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  • #741
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:55pm Jan 20, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting rehab
Hi MPB, this is my first contribution to your tread that I enjoy following it for a time now. I looked at AU and IMHO I see it could be making a second test of the broken bearish trendline (in red). Moreover, RSI might be still forming a divergence. I am looking to buy (I am also holding on long gold, I think Gold will go through the resistance). Thanks for welcoming me on your thread. Rehab {image}
Hi rehab,
Welcome again. Regarding AUD you could be right but for me I attempted a long after before the LL was made and it failed. So I am looking to sell a rally unless the rally is pretty big.
There are two possible areas on the 4H that I like.
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  • #742
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:41am Jan 22, 2014 3:41am
Quoting stewrigh
This is one of the best RR plays I have seen in a very long time. {image}


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  • #743
  • Jan 22, 2014 4:27am Jan 22, 2014 4:27am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} {image}
  • #744
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:38am Jan 22, 2014 11:38am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Jay, Thanks for the link. Will have a deeper look into it soon. I love reading others takes on COT. My COT analysis indicates the same thing bullish. I agree completely with Stu's bias although I may approach my position differently. My overall bias is simple and a little complicated at the same time. Long Term (Physical Market) - Very Bullish, too many fundamental reasons to list here. Have been steadily building a position here. This is my Insurance/Investment position. Medium Term (Stocks) - Bullish, if nothing else from a value point...
Thanks mike... being a man on the ground its always interesting to hear your views...I suppose with the kiwi and Aussie with possible rate hikes
coming that might give gold a kick...

http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/25...he-rba-deliver
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #745
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:50pm Jan 22, 2014 3:50pm
GBP/AUD - Long

I did say I was trying to stick to the majors but saw this one last night and could not help it and got long on a break of the marked candle. Why?
1) This pair in an uptrend
2) Price entered a predetermined demand area
3) EMA support in place
This is classic weight of evidence. No risk in this trade now with stop at BE.
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  • #746
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:09am Jan 23, 2014 4:09am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} {image}
Nice entry St..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #747
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:16am Jan 23, 2014 4:16am
Quoting mypipbull
GBP/AUD - Long I did say I was trying to stick to the majors but saw this one last night and could not help it and got long on a break of the marked candle. Why? 1) This pair in an uptrend 2) Price entered a predetermined demand area 3) EMA support in place This is classic weight of evidence. No risk in this trade now with stop at BE. {image}
One of my favourite pairs ... I missed it but glad you took it Mike, its through the monthly 100 ma.. it doesnt look like to much in front either ?
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #748
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:36am Jan 23, 2014 4:36am
Quoting j4d
{quote} One of my favourite pairs ... I missed it but glad you took it Mike, its through the monthly 100 ma.. it doesnt look like to much in front either ?
Thanks, so far so good. The current bar is looking a bit 'reversey'
Have my stop up under 1.87 now......hope I get a runner.
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  • #749
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:40am Jan 23, 2014 4:40am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote}.... I am looking to sell a rally unless the rally is pretty big. There are two possible areas on the 4H that I like. {image}
Nice little 'tap and go' there. I took the GBPAUD option instead....
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  • #750
  • Jan 23, 2014 4:25pm Jan 23, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting mypipbull
Dow
Bias This Week
It has to be with the prevailing trend which is Long but very cautiously. I would only initiate a trade if I could get 3R in-front of 16600.......
Looks like we might have an opportunity here.....orders placed

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  • #751
  • Jan 23, 2014 6:43pm Jan 23, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting mypipbull
USD/JPY
Bias This Week
Buy a pullback.
Looks good enough to me.

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  • #752
  • Jan 24, 2014 2:16am Jan 24, 2014 2:16am
Be careful Mike - I'm not in this,yet, but my bias is short now.

Quoting stewrigh
{quote} USDJPY - Think it's in a box - I'm waiting for a BO, if north target 110 if not - 98 - think the bearish divergence might play out so I'm waiting - No bias atm - I hate buying both these currencies. {image} Think you know my view on gold - I'm long - W bottom and bullish divergence {image}
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  • #753
  • Jan 24, 2014 3:02am Jan 24, 2014 3:02am
Another box Target 134? - H&S if neckline breaks,

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  • #754
  • Jan 25, 2014 2:18am Jan 25, 2014 2:18am
Anyone notice the difference - Think silver's got some catching up to do.

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  • #755
  • Edited 11:20pm Jan 26, 2014 12:46am | Edited 11:20pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone notice the difference - Think silver's got some catching up to do. {image} {image}
Sure has.....i would expect silver to do its volatile thing soon.

Also, Silver stocks for the last few weeks were on a bit of a 'relative' rampage. I am having to wait for a pullback before buying!
  • #756
  • Jan 26, 2014 12:53am Jan 26, 2014 12:53am

AUD/USD

On the whole the AUD has been just miserable. I am still long the GBP/AUD trade last week. This was the only position left standing at the end of the week.

Bias This Week

Sell any low risk AUD rally

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Dow

One word comes to mind....Grim. An opportunity did present and I took a loss on it. In saying that it was with the trend and the RRR was present so I stuck to my plan. That’s the way it goes. Looking at the Daily the EMA60 got well and truly taken out. However, on a number of recent occasions (June, Sep & Oct) a violation of the EMA still lead to a solid bounce. I would expect some support at about 15700 and may consider a final attempt long in this area if PA presents. Otherwise we could see an extended move to the downside.


Bias This Week

Flat or possibly a Long in the buy zone.

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EUR/USD

My short closed out for a loss which is pretty poor management on my behalf. I should not have allowed it to turn into a loss after the profit it saw. Lesson learned. The EUR still looks a bit bearish to me and Friday dropped a pretty bearish looking bar with a rejection of a 50% pullback from the Dec 27 high. General structure looks like LH and LL.

Bias This Week

Short Fridays bar or another low risk setup later.

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GBP/USD

The cable made another failed attempt at 1.66. I’m not sure if it’s just knocking at the door absorbing the supply with an eventual breakout higher or is it setting up for a major reversal? Looking at Fridays bar it was a massive down day. If you look at the Daily price structure it is still creating bullish HHs and HLs.

Bias This Week

Same as last week wait and see. I would be bearish below 1.625 and bullish above 1.66.

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Gold

We seem to have just beaten the top of the supply zone. This is very constructive for the bulls. If we can honestly clear this area and hold we could see substantial moves to the upside.

Bias This Week

Bullish above or flat

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NZD/USD

Well I definitely closed this position out too early for a tiny profit only. Another lesson learnt....again.

Bias This Week

Short if I can get 3R in front of 0.81

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S&P 500

Similar comments to the Dow except the buy zone is around 1770.

Bias This Week

Flat or possibly a Long in the buy zone.

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USD/CAD

Again another runaway week. No real place to get long.

Bias This Week

Maybe Long after an obvious pullback.

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USD/CHF

Strong USD weakness here where most other pairs showed the opposite. I think we can assume that this is still in a downtrend as we did make a LL.

Bias This Week

Short or flat.

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USD/JPY

Possibly get some support at 101.5. Below that maybe the rising trend line?

Last few weeks have see much larger bars than previous weeks. Perhaps something major brewing?

Bias This Week

Flat

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  • #757
  • Jan 26, 2014 12:59am Jan 26, 2014 12:59am
GBP/AUD
Will be moving my stop up to 1.8890 when the market re-opens.

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  • #758
  • Jan 27, 2014 3:21pm Jan 27, 2014 3:21pm
Two longs initiated last night.....now have no risk in them.
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  • #759
  • Jan 28, 2014 6:47pm Jan 28, 2014 6:47pm
Wow.....pretty big news....!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...y-expectations
  • #760
  • Jan 29, 2014 3:09am Jan 29, 2014 3:09am
Short both of these now too....
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