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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #881
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:53am Jan 2, 2014 7:53am
Quoting jmn5611
I pissed off the tah'ers by telling them that averaging down is going to blow them up, and surely enough, it did. It all starts to unravel on them from 9/10 through 9/18 when those morons averaged non-stop into a raging bull trend based on some fictional construct called PVSRA, which tah lifted almost directly from VSA. So, I tried to warn them that their guru was going to get them killed......we know how that went. So the beginning of the end started here for them. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...4792&page=2936...

Got to hate guru's,

Averaging down, with the trend is okay, if you have a plan and a way to define the trend accurately enough and an exit plan ofcourse, without it's suicide!

Never hold a position against the trend!!

I'm a M1 guy who hates BS, so reading candle stick patterns of all kinds and trying to trade off them, many disagree and ignore me, hopefully 1 or 2 will get it and be helped so it's all good. ( same to FIB Lines, and 90% of indicators )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #882
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:54am Jan 2, 2014 7:54am
Rough sex is always nice. Kiss and make up.
  • #883
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:55am Jan 2, 2014 7:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} you were weren't the only one.......

Too many big words for me to
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #884
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:57am Jan 2, 2014 7:57am
Quoting 21vs7
Rough sex is always nice. Kiss and make up.

Prefer rough, angry, revenge sex, but it'll do!!


Don't see my 2014 year odd woman, going so well LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #885
  • Jan 2, 2014 8:01am Jan 2, 2014 8:01am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Prefer rough, angry, revenge sex, but it'll do!! Don't see my 2014 year odd woman, going so well LOL
hahaaha
But come to think of it.. Sex is really overrated. So with proper daily trading experiance, everything is on a track and back to normal.
  • #886
  • Jan 2, 2014 8:07am Jan 2, 2014 8:07am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} hahaaha But come to think of it.. Sex is really overrated. So with proper daily trading experiance, everything is on a track and back to normal.
OFF Woman, not ODD woman, although ODD woman is actually quite accurate.

It is, but strangely addictive.

Method yes, energy seriously lacking LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #887
  • Jan 2, 2014 8:49am Jan 2, 2014 8:49am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} ...my 21 cents and 7 big bucks..randomlesssss 1...on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Justification: statistics. I would argue to say market efficiency, not inefficiency when stat is in the game. Or whatever. 2...Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? Statistics. Stats. Stats....

Perhaps I do add to this.

..why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

If I wouldnt accept this, I would not be prepared to play this game in the first place I guess But, Im thinking all goes and ends in statistics and probability. At least this is where Im seeing oppurtunity and real edge after one has its own strategy in place..plus, with this attitude one plays it as a business.

Secondly, Im not a mathematician and surely have seen at least 5-10 guys on FF which are talking higher math constantly and with my knowledge just cant get near their views. I try..

But as investor and trader I can say, I need no risk on the table, when there is no need for it.

Cus I am semi-disciplined fook manually, I knew that for proper trading PL I need to try to programme EA that does all of my strategy to the fooking point. No need for me to think what is going on, no need to have a thinking cap on, and not trusting the strategy. Just let it run and see whats happening in reality.
If one is disciplined enough, one could play their own strategy also manually and get results.

Thirdly. Whatever the strategy, One needs to get into reading the results.
Of course with a reasonable RR (at around 1:1 and higher), otherwizze it wouldnt make sense, for me % winings is everything!

So, every strategy which is out of the world and at first glance wrong, needs to be tested and needs to bring some results. Everything over 70% winnings is a perfect play over the course of 3-9 months and over the course of 300+ trades. Why this numbers? I dont know, It just gives me confidence with my system.

With building up strategies one could try to play different kinds of directions when programming is in play. One could have several ideas in place and really explore differences.

As I dont have programming knowledge I had to build a team and we went for it. Its really interesting stuff and we are and should be proud of what we achieved.

But I have to stress this one more time, one does not have a system and a strategy if one dont have statistics, probability done.
  • #888
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:36am Jan 2, 2014 9:36am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} But I have to stress this one more time, one does not have a system and a strategy if one dont have statistics, probability done.

Correct, without you are just gambling plain as!!

But at the same time, don't do a Proximus and get confused in the math's
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #889
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:47am Jan 2, 2014 9:47am
Hi guys, hope your all good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #890
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:53am Jan 2, 2014 9:53am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Perhaps I do add to this. ..why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? If I wouldnt accept this, I would not be prepared to play this game in the first place I guess But, Im thinking all goes and ends in statistics and probability. At least this is where Im seeing oppurtunity and real edge after one has its own strategy in place..plus, with this attitude one plays it as a business. Secondly, Im not a mathematician and surely have seen at least 5-10 guys on FF which are talking higher math constantly and with my knowledge...
well said bud, some people are far too clever to trade,,, statistics and percentages are the way.
I have very little knowledge on how forex market works and my ability to speak about forex can be marked about 4 out of 10.. I am a self confessed muppet (before anyone else says so) BUT I can trade well or did,, now retired from full blown trading.
OOPS nearly forgot I did 2 small trades today testing an idea and they went well, I can post details later if need be, they were going off stats though..
erm erm I cannot comment on rough sex lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #891
  • Jan 2, 2014 10:03am Jan 2, 2014 10:03am
Quoting Jasus
Markets aren't a random walk. Absolute returns and power-returns (returns squared, cubed, etc...) show long-term memory, and I mean really long-term. This is taken from M15 data of EUR/USD since 2007 to 2013: Autocorrelation functions of absolute returns and returns squared, respectively. {image} {image} There is also volatility and volume clustering. ACF of bar spread (High-Low) {image} Returns don't follow a normal distribution, they have heavy-tails. QQ plot of returns {image} No random-walk would show any of these patterns. Markets aren't very...
Returns squared I get it. You predict the volatility. But how do you exploit the absolute value of the returns?
Knowing the magnitude but not the direction doesn't seem to help a trading decision.
Also 100000 lags aren't easy to fit.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #892
  • Jan 2, 2014 10:20am Jan 2, 2014 10:20am
Quoting GDR3k
euraud prediction has come in, eurusd still open. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7181894 {image} {image} {image} {image}

Presuming EU failed ??

Holding over a holiday and into new year, accounts wise is never good though, so I'll let you off this once, but never lose a trade again!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #893
  • Edited 12:56pm Jan 2, 2014 11:52am | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting the redlion
I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing of certain assets, if in...
I've stated in a previous post that I don't subscribe to the "price-predictability assumption". Im a firm believer in the "Auction Market Process." I cant say that "Random Walk" is incorrect, because I don't have a clue. Never thought to study it, and dont care to. I can just share from a AMT perspective & practice that it doesn't fall in line with AMT "principles". I admit I dont have a clue about the random walk process, but I do know alittle about the Auction Process......................


A Practice is a proposed analysis method. If permitted by market theory, it is an approved or permitted practice, and may safely be used in market analysis and trading. A non-permitted practice is outside the bounds of theory and is not recommended for use in market analysis

An example of a Non-permitted Practice, Efficient Markets:
It has been widely proposed that markets are efficient (any new information is immediately reflected in the price). This practice is invalidated by theory. Here's why: Markets are driven by feedback, therefore new information comes in at the feedback rate. Imagine that a given trader has new information and acts on it. That activity shows up on all trader's screens, say as an increase in price. Some buy on the news, some sell and some do nothing. It takes a different amount of time for each trader to decide. After some time (typically five to thirty minutes) the new information is assimilated and the market stops reacting to it. This shows market self organization at work, adjusting to the new situation. Feedback cannot take place instantly, so theory shows that efficient market concepts are invalid in auction markets. In plain english, even if a valid change in the value takes place instantly, the trader population cannot get the information, evaluate it and act on it instantly.

This is just a "Muppets" opinion.....................for what it's worth......... BS
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #894
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:46pm Jan 2, 2014 1:46pm
what's difference from a outlet mall to a FX market?

fundamentally, no, because both are simply a market place that people coming together to do exchange at a negotiated price

usually, normal hours, tom goes to GAP, and jerry goes to Old Navy, and you have no clue why or when they do that. ---- okay, nobody knows, or almost nobody knows, and it doesn't hurt.

sometimes, GAP put a liquidation sale everything 70% off, a big portion of visitors come to GAP. if the sale is said to last 1 week, you might bet that you'll see more visitors on 2nd, 3rd, 4th days too!

on thanksgiving, if BestBuy has 80" LED TV for 200$ this black friday, you'll guess there'll be more visitors going to BB than Fry's

or let me put you into 'god of the mall', in that mode, you oversee all visitors entering / exiting the mall from the roof. you'd say, from high upthere, what a mess! i can't tell where and when these 'ants' are going to.

however, if a fire alarm rings, and you can expect all customers will flood out to every exits of the outlet mall.

the mall example is really from what I learned in the past (online trading academy?). and you see, with some conditions, you can predict the market behavior since it is just a collection of human behavior.

it is also exactly due to the simple observations above, one tends to fail (99%) to mathematically model the complete "mall behavior".

an easier way to deal with market, is to find those 'conditions' and use those 'conditions' to your advantage (hence, edge). you said you can only find the fire alarm useful, then you suck at finding conditions and you should work hard to find more of them.
  • #895
  • Jan 2, 2014 5:43pm Jan 2, 2014 5:43pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I've stated in a previous post that I don't subscribe to the "price-predictability assumption". Im a firm believer in the "Auction Market Process." I cant say that "Random Walk" is incorrect, because I don't have a clue. Never thought to study it, and dont care to. I can just share from a AMT perspective & practice that it doesn't fall in line with AMT "principles". I admit I dont have a clue about the random walk process, but I do know alittle about the Auction Process...................... A Practice is a proposed analysis method. If permitted...
I like your analysis. In post #11 of this thread, I posted a chart of the AUD/USD showing what happened when the IMF and the BOA both announced that the AUD was over-valued by 10% (it's interesting to note that after several months in the de-valuation process, they both announced again that the AUD was still over-valued by 10%, which makes you wonder just how over-valued it is/was?). After the announcement, the AUD began a multi-month de-valuation process. It did not happen all at once, as you might expect in an efficient market. In this example, the AUD de-valuation process was completely controlled by the BOA, which managed the process to ensure an orderly de-valuation. Every day there are examples that are similar to the AUD situation, if not as dramatic (like, today). Currency valuation occurs through a set of processes, and as AMT provides a good narrative of these processes, it makes AMT study appealing. Currency valuation is not an event. If it were, we'd be forced back to the gold standard (please, no one run off on a tangent about the gold standard from this comment!).
  • #896
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:12pm Jan 2, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I like your analysis. In post #11 of this thread, I posted a chart of the AUD/USD showing what happened when the IMF and the BOA both announced that the AUD was over-valued by 10% (it's interesting to note that after several months in the de-valuation process, they both announced again that the AUD was still over-valued by 10%, which makes you wonder just how over-valued it is/was?). After the announcement, the AUD began a multi-month de-valuation process. It did not happen all at once, as you might expect in an efficient market. In this...
Hi. So your prediction is a/u is going to drop. a/u has been dropping since May 2011. Lots of signs too
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #897
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:46pm Jan 2, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I like your analysis. In post #11 of this thread, I posted a chart of the AUD/USD showing what happened when the IMF and the BOA both announced that the AUD was over-valued by 10% (it's interesting to note that after several months in the de-valuation process, they both announced again that the AUD was still over-valued by 10%, which makes you wonder just how over-valued it is/was?). After the announcement, the AUD began a multi-month de-valuation process. It did not happen all at once, as you might expect in an efficient market. In this...

The news, just made buyers more weary and and sellers more confident, so it caused an inbalance and down she went.

Ofcourse if you look at a W1 chart. its up from 0.5000 area in 2001 and still technically in a uptrend, although 20% off it's highs, not that I trade this way.

I'm sure you can find such new statements the pairs moved the opposite way though, which makes it tricky!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #898
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:53pm Jan 2, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} The news, just made buyers more weary and and sellers more confident, so it caused an inbalance and down she went. Ofcourse if you look at a W1 chart. its up from 0.5000 area in 2001 and still technically in a uptrend, although 20% off it's highs, not that I trade this way. I'm sure you can find such new statements the pairs moved the opposite way though, which makes it tricky!!
Hi bud. I was just making a comment. How many advisors say this n that. Some real news but alas some obvious. You ought to be asleep
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #899
  • Jan 2, 2014 8:02pm Jan 2, 2014 8:02pm
Actually a/u looks rather tastey from what I can see on mobile. South bound.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #900
  • Jan 2, 2014 9:04pm Jan 2, 2014 9:04pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi. So your prediction is a/u is going to drop. a/u has been dropping since May 2011. Lots of signs too

No, that is completely off the point I was making. Nor was I predicting anything.
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