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Accurate Zones For Day Trading Futures and Currencies

  • #21
  • Jan 9, 2014 9:35am Jan 9, 2014 9:35am
Hi Techfan

I have been following along. You stated earlier you would post your zones before market open, around 8:15am EST. Are you no longer going to post. In the above 6E example, the US session open has come and gone without zones defined. It would be good to see the zones beforehand. If possible could you also post/review the GBP 6b.

Thanks
Koh
  • #22
  • Jan 9, 2014 1:40pm Jan 9, 2014 1:40pm
Perfect ES trade short today... The zones continue to work. Let me know if you have any questions or if there are some zones you would like to see.
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  • #23
  • Jan 9, 2014 3:40pm Jan 9, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Koh Samet
Hi Techfan I have been following along. You stated earlier you would post your zones before market open, around 8:15am EST. Are you no longer going to post. In the above 6E example, the US session open has come and gone without zones defined. It would be good to see the zones beforehand. If possible could you also post/review the GBP 6b. Thanks Koh

Sorry about that... I sent out to all of the folks that I send these zones to in their email and I forgot to post here. I thought that I did. My bad... Ill attach the screenshot that I should have posted. Please forgive me. I'll get them up tomorrow morning before 7AM CST (unless something comes up). I'll try to remember the 6B

Please see what I sent out at 650AM CST this morning... Just forgot to put it on the forum. My apologies.
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  • #24
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:26pm Jan 9, 2014 5:26pm
It baffles me how you can draw short term trade zones for a futures contract derived from an index which aggregates the share price of 500 companies, each with their own individual behaviour, market cap & weighting within the index and constantly changing fair value premium.

You must be one hell of an analyst to hit the 80% accuracy rate you state.
  • #25
  • Jan 9, 2014 5:32pm Jan 9, 2014 5:32pm
I know you weren't asking me about this but I will answer. It doesn't matter if it's an individual stock or or group of stocks or FX or a group of FX pairs , Commodities whatever. Even if someone were to combine every FX pair with every commodity and stock in one ETF all together, it would still move/trade like any other instrument. It's all mathematics and human emotions beyond our comprehension. It's all the same concept. For instance you can find a "W" aka double bottom on any chart. You can use a fib tool on any chart and see price reacting to the lines. It's really amazing. In ancient china they traded rice on charts before we had a stock market.

Quoting TranceTrader
It baffles me how you can draw short term trade zones for a futures contract derived from an index which aggregates the share price of 500 companies, each with their own individual behaviour, market cap & weighting within the index and constantly changing fair value premium. You must be one hell of an analyst to hit the 80% accuracy rate you state.
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #26
  • Edited 8:13pm Jan 9, 2014 6:46pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting TranceTrader
It baffles me how you can draw short term trade zones for a futures contract derived from an index which aggregates the share price of 500 companies, each with their own individual behaviour, market cap & weighting within the index and constantly changing fair value premium. You must be one hell of an analyst to hit the 80% accuracy rate you state.
Dude, You obviously have no idea what an index is or how it trades. Think a little bit before you comment next time...

Also, I didnt say that you would win 80-85% of your trades, I said the market will react to the zones 80-85% of the time. Price reacting and winning trades are 2 different things. You can however win 65-75% of the time if you take only perfect set ups, and your Reward to risk even after scaling out is at least 1.5:1, and in many cases 2:1. If you put those two numbers, that's a winning formula. You can look at the charts, and watch the videos. Here's two more from today. I'll post the before images that shows the zones drawn before the day opened, then I show the videos with the recap. You can see on the charts that I actually traded todday. Entry points and targets. No need to be sarcastic if you dont believe something to be true.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Believe what you wish. Good luck with your trading
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  • #27
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:00pm Jan 9, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting JoeNY
I know you weren't asking me about this but I will answer. It doesn't matter if it's an individual stock or or group of stocks or FX or a group of FX pairs , Commodities whatever. Even if someone were to combine every FX pair with every commodity and stock in one ETF all together, it would still move/trade like any other instrument. It's all mathematics and human emotions beyond our comprehension. It's all the same concept. For instance you can find a "W" aka double bottom on any chart. You can use a fib tool on any chart and see price reacting...

Cudos for the good explanation!
  • #28
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:36pm Jan 9, 2014 8:36pm
I appreciate the help, Have a great trading year. More FX for us please.
  • #29
  • Jan 9, 2014 8:53pm Jan 9, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting NetBurl
I appreciate the help, Have a great trading year. More FX for us please.

You asked for more forex. Which instruments are you referring too? I currently only do futures markets, but these zones are universal so I can see how the zones work on some currencies. Do you have any in mind?
  • #30
  • Jan 9, 2014 10:31pm Jan 9, 2014 10:31pm
6E zone and targets for London Session
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  • #31
  • Jan 9, 2014 11:45pm Jan 9, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting TranceTrader
It baffles me how you can draw short term trade zones for a futures contract derived from an index which aggregates the share price of 500 companies, each with their own individual behaviour, market cap & weighting within the index and constantly changing fair value premium. You must be one hell of an analyst to hit the 80% accuracy rate you state.
Take a look at these screenshots. Do I need to say anything else about the accuracy of these zones? These zones and targets were sent out via email to some of my fellow traders at 8:03 CST this morning, 27 min before the market open. See second screenshot (this is what i sent out).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #32
  • Edited 4:43am Jan 10, 2014 3:55am | Edited 4:43am
In 2 years time, lets see if you still hold the same beliefs. The reality is your explanation is too simplistic, the whole *human emotions* excuse for technical analysis is a fallacy and It takes time to understand why.

To suggest that all instruments move alike is ridiculous, the only similarity they share is the possibility of moving up and down... that's it. Try looking at the history of volatility differences between stocks & government bonds, currencies & grains, indices & junk bonds, eurodollar futures & weather derivatives. If it was as simple as you suggest do you think trading desks at investment banks would need specialists for each instrument? Do you think Goldman Sachs traders draw boxes on a 3 min chart based on *human emotion* or have a big alarm in the main office which goes off when a double top or bottom forms on a chart or one of the many other 100's of technical patterns? No, they do not.

There is a bigger picture you're not seeing and to understand it you need to realise that retail trading spectrum is the plankton of the system, mainly uninformed, bewildered and easily led.


Quoting JoeNY
I know you weren't asking me about this but I will answer. It doesn't matter if it's an individual stock or or group of stocks or FX or a group of FX pairs , Commodities
whatever. Even if someone were to combine every FX pair with every commodity and stock in one ETF all together, it would still move/trade like any other instrument. It's all mathematics and human emotions beyond our comprehension. It's all the same concept. For instance you can find a "W" aka double bottom on any chart. You can use a fib tool on any chart and see price reacting...
  • #33
  • Edited 5:21am Jan 10, 2014 4:04am | Edited 5:21am
Dude, I do have an idea what an index is, I trade them myself. Maybe you want to read up on the index and see how it's price is derived? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500

Don't be offensive when someone asks you about your methodology. I noticed in another post you mentioned that you charge people a small fee for explaining how you identify your zones, so if you're selling something don't react so immaturely when it's scrutinised.

Also, we can all draw boxes on charts showing relations in retrospect. Your zones don't really look like anything new, standard support and resistance flip zones sometimes explained as stop areas... but I'm sure you add your own spice to justify the purchase.

Quoting techfan1128
{quote} Dude, You obviously have no idea what an index is or how it trades. Think a little bit before you comment next time... Also, I didnt say that you would win 80-85% of your trades, I said the market will react to the zones 80-85% of the time. Price reacting and winning trades are 2 different things. You can however win 65-75% of the time if you take only perfect set ups, and your Reward to risk even after scaling out is at least 1.5:1, and in many cases 2:1. If you put those two numbers, that's a winning formula. You can look at the charts,...
  • #34
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:01am Jan 10, 2014 5:01am
Quoting TranceTrader
Dude, I do have an idea what an index is, I trade them myself. Maybe you want to read up on the index and see how it's price is derived? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500 Don't be offensive when someone asks you about your methodology. I noticed in another post you mentioned that you charge people a small fee for explaining how you identify your zones, so if you're selling something don't react so immature when it's scrutinised. Also, we can all draw boxes on charts showing relations in retrospect. Your zones don't really look like...

I am not offended. I just think its funny how you make a mockery of me saying price can react 85% at a certain levels, without even knowing what I am doing. You didnt ask about my method, you basically said I am full of crap and there is no way to accurately predict that an instrument "comprised of 500 stocks" can be accurately predicted. And as for stop zones, I draw the zones before they actually develop as stop zones. Other people may draw the zone after the market has opened and they have seen price react at that area, I draw it before price ever does anything in that area. As for charging money, everything here at forex factory is given out for free with no strings attached.

Anyway, im not going to get hung on going back and forth with you so this will be my last response to you on this particular topic. There plenty of evidence that the zones and targets are accurate, and I'll let the future charts continue to prove my point. Hopefully you will join along with us here at the forum and use the zones for your benefit, if you dont want to, thats totally cool.

Alright guys, check out the next post that is coming. It is an update of the 6E.
  • #35
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:04am Jan 10, 2014 5:04am
6E has worked its way (slowly) down to the zone. Obviously right now is not a great time to be trading since we have the biggest news release of the month coming up in 2 1/2 hours. Also, noticed where price is in relationship to the MA's. We are in a downtrend and to take a long trade here (even with a good pattern) is more risky.

I would stay out until after NFP releases today. Let's see if once the US zone is drawn in if we can get a reaction off of the zone. Be back later
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:12am Jan 10, 2014 5:12am
Quoting TranceTrader
In 2 years time, lets see if you still hold the same beliefs. The reality is your explanation is too simplistic, the whole *human emotions* excuse for technical analysis is a fallacy and It takes time to understand why. To suggest that all instruments move alike is ridiculous, the only similarity they share is the possibility of moving up and down... that's it. Try looking at the history of volatility differences between stocks & government bonds, currencies & grains, indices & junk bonds, eurodollar futures & weather derivatives. If it was as simple...
I just saw this comment (as i responded to the one that came in after this one already). I actually agree with what you are saying. The institutions use retail traders to create liquidity on the market. So they manipulate the market and draw all the little guys in so they can get enough orders in the market to fill their trades in the opposite direction. I been around the block a time or two as well. One thing to keep in mind, Im not saying all instruments trade and move the same way. They dont. Just look at the ES and the CL. they move completely different. So im not saying that one does not need to know the intricacies of the instruments they trade, but generally speaking, on all instruments the Big guys who are taking all the little guys money do it in the same general places every day and if we know these areas in advance, we can be paying attention and try and take advantage of an opportunity when we get confirmation once price hits that area.

This will prove out over 2 years because it has already proven out for more than a decade.

By the way, the response you have here in this post, is much more like the responses I would expect anyone to have. You bring up your argument w/o saying that im stupid and there is no way this could work. Thats totally cool, and thanks for a more level headed response. Happy trading!
  • #37
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:14am Jan 10, 2014 5:14am
With all due respect, I didn't say half of what you've mentioned, that's down to your own interpretation of my words, yes it was bordering on sarcastic but in some respects it was a compliment (notice I'm baffled) because the task of short term trading with that level of accuracy on the S&P 500 would be VERY difficult for the reasons stated and I imagine very time consuming.

Quoting techfan1128
{quote} I am not offended. I just think its funny how you make a mockery of me saying price can react 85% at a certain levels, without even knowing what I am doing. You didnt ask about my method, you basically said I am full of crap and there is no way to accurately predict that an instrument "comprised of 500 stocks" can be accurately predicted. And as for stop zones, I draw the zones before they actually develop as stop zones. Other people may draw the zone after the market has opened and they have seen price react at that area, I draw it before...
  • #38
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:17am Jan 10, 2014 5:17am
Again, I never called you stupid. I said I was baffled by your analysis.

Also, the reply was to the JoeNY guy, about his simplistic explanation of incomprehensible mathematics and human emotion driving all instruments which wasn't related at your approach.

Quoting techfan1128
{quote} I just saw this comment (as i responded to the one that came in after this one already). I actually agree with what you are saying. The institutions use retail traders to create liquidity on the market. So they manipulate the market and draw all the little guys in so they can get enough orders in the market to fill their trades in the opposite direction. I been around the block a time or two as well. One thing to keep in mind, Im not saying all instruments trade and move the same way. They dont. Just look at the ES and the CL. they move...
  • #39
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:40am Jan 10, 2014 5:40am
Quoting TranceTrader
Again, I never called you stupid. I said I was baffled by your analysis. Also, the reply was to the JoeNY guy, about his simplistic explanation of incomprehensible mathematics and human emotion driving all instruments which wasn't related at your approach. {quote}
Ill tell you what, I apologize for the way I took what you said, Lets do a virtual hand shake and put it behind us and have some fun in here!
  • #40
  • Jan 10, 2014 5:43am Jan 10, 2014 5:43am
I dont trade the spot forex any more (spreads, no central exchange, iffy brokers, ect...), but with that being said, these levels still work on Spot forex as well. I went and downloaded a mt4 platform from forex.com and drew the london zone in on the EUR/USD. Price reacted the same as it did on the 6E contract to the trade zone. Now once again, the W pattern at the zone is higher risk because its against the short term trend, but with that being said, if you wanted to (when the pattern appeared scalp a few ticks (not my cup of tea, I have found scalping to be an account killer in my experience), you could absolutely do that against the trend. Let me know if you have any questions.
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