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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #801
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:59am Dec 31, 2013 10:59am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Ignoring the USDJPY chart as that target level has now been hit. On the EUR charts basically I predict the market will hit the very top line with the arrow pointing to it before it hits the bottom line which is situated under the swing low.

So order to go long, 1.3720 not hit yet, you expect a dip to new lows and back upto the arrow, got it.

Where is the SL for that sucker ??


2mins before the market closes, so not today mate
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #802
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:01am Dec 31, 2013 11:01am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Ofcourse you don't use SL's that's why you are avoiding that question! Your charts show no actual logic or trade sense, you might aswell flip a coin, but there is no SL so you'll get to 2 pips profit and bag it sooner or later, while taking huge risks to make 2pips, so no wonder your win rate is so high, but ultimately doomed. Sorry working and playing games all day, I'll leave you to digging your own hole first!

Well turdy...

It's like this.

I stood up to your challenge, you backed down and failed to show anything.

I have provided proof of my statements...you've provided nothing.

I don't believe I have anything to offer on the subject, so I will let you troll the thread, with your nothingness. I will move along.

Thanks for letting me use your soapbox Red.

Happy New Year!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #803
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:03am Dec 31, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So order to go long, 1.3720 not hit yet, you expect a dip to new lows and back upto the arrow, got it. Where is the SL for that sucker ?? 2mins before the market closes, so not today mate
That bottom line at 3720 would be the stop loss, I meant the market from its current price (the middle line with the arrow) will hit the top line with the arrow pointing to it before it hits the very bottom line
  • #804
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:09am Dec 31, 2013 11:09am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} That bottom line at 3720 would be the stop loss, I meant the market from its current price (the middle line with the arrow) will hit the top line with the arrow pointing to it before it hits the very bottom line

Quite a week day on EU compared to everything else though, so we'll see!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #805
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:13am Dec 31, 2013 11:13am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Well turdy... It's like this. I stood up to your challenge, you backed down and failed to show anything. I have provided proof of my statements...you've provided nothing. I don't believe I have anything to offer on the subject, so I will let you troll the thread, with your nothingness. I will move along. Thanks for letting me use your soapbox Red. Happy New Year!

The challenge required SL's, you have no SL's so we have no way to establish win / losers or a R:R ratio, get it ??

Seriously, who trades without SL's ??

And I assumed I was on ignore you was having a hissy fit being the drama queen you are, and not taking part.



p.s. it actually wasn't / isn't a challenge, if was a way for all to forward test idea's using live trades to all, not you specifically, so your acting like I stole your barbie doll because ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #806
  • Dec 31, 2013 12:08pm Dec 31, 2013 12:08pm
Quoting GEfx
There is no certainty about where price is going. .......
Very good summary.
For whatever my opinion (and findings) are worth, I totally agree.

@everybody: Happy New Year, folks. Wishing y'all many pips in 2014.
  • #807
  • Dec 31, 2013 12:33pm Dec 31, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I agree. But before we can do that, we have to agree what it is we are actually doing. I really don't have any setups because I am a millipeder, and one who believes the market is random at the retail level. So far, no one has shown otherwise. My argument is this: If the market was non-random then a trader should be able to eliminate MM. Obviously, no one can, because no one really and truly knows where price is going.

So your argument is that because we can't precisely predict the exact future, we can't predict at all?

I really think the best analogy for the randomness / predictability of markets is the weather. Much like markets, we can't exactly predict the weather, but based on previous patterns and what somewhat limited information we know about weather systems, we can generally get a pretty good idea of what will happen over the next 5 days. But at the same time, because there are so many variables which we could not possibly track, slight changes to these variables (which we can't track) can cause dramatic differences in the end result, causing our predictions to be wrong. But I'm pretty sure when rain is in the forecast, nobody just says "well weather is random and we can't be entirely sure that it will rain, so I'm not bringing an umbrella" because that would be silly.

And again, like meteorologists, no matter how good of a trader you are, no matter how good of a fundamental analyst you are, no matter how good of a technical analyst you are, no matter how good of a behavioral analyst you are, you will never be able to make a 100% confident 100% correct prediction on what the markets will do, because you will never have complete information.

Consider the theoretical scenario where you have absolute information on what drives the markets (including all technical, fundamental, and behavioral information) except for what one single person in the world will do. All given information points to continued bull markets. But that one single person whose actions you did not know, decides to walk into the NYSE floor and start shooting. Markets get spooked temporarily, causing losses. Those losses trigger stops, causing more losses. Increased losses cause minor panic about the market dropping, leading to protective selling. Protective selling leads to more fear as the markets continue to drop, which in turn creates a bear market.

THAT is chaos, and THAT is why you will never be able to perfectly predict the markets. I have a lot of respect for Elliot Wave analysts, I think MTF pattern/wave analysis is hugely beneficial, but the one thing I think many Ellioticians (at least the likes of Prechter, et al.) tend to get wrong is they get married to their predictions; they believe too strongly in the predictive power of waves, and don't seem to want to accept the idea that even if there analysis was correct at one point in time, things change; input change; conditions change. You must always be willing to accept that your prediction may not be right (in direction/time/magnitude) and be flexible enough to deal with that likelihood.

“Hubris calls for nemesis, and in one form or another it's going to get it, not as a punishment from outside but as the completion of a pattern already started.”



Happy New Year and best of luck in 2014
  • #808
  • Dec 31, 2013 12:36pm Dec 31, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting GDR3k
I want a packet of chocolate chip cookies if my two EUR predictions come in. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post7181894
I just realised you posted a few different charts earlier. anyway I will stick with u/j it did drop 14 pips I believe (I said about 20) but then again it could of been 40 and so far moved up 30 pips of the 100 lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #809
  • Dec 31, 2013 12:39pm Dec 31, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Ignoring the USDJPY chart as that target level has now been hit. On the EUR charts basically I predict the market will hit the very top line with the arrow pointing to it before it hits the bottom line which is situated under the swing low.
I just seen this post, noooooooooooooo target is 10600 lol. was going to say something else just in case it doesnt
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #810
  • Edited 1:08pm Dec 31, 2013 12:44pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} So your argument is that because we can't precisely predict the exact future, we can't predict at all? I really think the best analogy for the randomness / predictability of markets is the weather. Much like markets, we can't exactly predict the weather, but based on previous patterns and what somewhat limited information we know about weather systems, we can generally get a pretty good idea of what will happen over the next 5 days. But at the same time, because there are so many variables which we could not possibly track, slight changes...
you got it right, well said. even down to Elliot wave folk. One good thing I relied on when trading was,,,WHAT TO DO when a trade failed.. or back up plan

I guess that is more predictive lol...
Anyway ALL THE BEST FOR 2014 GUYS N GALS....
If I come back I might start up my old trading pc and maybe start scalping just to add input, but keep the prediction talk going
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #811
  • Dec 31, 2013 2:00pm Dec 31, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Very good summary. For whatever my opinion (and findings) are worth, I totally agree. @everybody: Happy New Year, folks. Wishing y'all many pips in 2014.
Thanks Hanover, and Happy New Year. Good trading in 2014!
  • #812
  • Edited 6:41pm Dec 31, 2013 3:32pm | Edited 6:41pm
Price is largely unpredictable with narrow zones (time) where it turns predictable. There are three type of market participants.

1) Winners - who have figured out a way to place trades in those narrow time periods
2) Losers - Who think that markets are homogeneously predictable/unpredictable all the time and therefore place trade without first identifying when the price pattern is predictable and when it is not
3) Observers - who treat market data just like the losers - instead of making the mistake of placing actual trades they do their mathematical analysis on the entire dataset - and find that the market is not predictable which is absolutely true because unpredictability swamps the predictability signal in their analysis. However, they are smart enough not to trade because they cannot justify their action in the light of overwhelming evidence that market is random most of the time.
The price will go where it has to go.
  • #813
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:07pm Dec 31, 2013 6:07pm
How about a "state of aggregation" indicator? It occurred to me that in the case of water, in the form of ice, the predictability of "where it is and where it is going" is practically 1, whereas in a gaseous state, it is much smaller. In the liquid form, it depends, since water flows, drips, etc. and so is in between. If we could come up with a rough indication whether the market is solid, liquid or gaseous, this would help with the probability of the prediction.
Like a Celcius scale: < 0: ice, 0<100: liquid, > 100 gas. Sometimes the market goes crazy like gas particles, sometimes it seems frozen.

Then apply thermodynamics ( P*V = C*T): augmentation of pressure, or temperature, as well a decrease in volume, would have the same effect, in this case, increase in kinetic energy for the system -> more gaseous, so less predictable; and the other way around. It is not so hard to intuitively get an idea what heat is in the market, or pressure, or volume. It seems to me the reaction is the same as in a particle system.
  • #814
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:31pm Dec 31, 2013 6:31pm
Happy New Year to all the participants in this very interesting discussion!!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #815
  • Dec 31, 2013 9:08pm Dec 31, 2013 9:08pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Proximus, no offence but I thought you were a lot brighter than that.. Spread drops when not much is happening it is solely to lure people, It happens every day not just holidays. I have traded holidays in the past and Mondays and Fridays but you will find the big boys normally leave these times alone. yes the markets do move on these days and it is fun to trade but I don't think one should have a method where the spread can reak havoc, Trade well and all the best for 2014
I know spread is sized according to volume = number of ticks / time

But i dont know how it was so low even if the market moves normally.Ok except the last days of 2013, but between x-mas and last day it moved pretty much normally, with good volume, maybe some people didnt traded them, but i pointed out earlier that speculators make up only ~15% of the market.So the volume was ok in my point of view, but the spread did got pretty low.

So i can only explain this by how you said it that the brokers lure the people to trade

Quoting Ozzie Taz
Wow Proximus, your all over the net asking about spreads...
Yeah its kind of important issue because my system is very spread-sensitive, and i dont know that i should count in the data on holidays or just dismiss them because it will distort the forward tests.

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So Proximus who believes the market to be random, is talking about predicting the market, then predicting the spread like it has meaning, only scalpers care about the spread, so he's a scalper. Then to top it off, claiming that unless you use spread prediction, you can't be trading well, implying he is a good trader lol He doesn't even understand the basics ffs. This is why people fall out with me, they hate it when I call them on there BS.


I dont know what that has to do with my post ? I already told like a million times now:

Unpredictability is not equivalent to randomness!

And so if i`m predicting or atleast using past analysed data to assume a theory about how they will repeat themselves.Pattern trading in other words, is very crucial, just think about it, the spread fluctuation inside a pattern can be very significant, if you enter for example on a doji you may enter on a smaller spread then if you enter in a long candle, even if both make up the same pattern.

So for me its very very important to understand how spread fluctuates in every trading hour, every day, on holidays,etc.

I may have drinked a bit much champagne now but i`m certainly
Quote
a lot brighter than that
, so Happy New Year guys!
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #816
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:16pm Dec 31, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I know spread is sized according to volume = number of ticks / time But i dont know how it was so low even if the market moves normally.Ok except the last days of 2013, but between x-mas and last day it moved pretty much normally, with good volume, maybe some people didnt traded them, but i pointed out earlier that speculators make up only ~15% of the market.So the volume was ok in my point of view, but the spread did got pretty low. So i can only explain this by how you said it that the brokers lure the people to trade {quote} Yeah its...
I'm coming to the conclusion that you are talking about something other than the actual spread, because what you speak of in terms of the spread makes no sense to me.

What does a doji vs a long candle have to do with spread?

Anyways, look at this http://fxtrade.oanda.com/why/spreads/recent

Big woop. The spread has done fuck all in general except for those spikes which are probably during Asia (if I had to guess and not look into it properly).

You can have a perfectly miniscule spread and still have zero desire to enter a trade if there is no movement in the market. If your system is "overly spread sensitive" in shitty forex-land then you are going to have a bad time. Spread is just one part of more important factors, and in general the spread is usually the least interesting thing about a market for 99% of the time. This isn't penny stocks with a fucktonne wide tick spread.

Explain.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #817
  • Dec 31, 2013 10:52pm Dec 31, 2013 10:52pm
Dont wanna say it but surely there is a must in this. Volume? Volume whot?
  • #818
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:21pm Dec 31, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting nubcake
What does a doji vs a long candle have to do with spread?
A doji is a no movement candle, so 99% of the time a doji candle will have low spread, while a long candle will most likely have a high spread.If my pattern would be for example a morning star with a doji in the middle, it really important to choose to enter on the doji, when the spread is less, than enter after the doji is over, and the new candle will be a long reversal candle just in like any morning star pattern.The long candle will have a higher spread.

Attached Image


So techically your odds dont change, but your RR does, by that i mean the fact that a high spread distorts your reward because it gets substracted, so if youd have a nice 1.2 : 1 rr on a normal morning star pattern, and a 50-50 because lets assume its random ,then the expectancy is 0.1

However if the spread is huge, then that might reduce the reward to 1:1 because the net reward = the original reward - spread, so in this case the expectancy is 0

Its a tremendously important factor to consider the spread in the equation, i dont know why you guys act like i`m talking some weird thing here, when in fact this can be considered basic money management
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #819
  • Edited 11:32pm Dec 31, 2013 11:22pm | Edited 11:32pm
Quoting the redlion
I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing of certain assets, if in...
...my 21 cents and 7 big bucks..randomlesssss

1...on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency?

Justification: statistics. I would argue to say market efficiency, not inefficiency when stat is in the game. Or whatever.


2...Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market?

Statistics. Stats. Stats.

3. In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing of certain assets, if in fact such inefficiencies occur. What makes any of us well informed?

Arbitrage. Best business.
Fixed trade. Doable on free market. I have done good job with arbitrage for my house. As physical fook, you cant do anything with that.

Information. You can again explore and define your Information with statistics.
Otherwizze you need a good friend in laandan. Laaandan cocksuckers know the game.

4. What makes any of us well informed?
A good friend which is called a laandan cocksucker and whit whom you like to drink a beer or 7.
Or one tries to do a good statistical work.

5. why have you dismissed Efficient Market Hypothesis?

One knows when statistics is done.

6. ...or how exactly have you come to the conclusion that random walk is incorrect?

Statistics.


Building a well behaved pigz.
  • #820
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:50pm Dec 31, 2013 11:50pm
Ok so we wasted enough time to figure out that the market can be predicted or not.Assuming that the majority of us agrees that price can be predicted, including me (althought i like to predict only segments of price, by patterns, because i think that price can be predicted, but not always, so i only pick out patterns and predict only them), lets try and figure out now how can we predict the price.

Apart from Magix's attempt to draw a few rectangles on a chart, which i dont criticize if he is succesful with it, then i`m happy for him, but its time to predict the market in the real sense with mathematical tools.

So is anyone of you designed a self adapting algorithm which adapts itself to the market and predicts the market relying on past data, but also correcting itself when the data becomes invalid, thus becoming an artificcial intelligence which reads the market, learns the market and then attempts to predict it like for example a neural network would do it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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