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  • #721
  • Jan 15, 2014 3:18pm Jan 15, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} Hey stu, hope your xmas was cool.. I like EA to the long side ?...only imho {image} {image}
Ja,
I completely understand your bias too. I do however see LH and LL price structure on the 4H, this could be part of an ABC correction but I am very weary of the overhead resistance on the EA.
In saying that the AUD is again looking pretty weak as my AU profit got quickly gobbled up over the last few days.

Thanks for visiting! Always appreciate you thoughts.
  • #722
  • Jan 15, 2014 4:08pm Jan 15, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Ja, I completely understand your bias too. I do however see LH and LL price structure on the 4H, this could be part of an ABC correction but I am very weary of the overhead resistance on the EA. In saying that the AUD is again looking pretty weak as my AU profit got quickly gobbled up over the last few days. Thanks for visiting! Always appreciate you thoughts.
understood Mike, and i agree, the H4 swings are very orderly, flow is within reason and poses a great bias to the downside in this TF, Stu's bias is a good call
too.. the Monthly flow must be huge at 1.55 and layering down..
because of slight uncertainty ( for me ) I wont be trading my daily bias because of conflicting TF's or at least until a definitive bias is gained. Not always, but i do notice this pair likes near/close term support which is the 1.6250 handle which leads me to think EA large players will want to absorb current level orders to gain liquidity for long term downside ?.. a bullish daily close above 1.5374 ( mma 200 ) might bolster my bias if used as support, if downside uses as
mma 200 as support it could fall away..

all interesting, but only my thoughts...

Nice to see posting again Mike, hope all is well...
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #723
  • Edited 4:52pm Jan 15, 2014 4:09pm | Edited 4:52pm

I have organised my current MT4 account to be connected to a Trade Explorer.

I only began trading 10 days ago so there is not a lot of data there yet.


I am currently trading 10 markets in my MT4 account. The 4 majors & 3 commodity FX pairs, Gold, S&P500 and DJ30.


I am a pretty private person so I am making this Trade Explorer visible to my 'buddies' only. Over the years I have 'virtually' met a number of people on this forum and others. I only want to share with people who I respect and those who's opinion I value. It obviously takes time to build such a friendship so if you subscribe to me and I do not subscribe back then do not be offended I am just getting to know you

It also goes without saying that I expect my buddies respect my trust and keep my results to themselves. I know they will as they have done nothing to suggest otherwise

Just to be very clear, I do not think my trading is special in anyway and this is not why a I'm limiting the visibility of my results. In a virtual world where trust should always be an issue you have to be selective about who you let in and who you listen to. I am a firm believer that "if you’re going to talk the talk, you've got to walk the walk". This Trade Explorer is a natural extension from creating a 'journal with pictures' (talking the talk) to showing your account real results (walking the walk).


So if any other members are interested in contributing to the thread in a constructive and respectful manner please feel free. Who knows we may end up becoming buddies


Good trading to all.

  • #724
  • Edited 4:51pm Jan 15, 2014 4:28pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting j4d
{quote}..........but only my thoughts......
Ja,
Given your musical taste I'm sure you will appreciate this......
The first thing that popped into my head when I read you comment above.....

"All I am are my thoughts
All my thoughts
All I am are my thoughts
What I'm not"

Lyrics from my favourite band of all time....sorry they are not British.....
  • #725
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:17pm Jan 15, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting mypipbull
I have organised my current MT4 account to be connected to a Trade Explorer. I only began trading 10 days ago so there is not a lot of data there yet. I am currently trading 10 markets in my MT4 account. The 4 majors & 3 commodity FX pairs, Gold, S&P500 and DJ30. I am a pretty private person so I am making this Trade Explorer visible to my 'buddies' only. Over the years I have 'virtually' met a number of people on this forum and others. I only want to share with people who I respect and those who's opinion I value. It obviously takes time to build...
Nice to see you opening a trade explorer. I did the same just last week. I have followed and enjoy your thread very much.
Safe trading
  • #726
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:27pm Jan 15, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Ja, Given your musical taste I'm sure you will appreciate this...... The first thing that popped into my head when I read you comment above..... "All I am are my thoughts All my thoughts All I am are my thoughts What I'm not" Lyrics from my favourite band of all time....sorry they are not British.....

I had to look those lyrics up on the net....Isnt it great when a tune can change your emotions...


“The only truth is music.”

Jack Kerouac
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #727
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:01pm Jan 15, 2014 6:01pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hey Stu, I'm not a fan of the dollar long term either however, there are always of short term opportunities. Until the USD dies 'proper like' you can only trade what's in front of you. Its like my Long S&P500 position, I am Bearish but Long. The US indexes are in a dangerous bubble (IMHO probably like yours) but until it pops I am just allowing it to put money in my account. You and your bias's .....

Yep I always had a problem going against my bias, even if I see an opportunity - I'd rather wait till PA lines up with my bias.

I just can't buy something if I think it's a sell whatever the charts say lol.
  • #728
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:42pm Jan 15, 2014 6:42pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Nice to see you opening a trade explorer. I did the same just last week. I have followed and enjoy your thread very much. Safe trading
Great minds maybe?....thanks Winston and good trading to you too.
  • #729
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:44pm Jan 15, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} I had to look those lyrics up on the net....Isnt it great when a tune can change your emotions... “The only truth is music.” Jack Kerouac
Nice
  • #730
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:45pm Jan 15, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Yep I always had a problem going against my bias, even if I see an opportunity - I'd rather wait till PA lines up with my bias. I just can't buy something if I think it's a sell whatever the charts say lol.
Fair play.....stick to ya guns
  • #731
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:49pm Jan 15, 2014 6:49pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} After that solid red candle on the 4H I halved my position just in case. Looks like it rebounded a bit and is still just hanging in there. It is still looking a bit weak. Will probably get stopped out on this one. {image}
Sometimes you just have to have a bit more faith.....at least I'm still half in it
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  • #732
  • Jan 16, 2014 3:00am Jan 16, 2014 3:00am
Quoting mypipbull
S&P500 - Long I am not a believer in the long term of this bullish run but the price action was a gift yesterday. {image} {image}
Just had my own 'fat finger' moment.
I went to do a partial sell on this trade but ended up selling at market a new position (closed it immediately for a spread loss) then went to do it properly and close the whole position.......stupid me......perhaps it may be for the better?......
  • #733
  • Jan 18, 2014 9:54pm Jan 18, 2014 9:54pm
AUD/USD

Last Week

I got stopped out on a Long position. It appeared to be building a bit of a base for an upside move but this was ruled out after four consecutive days of heavy selling. Looking at the latest COT charts I see something very interesting. It appears that the Commercials may now be unwinding their hedge positions. The Commercial Net position has now ticked down to follow price. This scenario can lead to substantial moves in the current direction. I have posted about this before:


Quoting mypipbull
{quote}.....


Bias This Week

It’s a no brainer. Sell any AUD rally since the next obvious support level is way down near 0.8.

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Dow

Last Week
No trades taken. Last week did print a LH and a LL (the second consecutive). Looks to be battling to go higher but given the improving US economy (wink wink nod nod) it could go higher again.

Bias This Week

It has to be with the prevailing trend which is Long but very cautiously. I would only initiate a trade if I could get 3R in-front of 16600.

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EUR/USD

Last Week
My short that was opened on Wednesday hung in there despite an attempt to reverse on Thursday. Friday closed below the previous weeks low so we may be underway here for a larger move down. Next barrier is 1.33

Bias This Week

Hold Short.

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GBP/USD

Last Week
The cable is hanging in there. There looks to be perhaps more selling than buying pressure up here. After the pretty hefty rejection of 1.66 a few weeks ago it seems to have just chopped away.

Bias This Week

Wait and see. I would be bearish below 1.625 and bullish above 1.66. There are probably better opportunities elsewhere.

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Gold

Last Week
I closed my short out (for a loss) before the market closed Friday due to the market looking so strong. There were encouraging moves to the upside in a market that has been beaten up by the central planners. I am very bullish Gold long term. We managed to get another close back above the EMA60. The problem now is breaking the thick supply zone I have marked which will take some work. However, if we get clear of 1270 we could see larger moves to the upside.

Bias This Week

Short term bearish or flat

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NZD/USD

Last Week
The short opened on Wednesday has worked itself nicely into profit so far. It has work in front of it with the EMA60 and a short term uptrend line to contend with. Next challenge would be 0.81 I would expect quite a battle there. Below that it’s down near 0.77.

Bias This Week

Hold short.

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S&P 500

Last Week
As noted in my thread, I stuffed up my trade management on this one. Not a bad result as we were right at resistance. Need to just take things a bit slower. Comments similar to the Dow.

Bias This Week

Cautiously Long or flat

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USD/CAD

Last Week
Wow just another runaway week. No real place to get long unless you chased it (not my preference). Next possible challenge at 1.11 but even that looks a bit lightweight. After that it’s 1.17

Bias This Week

Long after an obvious pullback.

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USD/CHF

Last Week
After taking an intraday Long entry (and closing half of my position too early) I am still long. While no higher weekly high was made we did have a solid gain for the week. Assuming we break the recent high the next challenge will be around 0.925.

Bias This Week

Hold Long.

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USD/JPY

Last Week
No too much ground made or lost. We did print another LH and LL on the weekly chart (more evident on the Daily). This structure makes a reasonable case for possibly a deeper pullback which would have to be seen as a reason to get long. The dominant trend here is unquestionably up however from a quick eyeball the large weekly triangle that formed looks to have completed its measured move.

Bias This Week

Buy a pullback.

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  • #734
  • Jan 19, 2014 12:40pm Jan 19, 2014 12:40pm
Hi MPB, this is my first contribution to your tread that I enjoy following it for a time now. I looked at AU and IMHO I see it could be making a second test of the broken bearish trendline (in red). Moreover, RSI might be still forming a divergence. I am looking to buy (I am also holding on long gold, I think Gold will go through the resistance). Thanks for welcoming me on your thread. Rehab
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  • #735
  • Edited 10:33pm Jan 19, 2014 1:08pm | Edited 10:33pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Just had my own 'fat finger' moment. I went to do a partial sell on this trade but ended up selling at market a new position (closed it immediately for a spread loss) then went to do it properly and close the whole position.......stupid me......perhaps it may be for the better?......
USDJPY - Think it's in a box - I'm waiting for a BO, if north target 110 if not - 98 - think the bearish divergence might play out so I'm waiting - No bias atm - I hate buying both these currencies.

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Think you know my view on gold - I'm long - W bottom and bullish divergence

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  • #736
  • Jan 20, 2014 5:08am Jan 20, 2014 5:08am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Think you know my view on gold - I'm long -
This chart says it all......short squeeze anyone?
Attached Image
  • #737
  • Jan 20, 2014 9:04am Jan 20, 2014 9:04am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} This chart says it all......short squeeze anyone? {image}

Makes sense...catch all those short players to fill the big long orders..

the jury is out with me atm... 1179 certainly seems like the line in the sand, trend is down so currently only shorts for me but I'm on the
sideline atm... shape and form might suggest a descending triangle ?
or it stays above 1179 and starts to build longs ?... there doesn't seem to be any conviction though in the last five weekly bar closes..
In the smaller TF interesting balanced waves of buying and selling have started which is always a good sign and it might project up to
the daily TF next ?..

whats your bias Mike ?

This guy has bullish Gold and his calls are normally alright... backs up Stu's bias..

http://cotstimer.blogspot.co.uk/



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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #738
  • Edited 3:15pm Jan 20, 2014 2:20pm | Edited 3:15pm
Another Box - Bias long

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  • #739
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:46pm Jan 20, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} .. whats your bias Mike ? This guy has bullish Gold and his calls are normally alright... backs up Stu's bias.. http://cotstimer.blogspot.co.uk/ {image} {image} {image}
Jay,
Thanks for the link. Will have a deeper look into it soon. I love reading others takes on COT. My COT analysis indicates the same thing bullish. I agree completely with Stu's bias although I may approach my position differently.

My overall bias is simple and a little complicated at the same time.

Long Term (Physical Market) - Very Bullish, too many fundamental reasons to list here. Have been steadily building a position here. This is my Insurance/Investment position.

Medium Term (Stocks) - Bullish, if nothing else from a value point of view they are deeply undervalued and seem to be making some ground north. I have been slowly building a PM stock portfolio. This is my Investment/Speculative position.

Short Term (Paper) - Bearish to flat as mentioned in my journal. This is purely trend following like another market. This is my Speculative position.

I am very bullish the PM markets and 100% believe in the long term bullish fundamentals. Because of this having an unleveraged position in the physical metals market means I don't have to pick the absolute bottom. Timing is very important for short term leveraged moves but not so for long term.

Hope alls well and the weather has improved a bit for you up there.
  • #740
  • Jan 20, 2014 5:03pm Jan 20, 2014 5:03pm
NZD/USD - Partial Exit

A great example of a demand area being hit and reacting.
As a result I halved my position and stop is now as BE.
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