AUD/USD

AU M5

Some flag type stuff with Aussie

my question was meant to be what is it going on with that oil haven't heard anything about it since that time.

Agree. Could be a bullish flag forming on the 15 minute

You can definitely make a case about the newspapers etc... I just don't like to counter trend nowadays in general... 7 / 10 times I will be wrong in timing, and the 2 times when I'm right, it's painfully slow to watch, and the move it makes catches me by a surprise at least from my experience. Simply put... Aud/Usd for me is penalty box till it proves otherwise. If AUD/USD moves to .9 would that make it bullish or another selling opportunity? What about 0.915? and how it moves there is also important.

This time around when Aud came down to test 88.5... and playing double bottom is completely fine, but know that there are many versions of a double bottom. AUD just failed at 97.5, which btw was the real trade. So knowing daily trend is down for the year of 2013. Given the oversold conditions and potential profit taking towards years end, and with good risk reward in execution, it's definitely a valid play, however know that it's not the best double play by any means. And by the looks of it, Aud gave you a good long to 89.5, not in 1 day, not 2 days, but 3 days in time. You literally had to buy the pair by intraday tactics the first day.... then it started to trickle lower and now range trading... If AUD really was strong, I would've liked to see 1 day spike from 88.5 to a close above .9. Then 2nd day hold above .9 and 3rd day we gun for .915. However it didn't do that... the pace was diminished by more selling pressure. I scalped twice along the way... a short at 895 and a long at 885, and now waiting. No need to make a big bet on this pair atm, there are better setups in other pairs.

It's entirely possible we start a slow rally from this point forward... but I want to see evidence and not predict at this point.

That's basically my thoughts on Aud.


Quickly going over gold... same thesis... when it broke below 1540.. all bets are off on the long side. However... if gold trades to 1300 from 1200, are we back in bullish trend or another selling opportunity?

For me... I would much like to started accumulation between 900 - 1100.

I don't really use any indicators, but this is when moving avgs are sort of helpful... right now... it's below all moving averages on the weekly and daily which indicates trend, so until something changes... i'd rather miss the first move of the long then get caught on the wrong side 7 / 10 times.

im going short @0.8980
the market seems to be overbought at the moment.
[email protected]

id wait for a sign of a trend reversal first, but really this look like a winning trade with a tight sl at 1.8995 tp at least 60 pips downside for easy money.
still searching on the internet why this spike...

there are rumors that some large institutions are going after depressed Australian bonds

how does this relate to audusd?

up buddy, look like well go to 1.9025 - 1.9050 area before falling / close to 61.8 fibo.

If i need to buy say $200 million to $300 million of australian bonds that is not denominated in Euros or USD they would have to buy AUD to purchase this asset class. The fund or institution may be foreign eg US or European and may not have the local currency of the countrys bonds and would most likely put in an order to a bank for Aussie dollars, buying AUD and selling USD is of course the ideal way to go. This order flow through banks is what may move the currency spike. I know I used 200 million example but what of if its a billion dollars.

will you buy it now? if yes where does stops need to go?

in my opinion, no, pls dont buy aussie, looking higher for a place to sell.

bullish momentum fading in short term possibly ... 8950 before >9000?

Its clearly reversed

If your not bullish I wouldn't consider selling until .9170 which coincides with strong resistance and the .61 fib

and you can probably get some action off of .9070

Might be the Chinese buying up Aussie properties or Aussie Gold before the Chinese New Year.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't be buying AUD because I won't forget that RBA wants 85.
Unless, RBA stands out and change their stand.

Oh i never gave the assumption to go long , I was just answering acidguys question about "still searching on the internet why this spike..." thats all

reentered long .8940

massive hidden div on one hour

bounce off resistance turned support

plus the carry over the weekend

that 0.85 though with a lot of struggle, will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, just as USD/JPY for a 100

I have no doubt that it will get to 0.85 by 2014. When a central bank makes a statement in public like that you can be sure it will happen. Just like when the Swiss said the did not want the CHF to be overvalued because it was hurting exports, they came out and said they would flood the market with as much money as it took to bring the CHF down.