why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

System Programmer Freelance.

None of it is random, it only appears random to a casual observer!!

Humans acting in a herd is what makes them predictable and also stupid, all about the herd effect.

I would think that on a D1 chart you would need a sample size of around 20 years. Even that would be pushing it. I understand what you are conveying, but is what you are conveying enough to bet the farm?

That is what redlion was aiming at, I think. Just how certain is all of our analysis and prognostications?

If we were that fooking sure, we would be having this convo in person, somewhere warm, with good food and........well you get the gist.

You are assuming that each human has one vote each. But that is not true. If Shinzo Abe decide the Yen is going down in the morning, guess what is going to happen, regardless of what our chart says?

This thread is going nowhere.

As long as he's selling or shorting to move it down, then I'm happy cause I can jump on the momentum he creates


interesting, GA's been in a uptrend until well just, uptrend just failed, watch it head down over the rest of the day, lower highs and higher low's.

It's going around in circles, ahhhh your right!!


Ahhh to talk to objective science people hey Not I heard this first and will believe till the day I die people!!

it was indeed, My pc was running off stats going to 2000 but I did have stats going back a lot longer but these were stuck in folders and I really never quoted them. But you refer to authors of books, I have read a lot of them and have copies, a lot of stats can be obtained off internet.
so PREDICTING,,,,, does it have to be 100% guaranteed win

Ah, that is the real question.

So, what statistical percentage would we need to be correct, and for how long, to say that we can predict? That is the essential question.

Amen....

every trade I ever did was a prediction to myself. I don't think I have ever told anyone online which way a certain pair would go. I did mention a/u a few days ago dropping and it went up lol but as I wasn't actively trading that was really a guess.
A lot of my online friends knew how I traded and what pairs (and oil) and when they saw inside bars etc they didn't have to ask me how I was doing , they could see and knew I would of traded them

That's compelling. Thanks for sharing.

getting back to e/j and predictions, we spoke last week about gapping and I said a gap has a good statistical chance of retracing back and a lot of people trade this (I never did) look at e/j it gapped down 100 pips and has now returned 100 pips.
and NO it wasn't an inside bar, sunday doesn't count

Ok here are they, they are not 55% more like 54% but stilll good, i didnt remembered it well but i guess it has an edge so take care of this information that i will post here now:

INVERTED HAMMER AND HANGING MAN STATISTICS by PROXIMUS

PipMeUp YOU WILL LOVE THIS!

First lets define what i mean by hanging man and inv hammer, here is this picture i made:

To my definition, or atleast the models i used in my research (similar to Bulkowsky's research):

1. a hanging man is a red candle with a lower shadow where the lower shadow is 2x or more bigger than the body, and it is below a 10 period SMA shifted by [1] based on the close price (upper shadow not considered)
2. an inverted hammer is a green candle with a higher shadow which is 2x or more bigger than the body, and its above the 10 period SMA shifter by [1] period and based on the close price (lower shadow not considered)

The sample size is 20 years sized historical data, and found 2 million hanging mans and inverted hammers in 50 million normal candles, so it made up 4% of the candlesticks in the past 20 years

I used 2 databases, 1 complete from M1 to H1 ,and one with only H1 timeframe.It had similar results.

I calculated the expectancy (including my average 0.9 pipette spread, if you have bigger one it might not work for you if you have smaller then it works better), which was calculated by entering right at the next candle and exiting when it was over, so our RR totally depended on the size of the next candle.

So NO SL and NO TP, was used only a manual close (automatic because the EA did it) BUT no SL and NO TP.The number of dojis was really high so this is also interesting, but we only concentrated on hanging man and inv hammer.

I choosed the inv hammer the pair of the hangin man because its exactly the opposite for bullish cases.

The result cell showed the overall results measured by expectancy, so it was negative, because not all FOREX pairs were good to trade this , but if you pick the best pairs with the highest expectancy with this pattern then it might work

Here is the my entire research on these 2 patterns.Take care of this information,hope you make much money with it.

CISCO Futures
1-303-306-1521 1-800 800 7227 Fax 1-303-306-1572
http://www.cisco-futures.com
[email protected]




Candlesticks, a Critique
By Donald L. Jones
There is no 'trading university'. A potential trader typically looks for training and educational courses on the internet or through a brokerage firm. Most of these sources have a goal, brokerages to get the new person trading as soon as possible; purveyors of courses to get the newbie to take their course. Neither route seems to be very successful, since it is reported that some 90 to 95 percent of new traders fail within their first year.

The courses often teach a goodly amount of worthwhile information; a respect for leverage, a reasonable approach to risk management and so forth. Most courses fail where the rubber meets the road, at the trading model level. Most analysis schemes rely on some sort of smoothing, e.g. moving averages and oscillators. Some use an elegant display method called 'Japanese Candlesticks'.

Candlesticks Defined
Darrell Jobman, the former editor of Futures Magazine (ref1), discusses Candlestick charting, pointing out that they "emphasize the open and close and put less weight on the high and low". Further, compared to standard bar charts, "the open is much more significant for the candlestick chartist". Also, "the difference between the open and close makes up the 'body' of a time period's trading range. "It actually often looks like a candle with a wick or a tail known as a 'shadow' at either end. "If the closing price is above the opening price, the body is clear or white:, if the price at the close is below the open, the body is solid, or black." Jobman goes on to say: "Generally a series of clear or white candles indicates an uptrend or bullish market...." And he states: "A series of solid or black candles indicates a downtrend or bearish market....." Lastly, "The color and length of the candlesticks themselves provide a quick visual clue as to whether buying or selling dominates the market."

Jobman continues: "...any candlestick analyst will tell you one candle is not enough to make a trading decision." Further, "(candles) should not be viewed in isolation apart from other technical evidence".

Finally, Jobman lists various candlestick patterns and what they suggest: note, this commentary is much more abbreviated than Jobman's explanation.
1. Doji. Open and close same, unsure market
2. Spinning Tops. Small real body, somewhat like Doji
3. Hammer. Also tight open/closing range. Suggests a bullish turn
4. Hanging Man. Like Hammer, except comes at top of a market trend
5., 6., 7., 8. Stars. Small real body leaves a gap (4 kinds of stars), market is ready for reversal
9. Dark Cloud Cover. Bearish damper on an uptrend
10. Piercing Line. Bullish converse of Dark Cloud Cover
11., 12., 13. Bearish Engulfing Pattern (3). Body is larger than previous body
14. Harami. An inside day, suggests change may be imminent
15. Harami Cross. Harami including a Doji, suggests losing momentum

Although there are many candlestick patterns, there is a certain firmness to the definitions. The forms defined are real and, to some degree, measurable. It seems possible to develop a computer code of a series of open, high, low and closes, tracking a market from a candlestick viewpoint. After all, a candlestick itself is not very complicated, as the example below illustrates.


| high 471:0
|
----- close 468:6
| |
| |
| |
----- open 465:4
|
|
| low 465:0


Giovanni Maiani developed such a program, reporting his results in Stocks & Commodities Magazine in November 2002. He reports analyzing 575 American stocks over a period of 15 - 20 years. He found more than 6.14 million candlestick formations. In his words:
"The most reliable, long lower shadow, is present 1.9% of time, and anticipates a declining session 49.12% of time; a rising session 40.61% of time. For traders who are quantitatively based, candlestick patterns are not terribly useful"

Subsequently, Robert Colby, writing in SFO Magazine, Aug., 1996, found "No Major edge for Candlesticks". Further, he states: "Nevertheless, the candlestick patterns tested here failed to beat the simplest trend-following standard of comparison on a significant basis."

Steve Nison, the creator of Candlesticks, responded (S&C Jan 2003, p74) that Candlesticks are "A tool, not a system", and that you need to know the trend to use them.

However, in his article in Active Trader Magazine, January 2003, 'Candles Shed Light on the Market', one of the benefits of candle charts, Mr. Nison states, "Candle charts not only show the trend of the move, as does a bar chart,...."

We feel that if you already know the trend there is little reason to use something that we, at least, would use to find the trend. From Jobman's description, it would seem that, unlike Mr. Nison's letter to the editor, traders do look to candlesticks for directionality. As is clear from his article in Active Trader, Mr. Nison does claim candle charts show directionality.

Recognizing trends is important. The sooner, the better. After all, it is the trader's job to get aboard a directional move and to exit when congestion sets in. It certainly appears that traders think they are divining directionality from their candlestick charts, and the courses that use candlesticks for their modeling are doing the same. If Mr. Maiani's reserch is to be believed, candlestick charts are not a very good way to find directionality.

An Aside on Technical Analysis:
In the Japanese Candlesticks technical method, the basic element is a cylinder with open and close as cylinder limits; with the high and low spiking above and below the open/close base. It is well known and consistently observed in profiles that the high and low prices are rejected quickly by the market. So it appears that candlesticks are giving most weight to prices the market quickly rejects. Consequently, it is no surprise that Maiani found candlesticks to be of little use for trading decisions. Candlesticks and other charts do have the value of offering a panoramic view of market history. While of little use for current, day-to-day trading decisions, a general view of one's market is worthwhile for understanding a market in general

Everyone who isn't Derpvery just look-away. There are more interesting things for you to be doing at this moment than read this reply, and if you lot would stop replying to him I wouldn't ever feel the need to read his posts to follow the conversations some of you have with him! Yeah, thanks for that

And there it is from you like usual, Turveyd. Of course. Well, since it's (kind of still) the holidays I'm in a giving mood, so you asked and you shall receive. Choke on this and enjoy it.

My bullshit detector is finely tuned. I don't come here to waste my time reading bullshit by incompetent people. I'm also not here to share much of anything because fuck you! Why the hell should I? I'm not here to feed freeloading mouth-breathing infants like you! Regardless, it's pretty plain to see for most people that I have more than a few brain cells to rub together, which is more than anyone can say for you. I'm not some super fucking genius, but it's clear I'm doing far better than you ever could. If you don't like people like me pulling you up on your constant bullshit then go find yourself a mentally handicapped forum to post in where things are more to your level, or just stop speaking bullshit! It's pretty simple, even for a simpleton like you. Make the choice.

Just FYI I gave away on this forum a sim I coded that is leaps and bounds better than the shitty little simulator scripts that people have plopped onto this forum and long-forgotten about. I sometime later also took it away, permanently, because again, fuck... you... and everyone who looks or sounds like you! Useless tire-kickers like yourself don't deserve one tiny bit of anything I do. People on here who use my sim still thank me on occasion so it must still be circulating somewhere, and I have even been told by at least one person that what I had provided, for NOTHING, was something they would have actually paid money for if I had been charging for it instead of just giving it away! It had ACTUAL monetary value, and little shits like you had access to it for exactly $0. I've long-ago updated the sim for my own use and it's far and away better than what I had provided here. I can only imagine what people would have said about the latest version! I KNOW there are people who have done a thousand times more testing of ideas and concepts in MY sim than you've done in your whole worthless life pissing about your welfare cheque in the market pretending that next week you will ever turn a fucking dollars profit. Pathetic.

There are other bits and pieces of peoples code I've fixed for them, or stuff of my own I've provided for, again, nothing. It's all just bits and pieces I felt like doing at various times for one reason or another or for a small distraction from whatever work I was doing myself. It may not amount to a mountain of code, or even tiny hill, but I've still gone and fixed peoples shit or made it better, and provided a decent fucking sim for free YEARS AGO that people still use. Which is all leading to the obvious...

For someone such as yourself who claims to be an "old coder" I haven't seen A DAMN THING from you, ever, but I also don't expect anything from someone so useless. WHAT have you provided? Where is your claim to this forum other than being the forum idiot who runs his fucking mouth all day every day? People like you are a stain on this forum, and any other forum you might visit. For all that you run your mouth and call "troll troll!!!" you provide nothing, parrot words of people far smarter than you, and just generally act like a constant fool.

Apparently I'm 2 for 2 on picking real charts from random, which is more than I can say for you, Mr dot.com 10% super-scalper with an opinion on everything and understanding of nothing. I've given-away my time and effort on other peoples code as well as my own and debugged some peoples issues and provided advice. Again, some people still use some of my code to this day and find utility in it. I have also enjoyed tearing-apart peoples lies and nonsense and laying the facts out for all to see which has helped others see clearer through the fog of nonsense people like yourself spin on the forum.

I've done plenty, to kill time and to scratch some intellectual itches, and to deconstruct the lies that people like yourself try to hide behind. Whether you can understand it or not I've done more than just get sick of your stupidity and provide a counter-balance to it all, lest the forum topple under the sheer weight your your shit. I don't just reply to you. I usually have more interesting things to do with my time than waste it on the likes of you, but sometimes, oh sometimes, you just ask so desperately for it. I don't even spend that much time here, regardless. Why the fuck would I?

What have you ever done here but speak shit? You can't make a grammatically correct sentence. You provide nothing, and only serve to consume space and distract people with your non-stop dribble. You can't seem to understand that just because some people aren't going to suffer your posts in silence doesn't mean they don't bring something to the forum. Even if ALL I EVER did was simply reply to your posts, and your posts alone, all day every day, and actually troll you properly like you deserve, then I'd still be providing more for this forum than you ever have and ever will. Forget all of the other bits and pieces I actually have done, and the tangible benefits others have previously gained and continue to gain from my presence here. Take all of that away and have me doing nothing but trolling you with intent would still have more utility for this forum than you being here ever has.

That's how low-quality you are. Maybe reflect on that for awhile and see what conclusions you come to, if any.

So, keep trying to sling shit. You've got nothing else. You talk these fantastical fantasies of yours about how you've been trading since the dot com era where every clown and his car made money pissing into the wind, and you haven't made a dime since despite your bravado of "trading" for the last x years using 10%... 10% of nothing. You make up your own reality around you and make the mistake of believing in it. You are certifiable.

It's interesting that every single thread you enter little billytt seems to appear right after your posts. I see page after page of it. Ignored, Ignored, Ignored, in big blocks of bullshit where you two circlejerk each other with your typical nonsense posts for pages at a time ruining threads with non-stop shit and fantasies. Is this you on an alt account, and all of this time you've been pretending to be mentally handicapped just so you can come-along in another account and not sound so completely stupid? If this has all been some long-game then bravo, and I'd actually be impressed (not that I could see what your end-game could be or the point of all of it is). Or is this just some other idiot who has the misfortune of being of like-mind that you know and comes here to keep you company, because really, a lot of the time people here just ignore you, as they rightly should.

You talk like a child. You act like a child. You think like a child. And you accuse anyone who can't stand your garbage to be a troll or a forum shill to try to deflect from the patent absurdity that are your posts and your existence. Only a few other idiots who know no better buy your bullshit, so don't kid yourself, kid.

You aren't fooling anyone but yourself, and whether it is me or someone else you will forever get pulled-up time and again for dribbling all across this forum and whatever others you unfortunately frequent. It's sometimes worth a few minutes of our time to try to curb-stomp the bullshit you spew so that it doesn't take-hold on impressionable people who will only further propagate your lies and fantasies and degrade the forum more than it has. There needs to be less shit on the forum, not more, but you can't seem to help yourself... so we are stuck with pleasantries such as this until you finally can't afford your net access anymore. A day I, amongst others, look forward to.

With the volume of posting you do, and the disgustingly low intellect you put into them, it's simply not enough to just ignore you. That would only serve to legitimize what you say, and that is just not acceptable. The only fucking troll here is you and you know it. You knowingly come here and dribble each and every day! A constant flow of inescapable bullshit that has to be waded through and simply can NOT be ignored, lest people make the mistake of believing any of it.

If you spent more time thinking and learning and less time trying to impress people who preferred that you didn't exist you might up your IQ a little and do marginally better in life, not that anyone here cares one bit about your welfare, but at least the rest of us would be better-off for it.

I.e. Do the world a favor and give yourself an uppercut. You've earned it.

That's a lot of text and a complete waste of your time, cause I'm not going to bother reading it ever LOL

Your on ignore for a reason you realise, and your opinion to me is well ZERO!!

LOL

I think this is the "accepted wisdom" concerning these two patterns. Nice to see it born out in statistics.

Remember this "accepted wisdom" as well. When a pattern is broken, it is because of an overriding reason.

Can looking for broken patterns and trading them be made a profitable technique?

But anyone here happy to trade on a 4% edge only based on the next candle ??


HELL NO!!

GA's downtrend prediction is holding, it failed to make a lower low on the first attempt which concerned me, it reversed 1.8340 right on my target, dropped 40pips so far and woulda had a 15SL area.

GU's starting to turn down.

NU still uptrending

EJ turned down a while ago.


Ofcourse this isn't really predicting, it's physics, " An object in motion, generally stays in motion "

Hi Mikkk01, Magix turned into a Troll aswell, wouldn't surpise me if also a scammer after other peoples money!!

But despite my suggestion at the very start, others will!

They will benefit more from that 1 post of mine than anything you've said since joining the forum, and that is so very sad.