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AUD/USD

  • #71,281
  • Jan 7, 2014 7:42am Jan 7, 2014 7:42am
AUDUSD Daily and Weekly Forecast for 7th January 2014 (Tuesday)
Daily Chart
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zPukjt531v...1-07_13-41.jpg





  1. We have been getting higher lows and higher highs in this corrective move
  2. Trend is Bearish
  3. Currently Stochastic is diverging, however RSI still going up and is below 50



Our forecast is for the Aussie to go up to 0.90300 before continuing down creating new lows.




Hourly Chart (4h chart)

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jvJrGRzdva...1-07_13-41.jpg



  1. Last few days is showing an up trend
  2. Currently Stochastic is diverging
  3. We believe we have one more push (completion of b-c leg, before the C-D leg down)


Outlook Trade opportunity
#1 Long setup opportunity with a low risk high reward - Please see 4h chart for trade recommendation
#2 Short setup - Please see 4hr chart for trade recommendation

Only the strong survives!
  • #71,282
  • Jan 7, 2014 8:08am Jan 7, 2014 8:08am
Not too sure if it can breach 0.9 in the first place.
If you notice, 0.9 last week were aggressively being shorted at. Because the overall trend is still bearish, bulls might not have the strength to reach that level.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #71,283
  • Jan 7, 2014 9:50am Jan 7, 2014 9:50am
Hi all,
First time writer here, so don't judge.
I'm looking at Open interest at CME for 6AH4 and I see that AUD touched bottom on a very low OI.
Now, very low OI at the tip of the trend is an indication of absence of fuel for the market to go further by the trend.
It is an indication of a correction in developement, at the very least. This correction might be very well a flat range between 0.88-0.91 fro few weeks, who knows.
But I would be very cautious to go short from these levels.
Similar OI situation was with GBP (6B) last July. when OI was stagnant and remained at its lows for 7 weeks. GBP rose 1500 points from July-13.
I will be cautiously bullish in this market. If my longs failed I will not go short.
At least with these setups in COT and OI
https://www.evernote.com/shard/s168/...mall&width=832
https://www.evernote.com/shard/s168/...mall&width=832
True knowledge is knowing that you know nothing. Socrates.
  • #71,284
  • Jan 7, 2014 12:02pm Jan 7, 2014 12:02pm
don't forget the RBA governor Stevens prefer the AUD/USD to be 85 US cents this month.
  • #71,285
  • Jan 7, 2014 2:27pm Jan 7, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting 2301041124
don't forget the RBA governor Stevens prefer the AUD/USD to be 85 US cents this month.
Market really doesn't care what Stevens say.
ECB prefer to have EURUSD at 1.25, so what?
True knowledge is knowing that you know nothing. Socrates.
  • #71,286
  • Jan 7, 2014 3:57pm Jan 7, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting Sarkel
{quote} Market really doesn't care what Stevens say. ECB prefer to have EURUSD at 1.25, so what?
I second this !!!
  • #71,287
  • Jan 7, 2014 4:04pm Jan 7, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting 2301041124
don't forget the RBA governor Stevens prefer the AUD/USD to be 85 US cents this month.
Quoting Sarkel
{quote} Market really doesn't care what Stevens say. ECB prefer to have EURUSD at 1.25, so what?
The worst part of this urban legend is that he never said that.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #71,288
  • Jan 7, 2014 4:07pm Jan 7, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} {quote} The worst part of this urban legend is that he never said that.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...stralia-credit

  • #71,289
  • Jan 7, 2014 4:15pm Jan 7, 2014 4:15pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} I second this !!!
Can I third this? lol
  • #71,290
  • Jan 7, 2014 4:16pm Jan 7, 2014 4:16pm
Quoting 2301041124
{quote} http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...stralia-credit
TY I read the reuteurs news report, but I keep my standing that he doesn't said that. You read what you want to read, not what it's reported truly.

Can you understand the difference between what you've written

Quoting 2301041124
don't forget the RBA governor Stevens prefer the AUD/USD to be 85 US cents this month.
and what is written in the link you gave me "Stevens said this month he would prefer the currency to fall to 85 U.S. cents"

Anyway GL and Good Night.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #71,291
  • Jan 8, 2014 2:20am Jan 8, 2014 2:20am
I am entering short now. SL 0.8960 Targeting 0.8855
  • #71,292
  • Jan 8, 2014 2:42am Jan 8, 2014 2:42am
AUDUSD- stops below .8890 in focus
  • #71,293
  • Jan 8, 2014 3:43am Jan 8, 2014 3:43am
Quoting KiwiOz
Back in action again after visiting inlaws n outlaws. Ozzie on the way down again.?? 0.8850 looks like a good target for now. {image}
Slowly but surely...Apipin we shall go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #71,294
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:13am Jan 8, 2014 6:13am
Quoting 2301041124
{quote} http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...stralia-credit
This is how I am reading the article.

A weaker currency are driving away investors. That means its people will suffer with no jobs.
ie. AudUsd will remain low for a long period of time.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #71,295
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:00am Jan 8, 2014 7:00am
bought a little of AUD/USD, looks good for an upside today
  • #71,296
  • Jan 8, 2014 7:58am Jan 8, 2014 7:58am
Quoting Ulterior
bought a little of AUD/USD, looks good for an upside today

Yep,me too on a bulish side, but first i am waiting for break out small down trend on m30-15

Edit: it could be up triangle, my profit will be 0.8972

Sincerely
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  • #71,297
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:06am Jan 8, 2014 8:06am
Just thought I'd drop by and let you all know the carry trade will revive between 87xx and 85xx

Probably 85xx.

get those pips baby

(I got long 8900 in September..posted in this thread.. I kinda know what I'm doing here,)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #71,298
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:29pm Jan 8, 2014 6:29pm
Price approaching a test of 0.887xx expecting a success with target 0.85xxx 50% fib
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  • #71,299
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:34pm Jan 8, 2014 6:34pm
AUD - November building approvals in at -1.5% vs forecast of -1.0%.
AUD - Retail Sales for the month of November in at 0.7% vs 0.5% forecasted.

Building approvals down, actually good for Australia as the RBA does not want to fuel the housing bubble. Growth is up in retail sales showing that the local economy is strengthening and still feeling the effects of the RBA's last round of rate cuts.
  • #71,300
  • Jan 8, 2014 6:40pm Jan 8, 2014 6:40pm
Some large orders at this level
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