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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #701
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:19am Dec 30, 2013 11:19am
Quoting billytt
{quote} {image} magix, forget the long past data on chart , I have high lighted a top and bottom (easy part) one or both will def be hit. also your chart,,,,, look at all the inside bars and look what happened after, this is predictability but not 100%, I am only saying not trying to be a smart arse, good trading

This is just the immediate frame of reference.

I have my topside targets built, same as bottom side support.

Just because we haven't reached either, doesn't mean we won't...just means you have to wait a little longer.

Would you buy into tops and sell into bottoms?

How and what do you use to define them?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #702
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:28am Dec 30, 2013 11:28am
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is just the immediate frame of reference. I have my topside targets built, same as bottom side support. Just because we haven't reached either, doesn't mean we won't...just means you have to wait a little longer. Would you buy into tops and sell into bottoms? How and what do you use to define them? {image}

if that was aimed to me,, Yes in the past I would of bought into tops and sold into bottoms, like I am always saying and drumming into students heads, the market is CONTRADICTORY. I had my methods of trading ... inside bars/outside bars- open range breakout- ma cross over- levels,and a couple of others which I have now sold so no comment.
I was going to try nubcakes shit method but I think he was joking plus I got no power lead for pc in bathroom.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #703
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:34am Dec 30, 2013 11:34am
Magix, I forgot to add... I am speaking hour time frame I call tops /bottoms where they actually closed and only when no range was going. I could try and show you. my main trade pc is closed down but I can I can access charts on this lap top
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #704
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:34am Dec 30, 2013 11:34am
Quoting Vachus
What are you all doing here , during market trading hours ? ....
I personally trade multiple pairs so it doesnt matter what time i trade them, they are always good.Euro between 8 and 16 hours GMT, and JPY,AUD,NZD around 17 to 7 GMT, so i`m covered for the entire day

Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Holiday season, weekend is extended until Thursday! Low volume and jumpy comes to mind, role on next week.
Yeah, market will get back to normal after january 6, until then, its not good to trade, but i will trade anyway.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #705
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:40am Dec 30, 2013 11:40am
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is just the immediate frame of reference. I have my topside targets built, same as bottom side support. Just because we haven't reached either, doesn't mean we won't...just means you have to wait a little longer. Would you buy into tops and sell into bottoms? How and what do you use to define them? {image}
If I may ask, since we have agreed that the timing is a random event, if you get in early, and are confident price will go in your direction at some point, how do you manage draw down?

For me, I risk 1.5% per trade and scale into the trend when it goes where I think it will.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #706
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:40am Dec 30, 2013 11:40am
Quoting billytt
{quote} if that was aimed to me,, Yes in the past I would of bought into tops and sold into bottoms, like I am always saying and drumming into students heads, the market is CONTRADICTORY. I had my methods of trading ... inside bars/outside bars- open range breakout- ma cross over- levels,and a couple of others
I don't get your idea of "contradictory", in this context.

Nor do I understand, "HAD", as in methods of trading.

You do or you don't? They consistently make sense or they won't?

I do understand the progress and evolution of the trader. Hell, I even give all new indies a whirl knowing that they are most likely just a simple regurgitation of the same information that can be provided by any or all predecessors. What can I say, I like blinkey lights and shiny objects.

There still has to be a frame of reference.

I am not saying that everybody needs to trade the same methods as I have outlined here, or that these are the only way to analyze markets. Was just my arguments For the price-predictability assumption.

If it was, Time, or Market predictability, I'd have to flip to another chart(s)...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #707
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:41am Dec 30, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I personally trade multiple pairs so it doesnt matter what time i trade them, they are always good.Euro between 8 and 16 hours GMT, and JPY,AUD,NZD around 17 to 7 GMT, so i`m covered for the entire day {quote} Yeah, market will get back to normal after january 6, until then, its not good to trade, but i will trade anyway.
I trade every market day as well. As long as it is 24 hours long.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #708
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:45am Dec 30, 2013 11:45am
Quoting billytt
Magix, I forgot to add... I am speaking hour time frame I call tops /bottoms where they actually closed and only when no range was going. I could try and show you. my main trade pc is closed down but I can I can access charts on this lap top
Market is fractal in nature.

The only thing that changes are the ranges and point of reference.

I had previously posted the same pattern on the Weekly superimposed over the daily.

All brokers need to start the Hourly, on the Hour and same for all indicators down. After the hourly, it gets a bit dodgy. H4, through weekly are typically broker market open dependent. A look at them will give an idea, the faster give more of an idea of absolutes.

Weekly:
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #709
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:45am Dec 30, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Does the water actually swirl the opposite way depending on which hemisphere your in, or is that just a myth, see got to consider all these issues.
I see you have a number of haters on here..

Why is that?

And in keeping with the topic, do you think the market can be predicted? We have established that price can be predicted in the short term to a limited degree. We still do not have any stats on that, however. How about time? Do you think timing can be predicted?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #710
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:48am Dec 30, 2013 11:48am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Really? Can you? And I don't just mean, drawing lines, but actual consistent pattern recognition based on simple supply and demand... Take some time Turv. Throw out that steaming pile of shit you call a chart, clean it up a little and listen to what the market says. Then, build your own data base and statistical analysis...I don't need a study to tell me how something works, simple observation is enough. I don't know dick about combustion engines nor transmissions and don't question this when I need to go some place. I Just hops into my...

So your telling me you can only draw pretty lines after the event like most then, got it.


come on live charts post them, with your prediction, any TF, with your SL we will assume tp same as SL to be fair, and make it easier.

i've done my maths 80-85% win rate, I'm willing to prove it, so step up or shut up.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #711
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:48am Dec 30, 2013 11:48am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} I can pull out a chart, and show you What assumptions I follow regarding the market, I can talk to you about my assumptions on the current state of the world and give you calculations on running standard deviations or GARCH 1,1 models, then tell you how I calculate cost, roll over rates, currency correlations and how i diversify to maintain a net exposure to x or y currency......however "how can i truly have confidence in this set up if I don't really know how often it works" as jmn5611 brilliantly pointed it out. what justification do I...
We are trying to drill down to the essence of the argument. Hopefully these smart folks on here can get to paydirt!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #712
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:50am Dec 30, 2013 11:50am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I don't get your idea of "contradictory", in this context. Nor do I understand, "HAD", as in methods of trading. You do or you don't? They consistently make sense or they won't? I do understand the progress and evolution of the trader. Hell, I even give all new indies a whirl knowing that they are most likely just a simple regurgitation of the same information that can be provided by any or all predecessors. What can I say, I like blinkey lights and shiny objects. There still has to be a frame of reference. I am not saying that everybody...
HAD as in I no longer trade, been there done it, I advise and send my colleague charts.
Contradictory as in ,,as you pointed out. It is normal for a pair to move to a resistance /support level and then reverse. NOT EVERY TIME that is contradictory.
some traders trade the breakout.
I spent a few years visiting FF and a few other sites collating information and like you said ,,, every trading method or suggestion I saw I investigated, even new traders have ideas and 8 year old girls, I hope this satisfies your question, I will still be around hopefully until my pal shows up
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #713
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:50am Dec 30, 2013 11:50am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If I may ask, since we have agreed that the timing is a random event, if you get in early, and are confident price will go in your direction at some point, how do you manage draw down? For me, I risk 1.5% per trade and scale into the trend when it goes where I think it will.
I don't.

If the market swings against me, I exit the trade. Because of the speed of play I am in, there is no management, there is a retrace and I try to nugget the least amount of loss on these trades. A lot of times, this works out to be spread, or reasonably close.

If I don't see what I need to see, I don't trade.

Nobody is holding a gun to my head, so it is of no consequence if all I get to do is analyze historical areas and see where I missed the mark.

I do scale in, but typically in reverse as cost averaging and close out when I see the market spike. In terms, it is always darkest before the light, it too is always brightest before the night. There is always that one candle that makes the major move, I look to exit on these and re-enter as market allows.

I don't confuse my trading with statistical analysis nor numbers. It is a video game, not a math quiz for me.

Kinda like people who set their alarm clocks 10 minutes fast to play mind fuck...why not just set your clock correct and alarm 10 minutes prior...



If you find something that works, stick to it until you either find something better or until it stops working.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #714
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:52am Dec 30, 2013 11:52am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So your telling me you can only draw pretty lines after the event like most then, got it. come on live charts post them, with your prediction, any TF, with your SL we will assume tp same as SL to be fair, and make it easier. i've done my maths 80-85% win rate, I'm willing to prove it, so step up or shut up.
First off, go back and read through my previous posts. You are still missing the forest through the trees, it has already been done and mapped out.

Second off.

Go fuck yourself.

I'm finished with you.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #715
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:54am Dec 30, 2013 11:54am
Ok i see how nice you predict or try to predict the high liquidity pairs.But what about a low liquidity exotic pair like CHFTRY , can anyone predict this one?

Also how unfortunate that you can still observe my "U" shaped pattern in this pair aswell, even if its a very low traded pair:

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This will test your predicting ability since this pair doesnt follow normal S/R rules, and yet it has a few patterns hidden there, so inbetween patterns i have to assume its random-like.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #716
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:55am Dec 30, 2013 11:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I see you have a number of haters on here.. Why is that? And in keeping with the topic, do you think the market can be predicted? We have established that price can be predicted in the short term to a limited degree. We still do not have any stats on that, however. How about time? Do you think timing can be predicted?

Nubs is well Nubs, and Magix gets easily offended when asked for live charts and predictions so it seems lol


time is a factor, markets opening and closing, news.


I am more of a direction is up, no idea how long for, get aboard and see what happens kinda guy, I stay out of news the best I can, way to much news affecting forex and turning its direction to time much.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #717
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:56am Dec 30, 2013 11:56am
the biggest major tool I used (not actually a tool) but statistics and percentages/odds this did help. ask the poker players.
when the market is running to form as in non random everything is good but it is good to have stats /odds pave the way
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #718
  • Dec 30, 2013 11:58am Dec 30, 2013 11:58am
Quoting Magix
{quote} First off, go back and read through my previous posts. You are still missing the forest through the trees, it has already been done and mapped out. Second off. Go fuck yourself. I'm finished with you.

So no to live charts then lol


Your becoming a know it all troll with no way to back it up anyway, so agreed goodbye!


Drama queens!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #719
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:01pm Dec 30, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting Proximus
Ok i see how nice you predict or try to predict the high liquidity pairs.But what about a low liquidity exotic pair like CHFTRY , can anyone predict this one? Also how unfortunate that you can still observe my "U" shaped pattern in this pair aswell, even if its a very low traded pair: {image} {image} {image} {image} This will test your predicting ability since this pair doesnt follow normal S/R rules, and yet it has a few patterns hidden there, so inbetween patterns i have to assume its random-like.
a low liquidity pair ? , major pairs was more preferable due to making more money simple as that... but those charts you just put up .... look at the inside bars, look what happened after
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #720
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:01pm Dec 30, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So no to live charts then lol Your becoming a know it all troll with no way to back it up anyway, so agreed goodbye! Drama queens!
Turv,

You are a perfect example of the old adage...

I bang my head against a wall because it feels good when I stop.

Scroll back a page or 3, you will see live charts.

Because you fail to see what is right before your eyes isn't my issue...it's yours.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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