ETMA_The Evolution

I just receive it in my mailbox, you beat me to it, one of the Brightest and most respectful fundamental newsletter out there, and for free, thank you.

Best,
B.R.

One of the many Stations of my quest of the Holy Grail of me.

Seven Things I Would Tell the Younger Me

1) Keep a laser focus on personal evolution. Thought patterns, habits, mental models, productive efficiency -- all need to evolve. Whatever level of importance you instinctively place on this, multiply it by a factor of ten. The more you grow, the more you will discover how much you need to grow to become the champion you were meant to be. This process never stops... and nor would you want it to. Winners evolve -- because winners are made, not born. To the extent someone is a born winner, it means they have a fire inside that can't be put out. That fire is what creates the relentless, burning desire to become great. And it's never too late to stoke that fire, as long as you've got a pilot light. But there is no reason not to start right here, right now. Your capacity for greatness is a function of your passion, resilience, and fierce determination to do whatever it takes. Nothing more, nothing less.

2) Cut away all the bullshit. So much of what distracts us in life is a giant waste of time. Life is not long. Even a hundred years is an eyeblink in the big scheme of things. In terms of personal experience, think quality, not quantity. A trip to Peru to hike Macchu Picchu is worth 10,000 hours of mindless television. An hour of quality time with someone you love is worth a thousand hours of empty fraternizing. Don't fall into the trap of settling for mediocrity, or assuming BS is inevitable just because so many people swim in it. Life is short and you are going to die. Live fully, drink deeply, and raise the roof before you do.

3) Don't expend time or energy on poisonous people. The whiners, complainers and drama queens. The needy greedy who can never be satisfied. The manipulators who can't be trusted and the sadsacks for whom "woe is me" is a constant refrain. The people who bring down everyone around them, or routinely hurt those around them. You wouldn't voluntarily catch a cold out of sympathy; you don't want this sickness either. Emotional poison can be as functionally detrimental as low-grade physical poison. Minimize your exposure to it. Cut it out completely if you can. Make a concerted effort to surround yourself with people who share a constructive outlook and a positive mental attitude.

4) Never, ever, ever underestimate the importance of rest, exercise, and nutrition. Body, mind, and spirit are one unified whole -- you cannot separate them. Mood, creativity, capacity for self-discipline, and capacity for clear-headed rational thought are all body-dependent -- rest, exercise and nutrition rule them all. The body was designed to be a lean, mean, physical exertion machine. Fitness makes a big contribution to happiness. In contrast, low quality fuel, lack of rest, and lack of exercise bring down the spirit and gunk up the mind. Treat your body as a temple. Indulge in the luxury of sleep. Work fewer hours than the "burn the candle at both ends" types, but outperform them by working harder and smarter (which good sleep will enable). Go Paleo (research it) and spend money on high quality proteins, fruits and vegetables. Learn how to run (research Chi Running). Embrace 'good' fats, which don't make you fat at all; avoid excess carbs, chemical fats and processed industrial foods. Treat peak physical performance as the gateway to peak mental performance, because it absolutely is.

5) Push yourself to the limits and beyond. The body, mind and spirit -- when properly maintained, see 4) above -- are capable of much, MUCH more than most realize. Western Worlders live in molly-coddling nanny-state societies. Consumer technology takes the risk and effort out of of day-to-day life, making us soft. Not only that, but the body itself is biologically designed to preserve energy and shy away from exertion extremes that could hypothetically threaten survival. These factors combine to condition timid attitudes when it comes to physical and mental exertion, emotional risk taking, and so on. This is partly why most humans live their whole lives coming nowhere close to true potential. They mistake factory-installed safety constraints for impenetrable barriers. Over time their fear and hesitation hardens into self-fulfilling prophesy. Thomas Edison: "If we did all the things we are capable of, we would literally astound ourselves." Damn right. Recognize that many of the built-in limitations you feel are artificial or needlessly conservative. You can blast through those limits and push harder -- much harder -- once you know how to do so safely and wisely. This takes constant willingness to explore outer limits, relentlessly pushing your comfort zone, observing what works and what doesn't as you incrementally expand. Get into the barrier-breaking habit. Become an intrepid explorer of your own personal frontier.

6) Don't obsess over money. Read "How to Get Rich" by Felix Dennis (one of the best books ever written on the pitfalls and challenges of obtaining wealth). Remember that you only have to get rich once -- and that time, energy, persistence and creativity are your most precious resources. With those four things, you can get all the money you want. You just have to break through (something most people never do). Chasing money for its own sake is the mark of a fool -- the amount you want is enough to live your best life. Wealth is being able to live how you want... where you want... spending your time on fulfilling work and pursuits... with no thought to the cost of aesthetic comforts that make life pleasurable. That takes a certain amount of dough, but nowhere near an infinite amount. Happiness isn't a giant mansion or a 150-foot-yacht or anything of the kind. People who obsess over status symbols have problems money can't solve.

7) Live Life to the Fullest. Henry de Monfreid was a French high seas adventurer who wrote many books. On his death bed at age 95 he said: "I have lived a rich, restless, magnificent life." That is the way to go (pun intended). In climbing the tree of success, don't be so focused on the higher branches that you forget to stop and taste the fruits. If you don't have fun, you squander opportunity to build great memories. If you don't explore the unknown, you squander opportunity for personal growth. Life is for living. Unique and fulfilling experiences are worth having, even at the cost of some pain. Leave the beaten path. Add to your collection of campfire stories to tell. Be bold and unconventional as a matter of principle. Manage risk, but remember that sometimes the greatest risk is not taking a risk. Pour yourself out and don't hold back.

Embracing mistakes and Not weaknesses

EVOLUTION, MORPHEUS, EVOLUTION

Think of the following logic chain:

1. Error Data (Mistakes + Weaknesses) = Constructive Feedback
2. Constructive Feedback = Opportunity to Analyze and Refine
3. Analyzing and Refining = Incremental Improvement
4. Incremental Improvement = Micro-Evolution
5. Micro-Evolution over extended time cycles = Macro-Evolution
6. Macro-Evolution = Smarter, Faster, Deeper, Stronger
7. Smarter, Faster, Deeper, Stronger = DOMINATE

Best,

B.R.

Pictures that make you go Hmmm...

Spectacular Photos Of A Partially-Frozen Niagara Falls
Wall Street's Brightest Minds Reveal The Most Important Charts Of The Year
Here's A Quick Guide To What Traders Are Chatting About Right Now
Enjoy.

The DX update before the NFP.

GBP is retracing especially GBPCAP

That was then (Before the NFP surprise), this is now (After the NFP Surprise).

Finally the GU is being convinced to give up his UTL, let's see if its gonna follow through and close the Day under.

Where are we Patterns wise ;

EU: Bearish engulfing in play.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_2.png

GU : Bearish Engulfing.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...Picture_12.png

UJ : Bullish Engulfing candle pattern

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...Picture_11.png

USDX : Bullish Engulfing candle pattern

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_3.png

UCHF : Bullish Engulfing candle pattern

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...Picture_11.png

UCAD : A Shooting Star candle pattern



http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...Picture_12.png

AU : Bearish Engulfing Candle pattern

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...Picture_11.png

These are the overall market directions, all the USD pairs seems to have a Bullish reversal with the recent strength of the Dollar, it could or could not materialize, depends on a zillion factors, Enjoy.

Best,
B.R.

Weekly Forex Trading Forecast
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist ; John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist ; Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist ; David Song, Currency Analyst and Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

Symbol Forecast Outlook

US Dollar Outlook Steady as Bulls Ready for Volatility, More Taper bullish

Euro Starting to Struggle as Growth Momentum Slips – PMIs This Week

Japanese Yen Poised for Big Moves on Key Bank of Japan Decision neutral

British Pound Holds Key Support- Eyes 1.6600 Ahead of BoE Minutes bullish

Gold Supported by Dismal NFPs- $1270 in Focus Ahead of CPI bullish

Canadian Dollar To Consolidate Ahead of GDP Report neutral

Australian Dollar Hoping for a Correction After Dramatic Selloff neutral

New Zealand Dollar to Hold Range Ahead of RBNZ neutral

That's what we're expecting as Risk events news this week.

Best
B.R.

Our good read of the Day :

The US Is Closed On Monday, And The Rest Of The Week Should Be Quiet — Here's Your Complete Preview
These Two Charts Show Why Everyone Is Watching Chinese Data
Asian Markets Fell, European Markets Are... Meh
Germany's Biggest Bank Is In A Serious Slump
Chinese Economic Growth Slows To Lowest Level Since 1999
Deutsche Bank Just Announced A Massive Unexpected Quarterly Net Loss
Chinese GDP growth likely to have slowed
Enjoy,
B.R.

Good day.

That Was The Weak That Worked: Part 3
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmy...-worked-part-3

Thank you P., here is something that makes u feel good today.
The USDX, DOW, DAX, ES, EU.

Here we go, again :

Here's A Quick Guide To What Traders Are Chatting About Right Now
The Simplest Explanation For Wall Street Greed We've Ever Read
Bonds Are Up, The Dollar Is Tanking, Gold Is Surging, And Stocks Are Taking A Beating
EXISTING HOME SALES MISS EXPECTATIONS
FLASH US PMI FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN FOUR MONTHS
Initial Jobless Claims Barely Climb
10 Things You Need To Know This Morning

Yep, one more time, enjoy.
B.R.

This week's price action essentials :

Large Degree Yen Correction Takes Hold; GBP Telling Us Something?
By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

1. GBPUSD Outside Day Reversal From Major Level
2. USDJPY Former Highs of Interest at 101.52 and 100.60
3. USDCHF Trendline Re-Test

EUR/USD

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_7.png

-EURUSD remains capped by the trendline that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs. This week, price found low at the line that extends off of the September and November lows.
-The late December failure still raises the possibility of a double top with the October and December highs. The pattern would trigger below 1.3294 and yield a 1.2757 objective. This level is in in line with the 2013 low.
-1.3620 and 1.3800 are levels to keep in mind as support and resistance next week.

GBP/USD

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_6.png

-After trading to its highest level since April 2011 on Friday, GBPUSD carved a large outside day reversal. This is the kind of action that could lead to a larger top. Weakness below the line that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 highs and specifically 1.6308 would suggest as much.
-1.6400 is possible support next week.

AUD/USD

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png

-The next major target in AUDUSD is .7937. This target is determined by the .8847-.9757 range (.8847 – (.9757-.8847). Interestingly, the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2001 low registers at .7927. ‘Chartwise’, the 2010 low is at .8067. Significant demand may not exist until this zone.
[justify]-The market has followed through on last week’s huge outside week. The implications are that the outside week serves as the ‘kick-off’ for the next leg of the bear. Keep .8765-.8800 in mind as resistance.

NZD/USD

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_4.png

-NZDUSD spiked through the November high and reversed just shy of the September high 2 weeks ago (the rate is little changed this week). .8450-.8550 has been an area that ‘created’ a number of important tops in recent years.
-Longer term trend remains sideways, possibly within the confines of a triangle (since 2011). In general, the market has responded to longer term resistance (highs in March 2012, December 2012, February 2013, and October 2013).

USD/JPY

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_3.png

-“USDJPY is respecting the gap from October 2008 at 105.30. This level and the outside day seen on January 2nd should at least warn of a pause in the uptrend.
-“An exceptionally steep trendline that connects the lows from November 2012 and October 2013 just about intersects with the July high of 101.52 next week. Obviously, it would take an exceptional decline to reach that level. The line that connects the 1998 and 2007 highs is at about 106.70 next week.” The mentioned support wasn’t quite reached but price will probably open near it next week (line is at 102 next week). Highs from 2013 at 101.52 and 100.60 are possible supports.
-There is an Elliott wave case to be made for a return to the 4thwave of one less degree. The range spans 93.78 to 96.55.

USD/CAD

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_2.png

-Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low. Such market swings tend to exhibit extreme rates of change (so please refrain from terms such as ‘overbought’ or ‘divergence’).
-The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position.

USD/CHF

Weekly

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_1.png

-The USDCHF may have completed a corrective decline from the 2012 high in late December. The decline is in 3 waves, channels in a corrective manner (connect the origin of waves A and C and project a parallel from the terminus of wave A to project the terminus of wave C), and consists of 2 equal waves (would be exactly equal at .8888…the lowest weekly close was actually .8885).
-“The break above the trendline that originates at the July high adds credence to a larger trend change. Do be aware of the presence of the June low at .9129 and November high at .9250 as levels that could provoke a reaction.” A reaction has taken place indeed and the rate is testing the mentioned line from above as support. Keep .8910 in mind as support.

The big picture, very important to read and take note of these levels.

Best,
B.R.

A sort of rap it all up MRM ( Money and Risk Management), the basics but the most important issues one should focus on when trading, some people ( me included ) say that this is the holy grail of trading that everybody is looking for, and i'm sure it is.

The ABC’s of Risk Management
By James Stanley, Forex Trading Instructor - 16 August 2012 03:00 GMT http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/img/common/blank.gif

The ABC’s of Risk Management

Many begin to trade because they want to make a large amount of money with a small initial investment. In the Forex market, where leverage can be extended up to 50 times the value of the trader’s account - this can often be one of the primary drivers to bring new traders into the market. What is not always immediately prominent to these traders is that they also face the very real risk of losing money.
New traders can become blinded by greed; although greed, in and of itself - isn’t necessarily a bad thing. After all, anyone that wanted to improve their financial situation in the past needed the same type of pragmatic foresight to want more, right?
The negative aspect of this ‘new trader greed’ isn’t so much the greed itself, but rather what it can cause new traders to do; actions that can cause catastrophic impact to their accounts, their goals, and if left uncheck - a few trades can even ruin their trading career.
This article is an attempt to help traders prevent such scenarios by focusing on the the more common pitfalls of risk.

Pit-fall A: Trading without a Stop
Some traders, after brief investigation of technical charts, come to the conclusion that price oscillates so wildly - that if they are patient enough with a losing trade, price will come back to their entry level, or perhaps even allow them to make a small profit.
This is far from the truth. Just ask any trader that bought GBPJPY at 250.00 or above in July of 2007 (the current price at time of writing is below 124.00, a move of nearly 50% of the currency pair’s value).

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_6.png

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II

Any trader employing the mantra of ‘price will come back’ with a GBPJPY position from July of 2007 is sitting in a pretty rough situation right now. And the prospects of price making a meteoric 100% rise in price seems distant; if at all even possible.
This falls exactly in-line with the research performed for the DailyFX Traits of Successful Traders series, in which Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez found that The Number One Mistake that Forex Traders Make is that traders often lose so much more when they are wrong than they make when they are right.
How to Prevent Pit-fall A: Place a stop on every trade that is taken, so that when you are incorrect in a trade idea the damage can be mitigated. In the DailyFX On-Demand Video Course, we suggest risking less than 5% of the trader’s account at any one point in time. Many traders wanting to be more conservative have taken this a step further, looking to risk a maximum of 1% of their account value on each individual trade idea.
The illustration below will show how this can be done:

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png
Pit-fall B: Using unbalanced risk-reward ratios
As an extension of the Number One Mistake that Traders Make, traders observed in the research that spanned over 12 million individual trades often took far larger losses on losing positions than they gained on winning positions. The bar graph below, taken directly from the article, shows traders’ average wins (in blue) and average losses (in red) in some of the more common currency pairs:

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_4.png

Taken from The Number One Mistake Forex Traders Make, by David Rodriguez

The reason for many of these instances is likely lack of planning. After all, not many traders go into trades expecting to lose 2 dollars for every 1 dollar they may potentially gain. A much more likely scenario is a trader initiating a position because they feel a particular move might materialize, and in their zeal to get in before missing out - they fail to place a stop or a limit on the trade.
When they check on the trade a few hours later, they may be in for a sour surprise. And as human nature dictates for us to desire to be right, traders with small gains might close the trade quickly for fear of seeing it turn into a loss while traders with losing positions might hold on to the trade just hoping that price will get back; only closing the trade and facing the music when it becomes obvious that that is not the case.
How to Prevent Pit-fall B: Ensure that the limit on the trade is AT LEAST the distance of the stop on the position.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_3.png

Pit-fall C: Employing too much leverage
As we started with in this article, many come to the FX market looking to make a lot of money with a small investment. This is made possible by the large amounts of leverage that are made available. What may not be immediately prominent to traders is that excessive leverage will often bring disastrous consequences over the long-term.
And just because leverage is available - it doesn’t mean that it all has to be used. As a matter of fact, many professional traders will trade with far less than the available leverage amounts in an effort to get the best overall return.
This may sound counter-intuitive to new traders: Why would one trade with less leverage in an attempt to make more?
But an easy way to think of this is as such:
When you are trading a position that is too large, each pip movement in price has that much more of an impact to your trading account. And just like we looked at above, many new traders hinge their results in the market based on emotional reactions. And when the trade size is too large, and each pip matters so much - it only hastens the process by which these traders have to make short-term reactive decisions.
In the 4th part of the Traits of Successful Traders series, Jeremy Wagner looks at exactly that. In the investigation of ‘How Much Capital Should I Trade Forex With,’ Jeremy found that traders with smaller balances in their accounts would often take on far larger levels of risk.
From the table below taken directly from the article, you can see that traders with less than $1000 in their accounts would, on average, take 26 times leverage on their trades (for every $100 in the account, the trader is trading a position on average of $2600); whereas traders with between $5,000 and $9,999 would take on far more moderate levels (on average 5:1, a trader taking on a position of $500 for every $100 in their account).

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_2.png

Taken from How Much Capital Should I Trade Forex With, by Jeremy Wagner

Correspondingly, the traders at 5:1 leverage saw profitability at far greater clips than traders at 26:1. Traders using extreme leverage were profitable only 21% of the time, where traders using 5:1 leverage were profitable 37% of the time.
Some traders may think that traders with between $5,000 and $9,999 were more experienced, professional traders.
How to Prevent Pit-fall C:Avoid excessive levels of leverage. Many professional traders attempt to keep their leverage under 10:1, meaning that they are taking on positions less than $10,000 for every $1,000 in their trading accounts. Some traders take this a step further (such as those observed in the Traits of Successful Traders research) by using smaller levels such as 5:1 (taking on positions less than $5,000 for every $1,000 in their trading accounts). The table below will outline some of the more popular Leverage ratios with amounts that traders can utilize in an attempt to stay under the 10:1 leverage amount:

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_1.png
--- Written by James B. Stanley

Another piercing, engulfing candlestick pattern or outside day on the GU on resistance, very important to follow, with fairly good chance of bearish reversal and the formation of double top.

Very important reversal day on all the Indices, the dow lost about 300 point, a drop that reminded us of the 2008 days of the Financial crisis and the bear stern, Lehman, AIG crash days.

Investors flee developing countries, the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira has being hit hard.
U.S. Markets Tumble as Fear Spreads
Argentina effect hits emerging currencies Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, India and Russia all suffer.
Emerging markets suffer a developing hangover Fed, China and now Argentina send investors scurrying for cover
S&P 500 dragged down by EM fallout Investors dump equities and emerging currencies
EM currencies slide on China concerns Argentine peso falls 17 per cent over the week
Aberdeen leads London lower on EM falls Fears over China’s economy and Argentine devaluation hit FTSE 100
US stocks fall on expectations of Fed trim Dow and S&P 500 have their steepest declines since June
The World Got A Major Wake-Up Call From China
The 'Fear Gauge' Went Through The Roof Today

These are a must read over the weekend for the serious investor and trader, i know that its a lot of materials but we can't get any better if we don't do this.
Just look @ the charts to see the magnitude of the fear factor, quoting the Master "you have to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy", maybe its time to make a shift in this never ending indices bull market.

Enjoy responsibly with a cup of mocha or a latte on Saturday afternoon ( if you are not watching the Premier league like me) or Sunday morning.
B.R.

And since your at it continue reading this to find out what's really is the reason behind the sell-off.
All Of The Turmoil In Global Markets Right Now Is Just One Gigantic Hedge Fund Short Squeeze

Have a nice weekend everybody.
Best,
B.R.

Good day.

All about MT4 Program, Indicator, Script & EA
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=468157

The EU Hourly.