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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,641
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:08pm Jan 14, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Monday was U/J's 100 pip drop (104-->103), but it was on a Japanese bank holiday so the Nikkei Index was closed. Upon returning Tuesday the Index fell hard to catch up with Yen strength the day before So we're like a day off in that aspect.. UsdJpy held up well today, Japanese stocks hold up tomorow as well, is my guess. We'll see!
Nikkei set to open 1%+. Today's Yen weakness cited as a catalyst for the stock index's rebound.
  • #41,642
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:44pm Jan 14, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting Ulterior
holy moly, received a strong buy signal, tight SL
Hmm, kinda dangerous. Could be about 25-30 pips of upside here before it turns again.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #41,643
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:45pm Jan 14, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hmm, kinda dangerous. Could be about 25-30 pips of upside here before it turns again.
invalidated by breakout lower... seemed a nice place, but it turned out ugly
  • #41,644
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:15pm Jan 14, 2014 7:15pm
glad I didnt close my long, thought there will be a fake-out-play - nice breakout !
  • #41,645
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:49pm Jan 14, 2014 7:49pm
seems like i went short too fast =(, lookin for 105?
  • #41,646
  • Jan 14, 2014 8:21pm Jan 14, 2014 8:21pm
BOOM!
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  • #41,647
  • Jan 14, 2014 8:27pm Jan 14, 2014 8:27pm
the YEN is the only currency that is trading like a true safe haven currency at this time. As the stock indices around the world rebound from recent pullbacks, the YEN will continue to depreciate, not to say the BOJ printing boat loads of money doesn't also attribute to that. Higher we go...
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #41,648
  • Jan 14, 2014 8:37pm Jan 14, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting OMGtrader
the YEN is the only currency that is trading like a true safe haven currency at this time. As the stock indices around the world rebound from recent pullbacks, the YEN will continue to depreciate, not to say the BOJ printing boat loads of money doesn't also attribute to that. Higher we go...
Right on
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  • #41,649
  • Jan 14, 2014 8:38pm Jan 14, 2014 8:38pm
closed my long, today my attention will mostly be USD/CHF as I see it has a huge potential to break out higher
  • #41,650
  • Jan 14, 2014 8:42pm Jan 14, 2014 8:42pm
Bbbbllllliiiiingg! The Weekly Pivot. It's what's for dinner.
With a nice side of 10 DMA...

Expect lots of chop in the European session with an excellent scalping opportunity for those nimble enough...or those who don't need sleep. :/

Watch the price action here. If the FTSE rockets and the UJ just sits there, it may mean that the gas is running out of the move higher altogether and could be the signal for a super-short position that could take the pair back to 99 (and beyond?).

On the other hand, if the pair responds to moves higher in DAX and SPX, then the sky's the limit. This is the crux of the matter right here; the ominous fork in the road. The next twelve hours tell us everything we need to know about the coming three months.

Best of luck to everyone.
  • #41,651
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:39pm Jan 14, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting Orly
This is the crux of the matter right here; the ominous fork in the road. The next twelve hours tell us everything we need to know about the coming three months. Best of luck to everyone.
I'll tell you everything you need to know about the next three months...

(errr, at least, this is my opinion and my opinion ONLY)

Forget what you said. Here's what you need to know. USD/JPY is going higher. Shorts, scratch the 99 level... because it just ain't gonna happen.
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  • #41,652
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:41pm Jan 14, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting michaelv
I'm still a new trader and I try to read Price action in a very simple way. I'm looking at my 4 hour chart and the price is bouncing right on a zone that was previously support. Could this become a new resistance? What are your thought on going short if the candle (4h) close bearish? I would take profit around 103.050 and have a pretty tight stop loss (3-4 pips after the high wick of the candle).
For JPY technical is not enough when fundamental is the drive. Follow the news, eco data, policy statement and indices movement.

And the best indicator is watching other XXX/JPY, XXX/USD
  • #41,653
  • Edited 10:37pm Jan 14, 2014 9:55pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting michaelv
I'm still a new trader and I try to read Price action in a very simple way. I'm looking at my 4 hour chart and the price is bouncing right on a zone that was previously support. Could this become a new resistance? What are your thought on going short if the candle (4h) close bearish? I would take profit around 103.050 and have a pretty tight stop loss (3-4 pips after the high wick of the candle).
Here's my thoughts:

- You do not necessarily have to follow the "fundamentals". A simple chart is enough (or should I say, charts)... IF you know how to interpret it/them.

- 4 Hour chart is a very good "guide" to a trade (in fact, for MOST traders the 4H chart represents the "glue" or bread and butter of their trading), but it is by no means absolute and discretion must always be taken into consideration.

- I would never base such an important decision as "Should I go short?" or "What's a good price" on something as simplistic (over-simplistic) as where the candle closes.

- With that said, you must always take the "context" into consideration and by that I mean that the history is important too, not just the outcome itself, because the history is what represents the context. If the history, ie: last "x" number of bars is bullish, but the last bar -- candle[0] -- is bearish, it might just represent a good entry entry into a long trade as opposed to an entry into a short trade and that is why the context is important and must be taken into consideration at all times. This is also why patterns work so well.

- It's not about predicting the future, but rather giving a very educated "guess" about the future.

- ONE MORE THOUGHT: DO NOT GIVE UP ON YOUR STUDIES OF PRICE ACTION. Focusing on PA is the single-best thing you can do to accelerate your trading... because no indicators, as a comparison, come close to price action. I'm not saying that indicators are useless because I sure wouldn't trade without them, but they just don't compare to what you could learn by studying price action.

PS: To answer your question, it really depends on your time frame/perspective, but generally speaking, I would not want to be short U/J. I am "permanently" bullish on Geppy (yes, G/J) for as long as time and I am consequently very bullish on U/J as a derivative of that (but technically, I know, it should be the other way around). Again, all this depends on your perspective. But if you asked me, my bias would be to the upside and that is not going to change anytime soon.

I'm actually a daytrader though, and I have refrained from giving my intra-day analysis, since I know that most of you here at FF are not daytraders but longer-term than that, so as far as direction I am speaking mostly towards the swing traders or greater, without regards to the proper entry.
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  • #41,654
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:10pm Jan 14, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting Ken A
For JPY technical is not enough when fundamental is the drive.
Btw, I don't know if you noticed from my post above, but I strongly disagree with this statement... Technicals are just as good, if not better, at predicting the order flow than the fundamentals. The difference is that the technicals never lie.
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  • #41,655
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:49pm Jan 14, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting Ken A
Hey if that works for you, great. I am not a scalper - this Daily chart will explain my floating U/J positions and why I need to watch those things mentioned earlier. U/J Daily {image}
Like math, there's more than one way of getting to the right answer...

And in the end, it doesn't matter how you got there, but just that you were right.

Not going to get into that here... but...

... Those are some NICE trades!!! I wish I had the patience to hold that long, but I just don't!
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  • #41,656
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:51pm Jan 14, 2014 10:51pm
candles dont lie neither do levels
  • #41,657
  • Edited Jan 15, 2014 1:25am Jan 14, 2014 10:56pm | Edited Jan 15, 2014 1:25am
Quoting Raypower
candles dont lie neither do levels
Technically, you are correct, but this is a situation where the "context" (see posts above) is very, very important.

In situations like this, it's not the absolute values that matter, but rather how the price actions responds at or near those absolute values.
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  • #41,658
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:57pm Jan 14, 2014 10:57pm
Trading is not about punching keyboard and making great posts with theories and too many words in internet forums.

If you really want to challenge yourself, try maintain a position for 500 - 1,000 pips.

It's not only about amount of money $/pip.
  • #41,659
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:04pm Jan 14, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Technically, you are correct, but this is a situation where the "context" (see post above) is very, very important. In situations like this, it's not the absolute values that matter, but rather how the price actions responds at or near those absolute values.

i know absolutely nothing abt the fundamentals how do i get a heads start to me candlestick and levels determine my bias
  • #41,660
  • Edited 11:21pm Jan 14, 2014 11:07pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting Ken A
Trading is not about punching keyboard and making great posts in the forums. If you really want to challenge yourself, try maintain a position for 500 - 1,000 pips. It's not only about amount of money $/pip.
Hah! I know man. And I'm sorry for all my posts bc I am not here just to make myself look good and make "great posts in the forum", but rather I actually am trying to contribute something, and since I am here... well, why the hell shouldn't I try to be useful?!

Trust me, I know that the words "posts", "forum", and "trading" have nothing in common. But I did mention yesterday that the reason I am here is because I was a contributing member to Geppy's Geppy thread and I have recently decided to trade USD/JPY exclusively (as of yesterday), and well, that is why I am here.

Whether or not my posts are actually useful... I still try.

And no offense, because there is no way you could know this, but I have already challenged myself enough over the years. I am a daytrader by nature, so 500 to 1,000 pip positions do not interest me since I figure if you predicted all the swing highs to swing lows within that sequence of the trend, you could pull a lot more than 500 to 1,000 pips out of the very same move. I dunno if that makes sense but basically what I mean is that if you are a good daytrader and skilled enough in predicting the moves (high/lows), then you could make a lot more as a daytrader than as a swing trader or investor.

And so I could counter your argument... I challenge myself every day. Because my goal is to predict each swing high/low to the pip and, as you can imagine, it's a pretty difficult thing to do... but still not impossible. Rather than saying U/J will go up 500 pips, try predicting the actual wave sequence.... ie: up 50 pips, down 13, up 60, down 20, up 50, down 5, up 75, down 25, or whatever... that is all hypothetical of course but I believe it demonstrates my point that it is much more difficult to predict the actual sequence of waves.

Additionally, I am trying to develop the Holy Grail EA (no, that is not a joke!) and I think that is enough of a challenge for now.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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