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How banks push price against you?

  • #41
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:17am Jan 12, 2014 8:17am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} worked on a G10 spot FX desk as well as EM options. re: bond markets, consider the Fed who own 30% of 10Y equivs, and willing to continue buying. That is manipulation of rates. re: long term trading, when there were prop desks they could take levered positions for the long term in order for capital gains where as they aren't allowed to do that as much anymore. The most they can do is profit by being a market maker. The treasury section of a bank can hold reserves in various currencies to profit, but that isn't substantial.

Did you see all the banks operations in the markets? How do you know that there is no manipulation if you haven't seen everything?

As far as I know the FED has a random algo to buy treasuries, correct me if I'm wrong.

You don't need leverage if you manage billions, you will still move the market.

Anyone read the interview with Bill Lipschutz in New Market Wizards?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #42
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:29am Jan 12, 2014 8:29am
Quoting techfan1128
They cant see all your information and know exactly where YOUR stop is,
Assuming you use leverage and some kind of money management your stop must be in a 100 pip-range. More likely even a lot closer.

Since they don't have leverage they don't have stops near you AT ALL! :-)
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #43
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:30am Jan 12, 2014 8:30am
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} Did you see all the banks operations in the markets? How do you know that there is no manipulation if you haven't seen everything? As far as I know the FED has a random algo to buy treasuries, correct me if I'm wrong. You don't need leverage if you manage billions, you will still move the market. Anyone read the interview with Bill Lipschutz in New Market Wizards?
no of course I did not see everything, but it is clear that they don't hunt retail stops. I don't know why there is such hubris amongst retailers that they believe companies that manage billions care about a few million in orders. come on, think about it!

the fed doesn't havent a random algo. They announce everyday how much they are wanting to buy for specific bonds, they then buy them from a specific list of primary dealers.

and yes, they do have billions to move around, but they may move it around once a month (or even less) so they don't move the market.
  • #44
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:45am Jan 12, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} Forget the excuses this topic is not about that. Please share your experience with such "time windows" if you may. Thanks.
So in other words, you opened the thread to have some great traders to explain to you how to read the market ... Right ?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #45
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:47am Jan 12, 2014 8:47am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} So in other words, you opened the thread to have some great traders to explain to you how to read the market ... Right ?
Did you ask this question to find more ground for offensive comments?

If you are not interested in the topic, don't comment.

Thanks.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #46
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:49am Jan 12, 2014 8:49am
There is no need to put whole lifestories here to either defend or attack thoughts of topic starter. Where it all went wrong is the simple fact that traders / retail are all being generalized in here. There is a huge gap between those that lose, and those that win. Get your motivation, do your own research, work towards profits. The kind of thinking you have here will eventually destroy you if you dont change it. More than enough broker/shark theories floating around on the internet already.
  • #47
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:57am Jan 12, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Robertk
There is no need to put whole lifestories here to either defend or attack thoughts of topic starter. Where it all went wrong is the simple fact that traders / retail are all being generalized in here. There is a huge gap between those that lose, and those that win. Get your motivation, do your own research, work towards profits. The kind of thinking you have here will eventually destroy you if you dont change it. More than enough broker/shark theories floating around on the internet already.
This is exactly the goal of this topic. I don't understand how you all don't see that.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #48
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:02am Jan 12, 2014 9:02am
Quoting Yuri57
I don't understand how you all don't see that.
We all see you didn't do it.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #49
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:48am Jan 12, 2014 10:48am
I do believe banks manipulate the FX market (recall the currency fixings manipulation case), but I don't think they use any information provided by market makers. In fact, traders were more concerned since a long time about market makers knowledge of their clients' positions, and now I see many strategies that try to counter-attack their plays.
  • #50
  • Jan 12, 2014 11:19am Jan 12, 2014 11:19am
Yuri57,

If you don't want to get stop hunted, don't use stop losses. Problem solved.
Remember, Red. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things...
  • #51
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:13pm Jan 12, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting Yuri57
{quote} At last we are talking about the manipulation itself. Forget the excuses this topic is not about that. Please share your experience with such "time windows" if you may. Thanks.

Time windows - There are certain times every day where the market does certain things. For instance at 930-945am CST on the ES, NQ, TF, YM, CL, ect... if price Spikes a high or low and then gets quickly rejected. Its most likely going to be a reversal (fake out breakout). There are other times during the day that are typical turning times.

Also, If you pull up a 5 min chart and look at it it over the past couple of weeks, you will see that in many cases, this this tuesday will be very similar and turn at similar times as last tuesday (about 65-70% of the time). This is not a coincidence. Most trades placed in the markets are now all algorithm based, so they do things in a certain way, at a certain time in order to gain the most profitability.

Look at the side by side charts... one day is thursday 1/2 and the other is last thursday 1/9. DO the charts look like they could almost be the same day. Look how price turned very near the same time. The first two turns of the day (these are the ones that will produce the largest moves of the day typically) happened at the exact same time. This is what I mean by market manipulation. It is not freely traded and humans pushing it around by their sentiment. It is algorithm traded designed based on human tendencies. I encourage all of you to go do the same. What every day you are trading, look back a week or two and see what happened on that day the last couple times. You will be amazed at what you discover.
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  • #52
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:36pm Jan 12, 2014 4:36pm
Jeremy's answer is very accurate... in the spot desk I'm at, we seriously don't care about anything < 5m. The thing about banks being informed is half truth... because there are many players whom trade with banks... via hedge funds or retail or professionals traders, which many could be just as informed...if there is a time and opportunity to take advantage of the flow, they will, but most of time... banks just offset risk the most profitable way they can, and their own prop trades are guarded by risk management. This however doesn't mean manipulation doesn't exist...it's hard to manipulate a thick market... much easier to manipulate a penny stock... so in the end it's the battle between titan banks... the amt of $$$ needed to push a major is incredibly difficult without actual market forces working for you already.

FX market will shrink a bit due to regulations/risk on prop desk as mentioned before... not sure how this will play out eventually in regards to spreads/volatilty / atr... they've delayed dodd frank for over 2 years now... it's time to actually implement something...in the U.S. of course... bassel III is already putting a bit of pressure.
  • #53
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:10pm Jan 13, 2014 4:10pm
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} The problem is that most of the "everyone" can't read the price accurately. That's why they reject the fault to the others instead of concentrate of their own trading.
That is such bullshit, I suppose you are one of those few who can read the price and stray away from stop loss hunting, false breakouts etc. I suppose you're smart and "everyone" stupid because the see market manipulation and the fact that FED is investigating "Forex Fixing" means they are part of the stupid "everyone" ?
  • #54
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:16pm Jan 13, 2014 4:16pm
yea sure big banks , rob retailers

i wonder how they made money , Pre retail FX boom ?
  • #55
  • Jan 13, 2014 5:11pm Jan 13, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting spike00spieg
{quote} That is such bullshit, I suppose you are one of those few who can read the price and stray away from stop loss hunting, false breakouts etc. I suppose you're smart and "everyone" stupid because the see market manipulation and the fact that FED is investigating "Forex Fixing" means they are part of the stupid "everyone" ?

If stop-loss hunting (in the sense that you are speaking) is so obvious and happens to so many people, why not build your strategy explicitly around trading it? It's the perfect trade, no? A volatile move pushing price against the larger trend, giving you the opportunity for great value in predictable areas. Every time you want to make a trade, place a line at where you would enter and where you would put your stop-loss, but don't actually trade. Instead, sit on your hands. Then wait for the banks to go on a virtual FX safari and hunt those stops, and only then do you enter a trade in the original direction you wanted (but now at a much better price!)

OR back in the real world, banks do not care about your $100 micro account and you are just placing poorly positioned trades which are constantly being railroaded by the market and you want to blame it on a boogeyman.

(and you obviously have no clue on what "forex fixing" refers to and how it would have literally zero impact on you)
  • #56
  • Jan 13, 2014 10:14pm Jan 13, 2014 10:14pm
Stop-hunting theory adherents still can't get that institutions don't trade against the market. That's your fault if you do! You may as well coincide your SL hit with alien invasion - true reasons won't change from that...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #57
  • Jan 13, 2014 10:15pm Jan 13, 2014 10:15pm
Quoting Mikkk01
Stop-hunting theory adherents still can't get that institutions don't trade against the market. That's your fault if you do
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #58
  • Jan 13, 2014 10:40pm Jan 13, 2014 10:40pm
The market hunts large positions - this is a fact (not a conspiracy)
and don't forget the market is a Ponzi scheme, the money does n't appear out of thin air there must be at some point a looser for every winner, or the Ponzi would collapse

for example if there are 2bill of longs orders for the Euro at 8am, the market makers will pick up the long orders then trade 3 or 4 bill in shorts take out the closest stops and then go in their original overall direction
the Market markers are not morons, its how they make there money and stop hunt for fun

unfortunately it means we need bigger stops, but that's just how it is
why do we think 95% of traders loose, because we are all morons and cant work out if there's an uptrend or downtrend
or because of the market makers tricks ?
  • #59
  • Jan 13, 2014 10:44pm Jan 13, 2014 10:44pm
While they are not stop hunting you personally, many trade ideas and trading styles lead to the grouping of stops at key levels. These may be run before reversing and in this sense the market makers are stop hunting trade Ideas or reversing old trends.

Always use a stop though either mental or hard on your position.

A good introduction to this sort of trading style is from Martin Cole on Youtube what he calls the market maker method. I found it very informative for new retail FX traders.
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I hang out in chatrooms with bank traders and they just humans and think about trades and influenced by new ideas that spread through the market. Some are talking book but most are just looking for the easy trade. We all end up thinking the same way and group think trades without even talking to each other a lot of the time.

I am short NZD/USD right now against the Fundamentals and Technicals for very much a medium contrarian market maker read on the next big move in Kiwi.

Best Regard

Tradealerter
  • #60
  • Jan 13, 2014 11:24pm Jan 13, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting Carlsberg
unfortunately it means we need bigger stops
Why is this?

I don't need bigger stops!

Same will tell you others who are pretty satisfied with their winning strategy and don't care about any sort of hunting...

lol
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
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