why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 88 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,741
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:10pm Jan 16, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting billytt
T, I thought that tree dweller would of made an appearance by now
Ad hom attacks are a sure sign of defeat, billy.....
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,742
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:12pm Jan 16, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting Turveyd
Anyway had enough of this BS haven't got the time to waste on fools, enjoy going around in circles!! Billy feel free to say Hi in my journal ever sir and keep at em!!

And Turv runs away...again!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,743
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:13pm Jan 16, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} no bud, it is rare that I have looked at any ones TE, normally they are using pretend money so it doesn't really count. I traded inside bars - open range breakout- levels , I had stats going back to 2000 and any none trader keep quiet that my stats never went back further, The previous stats had to be gathered manually but my system didn't recognise them. The stats helped me gauge the probability of my trade being good. If I had a TE yesterday, I would of made a massive amount of pretend money, its all bollox. in reality I traded £1 just...
Oh, well that's easy so solve, link your TE to a live account, like I have.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,744
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:24pm Jan 16, 2014 4:24pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Oh, well that's easy so solve, link your TE to a live account, like I have.
Hey jmn, congrats for your 2% gain since i last saw your TE.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,745
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:30pm Jan 16, 2014 4:30pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Oh, well that's easy so solve, link your TE to a live account, like I have.
Bud, you are missing the point. I have been scalping for 3 days. I am playing out of boredom (lousy weather here)
the time here in uk is 22-30 look at daily charts e/u inside bar, e/j and g/j outside bars, they should still be like that until midnight, I never ever traded g/j but after midnight see what happens, I am not saying tomorrow things will happen maybe the day after BUT the high/low will be broken, I am not speaking scalping I am speaking serious trading, Get your act together and trade , stats will help. maybe they may say e/j has a good chance of dropping then retracing , just get stats, seriously bud I want to help you guys out
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,746
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:32pm Jan 16, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Ad hom attacks are a sure sign of defeat, billy.....
one step ahead as always, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,747
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:39pm Jan 16, 2014 4:39pm
Quoting billytt
I believe the guys here are trying to actually make a forward projection and then be able to trade off it (I think) I do not think it is feasible but it is an interesting concept and yes the market is not random but it does suffer from random things , CONTRADICTORY
I don't think this thread was ever intended as a trading thread, but a thread for discussion (hence why it's in TRADING DISCUSSION and not INTERACTIVE TRADING). I sincerely doubt the original intent was to have traders throwing up screenshots of their methods and trades, which contributes very little towards the philosophical or theoretical aspect of whether markets are predictable. You could give us 100 winning trades with 100 screenshots, but unless you're articulating WHY you think those trades were winners, you haven't really contributed squat.

On the other hand, something like this...

Quoting jmn5611
Before we can move forward in prediction, we have to define this term, as it has become clear that the definition is subjective. What is your definition of "prediction"?
Seems to be much more in line with the purpose of this thread: discussion. And to be honest this question was a major problem from the start of the thread and I can't believe it hasn't been raised until now.

So what does "prediction" mean? In the truest sense of the word to me, prediction means that based on past knowledge you are able to accurately quantify a certain outcome given a certain situation. Throw a ball in the air, and given it's initial velocity, mass, etc. you will be able to predict where and when it will land, every time (in a vacuum )

Much like the weather analogy I've used before, I do believe dynamic systems can be forecast qualitatively. It's not "predictive" in the truest sense of the word, but as far as making money goes, staking out and taking a position with the expectation of a positive move in your favor (but which can neither be quantitatively predicted in magnitude nor longitude) is as much a prediction as the weatherman telling you it's going to rain in four days. It may rain earlier than expected. It may rain heavier than expected. It may not rain at all! But the weatherman is still going to be making his "predictions," and that is the sense in which I believe the market can be "predicted."
  • #1,748
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:40pm Jan 16, 2014 4:40pm
Well, this thead has gone to shit. All in favour, say AYE PORK PIE!
  • #1,749
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:43pm Jan 16, 2014 4:43pm
Quoting GDR3k
Well, this thead has gone to shit. All in favour, say AYE PORK PIE!
AYE PORK PIE
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,750
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:46pm Jan 16, 2014 4:46pm
smittens, I did ask days earlier how accurate the predictability should be , every thing you wrote is true. otherwise this thread is keeping us off the streets and it is funny at times, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,751
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:51pm Jan 16, 2014 4:51pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} AYE PORK PIE
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  • #1,752
  • Jan 16, 2014 5:01pm Jan 16, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hey jmn, congrats for your 2% gain since i last saw your TE.
You are quite welcome! Ask your bank what interest was to any account over the last 18 days? Another way to do it is to find out what 2% every 18 days annualized is. But this is all talk.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,753
  • Jan 16, 2014 5:08pm Jan 16, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting billytt
smittens, I did ask days earlier how accurate the predictability should be , every thing you wrote is true. otherwise this thread is keeping us off the streets and it is funny at times, be good
I think we're on the same page.

Quantifying the odds of what is often an intuitive thing (assuming discretionary trading here) is difficult without devoting yourself to it (instead of actually trading). I can't tell you any odds of my trades. I can't tell you what the odds of my next trade being successful are, because it's discretionary and all I can hope is that I get a good entry which runs in my favor, and can reasonably assess when that move has run out of steam. I also believe that the odds that most purely mechanical systems traders give are bunk; they're that good until the market conditions for which the system was built changes. I always have targets, but they're never strict. More like volatility guidelines, if anything. E.g. we're in a low ranging environment on the EURUSD right now, and I have price targets of 60 pips opposite the daily high and low. If my trade entry is good enough to be near the daily high/low for the day, I'm looking to at least reach those 60 pips as the EURUSD rarely has a range below this (although this is something that actually is quantifiable and is just laziness on my part not defining this). If I've entered somewhere in the middle of the range, I'm looking to at least reach that area and ideally move past it, but fully with the expectation that given the current market conditions, the odds are against it. If volatility breaks out and I can run with a trade, great!

Left brain / right brain traders. I think left brain thinkers would be better off building mechanical systems which take away all emotion and trade for them based on some quantified factor they can work at improving. I think right brain thinkers are better off discretionary trading and focusing on controlling their emotions, risk management, etc. I also think a good right brain thinker will always outperform a good left brain thinker because of aforementioned reasons about understanding human psychology and the flow of the markets. Always struck me as more of an artistic endeavor than something that could be drilled down into formulas.
  • #1,754
  • Jan 16, 2014 5:18pm Jan 16, 2014 5:18pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You are quite welcome! Ask your bank what interest was to any account over the last 18 days? Another way to do it is to find out what 2% every 18 days annualized is. But this is all talk.
Well since the current FED rate is 0.25 you probably made more profit in the last week than your bank would give you if you'd deposited the money at them, so good job!

What strategy did you used?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,755
  • Jan 16, 2014 6:29pm Jan 16, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} I think we're on the same page. Quantifying the odds of what is often an intuitive thing (assuming discretionary trading here) is difficult without devoting yourself to it (instead of actually trading). I can't tell you any odds of my trades. I can't tell you what the odds of my next trade being successful are, because it's discretionary and all I can hope is that I get a good entry which runs in my favor, and can reasonably assess when that move has run out of steam. I also believe that the odds that most purely mechanical systems traders...
Ignored
,most traders have the wrong perspective .infact one could say its pre determined by the way they percieve information,
how can we unlock the way we veiw information
http://netdna.webdesignerdepot.com/u...rain/thumb.jpgThe concept of the left and right brain only lately popped up in the late 1960′s, but since has become a well-known part of human psychology.
While we all use both sides of the brain, each of us has a dominant side, and this dominant side makes up for a huge part of our personalities.
Each individual thinks a certain way, has more interest in certain areas, and above and beyond all — is most effective in certain ways.




Our brain is divided into two halves, as most of us know: the left and right side. Each side processes information very differently than the other, and the biggest difference is the visual aspect


Right Brain

Those with a right-side dominant brain depend more on visual references for understanding and are often times visual learners.
They are more emotional, swayed by feelings, and are able to better understand and reflect on these feelings. Furthermore, right-brained thinkers are very intuitive and curious about the world.
Finally, as a down side, they tend to be disorganized, lacking in time-management, and unable to prioritize well.
Left Brain

The left brain is the side that handles organization and logic.
Because of this, those that have a dominant left side are also very organized; they prefer schedules and deadlines, and love rules and regulations. They are more auditory learners, and are better at using words to remember things rather than visual aids.
They process ideas in a step-by-step, algorithmic way, and are therefore less prone to error.


Their Relation to Art, Design, and Creativity

As one may have probably already guessed, those with dominance in the right brain may be more naturally creative.
It’s easy to assume this because for one, right-brained thinkers are less common than left, so it seems as though one would be seeing the world differently from everyone else.
  • #1,756
  • Jan 16, 2014 6:34pm Jan 16, 2014 6:34pm
Did anyone traded this one ? (the labor news @ 0:30 UTC)

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OMG what i nice trade i missed , anyway i think i will enter short because i saw that the AUD correlated with China is facing big problems, so i think the AUD will be bearish for a while.This bear breakout was only the beginning.

Also according to Bernarke, the USD is in relative good shape for now, so i`m very bearish on the AUD/USD

(Also despite the fact that you guys are way offtopic here, i`m trying to predict some prices by using fundamentals )
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,757
  • Jan 16, 2014 6:34pm Jan 16, 2014 6:34pm
http://mindmedia.com/braintest.htm

lif your interested in determining which side of the brain your using you can take the test here
  • #1,758
  • Jan 16, 2014 6:37pm Jan 16, 2014 6:37pm
heres my result
Your Brain Usage Profile:
Auditory : 56%
Visual : 43%
Left : 52%
Right : 47%



your hemispheric dominance is equally divided between left and right brain, while you show a moderate preference for auditory versus visual learning, signs of a balanced and flexible person. Your balance gives you the enviable capacity to be verbal and literate while retaining a certain "flair" and individuality. You are logical and compliant but only to a degree. You are organized without being compulsive, goal-directed without being driven, and a "thinking" individual without being excessively so.
The one problem you might have is that your learning might not be as efficient as you would like. At times you will work from the specific to the general, while at other times you'll work from the general to the specific. Sometimes you will be logical in your approach while at other times random. Since you cannot always control the choice, you may experience frustrations not normally felt by persons with a more defined and directed learning style.
You may also minimally experience conflicts associated with auditory processing. You will be systematic and sequential in your processing of information, you will most often focus on a single dimension of the problem or material, and you will be more reflective, i.e., "taking the data in" as opposed to "devouring" it.
Overall, you should feel content with your life and yourself. You are, perhaps, a little too critical of yourself - and of others - while maintaining an "openness" which is redeeming. Indecisiveness is a problem and your creativity is not in keeping with your potential. Being a pragmatist, you downplay this aspect of yourself and focus on the more immediate, the more obvious and the more functional.
  • #1,759
  • Jan 16, 2014 7:47pm Jan 16, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
Not to sure why anyone is bothering, the market is far from Random ( H4 via candle stick well okay it's random ), but if you break down to the nitty gritty M1, it's obviously not random, far far far from it. We've been through it all a 100 times already, they ignore everything or twist it that doesn't suite there it's random bias, there is no point repeating it endlessly, leave them to stick to martingaling matrix systems and take there money. So.... Accidentally ofcourse Kill them all!! Accidentally ofcourse Kill them all!! Accidentally ofcourse...

Snigger; I like that word. When I read it in your post, it made me smile.

They should have an emote icon for that.

Said twice, it's even better. Oh, well, back to work...
  • #1,760
  • Jan 16, 2014 8:00pm Jan 16, 2014 8:00pm
Ok its time to enter short after the AUD/USD hit back the levels before the news:

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What do you think guys?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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