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Statistical Gambling System (High Winrate, but NO EDGE)

  • #21
  • Jan 20, 2014 2:32pm Jan 20, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting dannyrose
Ok, so just thinking out loud here but isn't this the type of thing you could use to increase your account massively or blow you out completely? If the strike rate is high enough then surely you could use it to double your account in a short space of time then just withdraw your profits and do it again? If it blows up then so what? As long as you double your account more often than you blow it then you're banking money. Just an idea.

You'll be surprised as to how fast and easily the account grows, then damn right horrified as to how fast it all goes away



Back tests look interesting though!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #22
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:02pm Jan 20, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You'll be surprised as to how fast and easily the account grows, then damn right horrified as to how fast it all goes away Back tests look interesting though!
Yes, that's what I mean though... double it, withdraw half, double it, withdraw half, double it, withdraw half, lose initial stake, start again, etc, etc.
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #23
  • Jan 20, 2014 4:11pm Jan 20, 2014 4:11pm
Quoting dannyrose
{quote} Yes, that's what I mean though... double it, withdraw half, double it, withdraw half, double it, withdraw half, lose initial stake, start again, etc, etc.
Half of it not because that would compromise the probabilities, because you will then have a higher chance for margin call.Instead only withdraw the profits, and hope that the profits will be bigger than the initial capital, which will be, so that even if you lose the account at some point, the cash you withdrawed was much greater than the initial capital deposited.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #24
  • Jan 20, 2014 4:18pm Jan 20, 2014 4:18pm
Soon i`ll post the update, i just had an important thing to do this afternoon so i`m back to work on the system now.Here is how it looks on backtest, no losses so far:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 30 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm12.png Size: 26 KB


In case you wondered, the new system will be traded on the 1M chart, so we will have atleast 20-30 no-loss trades/day
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #25
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:26pm Jan 20, 2014 6:26pm
UPDATE: VERSION 1.4 (HUGE UPDATE)

  1. Yearly return almost quadrupled since previous tries
  2. Risk of wiping out the account now can only happen with margin call, and its very reduced
  3. The system will no longer use a SL, if we lost a trade that will wipe out the entire account anyway, so it gives the price more space for rebound.I know its a very high risk situation, so only use cash that you can afford to lose!
  4. Money should be withdrawed frequently, but only the profit to keep the initial balance there, so that the % of a margin call happening is constant, not increased
  5. More trades, and higher winrate
  6. The system has now more frequent trades and probably easier to use
  7. Bollinger band removed since the system now doesnt have a SL, so its no point using it

Pair: EUR/USD
Timeframe: M1 (1 Minute chart)
Moving Average: Timeframe M1, period 30, price close, and simple moving average, shift 0
BUY ENTRY: If the price closed or simply moved above the SMA, and previously it was below or equal to the SMA, you enter long
SELL ENTRY: If the price closed or simply moved below the SMA, and previously it was above or equal to the SMA, you enter short
TAKEPROFIT: 100 pipettes on 5 digit broker or 10 pips on 4 digit broker
STOPLOSS: None
LOT SIZE: we will use now 1% of the account balance
LEVERAGE: 1:1 is the best, the more the leverage the higher chance of the margin call.

LOT SIZE (in MT4) = ACCOUNTBALANCEINCASH * RISKPERCENT/10000

Only 1 order open at a time, dont move TP, and dont close orders manually, wait for rebounce to your TP.Also dont forget to withdraw the profits frequently in case the margin call will wipe out the account.

Here is the new template:

Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl gambling system 1.4.tpl   < 1 KB | 829 downloads
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #26
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:33pm Jan 20, 2014 6:33pm
Quoting Proximus
UPDATE: VERSION 1.4 (HUGE UPDATE) Yearly return almost quadrupled since previous tries Risk of wiping out the account now can only happen with margin call, and its very reduced The system will no longer use a SL, if we lost a trade that will wipe out the entire account anyway, so it gives the price more space for rebound.I know its a very high risk situation, so only use cash that you can afford to lose! Money should be withdrawed frequently, but only the profit to keep the initial balance there, so that the % of a margin call happening is constant,...
You started a TE to go along with your thread. Whether it works or not, this is the right way to do things.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #27
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:39pm Jan 20, 2014 6:39pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You started a TE to go along with your thread. Whether it works or not, this is the right way to do things.
Yes, i just finished the beta version of the EA, so it is time to put a TE to see how well the system works in forward test.I will mostly trade @ LONDON-> NY session when the spread is low, but i checked and the spread didnt made that much difference, so basically you can trade this system at any time except news time, and also i`m following the V1.4 rules.

Also using 1:100 leverage on the account to reduce the margin call's chance as much as possible on a this small demo account of 100€.

Here is a pic of my gamble EA in beta version:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1s.png Size: 38 KB
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #28
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:42pm Jan 20, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes, i just finished the beta version of the EA, so it is time to put a TE to see how well the system works in forward test.I will mostly trade @ LONDON-> NY session when the spread is low, but i checked and the spread didnt made that much difference, so basically you can trade this system at any time except news time, and also i`m following the V1.4 rules.
Good luck with your forward tests.

Best way to learn is to watch and see for yourself!

Great efforts Prox.

I knew ya had it in ya!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #29
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:50pm Jan 20, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Good luck with your forward tests. Best way to learn is to watch and see for yourself! Great efforts Prox. I knew ya had it in ya!
LOL i cant believe i`m using NO SL system ,just like you . But alteast mine is more optimized to diminish the chances of a margin call as much as possible, but we shall see how good idea is it.

Lot is 1% of the account, so the chance of a MC is almost none, while TP 100 pipette and a 1:100 leverage is also acceptable.But only trading on EUR/USD because its low volatility and low spread size.Its very optimal if i`d say that way.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #30
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:56pm Jan 20, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} LOL i cant believe i`m using NO SL system ,just like you . But alteast mine is more optimized to diminish the chances of a margin call as much as possible, but we shall see how good idea is it. Lot is 1% of the account, so the chance of a MC is almost none, while TP 100 pipette and a 1:100 leverage is also acceptable.But only trading on EUR/USD because its low volatility and low spread size.Its very optimal if i`d say that way.

A journey of a thousand miles always starts with the first step.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #31
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:05pm Jan 20, 2014 7:05pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} LOL i cant believe i`m using NO SL system ,just like you . But alteast mine is more optimized to diminish the chances of a margin call as much as possible, but we shall see how good idea is it. Lot is 1% of the account, so the chance of a MC is almost none, while TP 100 pipette and a 1:100 leverage is also acceptable.But only trading on EUR/USD because its low volatility and low spread size.Its very optimal if i`d say that way.
Looks interesting enough.. Good luck buddy!

  • #32
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:26pm Jan 20, 2014 7:26pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes, i just finished the beta version of the EA, so it is time to put a TE to see how well the system works in forward test.I will mostly trade @ LONDON-> NY session when the spread is low, but i checked and the spread didnt made that much difference, so basically you can trade this system at any time except news time, and also i`m following the V1.4 rules. Also using 1:100 leverage on the account to reduce the margin call's chance as much as possible on a this small demo account of 100€. Here is a pic of my gamble EA in beta version: {image}...

Way to go Prox! Are you going both long and short? What happens if you get caught in a trend?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #33
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:57pm Jan 20, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Way to go Prox! Are you going both long and short? What happens if you get caught in a trend?
What do you mean by that, not simultaneously, its not a grid system, but we trade in each way if the trigger is right.But only 1 trade active at once.

If i get caught in a trend then i pray that it will reverse, and it probably will, no trend lasts forever, sometimes an order can be open for weeks if its too negative, but eventually it will bounce back.Its important to have the discipline to not interfere with the orders once they are set, only wait and let the market sort it out.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #34
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:07pm Jan 20, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} What do you mean by that, not simultaneously, its not a grid system, but we trade in each way if the trigger is right.But only 1 trade active at once. If i get caught in a trend then i pray that it will reverse, and it probably will, no trend lasts forever, sometimes an order can be open for weeks if its too negative, but eventually it will bounce back.Its important to have the discipline to not interfere with the orders once they are set, only wait and let the market sort it out.
Got it!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #35
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:31pm Jan 20, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} What do you mean by that, not simultaneously, its not a grid system, but we trade in each way if the trigger is right.But only 1 trade active at once. If i get caught in a trend then i pray that it will reverse, and it probably will, no trend lasts forever, sometimes an order can be open for weeks if its too negative, but eventually it will bounce back.Its important to have the discipline to not interfere with the orders once they are set, only wait and let the market sort it out.
Please clarify. If TP is not reached and condition for entry is met in the opposite direction, you should not the
trade? Thanks
  • #36
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:35pm Jan 20, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting aelimian
{quote} Please clarify. If TP is not reached and condition for entry is met in the opposite direction, you should not the trade? Thanks
Nope, only 1 active trade at a time, otherwise the risk of margin call increases, imagine of both trades go wrong that doubles the chance of margin call.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #37
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:38pm Jan 20, 2014 8:38pm
It has been 2 hours since i opened the trade.Probably at an unlucky position, lets hope it will reverse, probably it will in 1 or maximum 2 hours:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdm1.png Size: 40 KB
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #38
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:42pm Jan 20, 2014 8:42pm
M1 EURUSD.

Bottom indicator shows each time the 30SMA gets breached. Green above, red below.

Just a little visual for ya.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30sma.png Size: 45 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #39
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:46pm Jan 20, 2014 8:46pm
Quoting Magix
M1 EURUSD. Bottom indicator shows each time the 30SMA gets breached. Green above, red below. Just a little visual for ya. {image}
Thats nice, it can be useful for those who trade this system manually. But i trade it with my EA, so its for no use to me

Maybe you can post a link to this indicator.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #40
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:59pm Jan 20, 2014 8:59pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Thats nice, it can be useful for those who trade this system manually. But i trade it with my EA, so its for no use to me Maybe you can post a link to this indicator.

Commodity Channel Index, set to period 30, Close.

Stock Meta4 indicator.

Set only the zero line.

This is just a coloured version.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cci.png Size: 42 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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