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Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #41
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:40pm Jan 20, 2014 9:40pm
Quoting charvo
during a trading sequence, the 2nd trade, and all the Xth following trades, are entered not because the market shows an inefficiency (tell you where it's going), but because of the 1st trade is in DD. the whole trading logic is NOT appropriate..
The system takes only 1 trade at a time, it doesnt take another trade until all of them are closed.Its not an averaging/ pyramid system.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #42
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:19pm Jan 20, 2014 10:19pm
i was wrong then, sorry. deleted.

Quoting Proximus
{quote} The system takes only 1 trade at a time, it doesnt take another trade until all of them are closed.Its not an averaging/ pyramid system.
  • #43
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:21pm Jan 20, 2014 10:21pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} The system takes only 1 trade at a time, it doesnt take another trade until all of them are closed.Its not an averaging/ pyramid system.
This seems nice but a time will come that u will get a trade at a multi year high or low.
So, sure you acct survives, sure you only have 1 trade but basically the system will stop trading until that high/low is taken out. Can you wait for years or will you bite the bullet and close the trade a lose and start again?
This is the question that each person needs to answer.
How long can you wait?
1 week no trade?
2 weeks no trade?
30 weeks no trade?
Not trading means not earning to cover the drawdown.
  • #44
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:56pm Jan 20, 2014 10:56pm
Quoting dannyrose
Ok, so just thinking out loud here but isn't this the type of thing you could use to increase your account massively or blow you out completely? If the strike rate is high enough then surely you could use it to double your account in a short space of time then just withdraw your profits and do it again? If it blows up then so what? As long as you double your account more often than you blow it then you're banking money. Just an idea.

Increase account massively? Doesn't look like that to me. This will give you decent returns, considering the low frequency of instances where price crosses the middle BB band. Also the target is quite modest. Looks like a steady gainer with some risk.
  • #45
  • Jan 20, 2014 11:04pm Jan 20, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting shiva
{quote} Increase account massively? Doesn't look like that to me. This will give you decent returns, considering the low frequency of instances where price crosses the middle BB band. Also the target is quite modest. Looks like a steady gainer with some risk.
Default middle BBand is a 20SMA.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #46
  • Jan 20, 2014 11:06pm Jan 20, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting charvo
i was wrong then, sorry. deleted. {quote}
No prob.

Quoting 45drive45
{quote} This seems nice but a time will come that u will get a trade at a multi year high or low. So, sure you acct survives, sure you only have 1 trade but basically the system will stop trading until that high/low is taken out. Can you wait for years or will you bite the bullet and close the trade a lose and start again? This is the question that each person needs to answer. How long can you wait? 1 week no trade? 2 weeks no trade? 30 weeks no trade? Not trading means not earning to cover the drawdown.
What can you do but wait?

Exit ? When ? Where? Why? If the price will reverse then its worth the waiting assuming that it will.If it wont then bad luck, no way of knowing that ahead, so i would prefer waiting.

The worst thing can happen is it wipes out your account.That is depending on the leverage, lotsize, and capital in your account, because everything else is somewhat static.Those are the only things to worry about.

Of course risking a larger account is not an option, but decreasing the lot size to 0.5 -1% is a good option, and also using 1:1 leverage is a good option too.

30 weeks is just insane, i`ve never seen any trade last longer than 2 months, and that was after 2 year of backtest.No way it will last more than 3-4 months, it will either give a MC or reverse sooner.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #47
  • Jan 20, 2014 11:07pm Jan 20, 2014 11:07pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Default middle BBand is a 20SMA.
We use 30 SMA here it is the most optimal with 100 pipette TP.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #48
  • Jan 20, 2014 11:10pm Jan 20, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} We use 30 SMA here it is the most optimal with 100 pipette TP.
Thus the reason I made mention of that.

Unless Shiva was referring to using a 30 BB...but even at this, I don't know what the point is.

CCI 30 cross zero, Cross Middle Band of BB 30, and Price close against SMA 30 are 3 ways of saying the exact same thing.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #49
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:59am Jan 21, 2014 2:59am
Finally that nasty SELL trade finally hit the TP.Also won another quick one, so its now 2 wins in a row (wonder how many more i will get).
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #50
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:14am Jan 21, 2014 3:14am
Quoting Proximus
Finally that nasty SELL trade finally hit the TP.Also won another quick one, so its now 2 wins in a row (wonder how many more i will get).
well done proxy
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #51
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:21am Jan 21, 2014 3:21am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Thus the reason I made mention of that. Unless Shiva was referring to using a 30 BB...but even at this, I don't know what the point is. CCI 30 cross zero, Cross Middle Band of BB 30, and Price close against SMA 30 are 3 ways of saying the exact same thing.
Hey Magix, looks like my system will make more return /day than yours in its entire career
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #52
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:29am Jan 21, 2014 3:29am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hey Magix, looks like my system will make more return /day than yours in its entire career
cheeky boy,,,,,if you do that i'll show mine lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:34am Jan 21, 2014 3:34am
Quoting billytt
{quote} cheeky boy,,,,,if you do that i'll show mine lol
I mean seriously, i bet that the system will reach 10% gain by the end of the day if i let my PC on the entire day.

Others cant make 10% gain in a month, let alone a day

I think this system will be popular on FF.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #54
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:37am Jan 21, 2014 3:37am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I mean seriously, i bet that the system will reach 10% gain by the end of the day if i let my PC on the entire day. Others cant make 10% gain in a month, let alone a day I think this system will be popular on FF.
seriously bud, don't brag about it... you will have an off day,,,, actually bollox to that WOO WOO WOO, JUMP UP AND DOWN
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:41am Jan 21, 2014 3:41am
PSSSSSST BILLYTT <<<<<<< 500% UP ONE TRADE LOL, and that is last time I say anything like that in your thread Bud
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #56
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:08am Jan 21, 2014 4:08am
I just started longing g/j like earlier, trading similar to your method Proxy
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:22am Jan 21, 2014 4:22am
Quoting billytt
I just started longing g/j like earlier, trading similar to your method Proxy
Crap , accidentally i closed 1 trade manually.Bad luck.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #58
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:26am Jan 21, 2014 4:26am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Crap , accidentally i closed 1 trade manually.Bad luck.
how odd, when I was putting my g/j long on, my pc crashed lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #59
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:30am Jan 21, 2014 4:30am
Quoting billytt
{quote} how odd, when I was putting my g/j long on, my pc crashed lol
What do you mean by similar ? I use the MA as a tool to find the clusters of price as price will tend to fluctuate around the MA.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #60
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:33am Jan 21, 2014 4:33am
Here's my version of the ea. It doesn't wait for a candle to close, according to the instructions a cross is enough. I ran it on eurusd and it wins about 9 trades but then puts a sell on at 1.32616 on 13th September and it doesn't come back. That's 4 months now, would you want to wait that long?! Maybe a more ranging pair like eurchf would be better. Or how about usdhkd? You'd have to stop it from taking trades near the range tops but that could be coded into it.

Also to use 1:1 leverage then you need to trade 0.01 per every £1000 in your account so that's what it does.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 statistical gambler.ex4   3 KB | 470 downloads
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