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Let's Trade Options

  • #2,501
  • Edited 4:43pm Jan 14, 2014 4:32pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
oops 5 Feb TWITTER EARNINGS DATE, FIRST ONE?
yep 2/5 best I know

..widely expected to tank at earnings, be worth a spread play 4 sure....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,502
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:42pm Jan 14, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Bought some UNG gas contracts for a quick scalp Fridays expiration. long $21.50 UNG calls for 27c or $27 per contract. If it doubless or better I will close out early. UNG is at $21.22 right now United States Natural Gas (UNG) -NYSEArca 21.22 {image} 0.27(1.29%) 20:05 - Nasdaq Real Time Price UNG Jan 2014 21.500 call (UNG140118C00021500) -OPR 0.27 {image} 0.04(17.39%) 19:36
spreading cheap options right before the storage numbers come out can pay (injection numbers out 0730 or thereabouts Thursdays usually)...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,503
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:42pm Jan 14, 2014 7:42pm
lol
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,504
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:39pm Jan 14, 2014 9:39pm
piggy piggy....

"Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA ) shares were flying higher once again, finishing up 16% after the electric car-maker bumped up its fourth quarter guidance by 20%, saying it now believes it sold and delivered nearly 6,900 cars last quarter. Management said that the two key drivers of demand were its "superlative safety record" and "great performance under cold weather conditions." Notably, these two points have been sore spots for the company and founder Elon Musk, as critics have harped on recent vehicle fires and shaky battery performance in cold weather. Musk has consistently dismissed those attacks repeatedly, and the stock is still close to its all-time high. Customers seem to agree with him as well as sales continue to beat expectations, but the stock is dearly priced at a forward P/E of 108."
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,505
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:55pm Jan 14, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting The Fool
earnings....also of interest week of 1/20: V: 1/21 EBAY: 1/22 NFLX: 1/22 MSFT: 1/23 CAT:
Also AMD 1/21, AAPL 1/23, GOOG 1/30
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,506
  • Edited 11:21pm Jan 14, 2014 10:10pm | Edited 11:21pm
UUUHHH...OK. I see no reason why a taco restaurant can't become a $20 billion company. With around 1,500 restaurants and a market cap of ~$16.4 billion, that's only $11 million per establishment. Earnings out Jan 30.

Check out the bid/ask spread on the Feb 7 far otm puts/calls...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chipotle_Mexican_Grill
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,507
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:29am Jan 15, 2014 8:29am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Longed more $55 puts on TWTR FOR 65 PUTS Friday expiration for 65 c or $65 per contract. these are in addition to some I purchased at the close of last week for a higher price TWTR Jan 2014 55.000 put (TWTR140118P00055000) -OPR 0.65 {image} 0.65(50.00%) 15:03 twitter is at $58.70 or so Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) -NYSE 58.70 {image} 1.70(2.98%) 15:24 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
closed at 20c or $20 per contract. A loss of 45c or $45 per contract
  • #2,508
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:48am Jan 15, 2014 8:48am
NFLX continues sliding, $338 --> $319 today. I wanted to see a bounce here at $320 level, we'll see.

I have Jan 31 $305 short puts against Feb 22 $295 long puts, 1:1. Earnings 1/22. The $305 puts are worth about $1 more than the $295, a gap that will narrow as time goes by. I knew putting $305 at 1/31 post-earnings would be a gamble...for now just hanging on....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,509
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:56am Jan 15, 2014 8:56am
Quoting The Fool
NFLX continues sliding, $338 --> $319 today. I wanted to see a bounce here at $320 level, we'll see. I have Jan 31 $305 short puts against Feb 22 $295 long puts, 1:1. Earnings 1/22. The $305 puts are worth about $1 more than the $295, a gap that will narrow as time goes by. I knew putting $305 at 1/31 post-earnings would be a gamble...for now just hanging on....

SLB earnings out on Friday, I'm anticipating a good move with this as benanke has a speech the night before any mention of accelerated taper may send market wild on friday
  • #2,510
  • Jan 15, 2014 9:35am Jan 15, 2014 9:35am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} SLB earnings out on Friday, I'm anticipating a good move with this as benanke has a speech the night before any mention of accelerated taper may send market wild on friday
I think Bernanke's voice is much weaker now as he rides off into the sunset. But we may get some fireworks at the month-end FOMC.

TWTR pushed above $60 today and I shorted $75 2/7 calls for $1.95. TWTR may push up further, even >$65, but I will be surprised if it doesn't drop on earnings. I could be wrong, though, and there's now about 12% of the float short.

Anyway, I'm spread at $75, long 2/22 calls at $5.45, short 2/7 calls at $1.95, net debit $3.50....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,511
  • Jan 15, 2014 9:39am Jan 15, 2014 9:39am
Hi all,

Anyone on this forum trading naked shorts/strangles on Futures Options on indexes or currencies?
  • #2,512
  • Jan 15, 2014 9:42am Jan 15, 2014 9:42am
Quoting njr
Hi all, Anyone on this forum trading naked shorts/strangles on Futures Options on indexes or currencies?
pipple was on crude & beans & natgas, but he's not posting currently. Some others also may be trading futures/fut options but most of us are in stock options...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,513
  • Jan 15, 2014 10:27am Jan 15, 2014 10:27am
Thanks The Fool. I'm not really into stocks or commodities but I'll keep looking around for a relevant forum....All the best

Quoting The Fool
{quote} pipple was on crude & beans & natgas, but he's not posting currently. Some others also may be trading futures/fut options but most of us are in stock options...
  • #2,514
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:56pm Jan 15, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting njr
Hi all, Anyone on this forum trading naked shorts/strangles on Futures Options on indexes or currencies?
I used to do that but in the last few weeks I've changed my style so that I'm largely hedged. I will still do it but only where I'm happy with the risk.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,515
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:06pm Jan 15, 2014 6:06pm
Quoting The Fool
NFLX continues sliding, $338 --> $319 today. I wanted to see a bounce here at $320 level, we'll see. I have Jan 31 $305 short puts against Feb 22 $295 long puts, 1:1. Earnings 1/22. The $305 puts are worth about $1 more than the $295, a gap that will narrow as time goes by. I knew putting $305 at 1/31 post-earnings would be a gamble...for now just hanging on....
So NFLX did what it was supposed to do and bounced $320 to $330. I'm a little nervous about holding through earnings but it'll probably pop long and I'll be OK.

I'm in no earnings scalp positions yet & may not go at all on the financials or UNH, etc, but instead concentrate on tech stocks which report next week & what I have been tuned into last few weeks anyway...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,516
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:10pm Jan 15, 2014 7:10pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I used to do that but in the last few weeks I've changed my style so that I'm largely hedged. I will still do it but only where I'm happy with the risk.
Thanks Boy Wonder. Do you know of any other sites where there are options sellers using this same strategy?
  • #2,517
  • Jan 15, 2014 11:28pm Jan 15, 2014 11:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm in no earnings scalp positions yet & may not go at all on the financials or UNH, etc, but instead concentrate on tech stocks which report next week & what I have been tuned into last few weeks anyway...
will be watching UNH, announces 0600, I might fade a heavy move either way afterwards
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,518
  • Jan 16, 2014 12:10am Jan 16, 2014 12:10am
Much of my trading capital is sitting in IRA's, not meant to be touched for another 10-15 years or more. When I set the first IRA's up, I didn't know anything about trading & bought a mix of stocks. This was near the last bubble topend and so I like many bought near the top and then lost beaucoup. Over time I got better at stock trading and did much better, but it took years to make back what I had lost. For instance, originally bought BAC for $47 in 2008 or so and held on. Averaged down finally to about $8 last year and sold the last little chunk of it today for $17.20.

But I rarely buy stock anymore. I am on the lookout for 1-2-yr options on things that should grow, though. When I make some money trading shorter term options I will buy 10 or so Jan '16 calls of some of these names:

SAN - I have been thinking there's lots of upside for the bigger eurozone banks. 1/16 SAN $10 calls are ~$0.55. I have a few NBG, but just spare change on that. I wish there were some LEAP's available for IRE...

Cheaper tech or pharma stocks that might have huge upside, like RENN, VRNG, PLUG, etc...

I'd be interested to hear about your longer term trades if you have any....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,519
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:31am Jan 16, 2014 4:31am
Quoting njr
{quote} Thanks Boy Wonder. Do you know of any other sites where there are options sellers using this same strategy?
Aside from the obvious places to look - elitetrader and trade2win - I don't, sorry.
You should be really careful selling naked options. The exploding gamma on short term short options positions can kill ye, I say to ye.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,520
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:38am Jan 16, 2014 4:38am
Quoting The Fool
Much of my trading capital is sitting in IRA's, not meant to be touched for another 10-15 years or more. When I set the first IRA's up, I didn't know anything about trading & bought a mix of stocks. This was near the last bubble topend and so I like many bought near the top and then lost beaucoup. Over time I got better at stock trading and did much better, but it took years to make back what I had lost. For instance, originally bought BAC for $47 in 2008 or so and held on. Averaged down finally to about $8 last year and sold the last little chunk...
I struggle with longer term. I can't deal with the present, let alone the future.
One thing seems clear (to me) though, simply by looking at long-term yield charts: yields are probably going to fall from here, not rise. I think this is due to unassailable forces: the ruthless efficiency penetration of global capitalism, principally.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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