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  • #701
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:00pm Jan 9, 2014 5:00pm
AUD/USD - Long Orders
Firstly I acknowledge that we are in a pretty hefty down trend at the moment. However, I think price is hinting at a short/medium term bottom with a bit of a base forming. Of course it could just be absorbing the demand in the market only to break down again, there is always the 'other' case.
However, it has struggled to break the weekly support also we are making a series of HH and HL on the daily chart, albeit not very pronounced. This is all somewhat encouraging for the bulls. Looking at the COT data we are noting a reasonable extreme present stacked in the bulls favour for a rally at 'some stage'.
I am seeing this as an opportunity to get pretty good value and being able to place an ultimate stop (past the lowest recent weekly low) with my entry relatively close to the bottom.
One thing I know is that trading counter trend for the sake of it is a bad thing, but when you have a number of factors to possibly support a reversal you are increasing your chances of receiving a higher reward. Time will tell on this one......
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  • #702
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:22am Jan 10, 2014 5:22am
Quoting mypipbull
AUD/USD - Long Orders Firstly I acknowledge that we are in a pretty hefty down trend at the moment. However, I think price is hinting at a short/medium term bottom with a bit of a base forming. Of course it could just be absorbing the demand in the market only to break down again, there is always the 'other' case. However, it has struggled to break the weekly support also we are making a series of HH and HL on the daily chart, albeit not very pronounced. This is all somewhat encouraging for the bulls. Looking at the COT data we are noting a reasonable...

Hi Mike,
Yeah I agree the Aussie looks oversold but I prefer the look of the EuroAud - I'm more comfortable selling lol.
And I like the divergence - weekly pb still in play

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  • #703
  • Jan 10, 2014 7:32am Jan 10, 2014 7:32am
Trend change?

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  • #704
  • Jan 10, 2014 9:24am Jan 10, 2014 9:24am
Mike, do your COTS reports tell you anything abt coffee?

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  • #705
  • Jan 12, 2014 3:13am Jan 12, 2014 3:13am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi Mike, Yeah I agree the Aussie looks oversold but I prefer the look of the EuroAud - I'm more comfortable selling lol. And I like the divergence - weekly pb still in play {image}
Stu,
Thats a great looking chart for the bears and my bias would be short as well.
I am just trying to stick to the majors and commods for a bit otherwise I get too distracted by the multiple opportunities.
  • #706
  • Jan 12, 2014 3:27am Jan 12, 2014 3:27am
Quoting stewrigh
Mike, do your COTS reports tell you anything abt coffee? {image}
Hard to say. Longer term eventually its a buy. Despite that channel looking very constructive it still has work to do to break the downtrend its been in for the last few years. So by my reckoning COT is flashing a possible sell setup. The net positions have not yet turned so it could go a bit further yet.
It looks pretty oversold......but it has for a year or two now.
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  • #707
  • Jan 12, 2014 4:00am Jan 12, 2014 4:00am
Quoting mypipbull
AUD/USD - Long Orders...... {image} {image}
Long now obviously......good solid close into Friday.
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  • #708
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:44am Jan 12, 2014 9:44am
With the US economy doing so well now shouldn't oil be going up?

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  • #709
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:59pm Jan 12, 2014 5:59pm
USD/CHF - Long Orders

Looks like it could be a breakout test here.
I buying a break of the marked 4H bar with a stop below the demand area.
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  • #710
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:22pm Jan 14, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting mypipbull
USD/CHF - Long Orders Looks like it could be a breakout test here. I buying a break of the marked 4H bar with a stop below the demand area. {image} {image}
After that solid red candle on the 4H I halved my position just in case. Looks like it rebounded a bit and is still just hanging in there. It is still looking a bit weak. Will probably get stopped out on this one.
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  • #711
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:30pm Jan 14, 2014 3:30pm
S&P500 - Long

I am not a believer in the long term of this bullish run but the price action was a gift yesterday.
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  • #712
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:22pm Jan 14, 2014 7:22pm
Three charts I am looking to short (orders in play)
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  • #713
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:34pm Jan 15, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting stewrigh
Mike, do your COTS reports tell you anything abt coffee? {image}

Trend channel looking good

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  • #714
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:42pm Jan 15, 2014 12:42pm
Quoting stewrigh
Trend change? {image}

Time to go short again??

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  • #715
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:47pm Jan 15, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting mypipbull
Three charts I am looking to short (orders in play) {image} {image} {image}

Mike these are all long dollar - I have a real problem buying the dollar and you know my view of gold(I never ever sell EVER) lol.

GL anyway.
  • #716
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:03pm Jan 15, 2014 1:03pm
This is one of the best RR plays I have seen in a very long time.

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  • #717
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:17pm Jan 15, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Time to go short again?? {image}

Hey stu, hope your xmas was cool..

I like EA to the long side ?...only imho



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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #718
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:27pm Jan 15, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} Hey stu, hope your xmas was cool.. I like EA to the long side ?...only imho {image} {image}

Hi J, yeah Xmas was good thanks yours too?

I can see why you are long biased but you would be buying straight into major resistance

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  • #719
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:38pm Jan 15, 2014 1:38pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi J, yeah Xmas was good thanks yours too? I can see why you are long biased but you would be buying straight into major resistance {image}
Xmas was good thanks mate... I agree the Monthly looks prime, just think it might run stops first before downside, re-test 155 ?
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #720
  • Jan 15, 2014 3:02pm Jan 15, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Mike these are all long dollar - I have a real problem buying the dollar and you know my view of gold(I never ever sell EVER) lol. GL anyway.
Hey Stu,
I'm not a fan of the dollar long term either however, there are always of short term opportunities.
Until the USD dies 'proper like' you can only trade what's in front of you.

Its like my Long S&P500 position, I am Bearish but Long. The US indexes are in a dangerous bubble (IMHO probably like yours) but until it pops I am just allowing it to put money in my account.

You and your bias's .....
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