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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #129,581
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:01am Jan 19, 2014 8:01am
Hi Phanti,
thank you for your input. It was very informative

Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} to give a heads-up... {image} {image} {image} best, Jonas
  • #129,582
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:45am Jan 19, 2014 8:45am
Hi Mike,
so I´m backtesting breakout situations this weekend and I´ve got a question. Here´s EURAUD daily chart from 2012, there´s a nice trend line. So I was looking for breakout and confirmation and I found one on H4 timeframe (marked with first green arrow). My question is: Would this BEOB be enough for you to confirm breakout (since it´s relatively small and all)? I have one more question. I marked with second arrow another BEOB. Would you still consider this bar as a confirmation of breakout trade or too much time has passed and you wouldn´t trade that?

Mav
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  • #129,583
  • Jan 19, 2014 9:38am Jan 19, 2014 9:38am
Quoting PhAnTi'
{quote} to give a heads-up... {image} {image} {image} best, Jonas

Hey Phanti,
Like your assessment. I'll be short with PA.
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Happy New Year everyone!
Safe trading.
  • #129,584
  • Jan 19, 2014 3:27pm Jan 19, 2014 3:27pm
What do you think about this trade idea, if I may ask?

Long GBPUSD, on the break of the last daily bar high, stop below last bar low, take profit around recent highs (orange area).
Risk 170 pips to make 120 pips (to orange area).

Why? Bullish Outside Bar (last bar) at a key level (blue area). The level is also important on weekly (second chart). Trend is UP.
We have price action at a key level.

Why not? Red trouble area before take profit level. And not much other confluence to the setup. Fibo 61.8% retracement (not shown) is slightly above the blue area.

What do you say? :-)
We could also trade it using a limit order around 50% of the last bar, and take profit at the red area. But this seems more risky as we will miss a confirmation.
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Michal9
  • #129,585
  • Jan 19, 2014 4:22pm Jan 19, 2014 4:22pm
You guys interested in the EURUSD weekly BEOB should check out AUDUSD weekly

Weekly BEOB and break below and close LCS.
  • #129,586
  • Jan 19, 2014 6:16pm Jan 19, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting michal9
What do you think about this trade idea, if I may ask?
Hi Michal,
for me this would be no trade. Here´s why. You´re right, long term we´re in an uptrend but right now we´re in consolidation so there´s not much space around this BUOB (that´s why we should trade them at swing lows because there´s more space around them) and trade management becomes more tricky, minor ppz become more important in consolidation. I agree with your FTA, I´d like to just add that it is also 1.65 BRN, so you would be trading right into it (usually we should trade away from them). In my opinion there are better trade opportunities out there. Personally, i will wait if there will be established some nice pattern and wait for breakout situation.
Anyway just my opinion

Mav
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  • #129,587
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:01pm Jan 20, 2014 3:01pm
Hi Mav, thanks a lot. Very helpful.
So you are saying price action signal such as BUOB should be traded at potential swing lows / highs (BEOB) and not in consolidation, like the case above, correct?
So, in other words, it would be better to trade if the price first dropped significantly, then printed BUOB at a key level, right?
Michal9
  • #129,588
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:43pm Jan 20, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting michal9
So, in other words, it would be better to trade if the price first dropped significantly, then printed BUOB at a key level, right?
Yep
Have a look at Mike's posts regarding traffic vs space.
At the latest, it's advised to adapt trade management to the traffic its heading into.
Continuation bars can be played as well. They are told to be trickier and to require a strongly story supporting them.

Take care
Slow & steady
  • #129,589
  • Jan 20, 2014 5:57pm Jan 20, 2014 5:57pm
Hi all

Do you have someone indicators showing the divergence?

Thanks Darek.
  • #129,590
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:49am Jan 21, 2014 6:49am
Quoting Mav13
Hi Mike, so I´m backtesting breakout situations this weekend and I´ve got a question. Here´s EURAUD daily chart from 2012, there´s a nice trend line. So I was looking for breakout and confirmation and I found one on H4 timeframe (marked with first green arrow). My question is: Would this BEOB be enough for you to confirm breakout (since it´s relatively small and all)? I have one more question. I marked with second arrow another BEOB. Would you still consider this bar as a confirmation of breakout trade or too much time has passed and you wouldn´t...

Mav ,
the second arrow shows the retest of the trendline and it's a more conservative entrance, there are people who wait for this confirmation and do not enter if there's no retest!

You know i'm not so experienced but this is what i think.

cheers.
  • #129,591
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:50am Jan 21, 2014 6:50am
What do you think about this beob on EURNZD?

Would you go short???
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  • #129,592
  • Jan 21, 2014 7:31am Jan 21, 2014 7:31am
Quoting deankenny21
You guys interested in the EURUSD weekly BEOB should check out AUDUSD weekly Weekly BEOB and break below and close LCS.
Just a heads up, weekly BEOB I mentioned above, already pulled back and 1st touch of new support turned resistence Took it on a confirmed H4 recjection of 1st touch of the break area
  • #129,593
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:41am Jan 21, 2014 8:41am
Quoting deankenny21
{quote} Just a heads up, weekly BEOB I mentioned above, already pulled back and 1st touch of new support turned resistence Took it on a confirmed H4 recjection of 1st touch of the break area

Hey D. I'm short this one too
  • #129,594
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:47am Jan 21, 2014 8:47am
Quoting toti1981
Hi Guys, hi Mike, i would start looking for shorts next week. What do you think? {image}
Hey T


This chart is pretty choppy so I haven't had much interest in the euro

We can actually see divergence and a squeeze into the BRN here. This is a crucial area I believe


So be careful here. I would watch for PA around this area to go long before shorts until the overall structure of this pattern is gone

Best
Mike
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  • #129,595
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:00am Jan 21, 2014 9:00am
Quoting Mav13
Hi Mike, so I´m backtesting breakout situations this weekend and I´ve got a question. Here´s EURAUD daily chart from 2012, there´s a nice trend line. So I was looking for breakout and confirmation and I found one on H4 timeframe (marked with first green arrow). My question is: Would this BEOB be enough for you to confirm breakout (since it´s relatively small and all)? I have one more question. I marked with second arrow another BEOB. Would you still consider this bar as a confirmation of breakout trade or too much time has passed and you wouldn´t...
Hey Mav

Yes the 4hr is a valid bar confirmation but not a strong enough one for me to take. The difference being the concept and trade is correct but different styles will depend if you are going to pull the trigger on that. I used to trade more (meaning bar strength, pattern strength, etc being less strict) but now a days I trade a lot less and it cuts down on your drawdown(although profit too I have found). I'd pass on that cause a better bar is around th corner.

The second bar is a better and yes still valid one. I prefer it even more so on the daily though.


The one thing here is that this is really just a brekaout of a trendline rather then a breakout of a specific pattern. The two are different in my book even if the plays are the same


Best
Mike
  • #129,596
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:02am Jan 21, 2014 9:02am
Quoting long2339
Hi all Do you have someone indicators showing the divergence? Thanks Darek.



Hey D


It's always best to learn to read price to show you divergence. Will improve your chart and situation reading skills. Throw up some examples of where you think you see divergence. We'll let you know if you are on the right track. It will become second nature when you do it for a bit. Eventually you don't even need an oscillator like MACD to show you it.


Best
Mike
  • #129,597
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:44am Jan 21, 2014 9:44am
although we are just getting things going


New official james16group twitter @james16group https://twitter.com/james16group

yes I know we are behind the times! We are catching up
  • #129,598
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:56am Jan 21, 2014 9:56am
Hi Mike

Yes I know, you're right. But ...I'm testing the new strategy and based on the divergence, daily time frame.I have not enough time to scan the market. I need indicator to save time.

Darek
  • #129,599
  • Jan 21, 2014 1:47pm Jan 21, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting patapouer
{quote} Yep Have a look at Mike's posts regarding traffic vs space. At the latest, it's advised to adapt trade management to the traffic its heading into. Continuation bars can be played as well. They are told to be trickier and to require a strongly story supporting them. Take care
Thanks... a quick one... when you say: "adapt trade management to the traffic its heading into" do you mean deciding where to take profits, e.g. at the trouble area, e.g. for a full position vs. scaling out, etc? Or you meant something else by "trade management"? Or other question... where can I learn more about "traffic"?
Michal9
  • #129,600
  • Jan 21, 2014 2:37pm Jan 21, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting michal9
{quote} Thanks... a quick one... when you say: "adapt trade management to the traffic its heading into" do you mean deciding where to take profits, e.g. at the trouble area, e.g. for a full position vs. scaling out, etc? Or you meant something else by "trade management"? Or other question... where can I learn more about "traffic"?
very very quick response:
check Mike's posts here, as well as his videos on the public side of James 16 private forum.
You'll have quite a lot of answers in there

I'll need a bit more of time to discuss further if no senior member appears ...

take care
Slow & steady
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