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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #761
  • Dec 31, 2013 1:43am Dec 31, 2013 1:43am
Quoting Magix
With a tight channel, this has the ear mark of something good in the making. Just not sure which direction yet. Expectations look like this: {image}
Price rejection and bounce off DTEMA...

What's on deck?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #762
  • Dec 31, 2013 3:50am Dec 31, 2013 3:50am
Quoting charvo
no problem, i live call that your EU short 1.38 with sl 1.3815 will fail. reason is simple: the fake up yesterday was almost 1.39. however, your trade plan is great, since a loss will only cost u 15 pips. if it worked, it'll bring hundreds of pips i guess. let's see. my TE has my own LIVE trades. {quote}
Wrong time of day sadly, direction held for a while, but didn't really move, then news sent e verything crazy.

Add yourself to my M15 journal, I post most of my trades live in there, 6 wins in row sdo far

Just checked the chart, 2 more pips on the SL and you'd be up nicely sucks.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #763
  • Dec 31, 2013 5:00am Dec 31, 2013 5:00am
wayhay Turveyd, all the best for 2014, I see no one took you up on your offer lol, what d'ya expect. But then again this room is for predicting.
If I was trading I would of shown you some little trades, and if I start scalping in new year I might come back and show you
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #764
  • Dec 31, 2013 5:08am Dec 31, 2013 5:08am
Quoting Proximus
Sorry if this may sound offtopic, but did anyone noticed that the spread fluctuation was really low in the past 1 or 1.5 weeks? What can cause this? I`m sorry i must ask this, since this adds even to my predicting abilities, low spread = high success, doesnt matter how well you predict the market, you have to predict the spread associated with it too, unless you cant really trade that well. My point is that i measured for 3 days the average daily spread and it was unusually low, compared to the past months daily averages.If so then this is the best...
Proximus, no offence but I thought you were a lot brighter than that.. Spread drops when not much is happening it is solely to lure people, It happens every day not just holidays. I have traded holidays in the past and Mondays and Fridays but you will find the big boys normally leave these times alone.
yes the markets do move on these days and it is fun to trade but I don't think one should have a method where the spread can reak havoc, Trade well and all the best for 2014
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #765
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:05am Dec 31, 2013 6:05am
Quoting billytt
wayhay Turveyd, all the best for 2014, I see no one took you up on your offer lol, what d'ya expect. But then again this room is for predicting. If I was trading I would of shown you some little trades, and if I start scalping in new year I might come back and show you
Lol Magix's been posting some, 100% rookie trades, epic fail at attracting new investors lol, he ribbed my method, whenhe hasn't even got 1 lol

Good to have the master back dude, feel free to post them in my journal.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #766
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:12am Dec 31, 2013 6:12am
Wow Proximus, your all over the net asking about spreads... noticed you pop up on different forums and within FF asking about it.

Mate you need to research a little more about bid/ask, volume/liquidity, main session hours etc and how it relates to a chart.
When are the big boys playing?
How is the market moving?
Why is it moving faster here and not there?
Why is it bouncing off a certain line?

Bring up a clean chart and just watch it.

Forget about indicators and candle formations for now and zoom out - find points that have made big moves - Trace back through the chart and see if anything is common?

I know i got a little off topic due to you only asking about spread but it really is true what they say in almost every trading book you can find. Learn the basics then move forward one step at a time.

It wasn't till i took everything off my chart i could actually see things happening.

Then learn about Support/Resistance, Supply and Demand, Order flow etc....

Use the search tool for people like Darkstar, wmd, james16, ghous, redsword11.... (god i could keep going) and read only what they write... ignore everything else. Use google or better yet, invest some $$ in a forex book rather than ask questions. You never know what horsesh*t your getting fed.

Now im completely off topic and i apologise.


Good luck to you buddy.
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.......
  • #767
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:12am Dec 31, 2013 6:12am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Proximus, no offence but I thought you were a lot brighter than that.. Spread drops when not much is happening it is solely to lure people, It happens every day not just holidays. I have traded holidays in the past and Mondays and Fridays but you will find the big boys normally leave these times alone. yes the markets do move on these days and it is fun to trade but I don't think one should have a method where the spread can reak havoc, Trade well and all the best for 2014

So Proximus who believes the market to be random, is talking about predicting the market, then predicting the spread like it has meaning, only scalpers care about the spread, so he's a scalper.

Then to top it off, claiming that unless you use spread prediction, you can't be trading well, implying he is a good trader lol

He doesn't even understand the basics ffs.

This is why people fall out with me, they hate it when I call them on there BS.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #768
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:19am Dec 31, 2013 6:19am
Quoting billytt
I see no one took you up on your offer lol, what d'ya expect.
I'll predict some hypothetical price for ya.

For the USDJPY chart I expect price to drop to the green line and bounce away up to the red line before it touches the yellow line (SL). As for the others, I expect the price to move to the red line before it touches the yellow line.

Lets see.
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  • #769
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:25am Dec 31, 2013 6:25am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} I'll predict some hypothetical price for ya. For the USDJPY chart I expect price to drop to the green line and bounce away up to the red line before it touches the yellow line (SL). As for the others, I expect the price to move to the red line before it touches the yellow line. Lets see. {image} {image} {image}

You've got some weird mojo going on and your predictions work way more often than not, and pretty accurately to.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #770
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:30am Dec 31, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You've got some weird mojo going on and your predictions work way more often than not, and pretty accurately to.
MK1 human eyeball
  • #771
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:34am Dec 31, 2013 6:34am

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Lol Magix's been posting some, 100% rookie trades, epic fail at attracting new investors lol, he ribbed my method, whenhe hasn't even got 1 lol Good to have the master back dude, feel free to post them in my journal.
master ????? <<<< me. master bater more like it
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #772
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:37am Dec 31, 2013 6:37am
Quoting Ozzie Taz
Wow Proximus, your all over the net asking about spreads... noticed you pop up on different forums and within FF asking about it. Mate you need to research a little more about bid/ask, volume/liquidity, main session hours etc and how it relates to a chart. When are the big boys playing? How is the market moving? Why is it moving faster here and not there? Why is it bouncing off a certain line? Bring up a clean chart and just watch it. Forget about indicators and candle formations for now and zoom out - find points that have made big moves - Trace...

well said, I cannot say anything about the people you mentioned, but again well said, have a good 2014
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #773
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:38am Dec 31, 2013 6:38am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So Proximus who believes the market to be random, is talking about predicting the market, then predicting the spread like it has meaning, only scalpers care about the spread, so he's a scalper. Then to top it off, claiming that unless you use spread prediction, you can't be trading well, implying he is a good trader lol He doesn't even understand the basics ffs. This is why people fall out with me, they hate it when I call them on there BS.
and that's why I luv you, (not in a gay way) ex commando + free lancer, dead hard macho man , only looks gay lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #774
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:43am Dec 31, 2013 6:43am
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} I'll predict some hypothetical price for ya. For the USDJPY chart I expect price to drop to the green line and bounce away up to the red line before it touches the yellow line (SL). As for the others, I expect the price to move to the red line before it touches the yellow line. Lets see. {image} {image} {image}

I didn't mean you have a go lol, a lot of people have a go at turveyd yet he posts his trades good and bad and tells how he does it
.
As for your charts I haven't actually looked but having just looked online at u/j but I think something similar to you..
Right now it is 1499 I think it might drop about 20 pips then go north 100, if it doesn't it will be plan B
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #775
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:47am Dec 31, 2013 6:47am
Quoting billytt
{quote} and that's why I luv you, (not in a gay way) ex commando + free lancer, dead hard macho man , only looks gay lol

Your a Brit, feels slightly worried and starts only walking sideways in case your a giver and/or a receiver LOL



Planning to take a year off woman ( this will fail, always does ), wasn't planning on switching teams but it's good to know the option is there if needs be LOL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #776
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:51am Dec 31, 2013 6:51am
Quoting billytt
{quote} I didn't mean you have a go lol, a lot of people have a go at turveyd yet he posts his trades good and bad and tells how he does it . As for your charts I haven't actually looked but having just looked online at u/j but I think something similar to you.. Right now it is 1499 I think it might drop about 20 pips then go north 100, if it doesn't it will be plan B

Don't worry GDR's 1 of my mates, and about the only person I trust isn't a BSing scammer.


Seriously newbies out there, if your trying to work out who's real and who's a BSer, listen to GDR32 he's strangely the real deal ( completely MAD also )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #777
  • Dec 31, 2013 6:56am Dec 31, 2013 6:56am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So Proximus who believes the market to be random, is talking about predicting the market, then predicting the spread like it has meaning, only scalpers care about the spread, so he's a scalper. Then to top it off, claiming that unless you use spread prediction, you can't be trading well, implying he is a good trader lol He doesn't even understand the basics ffs. This is why people fall out with me, they hate it when I call them on there BS.
It is very hard to break habits. This thread shows that people are emotionally attached to their methods. I don't think any method is better or worse than another, but without knowing how often a set up works over a large sample size, ultimately, we continue to guess.

Magix has stated that he will average into a negative position, as time is indeed a random event to the retail trader.

Proximus has not stated anything that I could see...mind you, my vision is not what it used to be......he does think the market is random, and I agree. Well, actually no one can argue that it is not random. Non-random would mean nailing down price AND time. No one will even attempt that.

Turveyd, do you feel that your method has any predicting qualities?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #778
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:00am Dec 31, 2013 7:00am
Notice the language used by some predictors taking up Turv's challenge.

Lots of use of the words...."might" and "could", some use of the words "should"

No one is using the word....WILL. As in price WILL do this or that.

The reason is that no one knows what price will do, if they are honest about it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #779
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:13am Dec 31, 2013 7:13am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is very hard to break habits. This thread shows that people are emotionally attached to their methods. I don't think any method is better or worse than another, but without knowing how often a set up works over a large sample size, ultimately, we continue to guess. Magix has stated that he will average into a negative position, as time is indeed a random event to the retail trader. Proximus has not stated anything that I could see...mind you, my vision is not what it used to be......he does think the market is random, and I agree. Well,...

Yep, vaguely insulting someones method in jest ( Magix ) despite the fact it's a method he originally learned from well me, turned into a hate crime, which is interesting.

I don't know exactly when the market will turn, so in order not to miss I prefer 1 order early then a 2nd at the ideal price, so I too average in kinda, although I treat them as seperate trades, just gets over R:R calc issues.

Proximus's " since this adds even to my predicting abilities, low spread = high success, doesnt matter how well you predict the market, you have to predict the spread associated with it too, unless you cant really trade that well. " That last statement annoyed me, he's talking about something he doesn't understand, like it has meaning then stating everyone who doesn't isn't a good trader, WTF!

It's not random, it's complicated, at the candle level it's pretty damn near random, which is why nobody should be trying to trade off candles singulary.

Depends on what you class as predicting, as stated I've got a area the market should turn back with trend near for instance, but it's a 10pip area for the best part, not a 0.00 pip exact it'll turn on this arrgghhh!! Current revision I'm approx 3 weeks in, but it's looking like a keeper, 6 live trades, 0 losers, 100's of live demo trades testing it approx 80% win rate, just got to knock the stupid gamble trades out of myself and I'm golden!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #780
  • Dec 31, 2013 7:19am Dec 31, 2013 7:19am
Quoting jmn5611
Notice the language used by some predictors taking up Turv's challenge. Lots of use of the words...."might" and "could", some use of the words "should" No one is using the word....WILL. As in price WILL do this or that. The reason is that no one knows what price will do, if they are honest about it.

I prefer Should, ie you pretty sure, but never going to be 100% ofcourse as stuff changes we can't see.

There all abit, market might go up, or it might go down, but what ever happens I'll claim I got it right for my likings.

Magix got a +5 pips on the 1, being really nice as a spike to get that, then another went against him, no SL so he might get to have held through that to claim he'd be in profit soon. Not ideal times to trade, and a sample of 2 isn't enough.

If we all shared live trade setups, a) we'd know who to listen to, b) others might learn from those peoples setups c) it would stop losers teaching losers to some degree.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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