japanese Government won't allow the gains on the yen pairs to be undone. I don't like buying this high but it can quickly turn into a situation where short sellers get burned over and over.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,226
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:17am Jan 21, 2014 1:17am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{image} {image}
update on this one, bearish trend develop couldnt get confirmed.

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #10,227
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:17am Jan 21, 2014 1:17am
It appears it's going for the break. This pair is known as "The Dragon" AKA the "Widow Maker". It takes balls of steel and an iron stomach because of the velocity and range. Good luck to all of you trying to saddle this beast.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,228
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:24am Jan 21, 2014 1:24am
Thanks Phanti, makes me feel a little better going long this high. Oh man.....my stomach feels queasy.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,229
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:37am Jan 21, 2014 2:37am
Quoting Mr.C
Hey traders. Hope you're doing well. GBP/JPY on the menu as first trade of the week. Sold the pair @ 171,270. Initial SL @ 171,670..
Quoting Mr.C
At the end of the day GBP/JPY is floating with +17 pips. SL has been moved to b/e as position will be left active through the night. Calling it a day. Trade safe!
Good morning people. Quick update on ‪GBP/JPY‬ as it was the first pair I had a look at today. My yesterday's short order has been inactivated at b/e. And there were hints for that yesterday. Leaving this pair aside for a while now.

Wish all a profitable and sunny day!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #10,230
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:09am Jan 21, 2014 4:09am
Quoting Temujin
Thanks Phanti, makes me feel a little better going long this high. Oh man.....my stomach feels queasy.
moving up now
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #10,231
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:49am Jan 21, 2014 4:49am
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  • #10,232
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:13am Jan 21, 2014 5:13am
It was supposed to be at 167.50 buy now as it failed at the weekly pivot. Amazing how Japan and friends worked the grind to twist the downward channel back up. Long at 171.87. 172 is broken. looks like we retest the 174 area in the coming weeks. This of course is all tentative on the BOE minutes and the BOJ monetary policy statement, both in the next 24 hours. The ideal would be a vote for England to hike rates sooner than later and for Kuroda at the BOJ to hint on increasing the stimulus measures, lol. I doubt we get that but some strong language for the BOE to be super hawkish would be good and for Japan to be ready to ease more if the new tax has an offsetting effect to the recent progress would be awesome. Good fortunes to all of you riding GJ and good luck!
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,233
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:35am Jan 21, 2014 5:35am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I guess your question was answered. One caveat about this move up - it MUST break over 172/172.1 ish to confirm as bullish, with the top of 174.8 as a probable initial target. Failure to break and hold the 172 area puts GJ at risk of moving back to 170.4. If that happened, it would more than likely move down further after turning 170.4 into resistance. GJ and UJ are exactly the same.
It found channel top at 172.18
  • #10,234
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:30am Jan 21, 2014 8:30am
Anyone else think the Geppy is running out of steam and opportunities are favoring the short side?
Taking responsibility means believing that your outcomes are self-generated
  • #10,235
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:03pm Jan 21, 2014 1:03pm
J Candle it looks to be that way but now I see an upward channel on the H4 chart. Look at the low of 168.34 on 1/13/14 and you can see a new trend line developing. Looks to be the classic higher lows and higher highs now. We need a good chart analyzer to help us with this pair as things on it have changed. Please anyone put in your 2 cents within the rules of the thread of course, I would love to see your opinions. Help needed.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,236
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:00pm Jan 21, 2014 2:00pm
I do see that wave structure you are talking about on the 4 hour chart. I study wave structures and the Fibonacci sequence relationships between the waves themselves as well as the reoccurring patterns they draw. To me that rally you are witnessing is in fact a small uptrend but it is what is known to be a "bull trap" because the preceding move before the rally was downwards which makes this rally a corrective wave that is retracing the larger decline.
Taking responsibility means believing that your outcomes are self-generated
  • #10,237
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:51pm Jan 21, 2014 6:51pm
Hold over about 172.2 is probably long, otherwise we could be seeing a small reversal pattern in its last stages.
  • #10,238
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:59pm Jan 21, 2014 8:59pm
I think you guys are right and there was a sloppy head and shoulders pattern there too. I also looked and saw a Harmonic bat that was bearish but resiliently the pair kept grinding higher. My plan was to sell it down to 167.70 or so but in one night last week it blasted up 170 pips and then selling was absorbed. Up to the BOJ and BOE now I guess. Must be ready to drop this long at any time and sell it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,239
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:45pm Jan 21, 2014 9:45pm
It's looking very bearish right now on that news even though the price is holding some. I TP'd it and sold it at 171.85 Just as expected from the BOJ. Nothing new. So if they are seeing improvement in the inflation and economy maybe no need for new measures in April at all. That is what this chart is looking like now. So If it's not exciting news now will it be to London? I don't think so.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,240
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:52pm Jan 21, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting Temujin
I think you guys are right and there was a sloppy head and shoulders pattern there too. I also looked and saw a Harmonic bat that was bearish but resiliently the pair kept grinding higher. My plan was to sell it down to 167.70 or so but in one night last week it blasted up 170 pips and then selling was absorbed. Up to the BOJ and BOE now I guess. Must be ready to drop this long at any time and sell it.
Now we just need GU to release from 1.65
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