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How banks push price against you?

  • #61
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:21am Jan 14, 2014 12:21am
Quoting FerruFx
Stop looking at what others are doing (no matter how big they are) and concentrate on your own trading. That's entirely the trader's fault if he is losing money. Not the broker fault, not the bank fault, ...
This is the only response you should need.

Well said, FerruFX.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #62
  • Edited 1:05am Jan 14, 2014 12:44am | Edited 1:05am
Quoting Yuri57
Call me nuts but this is what really happens: FX dealers have ALL your information, regarding average position size, price entry and SL levels. This information is given to the liquidity providers (Deutsche Bank, JPM and so on) and they can easily push the price until you all get stopped out. If you have traded FX for some years I don't think this information is too surprising for you. Price goes in the direction where it can cause maximal pain. (Let me add, this is not true for all the markets for eg. bond market but FX because here are the most...
This is a typical rant from someone who has not made any money in this market but massively loves to make a lot of money from this market, with one problem, not putting in the effort that needs to. and.. it's a typical rant from someone who still is not making any money from this market but still loves to make a lot of money from this market but still is not putting in the effort.
so results for such poor souls concludes in blaming, nagging, bitching and probably hating and at the end winds-up in ff by opening a thread to vent off as a cover up know it all like he is directly in contact with f-ing jpmorgan etc,.. lol.

I don't normally make such posts but I just had to on this one because it's way off the mark in so many levels.
It's only logical to understand that when banks look at order flows of retail or the "inside info" more often than not they see nothing but a even split. There is just enough of both sides, sl tp new buy sell orders at whatever level.
The one real advantage banks possess is their size and they all are also in their own level of battles.. one may pushes billions to one side and other could equally or more to match for other side.
so what should small fish do.. since you may not be able to size up to their level instead you risk according to your size to get rich not so very quick but surely and safely in time and along the way not ever blaming every other thing out there but yourself.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
  • #63
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:59am Jan 14, 2014 12:59am
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} This is a typical rant from someone who has not made any money in this market but massively loves to make a lot of money from this market, with one problem, not putting in the effort that needs to. and.. it's typical rant from someone who still is not making any money from this market but still loves to make a lot of money from this market but still is not putting in the effort. so results for such poor souls concludes in blaming, nagging, bitching and probably hating and at the end winds-up in ff by opening a thread to vent off as a cover...
Exactly!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #64
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:17am Jan 14, 2014 1:17am
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} No problem. So far it seems many people are not even aware of these practices (I'm not surprised) and some who do, still don't know too much. I will wait some more until someone with more information pops-up in this thread.
Yes, banks manipulate price. At least some very important people think they do.

http://forexmagnates.com/federal-res...-manipulation/

That said, if they take money from you it is your fault, as others have said.

Why?

Because you have not yet devised a strategy to mitigate this reality. You know it goes on, so how do you protect against it?

Here is a hint, the BOJ has twice tried to manipulate the Yen, but guess what? The FX market is just too large for even a Central Bank to play shenanigans for very long.

How have you adapted?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #65
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:24am Jan 14, 2014 1:24am
I think what the Yuri is getting at though is why his "technically good stops" are being hit just above previous highs or just below previous lows. Even following the trend you will have large counter trend moves that will take his "technically good stops".

Thousands of traders will naturally have the same stops from looking at the same charts. Its not stop hunting its natural place for the market to go before returning to trend based on the current story.

Brevan takes out bank trades all the time for fun because they are big enough. Yuri just needs to figure out why he is being sucked into taking trades when he does. Most new traders are trading perfectly wrong losing at 80% trades it actually quite amazing how well they pick losing trades.

I feel sorry for him although i am new here.... maybe i am too nice for a forum like this
  • #66
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:26am Jan 14, 2014 1:26am
Quoting TradeAlerter
I think what the Yuri is getting at though is why his "technically good stops" are being hit just above previous highs or just below previous lows. Even following the trend you will have large counter trend moves that will take his "technically good stops". Thousands of traders will naturally have the same stops from looking at the same charts. Its not stop hunting its natural place for the market to go before returning to trend based on the current story. Brevan takes out bank trades all the time for fun because they are big enough. Yuri just needs...
It is not Yuri's chart analysis, it is risk/reward profile. A single trade should have little to no impact on your bottom line.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #67
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:42am Jan 14, 2014 1:42am
Quoting TradeAlerter
I think what the Yuri is getting at though is why his "technically good stops" are being hit just above previous highs or just below previous lows. Even following the trend you will have large counter trend moves that will take his "technically good stops". Thousands of traders will naturally have the same stops from looking at the same charts. Its not stop hunting its natural place for the market to go before returning to trend based on the current story.
I put stops exactly like that - once again, may others do. I bet we create some sort of
Quoting TradeAlerter
grouping of stops at key levels
Still, most of the the times they don't get hit...

Why?

Don't care really! Maybe alien invasion fails over and over - hell knows, that's just how it is...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #68
  • Jan 14, 2014 2:22am Jan 14, 2014 2:22am
Quoting TradeAlerter
I think what the Yuri is getting at though is why his "technically good stops" are being hit just above previous highs or just below previous lows. Even following the trend you will have large counter trend moves that will take his "technically good stops". Thousands of traders will naturally have the same stops from looking at the same charts. Its not stop hunting its natural place for the market to go before returning to trend based on the current story. Brevan takes out bank trades all the time for fun because they are big enough. Yuri just needs...
Because - big money "knows" where these "sweet technical stops" are - and they know because 90% of all traders use an average of 10 indicators. Banks do not need to "look into your positions" - they just need to devise a strategy where the herd (smaller banks, corps, funds, brokers, retailers, etc...) is going.

The original post is not the first that complains its SL orders are hit everytime and then price moves in his favor - this is the reason I strongly recoment trash-away all indicators, use wider SL with smaller risk and trade with long-term horizon (10-20 weeks).
  • #69
  • Jan 14, 2014 2:42am Jan 14, 2014 2:42am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Because - big money "knows" where these "sweet technical stops" are - and they know because 90% of all traders use an average of 10 indicators. Banks do not need to "look into your positions" - they just need to devise a strategy where the herd (smaller banks, corps, funds, brokers, retailers, etc...) is going. The original post is not the first that complains its SL orders are hit everytime and then price moves in his favor - this is the reason I strongly recoment trash-away all indicators, use wider SL with smaller risk and trade with...
You really sound not much better than that yuri...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #70
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:07am Jan 14, 2014 3:07am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} You really sound not much better than that yuri...
Hey, don't get me wrong! :-) I'm not naggin' - just give my version of an explanation. Never complained my S/L orders being "hunted" :-).
  • #71
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:32am Jan 14, 2014 3:32am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Hey, don't get me wrong! :-) I'm not naggin' - just give my version of an explanation. Never complained my S/L orders being "hunted" :-).
It's no about nagging...

It's about overgeneralizing:
Quoting michaelpelly
90% of all traders use an average of 10 indicators
And somewhat about same % lose as well... Don't see how that affects me anyway!
Quoting michaelpelly
Banks just need to devise a strategy where the herd (smaller banks, corps, funds, brokers, retailers, etc...) is going.
No, they don't. As they would already be implementing it had it been in their plans. Even in they do - doesn't affect me either...
Quoting michaelpelly
I strongly recoment trash-away all indicators, use wider SL with smaller risk and trade with long-term horizon (10-20 weeks).
This doesn't make much sense as it's just how you do it - I do the exact opposite: indies, small SL, relatively high risk - up to 5% per trade, LTF: M1/M5. And I hope you don't think I'm the only one or that we all lose?... Not that your approach is screwed - it's just YOURS. One doesn't necessarily have to do the same in order to be successful - he's gotta figure out his own way - not just catch a 'strong recoment' lol
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #72
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:54am Jan 14, 2014 3:54am
How banks push price against you?
geeeez!! they even do not know that I exist!
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #73
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:08am Jan 14, 2014 6:08am
Well my broker says that the stop loss levels don't get sent to the liquidity providers. The reality is, stop loss hunting can be estimated by looking on the chart and estimating where people are likely putting their stop losses (or places where people are likely to bail from their positions). Places like Oanda have data on where people's entries are clustered and it isn't that hard to deduce where the stop losses are from there.

Also, stop loss hunters can only do their thing at certain times. For instance, when the fundamental traders have control, the stop loss hunters can't push price back until the fundamental trader's get news that suggest that they need to wait and see. Then the 'current' subsides and the stop loss hunters can push price elsewhere. But that only occurs if there isn't a strong technical trader signal that attracts a lot of attention that the stop loss hunters can't counter.

The market moves in cycles. There are times when the fundamental traders rule, when the technical traders rule and when the predatory traders rule.
  • #74
  • Edited 3:00pm Jan 14, 2014 2:47pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting Carlsberg
unfortunately it means we need bigger stops, but that's just how it is why do we think 95% of traders loose, because we are all morons and cant work out if there's an uptrend or downtrend or because of the market makers tricks ?
Think through this logically.

(1) If you know where the stops are likely to be placed...

(2) and you know those areas are going to be hunted...

then continuing to place your market position in the same spots, only with wider stops, means you'll have more winners (theoretically), but all of your losing trades are going to be bigger.

So let's try this again.

(1) If you know where the stops are likely to be placed...

(2) and you know those areas are going to be hunted...

then instead of putting on the position early and then letting it get taken out by a stop loss, or putting the position on early with a very wide stop loss, why don't you put on positions at areas where those stops are, and have your stop loss moved outside of the zone where you think everyone else's stop losses are being hit (but not actually making your stop loss any wider than normal)?

Of course in the real world it's not nearly this simple, mainly because the action that we're theorizing is happening isn't actually happening in the sense it's being described in.

There are a number of well documented, classic technical patterns in which ranges expand, simply putting your stop loss outside the most recent swing high/low is asking to get constantly taken out of your position while possibly still being "correct" (I put that in italics because the notion that you are correct because you were right about the direction but wrong about the time is simply laughable in the markets) about where the market was moving.

In the expanding triangle example, the sheep (i.e. traders here) are placing stops for their shorts above 1, stops for their longs below 2, stops for their new shorts above 3, and stops for their new longs below 4, and every single one of them is going to be raked, despite having the potential for profit on the ensuing leg.

Without knowing what the market is doing (trending or ranging), it's going to be difficult to trade appropriately. Shorts at 1 are premature, and by the time price retraces to it's initial high (near 3), you should know that either the market is still trending upwards, or is in some corrective motion. By the time price retraces to the longs at 2 (near 4), you should know the market is probably not trending upwards, and could either be correcting, or starting a new downtrend. By the time price retraces to the shorts at position 3 (near 5), we already know the market is in some corrective form where the range is expanding (because of swing high at 3 is higher than the swing high at 1, swing low at 4 is lower than the swing low at 2). As 5 moves beyond the highs at 3, it would be wise to look for shorts assuming there's no impetus behind the new highs. Hindsight is 50/50 obviously, but a constantly evolving analysis may help you avoid premature trades, which if you're "correct" about the market direction but not timing, is exactly your problem.
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  • #75
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:29pm Jan 14, 2014 4:29pm
I often have a sell order at 3 and a buy order at 4, knowing where the monkeys keep their nuts makes for easy pickings...
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  • #76
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:46pm Jan 14, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting 60minuteman
nice new place to pile up the bullshit and absurd assumptions thanks
Amen
Shampoo for my real friends
  • #77
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:47pm Jan 14, 2014 4:47pm
Hard to imagine banks would take a risk in pushing against retailers.

Darkstar just posted a vid on utube abt Brokers (not banks, like they care anyways..) hunting stops.
/thread

Inserted Video
  • #78
  • Jan 14, 2014 5:12pm Jan 14, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting GDR3k
I often have a sell order at 3 and a buy order at 4, knowing where the monkeys keep their nuts makes for easy pickings... {image}
Yup, and expansionary ranges are constantly occurring and provide for multiple profit opportunities, as opposed to contracting ranges which are also constantly occurring, but are shrinking the profit opportunity with each subsequent wave (and also imo show much more uncertainty and lead to far more 'false breakouts').

I think expanding ranges are anathema to most traders. Just a guess, but I don't think the brain likes expansionary patterns as much as it likes contracting or parallel patterns.
  • #79
  • Jan 14, 2014 5:14pm Jan 14, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting Yuri57
Call me nuts but this is what really happens: FX dealers have ALL your information, regarding average position size, price entry and SL levels. This information is given to the liquidity providers (Deutsche Bank, JPM and so on) and they can easily push the price until you all get stopped out. If you have traded FX for some years I don't think this information is too surprising for you. Price goes in the direction where it can cause maximal pain. (Let me add, this is not true for all the markets for eg. bond market but FX because here are the most...

Unfortunately for Bank CEO's , Life is NOT that easy ..lol ..Otherwise , they would all be Billionaires/Trillionaires ..
Here's Batur Asmazoglu explaining the reasons why ..
He traded For Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank ..

Enjoy ..

Inserted Video
  • #80
  • Jan 14, 2014 5:19pm Jan 14, 2014 5:19pm
Quoting taomql4
{quote} Unfortunately for Bank CEO's , Life is NOT that easy ..lol ..Otherwise , they would all be Billionaires/Trillionaires .. Here's Batur Asmazoglu explaining the reasons why .. He traded For Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank .. Enjoy .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyFVOFbhFws
Cool vid. Mentions FF!
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