why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 44 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #861
  • Jan 1, 2014 5:27pm Jan 1, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} That number used to be higher, but some people have since redeemed themselves. I'll usually read most hidden posts once just so I have an idea of where thread conversations have been, hence why I still suffer your posts. After that I no longer have to subject myself repeatedly to terrible posts by terrible posters when I refresh a thread. You are welcome to waste time reading shitty posts by talking-heads. I'd rather filter the noise. My time is more valuable than that.

I only stick to 1 thread or 2 of vague interest, so not a huge time waster, normally only weekends or when really bored.


Talking heads, need slaying, before they spread BS to newbies and ruin there chances of ever making it, we where all newbies at 1 stage.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #862
  • Jan 1, 2014 5:55pm Jan 1, 2014 5:55pm
I was sort of wondering how we got to talking about spreads. I missed what they have to do with price predictability.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #863
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:22pm Jan 1, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting jmn5611
I was sort of wondering how we got to talking about spreads. I missed what they have to do with price predictability.

Proximus claimed he uses Spread Size / Flucuations to PREDICT the market, Newbies hey, posing as Pro's!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #864
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:25pm Jan 1, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting GDR3k
euraud prediction has come in, eurusd still open. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7181894 {image} {image} {image} {image}
You mean order has filled right ? hasn't hit your TP has it ??

Market open to you ?? Mine doesn't open till 7am tomorrow, I got ZERO feed
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #865
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:31pm Jan 1, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Proximus claimed he uses Spread Size / Flucuations to PREDICT the market, Newbies hey, posing as Pro's!!
Gotta admit, I never heard of that one. I always thought spreads were a marker of liquidity. Maybe Prox means that if he sees direction and spreads tighten down then he believes that the current direction will continue.

The only problem with that is maybe traders believe that the direction is overextended and now traders have come in to reverse the current direction. How can we know?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #866
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:38pm Jan 1, 2014 6:38pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Gotta admit, I never heard of that one. I always thought spreads were a marker of liquidity. Maybe Prox means that if he sees direction and spreads tighten down then he believes that the current direction will continue. The only problem with that is maybe traders believe that the direction is overextended and now traders have come in to reverse the current direction. How can we know?

I thought you read it, I copied and bolded out the bits relevant days ago.

Not only does he not understand that wider spreads have less participants not more, but he was using them to some how predict, then made the snide comment...

" if your not using Spread Size to predict the markets, then your not that good a trader " LOL

When it isn't even a real thing, so we all suck
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #867
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:40pm Jan 1, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} While everything you say here is true, I fail to understand what the topic of broker spreads has to do with the threads topic. I think you've been sucked into a discussion that is off topic and irrelevant to what red is asking. I don't have a problem with your writing style, and hope you continue posting here, once it gets back on topic.
I thought that was understood
Quoting mzvega
I apologize if I’m off base. One minute I read this thread & I think I’ve got a grasp on the topic and then the next minute, I don’t think I have a clue. The thread asked why have I accepted the price –predictability assumption? I haven’t, my school of thought is all about trading “probabilities”& “discresionary” trading . Probabilities & predictability imo are two very different animals……….imho, I don’t think you can “automated” the discresionary thought process……..
Again, I apologize if I’m off base………
I never thought it did……I explained to him that I didn’t subscribe to that “school of thought”. I only responded to the first words of a post that said "off topic".........and apparently what I said is not true, and seen as spreading BS.......

I dont even subscribe to the "school thought" of this thread, there is nothing I can possibly contribute here. But thank you I appreciate your kind words.......
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #868
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:45pm Jan 1, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I thought you read it, I copied and bolded out the bits relevant days ago. Not only does he not understand that wider spreads have less participants not more, but he was using them to some how predict, then made the snide comment... " if your not using Spread Size to predict the markets, then your not that good a trader " LOL When it isn't even a real thing, so we all suck
Oh yes, that. You will have to forgive me Turveyd, I am up in age and my memory is not that good. That was worth a good chuckle, there!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #869
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:47pm Jan 1, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I thought that was understood {quote} I never thought it did……I explained to him that I didn’t subscribe to that “school of thought”. I only responded to the first words of a post that said "off topic".........and apparently what I said is not true, and seen as spreading BS....... I dont even subscribe to the "school thought" of this thread, there is nothing I can possibly contribute here. But thank you I appreciate your kind words.......
mzvega, some people can be aggressive in their style of posting, don't take it personally. Any discussion is a good discussion in my book.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #870
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:47pm Jan 1, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Oh yes, that. You will have to forgive me Turveyd, I am up in age and my memory is not that good. That was worth a good chuckle, there!

Got to ignore any Stat's which came from him hey!! LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #871
  • Jan 1, 2014 6:50pm Jan 1, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You mean order has filled right ? hasn't hit your TP has it ?? Market open to you ?? Mine doesn't open till 7am tomorrow, I got ZERO feed
Oanda opened with Wellington. Current spreads- 1.7 pips E/U
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #872
  • Jan 1, 2014 7:07pm Jan 1, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I thought that was understood {quote} I never thought it did……I explained to him that I didn’t subscribe to that “school of thought”. I only responded to the first words of a post that said "off topic".........and apparently what I said is not true, and seen as spreading BS....... I dont even subscribe to the "school thought" of this thread, there is nothing I can possibly contribute here. But thank you I appreciate your kind words.......
Yes, I understand your points. Unfortunately, this thread tends to wander off course. Time to move on. Good trading to you and I look forward to reading more of your posts on auction market.
  • #873
  • Jan 1, 2014 7:09pm Jan 1, 2014 7:09pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yes, I understand your points. Unfortunately, this thread tends to wander off course. Time to move on. Good trading to you and I look forward to reading more of your posts on auction market.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #874
  • Jan 1, 2014 7:25pm Jan 1, 2014 7:25pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} NO, The spread is your bid / ask + broker fee, generally your broker fee is fixed, mine definately is. The BID is the highest Limit order on the system to buy a position ( ecn brokers ) ASK seller limit order. Spread widen when there are less traders around, it creates a bigger void nothing more,like late at night or before news when there aren't many orders. Nothing more. You have been taught wrongly about the effect of Volume, accept this and learn, forget everything you've learned it's wrong, start again and stop teaching other newbies...
Ok then, i will read more about spread, i had a total different view on it.I didnt really started observing it until past week so i`m sorry if i made a mistake.

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Proximus claimed he uses Spread Size / Flucuations to PREDICT the market, Newbies hey, posing as Pro's!!
Not really.My words were not exactly like this.I acutally said or atleast tried to say that i READ the market by that.Wait until spread tightens and then trade by using an EA,because manually its impossible.And i`m not a newbie, i`m in this stuff for more then 2 years now.

Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Gotta admit, I never heard of that one. I always thought spreads were a marker of liquidity. Maybe Prox means that if he sees direction and spreads tighten down then he believes that the current direction will continue. The only problem with that is maybe traders believe that the direction is overextended and now traders have come in to reverse the current direction. How can we know?
Not necessarly, my direction of trade is based on other criteria, but nontheless the primary criteria is the tightness of the spread.

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} 91 on your ignore list, how long before every member of FF is on there, you have to admit, he's completely MAD!!
Not that much i`ve seen guys here with 200 and 300 people on ignore list, including you and jmn5611 on their list, so its really irrelevant to see who ignores who.I`ve never seen a single celebrity without a haters mocking him aswell as fans.We just have to embrace it haters will always exist

--------------------------

Anyway so whats this big turmoil about my ideas, ok i admit i made a mistake, so what, you corrected me and i`m gladful to that, now its time to move on.Yet what i see is 3 pages later you guys are still trolling about this...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #875
  • Jan 1, 2014 7:59pm Jan 1, 2014 7:59pm
I pissed off the tah'ers by telling them that averaging down is going to blow them up, and surely enough, it did.

It all starts to unravel on them from 9/10 through 9/18 when those morons averaged non-stop into a raging bull trend based on some fictional construct called PVSRA, which tah lifted almost directly from VSA. So, I tried to warn them that their guru was going to get them killed......we know how that went. So the beginning of the end started here for them.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...4792&page=2936

Very instructive reading, and a cautionary tale. They averaged down and down, saying, it will come back. But as is appropriate to this thread, eventually came too late for most of them.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...4792&page=2971. That is where most my ignores came from, and also most of my vouches for saying what every veteran trader was already thinking.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #876
  • Jan 1, 2014 8:35pm Jan 1, 2014 8:35pm
Markets aren't a random walk. Absolute returns and power-returns (returns squared, cubed, etc...) show long-term memory, and I mean really long-term. This is taken from M15 data of EUR/USD since 2007 to 2013:

Autocorrelation functions of absolute returns and returns squared, respectively.
Attached Image

Attached Image


There is also volatility and volume clustering.

ACF of bar spread (High-Low)
Attached Image


Returns don't follow a normal distribution, they have heavy-tails.

QQ plot of returns
Attached Image


No random-walk would show any of these patterns. Markets aren't very different in this sense, because all of them follow these patters, whether it's stocks, bonds, forex, etc...

This is a very interesting paper, that explores the non-linearity of financial markets. It argues that the market is basically different types of traders competing with each other (technical traders, fundamentalist traders, etc...) and it builds a model from there. Chaos emerges from that model, and it fits the autocorrelations of the above functions and volatility clustering.
  • #877
  • Jan 2, 2014 1:37am Jan 2, 2014 1:37am
Quoting Jasus
Markets aren't a random walk. Absolute returns and power-returns (returns squared, cubed, etc...) show long-term memory, and I mean really long-term. This is taken from M15 data of EUR/USD since 2007 to 2013: Autocorrelation functions of absolute returns and returns squared, respectively. {image} {image} There is also volatility and volume clustering. ACF of bar spread (High-Low) {image} Returns don't follow a normal distribution, they have heavy-tails. QQ plot of returns {image} No random-walk would show any of these patterns. Markets aren't very...

Scratches head
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #878
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:16am Jan 2, 2014 2:16am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Scratches head
you were weren't the only one.......
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #879
  • Jan 2, 2014 2:35am Jan 2, 2014 2:35am
Quoting billytt
{image}{image} {quote} Magix, I couldn't just post a chart so I stuck it here but , I just had a quick look at the e/u hour chart... A = tops B = bottom C = 200 day ema D = indecision but still a level E = high but I would never touch it my main trading pc is not running up to date so I cannot answer some questions but I would expect the e/u to drop to the 200 day ema and bounce, if I had my stats I could give a better prediction. one thing for sure is that A or B will be hit or both and this can be traded if you know how sorry about this but I...

Well e/u hit the 200 ema and didn't bounce but every thing else went to plan, not a major prediction but you can see were I was going
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 020114.PNG Size: 40 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #880
  • Jan 2, 2014 7:50am Jan 2, 2014 7:50am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok then, i will read more about spread, i had a total different view on it.I didnt really started observing it until past week so i`m sorry if i made a mistake. {quote} Not really.My words were not exactly like this.I acutally said or atleast tried to say that i READ the market by that.Wait until spread tightens and then trade by using an EA,because manually its impossible.And i`m not a newbie, i`m in this stuff for more then 2 years now. {quote} Not necessarly, my direction of trade is based on other criteria, but nontheless the primary...

A sorry, amazed!! Sorry to stupid and pretentious attitudes remind me of my Ex to much and is like a waving flag to a bull!!

Only using Spread tightening for a week and already got a EA to exploit it ?? warning flags waving again LOL

Accept some times, you've been taught stuff which is wrong ( sometimes we will be wrong ofcourse )

I don't check peoples ignore lists often to be honest, I'm a marmite man, you either luv me or hate me, no inbetweeny trying to keep everyone happy kinda guy.


Consider it closed for me, no trolling intended!!

Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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