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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #1,021
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:14am Jan 6, 2014 9:14am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Okay, I am not trying to be a dick, and I do respect you and our conversation. But I have to press this. If you know, for a FACT, that you will win EIGHTY percent of the time, why are you risking only FIVE percent of your account? Why are you even working at ANYTHING other than trading? What you say and what you do appear, at this time, to be discordant, my friend.

I don't trade lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,022
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:16am Jan 6, 2014 9:16am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Okay, I am not trying to be a dick, and I do respect you and our conversation. But I have to press this. If you know, for a FACT, that you will win EIGHTY percent of the time, why are you risking only FIVE percent of your account? Why are you even working at ANYTHING other than trading? What you say and what you do appear, at this time, to be discordant, my friend.
Because he has a shitty reward risk ratio and after the day is over he still has a negative expectancy which, slowly, but will drain his cash.

It doesnt matter how much winrate you have if the RR associated with it is not good.The expectancy is the best tool to measure it.

I could make a 1 pipper with a 99% winrate, if the RR is 1 pip reward vs 1000 pip risk, then its bullshit, the expectancy will be negative = --9.01 a.k.a if each position size is 1€ then it loses on average 9€ after every trade...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,023
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:16am Jan 6, 2014 9:16am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Mark Fisher has stats on the opening range. You have stats on the daily range. Does that equate to being able to predict? This is a serious question, and yes, I am very much being the devil's advocate here.

yes indeed, mark fisher did write about ORB and yes I had my own stats for ORB and daily range
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,024
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:16am Jan 6, 2014 9:16am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes the pattern candles themselves can be randomly formed, but what comes after the candle is the key here.I dont care how my shooting star forms or why it forms, but i want that after the shooting star a bearish move to come. It doesnt matter how the stick itself forms, but it should contain information about the future price.A hanging man tells me that i have a 55% that after it, a bullish move will come. I analysed the market, it was objective so its not really a debate issue.
So you have stats that 55% of the time a hanging man will produce a bearish move?

Impressive.

Do you have stats on how many candles relative to the time frame that you are trading that this move will last?

Lastly, what is your sample size?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,025
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:19am Jan 6, 2014 9:19am
Quoting billytt
{quote} yes indeed, mark fisher did write about ORB and yes I had my own stats for ORB and daily range
It is nice to be having convo with a some veteran traders. Let me be clear.


So you have stats on the daily UK range of your pairs. Stats that can debunk the randomness theory?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,026
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:20am Jan 6, 2014 9:20am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I don't trade lol
That was not for you. That was for Turv. Sorry if there was a mix-up.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,027
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:21am Jan 6, 2014 9:21am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Okay, I am not trying to be a dick, and I do respect you and our conversation. But I have to press this. If you know, for a FACT, that you will win EIGHTY percent of the time, why are you risking only FIVE percent of your account? Why are you even working at ANYTHING other than trading? What you say and what you do appear, at this time, to be discordant, my friend.

Too much fear even at 5% I worry to much I'll take a loss, as to barely take many trades, I did move it upto 10% really bad on the pyschological side of things, so backed back off to 5% and doing fine.

I actually planned to quit, thought main client was going to lose there contract leaving me full time trader, if I liked it or not, wishing they would of. wouldn't be testing complicated math's like I should be at the moment.

They pay very well, and account is very small so I'm making many times more of working than I would trading.

Need to grow the account for a few months and get better at taking live trades, without fear.

It's never easy!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,028
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:25am Jan 6, 2014 9:25am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} So you have stats that 55% of the time a hanging man will produce a bearish move? Impressive. Do you have stats on how many candles relative to the time frame that you are trading that this move will last? Lastly, what is your sample size?
Yep i do.

I only tested it on the neighboring next candle, more than that no idea, the edge will decrease very quickly after that. I dont think it is a so long correlation, but nevertheless it has an edge so who cares.An inneficiency like that wont last for long, the market will return to equilibrium soon, so the fact that it can last 10 candles or 50 its just luck, but to talk about certainty and quantified results i only checked the next candle.

Sample size was a 20 year sized historical database on all timeframes starting from M1 up until H1, and i found in total more than 1.5 million hanging mans.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,029
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:28am Jan 6, 2014 9:28am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yep i do. I only tested it on the neighboring next candle, more than that no idea, the edge will decrease very quickly after that. I dont think it is a so long correlation, but nevertheless it has an edge so who cares.An inneficiency like that wont last for long, the market will return to equilibrium soon, so the fact that it can last 10 candles or 50 its just luck, but to talk about certainty and quantified results i only checked the next candle. Sample size was a 20 year sized historical database on all timeframes starting from M1 up until...

The next candle isn't really relevant as it could move 10pips! or 1 on M1.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,030
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:30am Jan 6, 2014 9:30am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is nice to be having convo with a some veteran traders. Let me be clear. So you have stats on the daily UK range of your pairs. Stats that can debunk the randomness theory?
I am trying to post a chart but having difficulty, e/j daily
I Have stats on my trading pc going back to January 2000 up until about 5 months ago 2013.
AGAIN I say the market is not random because people are moving it and next sentence it is random because people know something else, I do not mean profit taking that is expected but sometimes it moves a direction when every thing says it should not, that random
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,031
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:30am Jan 6, 2014 9:30am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} The next candle isn't really relevant as it could move 10pips! or 1 on M1.
I know, the expectancy was negative until M15, only after M15 it was good (i included the spread too).Because it would only scalp 1 candle its obvious that we need to scalp it on a high timeframe.So H1 was the best, i didnt tested it on higher than that because it was very rare in higher timeframes, but on H1 i still had sufficient data to draw a conclusion.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #1,032
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:33am Jan 6, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Too much fear even at 5% I worry to much I'll take a loss, as to barely take many trades, I did move it upto 10% really bad on the pyschological side of things, so backed back off to 5% and doing fine. I actually planned to quit, thought main client was going to lose there contract leaving me full time trader, if I liked it or not, wishing they would of. wouldn't be testing complicated math's like I should be at the moment. They pay very well, and account is very small so I'm making many times more of working than I would trading. Need to...
If you KNOW that you have an 80% win rate, I do not understand the psychological issue. You KNOW that you win 80% of the time just like you KNOW that fish swim in water, right?

What is so scary for you? Simply take you next paycheck,and dump it into your trading account. If you KNOW that you win 8 of your next 10 trades, then even if you take a haircut of 50% on your next two trades, you will have no worries. If you KNOW that you will win, I do not see what the problem is Turv.

But, maybe I do. Maybe you are not quite so sure that the market is not random, so you act prudently.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,033
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:36am Jan 6, 2014 9:36am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I am trying to post a chart but having difficulty, e/j daily I Have stats on my trading pc going back to January 2000 up until about 5 months ago 2013. AGAIN I say the market is not random because people are moving it and next sentence it is random because people know something else, I do not mean profit taking that is expected but sometimes it moves a direction when every thing says it should not, that random
Well, that is the point of this entire topic. People can be predicted, to a degree, but is that degree enough to eliminate randomness?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,034
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:37am Jan 6, 2014 9:37am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If you KNOW that you have an 80% win rate, I do not understand the psychological issue. You KNOW that you win 80% of the time just like you KNOW that fish swim in water, right? What is so scary for you? Simply take you next paycheck,and dump it into your trading account. If you KNOW that you win 8 of your next 10 trades, then even if you take a haircut of 50% on your next two trades, you will have no worries. If you KNOW that you will win, I do not see what the problem is Turv. But, maybe I do. Maybe you are not quite so sure that the market...

Sadly I agree 100% with that, and had client of lost contract and forced my hand, that was the plan.

Years of being beaten down and losing or breaking even recently, building confidence slowly.

Sadly Multitask badly!!


Back to my math's issue, Sin's and Cos's love em
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,035
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:39am Jan 6, 2014 9:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0601ib.PNG Size: 42 KB


one e/j daily chart going back to last September.
I have ringed the inside bars which hopefully went with the trend
I believe one was a loser.
This is a simple inside bar trade method and look at the outcome.
if I had stats to look at before the first September trade I would of had some information as to what size to use and exit levels OR when to keep quiet
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,036
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:45am Jan 6, 2014 9:45am
Quoting billytt
{image} one e/j daily chart going back to last September. I have ringed the inside bars which hopefully went with the trend I believe one was a loser. This is a simple inside bar trade method and look at the outcome. if I had stats to look at before the first September trade I would of had some information as to what size to use and exit levels OR when to keep quiet
Peter Crowns spoke about inside bars, so I understand where you are coming from.

But.......

You do not KNOW if that inside bar will be a winner or loser before hand, and your sample size is tiny. I will accept it for the sake of the discussion, however.

What stats ( you do not have be precise) did you have to say that you should go all in on an inside bar in trend?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,037
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:47am Jan 6, 2014 9:47am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Well, that is the point of this entire topic. People can be predicted, to a degree, but is that degree enough to eliminate randomness?
people make it random for what ever reason they want, normally to screw up an other countries economy.
every trader is going to suffer a loss, call this random or just a stupid trade, this is random in its self I did it enough times.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,038
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:49am Jan 6, 2014 9:49am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Peter Crowns spoke about inside bars, so I understand where you are coming from. But....... You do not KNOW if that inside bar will be a winner or loser before hand, and your sample size is tiny. I will accept it for the sake of the discussion, however. What stats ( you do not have be precise) did you have to say that you should go all in on an inside bar in trend?
do you refer sample size to that chart I posted or the 2000 period
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,039
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:49am Jan 6, 2014 9:49am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Sadly I agree 100% with that, and had client of lost contract and forced my hand, that was the plan. Years of being beaten down and losing or breaking even recently, building confidence slowly. Sadly Multitask badly!! Back to my math's issue, Sin's and Cos's love em
I presume you are an engineer. Lots of engineers in this business.

You should not be, or feel, beaten down. You have difficulty embracing randomness because it is not in your nature. Everything has a cause. Things flow logically, right?

Well, markets are made of humans, and to try to predict humans is hubris............IMHO
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,040
  • Jan 6, 2014 9:51am Jan 6, 2014 9:51am
i have took that assumption because when i was selling or buying any thing i needed a mediator or what you call a broker now and puting my self in his place gives me a chance of challengine the price he quoted me .it starts by taking a measure of many mediatores or brokers then i can make a view of how i can predict price after that i can quote my own price by studying how the differnce and in which circumstances has appeared .this all is bound to physic and mathmatiches lows so with physic and mathmetic we can predict .
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