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  • #2,461
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:42am Jan 13, 2014 8:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} looks like you are itm on the strangle with $55 call @ $1.45 & $49 put @ $0.20. Are you gonna let em ride?
yes the plan is too let it ride hence the longer term options purchased
  • #2,462
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:45am Jan 13, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yes the plan is too let it ride hence the longer term options purchased
Good luck mate & have a great week. Some of my fckups are looking better today, TWTR up and YELP down. Gotta hit the commuter trail.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,463
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:54am Jan 13, 2014 8:54am
New longer term options play on RIG based on future earnings and subsequent further decline expected in oil

long May $50 calls and long May $47 puts. prices put in are below total cost around $390 for the pair.

RIG is trading at $48.25 and its earning are at the end of February so plenty of time before and after earnings

Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
-NYSE
48.25 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.28(0.58%) 14:52 - Nasdaq Real Time Price


calls
RIG May 2014 50.000 call (RIG140517C00050000)
-OPR

1.75 0.00(0.00%)
puts
RIG May 2014 47.000 put (RIG140517P00047000)
-OPR
2.15 0.00(0.00%)
  • #2,464
  • Jan 13, 2014 9:07am Jan 13, 2014 9:07am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good luck mate & have a great week. Some of my fckups are looking better today, TWTR up and YELP down. Gotta hit the commuter trail.
sorry mate anyhow TWTR closes under $59 today then I'm adding more long puts to this trade.
  • #2,465
  • Jan 13, 2014 9:31am Jan 13, 2014 9:31am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} sorry mate anyhow TWTR closes under $59 today then I'm adding more long puts to this trade.
Longed more $55 puts on TWTR FOR 65 PUTS Friday expiration for 65 c or $65 per contract. these are in addition to some I purchased at the close of last week for a higher price

TWTR Jan 2014 55.000 put (TWTR140118P00055000)
-OPR
0.65 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.65(50.00%) 15:03


twitter is at $58.70 or so


Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
-NYSE

58.70 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 1.70(2.98%) 15:24 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #2,466
  • Edited 3:01pm Jan 13, 2014 2:00pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good luck mate & have a great week. Some of my fckups are looking better today, TWTR up and YELP down. Gotta hit the commuter trail.
Well, I was just about a week early on YELP puts, it's crashing today. I am in $65 2/22 puts which were severely bled late last week when YELP was @ $82+. Late Fri I bought 1/24 $78 puts @ $1.55 and sold them now for $3.50. Cut my loss on the $65 puts well down...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,467
  • Jan 13, 2014 2:31pm Jan 13, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} JPM announces 0700 Tuesday, position before close on Monday. Seems like all the financials are sitting within 1% of their 52-wk highs....
not gonna touch this, holding out for C and others midweek
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,468
  • Jan 13, 2014 2:34pm Jan 13, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} not gonna touch this, holding out for C and others midweek
look at GS too, i already have position on it since last week, page 117/118
  • #2,469
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:04pm Jan 13, 2014 5:04pm
"Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?"

Trading conservatively, I am finding, has major drawbacks when you hedge a directional position with an opposing position to such an extent that you end up being right in direction but the hedge costs you very high percentage of your profits.

My knackered (and entirely useless) contraro-matic crystal ball says we may have seen the low for this week on ES today.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,470
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:39pm Jan 13, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
My knackered (and entirely useless) contraro-matic crystal ball says we may have seen the low for this week on ES today.
lol, a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying.....what? My suspicion is the banks all report record earnings and the S&P shoots for new highs. One wild card is the late-month FOMC. If they dared take another notch off of QE we might see some down weeks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,471
  • Jan 13, 2014 6:20pm Jan 13, 2014 6:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}My suspicion is the banks all report record earnings and the S&P shoots for new highs. One wild card is the late-month FOMC..
Yep. If not new highs then at least a closing of that gap up there somewhere around 1850 (I'm too lazy to check right now...plus it's too far away to mean anything).

Either way, the "old" me would've closed his short U/L here (ES futs) to "book profits" on that side of the trade, and with scant consideration for risk left the now-naked short puts hanging in the wind, but the new me says, foook that for a game of soldiers, it's too dangerous. Too many sleepless nights etc. So I'm probably doomed to hold these shorts and sell puts against them until by happy happenstance I end up shorting puts at strikes that are quite close to the money at expiry, leaving me netted out for a zero position to start the whole game again.

Still, as Brucie (you won't know who that is ) says, "Good game! Good game!"
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,472
  • Jan 13, 2014 7:11pm Jan 13, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} So I'm probably doomed to hold these shorts and sell puts against them until by happy happenstance I end up shorting puts at strikes that are quite close to the money at expiry, leaving me netted out for a zero position to start the whole game again. Still, as Brucie (you won't know who that is ) says, "Good game! Good game!"
Brucie?, no, afraid not - but if all you ever do is break even you're doing better than most traders. As if that's any consolation....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,473
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:24am Jan 14, 2014 9:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Brucie?, no, afraid not - but if all you ever do is break even you're doing better than most traders. As if that's any consolation....
I do much better than break even

Looks tentatively like those lows on SPX for the week may be in, albeit we could see a gap close later today or tomorrow. Currently more bullish than bearish here.

TWTR looks like it may be consolidating here for a push higher. You might squeeze some more out of those long calls. At the moment a move above Monday's highs is good for the bulls; a move below Thursday's lows is good for the bears.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,474
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:59am Jan 14, 2014 9:59am
Worth a read (perhaps):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1944...s-action-today

FWIW (not much, probably) GS is forecasting only 1900 on the SPX by the end of 2014, as per the above article.

"One of our followers commented that he thought the January expiration is bearish according to Stock Traders’ Almanac. So we asked our good friend Jeffrey Hirsch, who responded: “Yes, lately it is weak…However, in the past 15 years (1999-2013), the S&P 500’s performance has taken a turn for the worse with expiration day falling nine times with an average loss of .45% and the full-week declining 11 times with an average loss of 1.27%. Given this year’s lackluster start, the S&P’s recent poor options expiration week track record could easily remain intact."

So we could see a mid-week bump with an end-of-week thump.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,475
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:03am Jan 14, 2014 10:03am
Has anybody looked at AMZN recently? It's put on about 25% since I was looking at it as a potential bear case only a couple of months or so ago.
Currently 393; its 200-week MA is at 222! The 200DMA is at 312.
Could be some seriously rough seas ahead, more volatility perhaps. I wonder what the VIX futures are priced at. Can't be bothered to check though.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,476
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:15am Jan 14, 2014 10:15am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} TWTR looks like it may be consolidating here for a push higher. You might squeeze some more out of those long calls. At the moment a move above Monday's highs is good for the bulls; a move below Thursday's lows is good for the bears.
Yup I was looking for a push back above $60 before selling some otm calls....could be tough sledding.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,477
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:19am Jan 14, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Has anybody looked at AMZN recently? It's put on about 25% since I was looking at it as a potential bear case only a couple of months or so ago. Currently 393; its 200-week MA is at 222! The 200DMA is at 312. Could be some seriously rough seas ahead, more volatility perhaps. I wonder what the VIX futures are priced at. Can't be bothered to check though.
I wouldn't want to be short AMZN. I pretty much keep them in the green by myself. I got a new Kindle for Xmas. Downloaded "Option Gamma Trading" by Gleadall last night and tried to read it. Tough sledding there, too...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,478
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:24am Jan 14, 2014 10:24am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Has anybody looked at AMZN recently? It's put on about 25% since I was looking at it as a potential bear case only a couple of months or so ago. Currently 393; its 200-week MA is at 222! The 200DMA is at 312. Could be some seriously rough seas ahead, more volatility perhaps. I wonder what the VIX futures are priced at. Can't be bothered to check though.
I've been keeping an eye on AMZN its chart is set up for a large move, its earning are at the end of the month. IV is in the middle indicating good volatility and there is a gap at $312 to fill, but this is earnings so i may just strangle it later next week once the financials are done with and I know what my positions look like
  • #2,479
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:32am Jan 14, 2014 10:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I wouldn't want to be short AMZN. I pretty much keep them in the green by myself. I got a new Kindle for Xmas. Downloaded "Option Gamma Trading" by Gleadall last night and tried to read it. Tough sledding there, too...
Yeah it's a helluva stock. You're right, it's best to stay away from such monsters.

Re your reading...you're quite the options geek aren't you I have lots of books that I've read about 5 pages from. I'm just far too lazy. I really should make more effort.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #2,480
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:34am Jan 14, 2014 10:34am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I've been keeping an eye on AMZN its chart is set up for a large move, its earning are at the end of the month. IV is in the middle indicating good volatility and there is a gap at $312 to fill, but this is earnings so i may just strangle it later next week once the financials are done with and I know what my positions look like
Expensive stock though. Gotta be careful.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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